South Africa has
suffered from the combination of a number of factors over the last few years
each of which compound the others; general economic challenges post the global
financial crisis, commodities slump in 2015-16, restless unions/workers
regularly striking, political upheavals- scandals and challenges etc. It is unlikely that many of these will
disappear in 2017, though it will be interesting to see the medium term
forecast for 2020.
Certainly there appears to be no let- up in difficulties in
January and February 2017. There are indications of the people being both
unsettled and disillusioned. There are financial challenges, a general sense of
disruption and problems with water (floods and or continued drought) and
corruption. Overall there is a lack of direction and determination.
This period does not, however, stand put as one where the
government will be significantly challenged.
March to May retains many of these themes and the people
remain unsettled. However they remain aligned with the leadership at this time.
The water difficulties remain an issue.
There may also be news of crackdowns, some brutal or
challenges relating to natural resource extraction. There is a tendency for
small events to escalate out of proportion.
In comparison June to August seems to become much milder in
many respects. However ironically this comes with more challenges ( accusations
of corruption) for the leadership.
September sees a change in emphasis for the people and for
the country. There may be challenges to the currency and certainly financial
resources are unstable, and there are
likely to be further questions about both droughts and deception. The
challenges to the leadership continue.
November and December continue these themes. But now there
Is the beginning of a turning point as the environment begins to change and
adjustments to the government provide better opportunities.
There are still challenges within extraction industries
though as well as those relating to the past issues of apartheid etc.
January and February 2018 continue the themes of late 2017.
But there seems to be some slightly more positive news around as things are
better for the leadership and moderately ok for the people. Nevertheless
financial resource disruptions continue
March to May is an even better time in most respects for
both the people and the government. However this is only because there are
adjustments within the leadership to improve the foundations of the country.
And despite this the long term structural issues of the
country ( economic and political) are coming out of the woodwork now. It is
therefore a transitional time.
June to August sees this long term theme continue and with
it a more clear shake up of the status quo and country fundamentals. This seems
to have some economic benefits as those indicators are improved now; there is
certainly a sense that the people are more relaxed. Though there is a mild
inflation risk.
September and October are very similar to the June-August
period, but now the leadership has renewed dynamism and opportunities to
harness change in the economy.
November and December is more mixed. The people may be put
rather off balance and there may be a big shift in leadership fortunes.
2019 is due to be an election year ( if the ANC remains in
government – there is nothing so dramatic that I have seen to suggest
otherwise)
January and February continue to bring long term
themes/difficulties to the surface. It
is also a time of possible water difficulties again as well as currency ones .
It appears that the country could be very much in the
limelight at this time.
March to June us presumably going to be election time. There
is certainly a focus on the leadership now. The people are uncommitted –
neither for or against the leadership – but there are forces at play that will
bring long term changes – radical shocks are unlikely. The status quo is being shock up though and
this is generally of economic benefit even though there is a serious inflation
risk at this time.
July to September sees more economic power to the people.
But continued focus on long term issues, potential inflation and the shake up
of the familiar and safe. The impact of
that at this stage is mixed.
October and November see a slight change in emphasis and
some new communications relating to the people as a whole. Economic factors are
mixed, a mixture of change and caution is good for budgets and day to day
finance but not so good for growth.
There may be a tendency for the leadership to go overboard
now, though the people are optimistic.
December is a quieter month. There is more stability- indeed
any uncertainty is quelled and there is a sense that short term finances are
better. There is some restraint relating to longer term structural, currency
and also freedoms.
January and February 2020 see challenges to both the financial
position and the leadership. Potentially this could be the start of a very
difficult year for that leadership. There are still inflationary issues to
content with and also shifts to the long term fundamentals continue.
March to June continues the theme, but now it is much more
dramatic /explosive.
Nevertheless the indicators suggest that this is good for
the people in general.
August and September see a return to the mood early in the
year. It is a time when inflation may be very high.
October and November are characterised by huge momentum for
change, and a mixed financial outlook with both positive changes but also
continued inflationary ones. It seems
less good for the people as a whole
though.
December is more moderate but still continues the same
theme.
By the end of the month the economic situation may settle
though only due to new restrictions and interest changes/announcements
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