Thursday, 23 February 2017

Getting there 2017-2020

 
 
Phew! We're done
 
All the predictions for 2017-2020 are up. A few other currencies might follow later in 2018 but nothing for now.
 
What we do hope to do in this phase is to have regular updates rather than just the annual ones; in some respects a more traditional blog approach. But the purpose will be to break down the strengths and weaknesses in the techniques and charts.
 
I look forward to an easier life.
 

Argentine Peso 2017-2020


 

 
The big change in the official Peso rate happened at the end of 2015, although 2016 can hardly be said to have been great. And of course we are talking the official rate- with inflation at 40% who knows what the street rate might be. The main question for the next four years is surely is the Argentine Peso going the way of the Bolivar? And of course there is the secondary question as to how the expected financial events of 2019-20 will affect the currency.
2017
 
January and February 2017 have actually seen some minor  improvement in the official rate. Although it is still lower than in October 2016 so we are not talking a significant change of sentiment. 
March to May sees a long term shift in the currency and perhaps the central bank.  The period is therefore interesting. There is some volatility coupled with continued inflation but there is also confusion over whether the currency has found its level. Yet all this is accompanied by a medium term phase that lasts until 2020 which is highly negative for the currency’s a value. The only question is has the currency found its  bottom already and will stay there until 2020 or are there significantly more falls to come?
June to August is a mixed period that carried on much of the themes above. There may be a short term turning point now but volatility as a whole seems reduced.
September and October are potentially better months – but there is unlikely to be much uplift just a sense of treading water.
November and December see the picture heightened again. Volatility returns though investor activity may be cautious so perhaps the volatility will be mild. A more significant turning point is reached now as the currency starts a new 12 year cycle. However the indicator referred to in January and February may override this.
 
2018
 
January and February 2018 are moderately positive months for the currency, within the broader difficulties- indeed there is a tendency for values to overshoot.  There may however be constraints on trading which offset this.
March to May includes a very interesting indicator. A big shift in investor sentiment which may even be a major shock. Inflationary tendencies continue  in the same vein as in 2017. The mood of January and February is repeated but with perhaps a sort term turning point
June to August is a culmination of the themes to date. Indicators of the major bottom referred to in earl 2017 continue, as does the focus on inflation and the investor shake-up conditions.
This could be the most fundamental period of the 4 years for the currency.
September and October are similar though somewhat moderated. Again the positive mood of January and February recurs with another short term turning point. The matter of public debt is particularly important now and there may be interest rate adaptations.  
November and December is a more restrained period. Although a lot happens it is more likely to be at the granular level rather than major. Investors are cautious and trading conditions difficult so little movement is likely.
 
2019
 
January and February 2019 are unlikely to be significant value wise. Some of the restrictions that characterised the end of 2018 continue and for the most part other indicators offset.
March to June is for the most part a positive time though investors may once again be destabilised. The inflationary environment remains unchanged.
July to September also sees a return to the longer term conditions that mirror the value trends of 2017-8.
Although it is a mixed time generally with little major trend, there is likely to be a focus on this currency now.
October and November, while not seeing a let up in the longer trends, so suggest a short term boost of some sorts. 
This continues into December. It is the last of the phase that started in 2016 and there is some optimism now. Although we aren’t looking at major rises, this might be a good time for the currency.
2020 
2020 is of course an interesting year for currencies anyway. But if January and February are indications of the year the focus will be elsewhere. Indeed there is a possibility that the currency could make big gains now. Certainly big movements in value are likely.
The position is accentuated in March to July, when caution is thrown to the wind by investors.
Although we are in generally a difficult time, and some off days are likely  I see this as been a generally highly positive for the currency.
August to September     is somewhat more moderated than the last few months but there is still a positive trend. Also noteworthy is the indication that a long term shake up the currency is on the cards- challenging long held perspectives.
October and November continue this and if anything accentuated any movements. All in all an interesting time.
December is also positive but quieter as things play out elsewhere. This might mean the new environment is heralded by a pull back at the year end, but overall 2020 could be the currency’s year.
 

