Tuesday, 31 January 2017

Hang Seng 2017-2020

Unlike some of the major indices,(London has just closed 2016 at an all time high as I write this) The Hang Seng is not ending 2016 on or close to all time highs. This lack of dynamism in the year was part of the previous forecast. However that ended with the suggestion that we might be in new conditions and globally that certainly seems to be the case.
Of course as we have said before it is a strange index, distorted by a few companies ( 4 make up over 50%) but we’ll carry on regardless.
2017
The first three months of 2017 show indications of an increase in trade. There are some factors which tend to undermine the index and a requirement to adjust the composition to protect value.
The longer term undermining continues in the second quarter with some depression of values.
This period may also see some surprises for investors, leading to more volatility than we have seen in the last year or so
The themes continue in July to September but they seem more background than immediate then.
The final quarter is much more active. While there are still both surprises for investors and elements that drag the market down, there may also be a sudden increase in trading around October and a particular focus on the market towards the end of the year an even a temporary rapid uptick in value
2018 
January to March of 2018 is more mixed. Investor surprises continue, but the conditions supressing value are reducing. On balance there may be much ado about nothing and the market end the quarter more or less where it began.
April to June, however, see the beginning of a new long term phase for the index  and initially this seems broadly positive, although there is still some switching and other adjustment to be made.
July to September is a very mild period. Any movement is likely to be upwards – but it won’t be dramatic.
October to December sees a return to the frantic pace of late 2017.
There are less shocks now though, at least in October and November when there seems to be a major tension between the direction of value of the individual components
December is a month of more excitement when all eyes may be on the index.
2019 
January to march 2019 is once again positive. The trend in the market seems to be moving towards upwards, although there are still some concerns dragging things down.
April to June, however, sees a bigger change of emphasis. First there is more trade and a push to high values. But this is also the beginning of a critical 12 months or so when the fundamentals are either ignored or unclear.
July to September sees these themes intensify. There are shocks for investors as well as rapid trading. However there is also some protection in the form of a stabilising influence that will prevent things getting completely out of hand
The final quarter of 2019 is key. Although there will be difficulties for some investors, and indeed for the index proprietors here seems to be enough to prevent either melt up or melt down even in the face of some “interesting conditions”
2020
 
January and February 2020 still see confusion over the fundamentals, but although it may a tricky period for investors, the general trend is for relative stability and continued support for the index.
March To June are more mixed, but again there is support. Probably running the index is more problematic than holding it now.
July to September is more mixed. There may be some shocks which destabilise things and there may be undue focus on this index at that time- perhaps difficulties with a major component, overall though there is still some positive sentiment.
Indeed October and November see the likelihood of a boost, although once again the situation is more troubling  for the index proprietors again than the investors, who are feeling extremely positive.
December confirms that positive mood, but there are some sudden trades which might pull the rug from under some investors. The year ends with what is probably a significant switch of components rather than an overall index value trend.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Hong Kong $ 2017-2020

Well, much as I like predicting the disappearance of the Hong Kong dollar I’ve so far been very wrong ( although to be fair it is of less import than all those who have been continuously, and equally incorrectly,  predicting the collapse of the Euro!). Nevertheless I did spot that the impact on the HK$ in the last quarter of 2016 were likely to be externally triggered and in fact it was the US elections rather more than  the China economy that created the conditions for concern over the peg at this time.
Anyway,  I was almost tempted to shelve the whole Hong Kong thing as a relic of the past and move on to more interesting countries. But once again, for completeness, here we go:
2017 
Conditions are good for the currency in January and February 2017. Indeed the only difficulties are from external partner currencies. It is hard to stay pegged or within ranges when your partner currency is all over the shop.
The conditions continue through to May and in fact situations become somewhat more concrete at this time with some policy actions required.
June to August are better months. Although there is some risk of speculative action.
September to November are more complicated. There is once again external pressure and some big movements in funds globally that affect the currency’s markets.
December sees more pressure on the partner/US$ peg. But it also sees a shift in sentiment generally.
2018
 
Early 2018 sees a continuance of the conditions of 2017, though there is less direct pressure than in late 2017.
March and April are much more interesting as long term conditions affect the local people and there is a lack of direction which suggests that the general currency situation is untenable. There are more speculative actions.
May to July is a peak time for those concerned about the stability of the dollar peg. There is real instability now.
The situation is critical around August and September. The local people start to respond by trading the currency to protect their assets Though there is just enough faith to see things through then.
October to November become even more interesting as the situation with population and investors becomes more unstable.
It is likely that some change will have to be made by December.
 
