2016 was a more
difficult year for Turkey than I expected. Overburdened with refugees and
threatened by the spread of terrorism it was then subject to an attempted coup
in July. Although the coup failed the associated risks led to downgrades in the
country’s credit worthiness.
The start of 2017, however doesn’t really reflect this.
Although there are economic issues to contend with, the work done on managing
them appears sufficient. However the country is most definitely under a cloud
which makes investors and travellers alike wary.
March to May, sees the people in a forceful mood, well
harnessed this could lead to better economic conditions but under the
circumstances is more likely to lead to dissent and protest. There may also be
sudden issues relating to restrictions on the spread of information at this
time which don’t favour the leadership. However broadly the government is
relatively stable now. The biggest issues are economic as there is evidence of
inflationary pressure perhaps caused by the weakened currency.
June to August continues this theme, although the picture is
slightly better than earlier in the year. In fact, although the people feel
somewhat threatened by situations now they are also supportive of the
leadership.
Despite the economic uncertainty, overall a better 3 months
than many in the last year.
September and October are mixed, but there is a feeling of
more optimism than of late. Perhaps due to improving conditions re Syria etc?
November and December are still mixed, but there are some
positive surprises for the people and continued attempts to transform the
economy. The period is mainly good for the leadership, with some adjustment
needed to reflect the changing conditions.
On balance a rather good end to the year appears to be
promised. However I am aware that in 2016, evidence of strength at government
level proved to be strength in the face of the coup, so despite the broadly
positive indicators I would still exercise caution.
2018
2018 is likely to be a year of surprises relating to the
economy, resources and women.
January and February continue the themes of November and
December 2016, but the economic matters become even more important. Although it
is necessary to restrict some actions/dissent at this time, the leadership
still remains supported.
While some restrictions may remain in place, March to May
sees continued focus on financial matters. There may be concern about the
currency this year ( see Lira analysis for confirmation or not of this). The
broader environment is changing and this will have a knock on effect on Turkey
over the coming few years.
June to August is slightly more unstable, as events shake up
the status quo somewhat.
However on balance things still seem rather positive for
both the people and the government.
September and October really just see a continuation of the
previous 3 months, perhaps with slightly more expectation.
November and December are also relatively ok. But there are
some changes now and a feeling that the environment may be getting tougher.
The government, however, will benefit from cracking down on
undermining threats.
January and February 2019 appears to be a key time for the
country. While the economic conditions
continue, there is a more prominent sense of confusion now. Furthermore there
is pressure or challenge from the country’s relations with partner/other nations.
This is not all bad news, but the upside is severely restricted now whilst
there is a more evident sense of fear and threat .
March to June is more moderated. There are some challenges
for the people and although there is still support for the leadership there is
also an attempt to shake it.
The period is not as intense as the early part of the year
though.
July to September, (other things remaining unchanged),
should be the run up to the election. And there is a clear indication that a
change in that leadership is likely now. Of course this could be attempts to
oppose the incumbents that fail. Either way, it is a start of a 12 month period
where the government is highly vulnerable to further change whether the
election brings it or not.
Although the people may feel undermined or threatened during
this period, not everything is bad- there is a reasonable sense of stability in
the country and even the potential for some positive surprises.
October and November see the drama of the previous 3 months
clam down a lot, despite the fact that the people still feel some sense of
foreboding they are also sensing a positive change. On balance there are still
more positives than negatives now and the leadership has a brief reprieve until
2020.
December is a quieter month, though there are longer term
forces working to change the status quo within the country and there is a sense
of not being sure what the future philosophy will be.
The people are concerned most with relations with the
outside world now, while the leadership is feeling quite stable albeit
temporarily,
2020 is a year that is all about money and female issues (
and possibly religious matters), but with little difficulty in integrating
them.
January and February is a very intense time when a lot can
happen. This is likely to relate mainly to economic matters but the other
possibilities can’t be ignored.
There are some challenging/confrontational indicators now,
though the broader picture seems to be one of conciliation.
March to June sees the pace of events pared back a bit. It
is an uncertain time and one where the leadership may once more feel the
challenge of being pushed to the brink.
This mood dissipates somewhat by July to September. However
it is another critical time in the country. The people feel very threatened now
though keep quiet about their worries but the government is much freer to
pursue its chosen path. Although there is some sense of instability it is not
dominant and indeed there is more indication that the key matters (
economy/women etc) will be progressing well.
October and November are further months where the government
pushes forward its policies despite this being of worry to the people. It is
not all plain sailing as there is some instability inherent in that approach of
pushing forward which need some attention. The Economic and other previously
mentioned matters continue to be the main focus of those policies.
While the core issues that have dominated the
year remain, there is a change of mood by the end of December. The people are
feeling out of kilter with the direction of travel. There is no direct
opposition to policy, however, rather a sense of acceptance tempered with
dissatisfaction.
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