Argentina 2017-2020


 

 

Of the South American countries only Venezuela has had as tough a time as Argentina in 2016. Many of the anticipated benefits of the new president Macri have yet to be evidenced particularly a stop to the spiralling inflation.
 2017
January and February 2017 are actually moderately good months in the country. Of course it is summer time and perhaps some of the pressures are off. The people struggle on – they are truly all in it together The exception is the leadership which feels as if it has a heavy burden on its shoulders and in conscious of the budgetary and inflationary constraints.
March to May is similar. The pressures on the leadership remain, especially in relation to the mix of inertia and inflation. Although there are increasing opportunity to make changes which might just be enough to provide some positive news in this period.
June to August is a quieter phase. Inflation and budget constraints continue but there is far less development in any direction now and less focus on the leadership. Just another boring phase.
September and October, however, are more interesting. Although there are still budget issues and the inertia continues, the inflation might be tapering off.  However just when the leadership has some good news to impart the people are getting fed up with them.
 November and December are this months when there is a brief return for the government to the pressures of earlier in the year. There is a sense of the country moving into new territory and having reached the worst point in terms of difficulties. There may be positive news on debts.
2018 
January and February 2018 is mixed with some disconnect between leadership and people and we haven’t seen the back of the inertia quite yet either. However there may be some big surprises and some of these may be positive.
This phase of positive news continues into the next few months. March to May sees the beginnings of a shift within the country with a focus on the people and with things looking reasonably positive for the leadership.
However there are new difficulties and hardships that can create pockets of difficulties now - there are indications of harsh attempts to undermine policies.
June to August is a mixed period. The issue of inflation is key now- but we will need to look at the currency forecast and maybe even be closer to the date to fully understand whether the signs point to significant escalation in inflation or the end of it- but carrying on as before is not an option.
September and October  follow from the previous 3 months, and there are signs that some very crucial turning points are reached. Changes can happen surprisingly quickly in this phase.
November and December are more mixed and the year end might be characterised by some difficulties between government and people. 
2019 
January and February 2019 is a period of opportunity. The indicators we talked about in mid 2018 return so the focus may be on the inflationary position. However for the most part the other signs are better, there is opportunity some financial stability ( though not without the odd outbreak of problems) and far less focus on the leadership which in this environment must be a good sign. 
March to June is mixed with some of the indicators from the early months continuing and the picture looking positive for the people. However there may be a return to inertia at the same time as inflation is addressed.
July to September is not a period when much progress is made. It is a time when the positives and negatives tend to offset and moving in any direction is hard. However this is misleading as great progress may be made behind the scenes.
October and November see the focus once more on inflation and debts ( again we need to understand what this means for the currency to get the full picture).
But in general this looks to be an extraordinarily positive time for the country and for the government.
December is both more difficult – there are once again signs that there may be some unpleasant actions and although the people may end the year on a high the government is still making adjustments to its policies and programmes.
2020
 
Of course January and February 2020 is a time of major focus. And while Argentina does not seem to be at the eye of the storm, it is clearly affected. The financial conditions that characterised 2019 continue though there is some very positive news on medium term economics. However there are lots of detailed adjustments and the result may be hardship and possibly pushback from the people.
March to June sees pushback more likely as there is more energy and less restriction. But at least some of the picture must be improving as the people are aligned with the government now and indeed there is positive news regarding the country as it adjusts its position within the world.
August and September is more tricky again, but there are no new developments.
October and November are again both intense but also potentially positive months for the people despite ongoing issues of inertia. 
Shifts, perhaps not significant but nevertheless interesting,  in the country’s position continue.
While the 2020 trends don’t end in December they are drastically reduced and this leads to some shocks for the people and a moderately tricky period.
However the year end itself is noticeably uneventful when compared with other nations.
 
 
 
 
 

Wednesday, 22 February 2017

Brazilian Real 2017-2020



 

Fortunately I don’t have the same blindspot with the Real as I do with Brazil itself and as I predicted the Real had a good 2016. So good it has even strengthened after the dollar rally (though it did experience a short fall in November). The currency is now back at its 2014 levels, but with so much potential change in the country where will it go next.
2017 
January and February 2017 have so far been moderately positive for the currency. There is certainly enough momentum to keep this going for the rest of February though we are not looking for any significant further gain.
March to May is likely to be a more volatile phase. Overall I would expect little trend, but there may be a risk of some sharp falls in the currency’s value due to unexpected news.
June to August becomes more moderate again. If anything we could expect some surprising news on the upside. But generally it is less volatile and the trend more positive.
September and October is rather mixed though not especially volatile. On balance this suggests that the currency will tread water. The only exception is the right at the end of the period which is vulnerable to short term falls.
November and December are for the most part positive and may well be the best period for the currency once the first half of November has passed.
I’d expect global focus on the currency now as a key turning point is reached.
 