2019 
2019 is a different type of year. It starts with what looks like more speculation.
But conditions are somewhat more stable than in 2018
In fact, although there are ongoing global events which continue to  shake things up in March and April, there does not seem to be much development at the local level.
May to July is more interesting. Rate changes are very likely now.
And there is a general concern about inflationary conditions.
August to October sees a slight lull in the trends.
Increasingly I am noticing a common thread across all the predictions that the latter part of 2019 represents a month or so of wait and see.
November and December, then, see a definite change in the tone of the currency environment.
Some further brief speculation in the HK$ is still possible.
2020
 
January and February 2020 see a greater intensity in global pressures on value.
March to June sees this escalate further. There may be some restriction on trade in the currency then
July to October sees a mix of actions to balance things, including rate changes, possible revaluations and re-defining of pegs etc.
November is key to this reformulation.
Leaving December as the month when a new environment starts operating.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Monday, 30 January 2017

Shanghai Composite 2017-2020

 The Shanghai Composite is a young index ( even as market indices go), and as a “baby” born in 1990 it has a very concentrated mix of planets in Capricorn. So it isn’t going to be experiencing the trauma of middle age or older just yet. Nevertheless that does not mean it can’t experience tough periods and that concentration means that it is likely to be more susceptible to big movements, unlike those institutions where there are often offsetting forces. So it is an all or nothing chart.
At the time of writing ( December 5th 2016),as I predicted in 2013, it has just had a year of calm. The next few years are expected to be more interesting, so it is worth bearing in mind the above paragraph – when something happens it will really happen.
 
 2017
2017 will be all about fundamental value.
January to March starts with some unexpected behaviour from investors which might lead to some volatility.
However there is much to support the underlying position and although there are some challenges ( possibly relating to other countries  such as the US and possibly to the country as a whole), I think the market will end March much where it began the year.
The themes continue right the way to June. It is possible that there is some concern about economic conditions in the country which causes investors to adjust their positions and leads to some pull back. I still don’t see this as being big or long lasting though.
July and August are very quiet. Even if investor emotions run high this won’t flow through to the total index value.
September is a month of confusion for investors, and things might be unsettling though again this does not seem like a change in the trend.
By December things are starting to change though. Investors are worried about the economic direction and the market may suffer as a result. There might even be some restrictions on trading.
On the other hand there are short term boosts, some of which are even overdone so it is still not all bad. Nevertheless investor fear is always worth watching for.
 
2018 
 
2018 looks like being a year of adjustment.
In the first 3 months, the themes of late 2017 continue. There is real worry now, and even the hope and faith that usually keeps the market buoyant can be tested. Emotions are overdone and big swings of sentiment are likely.
This might again lead to restrictions. This time in technology.
April to June sees more of the same. As globally investors become less concerned with growth and more with consolidation and switching to more solid stocks. Instability and technology challenges continue and there is a risk of a significant undermining of value.
July to September are calmer. On the one hand investors are still worried but the practicalities seem easier and this means that trade flows better and that leads to more optimism and trust.
I expect things to stabilise in this period.
Then in the last  months of 2018 things become quiet dramatic again.
While there is still better faith and optimism generally, there are some notable destabilising influences. Again technology restrictions are at play.
Trading volumes may rise gradually at first, but them become extreme.
By the end of 2018 large amounts of money and shares are changing hands.
 
