Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Part III 2013-2016 - Astrological overview

Having said I wasn’t going to provide forecasts with astrological symbolism in them I am immediately going to do just that. But only to provide a background to the global transits that we are dealing with over the coming few years. This is part III of the series that I started in 2008.
I have already dealt with the nature of the players in the Pluto Uranus square. However, I addressed the actual square as part of the bigger picture for 2010 and not by itself.
We’ve already seen the start of this square, not only as part of the bigger cross but in the two exact ‘hits’ in 2011
 

Ura (7)  Sqr         Plu (3)   (X)          Tr-Tr      24 Jun 2012                         08°Ar23' D           08°Cp23' R
Ura (6)  Sqr         Plu (3)   (X)          Tr-Tr      19 Sep 2012                        06°Ar57' R            06°Cp57' D
 
There are 5 more such connections to come
Ura (7)  Sqr         Plu (4)   (X)          Tr-Tr      20 May 2013                       11°Ar14' D           11°Cp14' R
Ura (7)  Sqr         Plu (4)   (X)          Tr-Tr      1 Nov 2013                          09°Ar25' R            09°Cp25' D
Ura (7)  Sqr         Plu (4)   (X)          Tr-Tr      21 Apr 2014                       13°Ar34' D             13°Cp34' R
Ura (7)  Sqr         Plu (4)   (X)          Tr-Tr      15 Dec 2014                        12°Ar35' R            12°Cp35' D
Ura (7)  Sqr         Plu (4)   (X)          Tr-Tr      17 Mar 2015                        15°Ar18' D           15°Cp18' D


 
It is worth noting that the earlier 2013 transits affect slightly different countries and markets to those that occur in 2014-15. More of this when we get to the real nitty gritty of forecasts over the coming months.
What can we expect? I expect earthquakes ( although in my view the shale gas rush is absorbing some of this planetary energy). Indeed I expect a lot of focus on energy sources in general. I don’t expect a return to boom conditions but rather a need to restructure and reform and so I expect big changes in many countries’ political leanings, often though not always accompanied by a change in leader. I expect some of the technology that has dominated for the last 45 years to be superseded and I expect some radical new discoveries.
There are likely to be many hidden and underground matters coming suddenly to the surface both physically and metaphorically.
Economically I am afraid I see this time as very challenging. Things that have proved safe for decades are now going to be restructured and a lot of people will feel the force of this. The balance of power is shifting – if you haven’t kept up and evolved over the last 20 years you’re toast. I see a shift in the nature of organisations too. Contrary to what some new age predictors believe, I don’t see these shifts  as the meek inheriting the earth- I see it as another step on the rocky road to a hell in the future.
However, as I have said before, all is not lost at this point, tricky as things might be. Neptune is still in trine mode with Pluto saving the worst of the changes for post 2030 and more importantly 2060.
Having described the main background aspect, lets’ look at what I consider the modifiers.
Saturn in scorpio
In 2013 the main modifier is Saturn. Saturn has a new home for the next two years- Scorpio. Saturn quite likes Scorpio- although whether people like Saturn in Scorpio is another matter altogether. It is a bit bleak, a bit paranoid ( especially when accompanied by the moon – so watch the eclipses in May and November) and a bit cold.
Look back to 1983-5 for ideas how Saturn will entertain itself ( although Saturn doesn’t entertain except in a very drole way) in this new home.
Creating a number of trines to Pluto throughout the year it makes for a dark picture but without the drama of the unexpected change. In this regard it fights with Uranus via a quincunx, to work with Pluto. Conserve resources, implement your uranian changes gradually and germinate the seeds of something new but don’t try and expand too much in this period.
It is inimical to speculation and leverage- so the investment banking and private equity companies better find a hobby quickly.
Jupiter
Jupiter spends the first half of 2013 in Gemini – finishing off last year’s light work, before moving into Cancer where it is exalted – pies all round.
But the latter position puts it into direct opposition with Pluto on-and-off for a year from around September- I imagine we’ll be looking at debt issues again when this happens. At the end of 2013 it is moderated through a grand trine with Saturn and Neptune a weak but stable influence.
 In 2014  the moderation is only by Saturn and this is offset by a square with Uranus. i.e There is a T square between Pluto Uranus and Jupiter throughout the first half of 2014. Watch April when the Sun and Mars complete the square. This looks a particularly volatile time with ‘calm it down’ Saturn not playing a part in the battle.
Later on in 2014 Jupiter rolls up into Leo for  a different take on things – and a much less clear picture overall. There is still awkwardness but also by the end of that year more opportunities and 2 things happen:
First Jupiter trines Uranus- making people more inclined to compromise rather than walk away and all those opportunities just a little easier to grab and integrate. We could do with a bit of fortune.
Saturn in Sagittarius
Saturn starts its sourjourn in a new sign in 2015 ( with some brief collecting of belongings from Scorpio later) .  Saturn is a good deal less happy here but that isn’t bad as, frankly, things will be difficult enough throughout the whole 4 year period without Saturn continuing to flex its armoured fists.
See 1986-7 for ideas about how this might affect matters- it’s a bit of a downer for religion, aerospace, travel in general and higher education.
Otherwise 2015 is a quiet year for moderating aspects so our friends Pluto and Uranus can finish their work unmolested. Anything that has tried to hold out against the combined force of these two will be forced to cave in in 2015.
Jupiter in Virgo
 by 2016 Jupiter has moved into Virgo, which it hates. All that routine and detail- yuck- let’s go party. No chance- it has a square to Saturn too. In this position these two will fight it out all year – neither really getting to shine.  However Jupiter does come into contact with our infamous Pluto Uranus square again. This time it favours Pluto with a friendly trine and gets all jittery with Uranus.
We’ve also got another player by this time -Neptune square Saturn – just when Saturn thought it could control silly Sag – Neptune comes along and totally confuses matters.   
The upshot of 2016 seems to be  that absolutely nothing concrete can be achieved.
 