2018 
January and February 2018 are however more difficult months. There is pressure on the currency and falls are distinctly likely although there is perhaps some relief in terms of expectations.
March to May is a bit mixed, and have some indicators that reflect the previous June- August. A difficult period to call and may be characterise once again by big swings as the short term indicators are actually positive whele the longer terms ones are harsher.
June to August is a period of drama for the currency. Shades of the early part of the year return and are even more extreme now as there are some shocks. The period may well see another key longer term reversal.
September and October are much like June to August, there is still a lot of pressure on the currency and concern for investors.  However it is not all negative and one again it is likely that positive expectation will overcome much of the negativity. If there is a trend it should be down but the offset from this positive expectation might lead to the currency being flat over the 2 months.
November and December see a return to the more intense conditions and with major shocks and restrictions this could be a difficult time. There are positives to be found so we are not looking at a straightforward downward trend but it’s not great either.
2019 
January and February 2019  are mixed and in many ways a continuation of 2018, but there is a glimmer of light as some of the heavier indicators reduce to be replaced by some more supportive ones. The only question is whether the conditions now may be significantly inflationary, in which case further falls are likely, but these are likely to be inflation driven rather than event driven.
March to June is a very mixed period, There are a lot of offsetting factors which should, on balance, make the currency’s value  relatively flat at this time. Nevertheless there are some indictors of further shocks which might cause outbreaks of volatility again.
July to September sees elements of volatility continue but there are moderated by the surrounding conditions. This is a time of little direction and small shifts rather than big trends or even significant swings.
October and November are milder months all round. This looks like a positive phase for the currency though mega gains are unlikely,
December continues the mood of November but perhaps with some restriction on the amount of trade due to international events. The effect is probably to dampen the trend down as traders wait to see what 2020 will bring.
2020 
 
And, in fact, the whole of 2020 may be rather volatile.
January and February  are not particularly so, however, especially when compared with elsewhere.
On balance this looks a good time for the Real but not an especially noteworthy one.
March to July, however, is noteworthy. Volatility reaches a peak. It is difficult to detect a discernible trend at this time as there is so much happening.  Once again there are some indications of inflationary pressures and the possibility that a one off devaluation is proposed.
August and September see the general themes continuing but it is a more moderated phase than the previous 5 months.
October and November, however, sees a return to the drama and definitely indications that we might be looking at a new level or, indeed, structure for the currency. But this is still in the making.
It is not till the end of December that we will really see the new picture emerging and a consequent big shift in value before the start of 2021.
 

Brazil 2017-2020

 
2016 wasn’t a great year for Brazil, with inflation above target, GDP falling and public debt ( subject to Brazil’s high interest rates) increasing again not to mention the enforced presidential change as Rousseff was removed from office. In theory the picture doesn’t look much better for 2017, but with so much happening elsewhere in the world perhaps Brazil will get off lightly in the end.
Of course as readers will know Brazil is my bĂȘte noire where I consistently fail to get things right so whether this forecast will be worth it is debateable. Anyway, here goes.
2017 
We are almost through January and February 2017 now (20/2). There have been some positive signs that the country is turning the economic corner, but the continuing corruption allegations and proposed austerity reforms could mean this reverses. 
 What we can say is that we are moving into a new 30 year phase in terms of leadership. However there is evidence that the corruption problem has not gone away and that the leadership will continue to be under a cloud for the next year at least. Other than that the period is rather mixed, although the positive economic green shoots may continue they are merely shoots.
June to August is not significantly different, although there may be communication difficulties of restrictions.
September and October are also a continuation of this phase though the focus moves away from the leadership for a while.
However there is likely to be much more going on in terms of policy and growth now. Generally it will be positive although there are some difficulties to overcome.
November and December are quite different in tone. The people may be more assertive though conflict is not necessarily signified. There may be positive signs of sustained growth and improved external relations.
By the end of the year, though, there may be some serious challenges for the leadership as there is an attempt to break away from the past.
2018 
The background picture for 2018 is relatively positive.  However there are many smaller obstacles to overcome.
January and February 2018 see some elements of the population disgruntled and protesting, but this is not too extensive.
Attempts to end certain economic practices and corruption as well as moderate austerity measures have a mixed impact in the short term.  
March to May then sees the issue of leadership corruption and weakness return- there are winners and losers and it is difficult to see much progress being made- inertia seems to be the order of the day.
I don’t see this as a time of much progress even if there is the odd snippet of positive news.
June to August is more difficult for the people as the inertia continues. But it is a better time for the government and there is a change of pushing forward and creating some growth.
September and October are once more tricky times for the leadership – with that continued question mark or cloud over its ability. It should be election time so many issues will surface. There is no clear indicator of change despite the question mark. It is likely that the president will continue but perhaps weakened further.
There is evidence that economic measures are slowly improving matters and restricting the more negative elements which traditionally drag the country down.
The people are slightly unsettled and this might be news worthy on a wide scale. There is certainly a likelihood of the country getting wider exposure now.
 