2019 
2019 starts with more fears, and uncertainty but things are more moderate than at the end of 2018.
There is some inertia in fact in January and February.
March to June sees caution be the watchword. Not much will happen and the market will tread water.
July through to September sees more inertia and more fear. Though there may be some positive economic news to lift spirits briefly.
Then in October and November, we see more worry and once more an increase in trading volumes.
This might have to do with China as a whole taking control of a global situation and thus securing some hope for the market.
December ends the year on a very worried note though. There may be large volumes of trade again, and a rush into technology and communications stocks again.
 
2020
 
2020 is a very serious year when the country and the market is quite controlled.
January sees a key turning point as global issues are addressed by  China.
There is a short period of hope and optimism.
February sees more of the same but with extremes of sentiment.
There doesn’t seem to be a clear direction just yet, lots of gambling on the future really.
In March through to June, there are very big movements of capital which affect the market. The key is whether the organisations are well funded or pressurised with debt and whether they are influenced by the international changes.
I would not be surprised if this lead to major increases in value overall.
July to October sees no let- up in the themes , and indeed investors are likely to be more rather than less driven by sentiment now.
It’s a tough time, but there are opportunities for those who can take the sensible options.
November is characterised by one final push in terms of capital flows and market trends. Things are steadily becoming clearer.
Then December sees the culmination of events as the market seems to reach a certain level of maturity. This is not without difficulties, but there is enough consolidation of investment to see the position strengthen through the final month.

Renminbi 2017-2020

 Of the charts we’ve looked at so far, the Renminbi must be my worst 2016 forecast, particularly the latter part of the year. It certainly didn’t look like a bad chart, but clearly I missed something. Certainly we must assume that where the current trends extend into 2017 they will bring more of the same as actual 2016 and not what I forecast for that year
2017
 
2017 looks to be an exciting year for the currency even before we know in which direction.
January to March sees a repeat of some of the conditions of 2016, and if that period is to be relied on then we will see more weakness in the Renminbi over these three months. However there is also potential for restriction on its freedoms.
April through to June is a time of little direction, though perhaps accompanied with volatility. There are inflationary pressures which might lead to concern about debt levels.
In August and September there are still background economic issues pulling on the currency, despite there being the potential for a sudden buying spree.  
On balance though by the end of the period I would expect some upturn in value.
October to December is a time of significant activity relating to the currency. When investors will be talking about it and when there may be interest rate changes. While we still have background strain and weakness caused by external forces, there is a combination of factors which should lead to more strength. There is certainly likely to be a lot of trade in the currency and for the most part it has appeal , even if this might be overestimated. At the end of the year there may be an extra boost in its attractiveness.
2018
 
2018 sees a shift in mood and the need for adjustment to protect the long term reputation.
January may be quiet, but around February is a key time when I expect there to be a lot of interest in the currency from both the Chinese themselves and other investors. Although there are some challenges and even possible restrictions on the level of trade, I expect the balance of trend to be upwards.  
March, April and Mare are less interesting. The same conditions continue but they are reduced in intensity, I don’t expect much break in the trend, but I don’t expect much action either.
From June to September that changes. We are back to more challenging conditions, and indeed they are magnified now. Don’t expect this to be good for the currency.
Although there are still positives to be had, the feeling that trade is restricted and there may be underlying weakness means that any  upturns in value are likely to be short lived
October to December is another key quarter for investors. There is a focus on debt ( at home and away) and how it affects the value of the currency.
Of course there are still things happening globally that make the Renminbi a trade worth making despite the offsetting restrictive conditions.
I think there will be a major turning point in December 
 2019
Having said that,  not much has changed in early 2019. We still have more of the same themes.
Now however we have competing forces, so that the trend is lost in volatility. On balance though I think there will be an increase in value for the currency  now .
April to June is more mixed and distinctly less stable Although there is still momentum on the upside, there is also the potential for all sorts of shocks and surprises, some not as good as others.
July to September sees a more moderate situation. But there is still severe instability which will lead to the need for adjustment and rate changes.  
Although there are positives still ,I feel that the negatives win out here.
October and November see currency trade hit fever pitch.
More news and rate changes, and a string of events and decisions in China and overseas impact on the level of the currency.
Expect huge swings in value before things start to settle down.
December is more of a month of adjustment, although there are continued  surprises and volatility; policy decisions and rate changes are slowly starting to adjust the position.
Even the most dramatic changes will be managed and consolidated into something more stable now.
2020 
2020 is another year of active trade and exchange.
January still sees continued swings, and concern with finding the right level, but there is less pressure than in much of 2019.
There are big forces at play but they are not pushing the currency in any one direction now.
February sees more of the same.
Expect volatility and adjustment but little trend, despite signs that the currency is a better bet than many.
March to May sees more adjustment, especially of interest rates and other policy measures to contain the uncertainty.
There is one final external shock to rock the boat a little more but things seems to be more settled.
June through to November is a long period of adjustment and realignment. There is much negotiation and decision making affecting the currency in relation to is partners – the outcome of which looks positive. Again the Renminbi is doing better than some other currencies.
December is a month of wait and see, as the mood changes and the impact of new policies and rates is felt. But I don’t expect any particular trend to emerge this month.
 
