It has been difficult to pinpoint exactly what the situation
is economically in Venezuela. Indeed Bloomberg.com published an article by Mac
Margolis on this very subject this week ( 13/2/2017). Things are bad, but there
is much debate on how bad.
It would be nice to
have a clearer start point but or purpose is to look at the direction of travel
in future. We can still do that, and it is one of the advantages of our
technique.
2017
January and February 2017 indicate that there are three main
themes: strength of the leadership which is now waning, economic inertia and
trading difficulties ( no surprise there) and for the moment at least a very
unstable populace.
March to May, surprisingly sees some support for the
leadership, though this is not reflected at international level. Economic
inertia continues, though there is a brief period of positive news which
indicates new beginnings. However generally confusion reigns and there are
attempts to weaken any dissident voices.
June to August sees the brief spell of hope undermined by
confusion continue. There is also a risk of underground movements creating
trouble.
Matters relating to oil pricing come to the fore again but
the picture for this is merely mixed too.
September and October
see what appears to be the end of the long term strength of the leadership.
These two months are mixed ones, full of adjustments, compromises and can
kicking. No improvement in conditions can be expected.
Economic inertia continues to the end of the year.
November and December sees the people in a much more
assertive mood. Keen to take things into their own hands. There is no evidence
of conflict with the government yet though. In fact there might even be some
brief good news.
2018 looks to be a year when protest and confrontation
become the norm.
This can be seen as earlier as January and February, when
the efforts to improve the trading and budgetary position are tried but little
is achieved. This potentially leads to major conflict or disagreement.
March to May is a critical time. The mood of confusion from
2017 continues and there is likely weakness and corruption associated with the
leadership. The leadership may overdo its responses and only serve to add to a
feeling of instability. The people catch
the spirit of revolution and there is a shift in mood towards upsetting the
status quo. This should be election time if things go as planned – so expect
lots of drama around this.
June to August is a continuation of the developments of
March to May. There seems to be a bit of a tug of war between two possible
directions of leadership.
September and October don’t really have any indications of
the picture changing.
If anything disputes become
more intense. There is a sense that the country is being totally shook
up.
November and December see the conditions continuing but now
the focus seems to be on information and statistics. There may be communication
difficulties or restrictions, and certainly heated debate. However there may be
some boost from the oil price.
January and February 2019 sees the focus on communications
continuing, with the people speaking out.
There is still a sense of instability amongst the population
but it is less dominant than in 2018. What we do see now is a key moment in the
country’s history when things are about to be rebuilt. The leadership is still
in control but there is increasingly erratic behaviour which reflects badly on
the country and creates international problems.
March to June sees more emphasis on both oil trade and also
intense activity (which may include conflict). The impetus to overturn the
status quo remains strong.
But this period is mixed for the leadership, once again
suggesting both support and challenge – there appear to be beneficiaries that
continue to support the government despite ongoing weakness/corruption etc.
July to September is once again dominated by the opposing
forces. Little headway can be made now as there is no one dominant power. The
people who are still demanding change are now the focus of attention with other
nations. But their situation is better than in 2017 for example.
October and November actually see the people quite content
for a brief while. But the issues relating to the leadership continue. It is
almost impossible to have a stable parliament now.
December is interesting as it marks a shift in the identity
of the country which affects its resources and trade permanently as a 25 year
period comes to an end.
The picture is mixed, there is still a lot of change in the
economic arena and still instability at government level. However there is some
indication that strength may be available to one group or opposition though
this does not seem to favour the people.
January and February 2020 are the beginning of 12 months of
huge change in the country. The indicators are that there will be a complete
reinvention. Some of this will be challenging but interestingly the picture is
not terrible. It is possible that the country’s natural resources and relative
financial independence will be a benefit now. There is huge financial power
available.
March to July is less intense than the first two months and
again now without some disturbing upheaval, but yet again financial/resource
matters are broadly positive- indeed as even more emphasis is on financial flows rather than financial restriction
the position is better than those early months.
August and September sees a return to January and February
times. Now there is good news for the leadership but more difficulty for the
people.
October and November see the situation reaching a peak as in
so many countries.
December is rather different. Here the new environment is
characterised by restriction for the people and the start of a new economic
position but that means hardship for those holding on to the status quo. There
is some possibility that everything has
to end in unpleasant ways in order for the new environment to flourish.
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