2019
 
January and February 2019 is a good time for the Brazilian people but a more mixed time for the leadership which remains weakened by  mis-information and/or deception. However it has support to continue
March To June is a another mixed phase, but this time the focus is off the leadership. There are economic ( debt service?) challenges but there is also an unprecedented opportunity to reform some of the more difficult structural problems. There is resistance to this which might be disruptive and it won’t be a straightforward resolution but progress can be made.
July to September is about the people again and brings the country into the limelight for a while.
Although the budget and economic situation is mixed, there are many positives to be taken form this period.
October and November have shades of March to June about them with many of the issues resurfacing. Although there are elements of opposition I would expect this again to be a good period for the people and moderately ok for the government.
December sees this phase of changing the more resistant structures not just continue but reach a peak by the year end. This does put significant pressure back on the leadership but there are definitely upsides to the situation.
2020 
The events of 2020 do not miss Brazil and as early as January and February we can see some budgetary or other resource challenges arising. However the changes that makes to the foundations of the country are actually position. In addition the reforming activity is continuing  and although there are tricky hurdles to cross this might be a good time for the country and its leadership.
March to July is certainly busy. Especially for the people in general. This does put pressure on the leadership as there are people who are not prepared to accept the economic situation  and are prepared to stic their heads above the parapet and say so quite vehemently .
But the signs of progress being made are really quite unequivocal now.
August and September are more like January and February and the pace is slower. However there is a sense of gradual stability returning to the people day to day.
October and November see this all integrated and at least some signs of final economic resolution to some issues. It is not a bad time and relative to many places is quite calm.
A lot of the pressure is off the country by the year end, despite the surrounding financial issues. There can be more progress and a much better resolution of any debt issues- perhaps renegotiation or just a lesser burden. 

Tuesday, 21 February 2017

Venezuelan Bolivar 2017-2020


 To say 2016 was an interesting year for the Bolivar is to severely understate the reality. Extreme inflation led to the Bolivar becoming almost worthless versus the dollar and as I predicted back in 2013 in December (on the 7th ) a new banknote series was introduced with the smallest being 500. Even the largest 20000 was said to be worth only US$5.
2017
 
The ramifications of this continue into 2017 as the deadline for withdrawal of 100s is now 20 February. More unexpected changes could occur. There is still lack of faith in the currency.
March to May sees another turning point and another possible change in the foundations of the currency. The conditions are similar to earlier in the year, it is not yet clear that the bottom has been reached.
June to August us still an unstable period for the currency, and there is some evidence that getting hold of the currency might be quite difficult.
September and October see this becoming a greater issues for the country as a whole rather than just individuals. The possibility that external obligations can’t be met escalates.
November and December see that situation continuing. Although there is some evidence that the picture is beginning to change.
2018 
January and February 2018 though see more problems and the situation may be more intense both locally and globally.
The likelihood is that more changes to the currency may be necessary.
There is a problem with debt obligations
March to May see this continuing but there is a shift in the mood . Things could go either way and there may be some surprises.
June to August is a key period when there are big swings or changes in the situation. The foundations are being transformed and although this is a difficult process it has the potential to improve the situation.
September and October see further shifts and perhaps a hint of what the situation will be by 2021. However the country’s debt obligations remain an issue.
November and December are again full of shocks and surprises but may actually see a fundamental level being reached.
For the first time the currency looks attractive.
 
2019 
2019 is actually a relatively quiet year for the currency.
 