 
 

China 2017-2020

 
Although there have been economic challenges and changes in China over the last few years, and although there is some uncertainty as to how reliable the statistics are and how serious the combination of slowing growth and increasing balance of trade with the US will play out in the longer term; in the shorter term the country looks relatively stable.
However, it must be said that the coming few years are critical for the long term development of the country. It is likely to be centre of the world stage ( yes even more than Trump’s America) as it tries to consolidate 70 years of evolution.
 
2017
 
January and February of 2017, will see very little change from 2016. The same questions and concerns will continue to be discussed and yet there will be no real challenge or resolution.
The period March to June, sees the economic position at the forefront.
But the balance is still positive. Of course there are background issues but these are not yet going to shake either the economy or the government.
In fact there may even be some cause for optimism at this time.
There is however some risk of a war of words, either internally or externally.
July to September is not radically different. Although there is some uncertainty for the people (and perhaps some floods).
Optimism remains, as does support for the leadership, although there are some moderate problems with economic statistics showing some recession and the need for some restriction on dissent.
October to December sees the beginning of some change in sentiment.
But it is early days and the only issue to note is one of media control. There will be more focus on the economy though.
2018 
 
2018 will be more about whether the people of China are happy with the rate of change in their country.
January to April sees more concern about recession with more uncertain stats. This might lead to some challenges for the leadership.  Surprising announcements are possible.
But there is a risk that there is a momentum growing amongst the people that could lead to problems later.
May to July heralds a change of pace. However no single theme dominates yet. There is some misinformation about or deception by the leadership, resulting in difficulties at the top and some economic shocks  ( possibly external) may manifest.
There is a risk of problems spilling into aggression, though this is not likely to be uncontained at this time
August and September are quieter months, which continue the theme of May to July, with some of the economic issues and perhaps the balance with the US needing attention.
October sees a key turning point, as a significant decision is made.
November and December are much more likely to be eventful. This is almost certainly related to relationships with other nations. It is a critical point in the economic development of the country and  it is likely to  a have wider consequences.
What is interesting is that after some difficulties in the November by December the leadership is seen in a positive light.
2019 
2019 is characterised by a combination of financial matters affecting the people and long term transformation in the nature of the leadership.
In January and February the situation is mixed. There is some confusion over direction and even indications again of poor economic statistics.
However there is also a very strong drive for growth which could even be war like in its force.  Expect strong leadership actions at this time.
From March to June, there is still a very “assertive” atmosphere ( I don’t see military action, it is much more likely to be economic) and the leadership is supported by the people in this even though there are some difficulties to surmount.
Expect some real economic shocks at this time, probably more significant and widespread n effects than those from 2018.
Although the themes continue in July and August, there is some let up in intensity
September and October see a return to the previous focus, however. More shocks are likely, though these are not new ones, merely the next stage of what has already happened.
It still looks as if, on balance, the Chinese leadership is strong and positive throughout this period.
In November and December, we see another set of rapid changes economically. The people are still inspired though. Whatever the actions now, it is what they want too even if there is a need for adaptation and some recession in the short term.
There are likely to be big financial announcements at the end of the year.
2020 
2020 is a year of more drama. The shocks are almost past, this is really  the last of the big ones,  but the consequences are only just beginning.
January, however, also sees a huge groundswell of support for the Chinese leadership and a mood which can only be described as belligerent.  It is possible that the country might make some grand gestures, and not in a positive way, now.
The next 3 months are more mixed, there are continuing economic issues to contend with as well as some aggressive action ( again I see this mainly in the nature of economic warfare rather than anything more physical; although worst case scenarios can’t be ruled out)|
May and June are merely a continuation of the earlier months, but with less of the drama and somewhat more considered behaviour.
July through to October also see the situation ongoing. This time there is more emphasis on recession and financing and funds flow, rather than any externally generated shocks. As a result things are more moderated.
November is pretty much the same as October but with things coming more to a head.
The year ends with a global shift which puts the focus firmly on China and what it will do next. Economically, on the one hand, it has never looked so powerful, yet on the other it is severely constrained in its choices.
 