 

The prediction project : Some findings

In the interest of improvements in round two, I thought it would be useful to summarise some of the findings of my 4-5 year exercise. 
 
I had never undertaken more than the odd single forecast before, so this was a huge project (indeed, it is only now that I am starting on the next 4 years, that I realise just how big a project it is).
 
I didn't expect perfection when I started, but I hoped that I might, on balance be right at least more than 50% of the time. I also wasn't sure of the relative efficacy of using country, currency and stock market charts, nor how much accuracy could be expected by only looking at outer planet transits.
 
While there have been a few duds, I have been stunned how good some of these forecasts can be. I scored my last set of forecasts when conducting my recent review. (I thought these were the best ones to use as they represented. predictions 3-4 years ahead when I made them).
 
My predictions were on average about 73% accurate.  I had over 90% accuracy in some cases but obviously this was offset by the odd dud.This is good enough to form the basis of an investment strategy which includes stop losses etc.
 
It certainly ought to be enough to satisfy the sceptics, as anything over 60% is most unlikely to have been by chance. In any case, some of the predictions were so perfect that a sceptic would have to work extremely hard to justify chance.
 
There are some specific findings which are of interest on an on-going basis:
 
1) The easiest things to forecast were the timing of leadership changes. The Sun in the country's chart consistently represented the leader of government, whatever form that took, and difficult transits to that Sun represented challenges and changes.
 
2) Timing of turning points in the stock markets were relatively easy to predict, and there was usually enough evidence to identify the direction of that turn. But the size of the movements was almost impossible to gauge in most cases.
 
3) It is possible to determine relative currency strength by looking at pairs of currency charts. Otherwise currency charts tend only to reflect the general state of the currency/country and aren't as useful. This confirmed what I had already established over the decade of following the US$/Euro.  
 
4) More charts mean more accuracy.  By which I mean, looking at country, currency and stock market charts for a single country could highlight a major event by repeating a theme over all the charts whereas looking at just one chart raised a lot of 'possibilities' but less concrete outcomes. I particularly mention Japan in March 2011 in this regard. 
 
5) Looking at long term transits (rather than transits of the inner planets) is only likely to highlight major disasters that affect the whole country etc. It won't be enough to spot the smaller or localised ones. This is a fairly intuitive finding - the more detail one looks at the more detail one is likely to find.
 
6) As well as being able to identify turning points in the markets, it is also possible to determine turning points in political will/policies/country's internal mood. Transits to both natal and progressed angles in the charts consistently show this.
 
7)  Transits to the country's Descendant point usually mean events triggered externally - by partner nations etc. and not internally generated ones.  However drawing the line between what is internal and what is external is not so easy in an economically  globalised one.
 