Despite some uncertainty and instability January and February 2019 are definitely calmer and more stable months. Indeed not much change in value is likely at all.
March to June is much the same. In fact the conditions look relatively positive, though not all will be beneficiaries.
 July to September sees another key point when the fundamentals are re-evaluated.
And October and November may herald a new financial environment.
December is the final stage of this lull in the currency’s fortunes.
2020
 
As we know from elsewhere, it is all happening in 2020!
January and February 2020 sees a great swing in the position. The final stage of the long process that started 12 years ago. I would like to say for sure what this means but I don’t think I will be positive until 2019.
March to July continues the theme anyway. The possibility of huge swings in value is definitely there, but it is not so obvious which way these will go. There are definitely signs that the situation is positive, though at this point that seems unlikely.
August and September are more mixed – and echoes of the first two months of the year.
October and November are, as in so many places, the months when things finally get resolved and a new equilibrium is reached.
December seems to be mainly a relatively positive month, although the year end sees a final shift as the currency finds its balance.
 
 

Venezuela 2017-2020


 

It has been difficult to pinpoint exactly what the situation is economically in Venezuela. Indeed Bloomberg.com published an article by Mac Margolis on this very subject this week ( 13/2/2017). Things are bad, but there is much debate on how bad.
It would be nice to have a clearer start point but or purpose is to look at the direction of travel in future. We can still do that, and it is one of the advantages of our technique.
2017
 
January and February 2017 indicate that there are three main themes: strength of the leadership which is now waning, economic inertia and trading difficulties ( no surprise there) and for the moment at least a very unstable populace.
March to May, surprisingly sees some support for the leadership, though this is not reflected at international level. Economic inertia continues, though there is a brief period of positive news which indicates new beginnings. However generally confusion reigns and there are attempts to weaken any dissident voices.
June to August sees the brief spell of hope undermined by confusion continue. There is also a risk of underground movements creating trouble.
Matters relating to oil pricing come to the fore again but the picture for this is merely mixed too. 
September and October see what appears to be the end of the long term strength of the leadership. These two months are mixed ones, full of adjustments, compromises and can kicking. No improvement in conditions can be expected.
Economic inertia continues to the end of the year.
November and December sees the people in a much more assertive mood. Keen to take things into their own hands. There is no evidence of conflict with the government yet though. In fact there might even be some brief good news.
 2018
2018 looks to be a year when protest and confrontation become the norm.
This can be seen as earlier as January and February, when the efforts to improve the trading and budgetary position are tried but little is achieved. This potentially leads to major conflict or disagreement. 
March to May is a critical time. The mood of confusion from 2017 continues and there is likely weakness and corruption associated with the leadership. The leadership may overdo its responses and only serve to add to a feeling of instability.  The people catch the spirit of revolution and there is a shift in mood towards upsetting the status quo. This should be election time if things go as planned – so expect lots of drama around this.
June to August is a continuation of the developments of March to May. There seems to be a bit of a tug of war between two possible directions of leadership.
The country’s identity and core resources are challenged but there may be some short term good news economically.
September and October don’t really have any indications of the picture changing.
If anything disputes become  more intense. There is a sense that the country is being totally shook up.
November and December see the conditions continuing but now the focus seems to be on information and statistics. There may be communication difficulties or restrictions, and certainly heated debate. However there may be some boost from the oil price.
 2019
January and February 2019 sees the focus on communications continuing, with the people speaking out.
There is still a sense of instability amongst the population but it is less dominant than in 2018. What we do see now is a key moment in the country’s history when things are about to be rebuilt. The leadership is still in control but there is increasingly erratic behaviour which reflects badly on the country and creates international problems.
March to June sees more emphasis on both oil trade and also intense activity (which may include conflict). The impetus to overturn the status quo remains strong.
But this period is mixed for the leadership, once again suggesting both support and challenge – there appear to be beneficiaries that continue to support the government despite ongoing weakness/corruption etc.
July to September is once again dominated by the opposing forces. Little headway can be made now as there is no one dominant power. The people who are still demanding change are now the focus of attention with other nations. But their situation is better than in 2017 for example.
October and November actually see the people quite content for a brief while. But the issues relating to the leadership continue. It is almost impossible to have a stable parliament now.
December is interesting as it marks a shift in the identity of the country which affects its resources and trade permanently as a 25 year period comes to an end.
The picture is mixed, there is still a lot of change in the economic arena and still instability at government level. However there is some indication that strength may be available to one group or opposition though this does not seem to favour the people.
 2020
January and February 2020 are the beginning of 12 months of huge change in the country. The indicators are that there will be a complete reinvention. Some of this will be challenging but interestingly the picture is not terrible. It is possible that the country’s natural resources and relative financial independence will be a benefit now. There is huge financial power available.
March to July is less intense than the first two months and again now without some disturbing upheaval, but yet again financial/resource matters are broadly positive- indeed as even more emphasis is on  financial flows rather than financial restriction the position is better than those early months.
August and September sees a return to January and February times. Now there is good news for the leadership but more difficulty for the people.
October and November see the situation reaching a peak as in so many countries.
December is rather different. Here the new environment is characterised by restriction for the people and the start of a new economic position but that means hardship for those holding on to the status quo. There is some possibility  that everything has to end in unpleasant ways in order for the new environment  to flourish.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Mexican Peso 2017-2020