Sunday, 29 January 2017

Iceland 2017-2020

 This will be a short forecast. While Iceland was core to the events of 2007-8, and while I still think it is of interest from a climate perspective, its importance generally to these forecasts has diminished considerably.
However, I like the chart very much and thus I’m reluctant to drop it entirely so here goes.
 
2017
 
The only matters of note in January and February 2017 relate to the fact that there is a great deal of misinformation and this creates confusion for the people. No doubt there are ongoing issues relating to the attempts to form a coalition after the 016 elections.
March to May seems to be a time when the government and people can make a new start together. However there is continued confusion and some obstacles for the leader which may well put a spanner in the works. . On balance though it looks as if some progress can be made now. There is also an ongoing ( throughout the next 3 years) possibility of progress in matters relating to science which may have global impact. Thus references to lack of foundation that follow can all be considered in that light too.
June to August is rather mixed. The people are dissatisfied as they don’t have the freedoms they expected. The external view is that the country still doesn’t have a solid foundation. And there are still issues getting the government to cooperate, leading to problems with budgets etc.
Although the issues continue in September and October, conditions are more moderated.
And although there are still challenges in the last two months, there is definite progress in terms of government etc. The only concern is that there may be some restrictions implemented around now.
2018 
January and February 2018 see a turning point which is key to the country’s identity.  
There are still questions about issues from 2016 and the situation is somewhat fluid.
March to May is generally a positive time, while some issues still remain, there is both stability and dynamism to the government and communication with the population is good.
June and July are a little more mixed. But while there is perhaps a brief sense of over-enthusiasm for the people , this is balance d by the steadiness of the government.
August to October continue mixed with a need to make some adjustments for the outside world- maybe tourism related.
The period is ok though little headway can be made.
November and December are more dynamic months when much can be achieved and in November at least the country is shown in a positive light. December is a little less stable and the government may overreact to events.
2019 
2019 starts as it means to go on ; a year of key developments for the country.
There is some push back on financial policy now as interest rate advantages may be disappearing, but there is still major support for the country by its people.
April to June is  very mixed and purely a time of adjustment when nothing really gets achieved. Rates are likely to be a question still.
July to September  is deadlock time not just in Iceland but everywhere. The biggest risk is throwing the baby out with the bathwater in order to gain short term freedoms.
October to December brings to the end the period where I feel the foundations are underwater or where science brings the country into prominence.
 This period is quiet unstable everywhere and Iceland certainly seems to need to make trading adjustments. November is therefore a tiem when cross party support is a challenge. December is once again a time when the government might make hasty decisions.
 
2020
 
January and February of 2020 are months when the people are likely to raise most objections.
But generally Iceland is only indirectly affected by events now. It does mean some positions have to be altered but there is even a boost for the government.
March to June is though a period when the people aren’t quite sure what is going to happen.  But despite some underlying doubts there is enough that the country can harness now to make progress.
July to September sees the people in an optimistic mood and despite underlying pressures on the leadership things seem relatively good.
The mood even improves in the next couple of months and the people are mostly aligned with the government.
December is actually a calm  and stable month. Although there is a change of environment that will have a bigger impact in 2021. 
 