8) For the most part ( earthquakes etc aside) events in a country chart do not suddenly manifest in a year out of nowhere. Accurate prediction requires a clear understanding of how the chosen chart is working and how the cycles are unfolding. Mostly we are looking at events evolving slowly until they manifest in full. I definitely prefer to look at the gradual monthly movement of the planets in any given case, rather than just pick a single point in each year and forecast from that. But 'you pays your money you takes your choice' on this one. 
 
9) One of the hardest things about this project was media bias in reporting news. In many cases I struggled to demonstrate accuracy in forecasting as the British media don't report much of what happens, especially economically, in other countries (except the US). And reporting often contains a significant opinion bias which can be difficult to extract if you don't know the reality of that nation. 
 
10) Another unexpected difficulty was boring charts. It is harder to predict when nothing much is happening than when dramatic events are occurring. The need to say something is overwhelming, when sometimes one just needs to accept that there is stability and more the same. Will the Swiss please stand up.
 
11) The third surprise was an aside from the main project. I tried my hand at football predictions in the 2010 world cup with a good deal more success than I deserved for a first attempt. I still cannot get over how clearly the 500 year old chart I use for Spain plainly showed the exact hour of winning the cup. Despite being an advocate, i am still amazed by the power of astrology.
 
12) As I knew before I started one's own bias must be overcome. Even awareness of it cannot overcome some bias. I found this particularly hard when looking at currency pairs- desperately wanting the outcome I hoped for rather than objectively considering the astrology.
 
13)  The most surprising finding for me was that it didn't actually matter how well I knew the country/currency/market in order to forecast; the results were as good for country's I had never visited ( e.g Japan) as for ones I knew well. While some of this might be due to the effects described in 10), there was definitely an ability to predict things like leadership changes
 
14) Sometimes one just has the wrong chart. And, if so, need to change it.
I presume my consistent failures to predict Brazil stem from this problem. But will need to do research to come up with something better.
 
15) Despite all the successes, none of the above proves that the planets have a direct influence on the earth. My believe is still that the Universe is a huge interconnected network where everything reflects everything else and that it is possible to discover anything if you only ask in co-ordinated and consistent way. The only advantage to astrology is that the planets are 'out there' so there is less 'noise' when trying to make a prediction. I still think entrails would work if you wanted them to and were suitably un-sqeamish!!! I'll stick with the planets though.
 
So those are my main findings. But I might add to this list later if anything else springs to mind. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Americas and other review of 2011-12

US and US$
Wow! I did better than I recalled here.
I correctly forecast continued monetary expansion through 2011-12 although not at earlier levels including less focus on the Fed in 2012. I also predicted (as an aside) that the current president would be returned- even though when writing in early 2008 I did not know who that would be. I had completely forgotten I did this. Bonus marks all round eh? 
85%
 
Dow
I noted that there may be recovery in prices in the latter part of 2011, which occurred. In 2012, I saw conflicting themes and no real long term trend. I noticed the possibility of Neptune/moon depressing things around May, conflicting directions in June to Sept and noted that Jupiter would reach Pluto in the last months but failed to explain what that would mean leaving it for 2013.
70%
 
Nasdaq
My forecasts for the Nasdaq were for a lot of excitement and volatility in 2011 (except over the summer when I expected a little calm and a bit of negative sentiment in Oct/Nov. The resurgent interest in technology stocks obviously helped both the US markets at this time.
In 2012 I went for increases in the first few months (right again), a fall back between March and August (and again!) then up till July and then a down from September (right yet again!). I also highlighted April May as interesting to watch – and of course this was the time of the Facebook IPO.
 So yes this was a great forecast. AAA (although of course such a rating hardly exists any more ;-) ) Remember I was writing in spring 2008! Beat that analysts.
95%
 