 
 The Mexican Peso wasn’t having a great couple of years anyway. But the election of Trump in early November 2016 really damaged it. Indeed it dropped almost as much in 2 months as it had in the past 2 years.
 2017
Despite a small recovery in January 2017, versus the US Dollar the currency is now worth 50% less than in early 2015. Although there is now a period of uncertainty regarding the timing of any US initiatives, there is nothing to suggest that the Peso’s situation will improve significantly in the next month.
 March to May sees likely further falls as lack of clear future direction for the country’s economy sees investors look elsewhere. Significant volatility is also possible now
June to August sees the pressure lifting somewhat. While I don’t expect any big rises there may at least be some support on the downside. However the volatility may continue.
September and October, on the other hand, see a return to the conditions of March to May. Although there are some longer term stabilising influences, the short terms ones are more tricky. Not a disastrous time for the currency but not a good one either.
November and December may see at least some support though. It isn’t a positive time but at least some of the confusion may have abated and the volatility reduced to small adjustments.
2018 
January and February 2018 see us once more in weakness territory. Despite possible positive interventions it’s another poor period for the Peso.
March to May however is better. There is a focus on the currency now and although there are pressures some of the uncertainty has been lifted for a while.
Despite another short term element of volatility there is definite support for the currency now. Policies seem to be working.
June to August may be one of the best times in the  period to date. A combination of announcements/rates and optimism mean that the balance is positive now. However we aren’t looking at a big recovery just a small upturn in value.
September and October, unfortunately see the old conditions resurfacing, There may still be some positive interventions though and the overall position     while weak may not be as negative as earlier.
November and December continue the themes. There is a great deal of activity in the currency particularly in the middle of this period.  
2019 
January and February 2019 also see a continuance of the themes but the impact is weaker. Now there is definitely some upside and the buyers and sellers look like they are fighting it out so there is no clear long term trend yet- indeed it may rise versus some currencies and fall versus others.
March through to June is also broadly positive. Indeed any movements In value may be bigger than expected as investors overreact.
 But there are some major changes happening now in the background that will alter the currency permanently.  It is unlikely these will manifest yet but we may see their impact before 2020 is out.
July to September is another period when the currency will probably end up much where it started as once more we see the positive and negative sentiments more or less cancelling each other out. There are however some significant structural changes beginning in the currency now.
October and November are actually relatively calm months. Some potential weakness is offset by support. Trading is generally constrained but occasionally there may be central bank trades which boost the currency.
December is a very quiet month. Although there are a lot of minor events there Is little major happening. The only interesting time is right near the year end when significant increase in  money supply could lead to some weakness.
2020 
2020 is another kettle of fish altogether.
Trade seems to be highly managed from the beginning. There are some positive indicators but there are also shocks. Difficult to establish whether this means significant weakness or whether actions taken will protect the currency from the worst.
March to July sees the themes continuing. And the picture looks very mixed. It is worth noting what happens now as this will be a forerunner to events in December.  What appears clear is that this currency is being shaken out of its slumber and is changing its nature profoundly.
August and September see further changes but on balance the currency looks protected now, albeit through quite deliberate actions.
October and November see this reaching a peak and accompanied by changes to rates or even physical currency.
This leaves December. And this is one of the most interesting months for the currency of the whole period. Actions continue and it appears that the currency is radically changed in structure by the end of the year.

Mexico 2017-2020



There are few countries so immediately affected by the new US administration than poor Mexico. Regardless of what happens in the rest of the world, and regardless of how much of a wall gets built we can be sure that Mexico will be affected by new policies. The only question is when and by how much?
 