 
 

Switzerland 2017-2020

Readers will know that I don’t enjoy writing about Switzerland as not enough happens to make it worthwhile. However that is not a reason to give up- if one doesn’t make the forecasts one will never spot the time that something does happen.
The only point of interest is financial policy ( interest and exchange rates).With Switzerland having far less debt per head than many western nations, having significantly reduced banking secrecy arrangements and with a much more frequent tendency to ask the public via referenda, there is certainly little to say as 2017 begins.
 
2017 
 
Indeed I don’t expect any thing to significantly change in January and February.
There is an ongoing theme of breaking away from the past,  doing things a new way , and this will be particularly noticeable in the early months of 2016. However there is nothing to suggest much difficulty for the leadership or the people.
This remains the case in March and April although there is evidence that changes are gradually becoming more insidious. There may be some challenges regarding partner nations at this time.
May to July will see a continuation of the themes. Once again there is nothing that sticks out as having a major impact on government or people yet. On balance it is quite a positive time.
August and September while still characterised by these breaks with past methods, still have the people and government on the same page.
October becomes a little more interesting. The spotlight is on relations with other nations and this is accompanied by the beginnings of a long term (40 year) shift the ambition drive and military approach in the country.
Despite some restrictions in this period the overall mood is still fine.
December sees some surprising economic decisions, perhaps brought on by the recent shifts in international relations. However there is nothing to suggest that Switzerland is particularly negatively affected.
 
 2018
 
January to March 2018 is again relatively stable.
There are still clearly some economic issues ( perhaps relating to banking flows) to be managed but when the focus is on the country, as now, the general view is still fine.
April and May see issues of communication and exchange come to the fore. At this time there is a bit of a double whammy in terms of long term change and although there is no evidence to suggest that this will give rise to any local dissent it could be an time when the country is drawn into wider debt or other issues.
June to August is then a time when a lot happens. The people are very motivated and conscious of being misled so this might give rise to some unsettled actions. But more likely this will be channelled into work and achievement for the country. There is a real chance to make progress now.
September and October still maintain a relatively calm situation.
 There is still plenty to suggest that the leadership of Switzerland will be able to take a wider lead at this time.
November and December are again months where long term changes continue.
There may be some surprise announcements ( perhaps relating to interest or exchange policy) and perhaps some inflationary concerns which are enough to make some people over-react.
2019 
 
 The first two months of 2019 are a little more difficult. As changes continue, we see a disconnect between two elements of the population and although the government is stable enough not to be vulnerable now it does create some upset with its large policy shifts.
March to May therefore sees the people at odds with government policy. There may be a tendency to protest although there does not see to be enough momentum for this to other than limited in scope.
June to September is a period when little concrete happens , but government is subject to a lot of conflicting debate.
October sees another shift- this time in Switzerland’s place within the global economy.
Some disconnect between government and people still exists, but there is huge momentum carrying forward changes now so any objections are in vain.
December 2019 is for the most part a  positive month. Although there are some obstacles the overall theme is one of positive evolution.
2020
 
January 2020 we have spoken of elsewhere. Here it seems to have the effect of causing roadblock In changes.
However there is definitely enough goodwill to see the country through any external turbulence.
 
February is a time of adjustment but despite the challenges there is definitely some powerful momentum.
March to June are months when a great deal can be accomplished but there is a risk that the people will vote through some radical changes now, not all of which are in the longer term best interests. This has an effect on the government which finds itself vulnerable and unable to lead properly.
July to August sees the people start to take on a more nationalistic mood and also to make their present felt more widely.
I am not seeing anything happen that suggests changes to the leadership though, merely  that there may be some changes to the foundations/constitution agreed now.
September to November is really a follow on phase from the previous one.. But now there is more likelihood on actual protests.
However the bulk of the indicators are positive and there is nothing to suggest a difference of opinion between government and people now.
Finally December 2020 is a time of transition globally but really the impact on Switzerland is relatively minor.  We will assume that the indicators are implying a consolidation of economic energies but it is also possible that this implies massed marches or other activities.
 
 

Ireland 2017-2020

 Despite Ireland suffering severely due to the 2007/8 crisis, and following this with stiff austerity measures ( although accompanied by bank bail outs), it has been relatively stable in the last few years 
However it would be wrong to say that the country is completely out of the economic woods, and recent stats have been down beat.
2017 
As 2017 starts there is no real change to the picture. Indeed there is a feeling of lack of direction ( perhaps reflecting the fact that 2 main markets – US and UK are undergoing unprecedented political changes). However there is nothing to suggest, on balance, that the first two months of the year will be anything other than buzzing. 
April to June is likely to be quieter. But although there may be some difficult with structural financial issues the overall situation remains positive.
July and August don’t change this significantly. There is even a time when the leadership makes substantial headway.
September and October are slightly more mixed, some indicators are positive, some negative. But it continues to be a moderately good year and indeed the 2 months end on a bit of a high.
The final two months are still ok though there is, again, some concern about the lack of direction in the longer term.
2018 
January and February are a little tougher for the people. We see the country reflecting on the last 3 decades, both the growth and subsequent problems and asking “where next?” It could be quite  tricky period with questions over continued austerity and some slight feeling of misalignment.
March and April see the theme ongoing, but there is no sense of significant difficulties. There is more evidence that the economic patterns of the period since the early 1990s are closing and a new one emerging; this will be slightly less acquisitive and more accumulative.
May to July sees some dissatisfaction amongst the population. There are some surprising economic shifts. It is a time when the government has to work extra hard to assert its policies but, other than the continued question of debt, there is no reason to think that they will be unable to achieve what is required.
The opportunities afforded to the leadership continue. But August and September are months when communication is at the fore-front of the country’s concerns. There are both breakthroughs and obstacles.
October and November see the government again pushing forward against some restriction as well as continued economic surprises- these may relate to funding flows- but the general outcome seems to be for the benefit of the country. 
December is a mixed month, in the main quieter, although with a tendency to over-exuberance at times.
2019 
January and February 2019 seem like the beginning of a tougher period, when there is a creeping feeling amongst the people of not being control of their destiny. There are some recessionary indicators as well as debt questions to contend with.
March to May is a bit better. The people seem to be more positive about the economic foundations, despite the background worries mentioned in the early part of the year.
There is a real sense of confusion at leadership level- perhaps even some deception. As a result there is an impetus for breaking away from the past now.
June until August sees more of the confusion surrounding leadership. There may be adjustments to the balance of power and the government is inclined to take big decisions regarding the country’s economic future now. It remains to be seen whether these are the right ones.
September to November see the people in a feisty mood but not opposed to the leadership.
There are still ongoing economic adjustments to be made and although there may be good news there is also, once again, a tendency to take risks to create a new environment.
December is exciting as it sees changes on a wider global scale that will impact the country over the next decade but the months itself sees no special developments in terms of government or people directly.
2020 
January 2020 sees the continuation of the wider changes, and now the people are feeling the effects of not being in charge again.
There are some surprises, once more, as new economic policies and events start to bed in but the government seems to be riding the crest of a wave now with both support from the people and the right conditions for development.
Although there are some developments and especially some exciting news in February, the overall conditions are similar to January. Perhaps there is a bit of excess misplaced optimism now as well.
March to July is the first part of an almost year long change. The period feels a little different to the start of the year as the question of debt becomes more important to the people than the question of control. Once more there is a sense of inertia within the government as changes seem to be fast and furious but still outside their control.
In the second part of the big 2020 phase, from August to November the mood changes to one of optimism and hope. The government and the people share the same feelings of expectation although they don’t necessarily have an outlet for them ( i.e they are still not in entirely in charge of their own destiny ).
The year ends with the people adjusting to the changes and to new relationships with the outside world. There is still some feeling of having lost power over their destiny but the changes are being embraced by the government and the end of the year seems to be characterised by the new relationships with partners etc. and at this stage there look to be more benefits than not.