2017
 
There is little to be said about January and February 2017 as we are already half way through the latter and we know the events of late January well. We know that is Trump gets his way the wall is imminent, and we know that the Mexican president is not impressed after cancelling the trip north. And the fact that this has probably strengthened the Mexican leadership is also not much of a surprise.
March to May is likely to see more surprises from the leadership probably in response to US policy. The subject of restrictions on the people also continues to be a key factor. There is also continued confusion over the economic impact.
There may also be a brief spell of severe difficulty for the people, perhaps relating to the drug cartels or other threats.
This is not long lasting, however and June to August sees a shift in emphasis for the people.  However confusion dominates both economically and in terms of direction.
There may be upsets to industry and other economic activity but the leadership continues strong.
September and October see much of the above mood continuing. But there is a lot more going on in terms of international relations.   The leadership may be outspoken and certainly not acquiescent.
November and December are months of more drama, likely on an international field.  Indeed there appears to be a lot going on now in terms of policy and other decisions. Not all of the government’s actions are acceptable to the people and the people are likely to be the dominant force now.
 
2018 
January and February 2018 are also months when the country and its people are in focus. There is some indication that the people are unsettled and perhaps rebellious and the issue of restraint ( perhaps relating to the wall) is important. Relations with other nations ( presumably the US) remain unstable.
March to May sees the people at least somewhat calmer. The focus seems mainly on economic matters.
Although the general unsettled feeling is reducing there is still  a sense of it at least in the early part of the period. Later things become more dynamic and the mood changes to one of aggression in some places. At a guess there may be some border confrontation now.
June to August us a good deal calmer. There is still focus on matters which seem to pertain to the wall but there is less pressure on the people. However the time is characterised by more pressure for the leadership due presumably to the scheduled elections. I’m not seeing radical shifts in the leadership though- and anyway we know Nieto is not eligible for re-election. I think we can expect a smooth transition and not a radical change of political direction.
September and October see a return to focus on those economic matters, but also more unsettled conditions which probably relate to the border again but might also relate to the drug trade. However the whole of the second half of the year seems less disruptive than the first half.
November and December are similar to the last few months , but there is far more unsettled feeling economically/ in the main industries again- more like the early part of the year. However the emphasis on cross border issues seems to have abated somewhat by the year end.
 2019
 January and February 2019 are therefore rather different in tone. The focus seems to be on economic matters and particularly budgets and resources.
Probably any disruption in industry etc will be for the long term good now as technological changes are favoured.
March to June, however, seems to be much much trickier. International ( border?) issues now resurface affecting the people and putting them at odds with the leadership. There may be a short period where brutal treatment of some is possible – alternatively debt issues cause short term hardship. It is an interesting period when there are many developments and some elements of the population are very disrupted or disruptive.
July to September sees a continuation of this disruptive mood, but otherwise it is an uneventful period when there are adjustments to political and economic policy but no radical changes. Indeed it is a time when economic statistics and availability of resources is fluctuating so no one trend dominates.
October and November continue this focus on economic matters including statistics and resources.
The government is seen in a good light in a time when events are moving fast and there are opportunities to be grasped.
However there is a risk of significant conflict for the people around late November/early December.
December itself is a relatively calm month when some things settle down a bit, though there is a major turning point now in relation to the external image of the country and its freedoms – it appears positive for the people, less so for the leadership.
2020 
January and February 2020 become more intense again. There is a lot of focus on international relations and the government and economic stability. All of which appears very challenging. This is a critical time for the country.
However the people are not highlighted so this suggests international events are impacting the bigger picture but not the day to day lives.
March to July however sees that change- perhaps as the impact of events starts to trickle down. The situation for the government seems to be increasingly relating to economic matters ( major international funds flows are highlighted).  The people are more restless, and there is a shift in focus from the government to the international arena for them.   It looks like a period of considerable drama.
For the people at least things seem to settle down again by August. But the government has to contend with the ongoing situation.
This comes to a peak in October/November. But interestingly despite all the challenges there are opportunities still to be had. Independence and adaptability are virtues at this time.
But, whereas many countries show the events moderating by December and a new environment forming, this is not the case with Mexico. While there is a new environment for sure this is one of opposition or significant shifts in trade. It looks to be an interesting time but we won’t have a good handle on how this will play out in practice until 2019 at least.