Canada
Another country entering the period under review from a position of strength, with only a background Neptune aspect that indicated a sense of inertia to counteract the latent strengths. I didn’t have much new to say for later 2011, In 2012 I highlighted a particularly extraordinary indicator around February 2012 suggesting major political change issues.
I forecast on-going disputes in April to June, but suggested there were positive offsetting influences by September. I expected the year to end well as Canada harnessed its strengths to evolve.
So what did that background Neptune entail?
From the Economist in Aug 2011 ‘Some economists express concern that Canada has followed a similar trajectory in recent years to that of the United States leading up to its financial collapse in 2008. Canada's trade surpluses have turned to deficits…. [But].. The biggest threat to Canada's economy is its intrinsic vulnerability to the outside world. With a population of 30m, the country does not consume enough on its own to maintain output if foreign demand dries up:
 So yes Canada was strong but not independent and thus not able to take as much action as its strength would suggest.
Economic growth slowed, with annualized GDP growth up 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2012,. However there does not appear to have been anything to support the indicator I saw for February. However in April a major bill overhauling 50 laws was put forward.
I also particularly like my 2011 introductory comment that Canada has a real chance to be a leader in change in the world at this time since Mark Carney became Chairman of the G20's Financial Stability Board in 2011 and was appointed to the Bank of England at the end of 2012.
70% - Whilst I feel I correctly grasped the background themes I failed on exact event timing
 
Mexico
I expected relatively positive economic effects from mid-2011 to early 2012 However the positives would be accompanied by some hard aspects possibly due to external events.
In 2012 the period from March to sept there might be leadership changes and economic repercussions of wold events. I expected changes in industry too. But Mexico would still be doing better than many. I thought there might be more political challenges around November perhaps related to corruption.
The reality is that Mexico’s recovery from the 2008 global crisis has been impressive. Indeed net migration to the US is now close to zero.
There was an election in July 2012 and a change of leader (after a recount due to complaints) as anticipated. However there have been protests especially by students and riots even on 1st December.
The drug war continued to be a problem for parts of the country throughout the period. It is possible that some of the internal stability that I could see in motion by the end of 2012 is going to come from the new president’s change of policies
The Peso I expected to remain relatively unchanged during the latter part of 2011 and a sense that things were settling down in spring 2012 with a positive end to the year for the currency.
This was more or less true. The Peso traded within a small range in late 2011; however it strengthened in early 2012 before weakening in the pre-election phase (something I missed). Since then it has been stable.
80% (good generally but perhaps too vague about the event triggers
 
Brazil
My Brazil forecasts do far have been my biggest weakness; let’s see what this period brings.
With a new president since the start of 2011, I anticipated that the mid 2011 period would herald positive consolidation despite less positive change in the background.  The year would end well.
In early 2012 I didn’t expect much change to this. My view was that things would appear to be going well but the outcomes might not be so clear to people. 
In line with the 2011 expectations, by the end of 2011, Brazil's economy had become the world’s sixth-largest.
Rousseff has enacted measures to weaken Brazil's currency by about 27 percent; push interest rates to an all-time low of 7.25 percent; and cajole private-sector banks into lending more and at lower rates.
The economy slowed unexpectedly in Q3 2012 although it I still positive.
A very detailed forecast but still not really saying anything useful.
30%
 
Real
The Real chart did show shifts from mid 2011 – with possible monetary restrictions mid 2011. In 2012 there were some mixed signals for the currency, it looked positive around May but there could be background problems. July looked positive too. August however suggested a shift but not one that would cause immediate concern. I saw decline in Real strength in Sept and expected the currency to be out of favour oct/Nov although December would moderate the new phase of adjustments.
The Real began to weaken in the second half of 2011, with volatility as suggested due to the lack of clear direction. It weakened again in early 2012 vs. the dollar but has remained within a small range since June.
So a really (pun inevitable) bad forecast there.
20%
 
Argentina
I thought things would still have been going well by the start of the period in question. Other than some mild problems I expected more of the same for the rest of 2011.
In 2012, although seeing a broadly pleasant environment continuing, I noted there may be a tricky time around March but that the stability would remain to July. Aug/Sept I thought some old issue might come back to haunt the county but that these issues would be resolved by the year end.
 The second half of 2011 was not markedly different from what had one before but growth has taken a turn for the worse in 2012
In March first quarter reports showed a definite downturn in many statistics. In April it announced the nationalisation of YPF (oil & gas).
Later in the year the president’s popularity plummeted in the year to August and Moody’s forecast ( not actual) downgraded the country’s rating in Sept 2012 although Argentina and in October a  U.S. appeals court in ordered Argentina to begin paying ‘holdout’ vulture funds old debts although a Nov letter from the NY Fed then gave an alternative view. The Falklands debate was also reactivated in the year.
70% (good on events less good on background themes). Disappointing as this is usually one of my best forecasts
 
Argentinean Peso
The Peso would be holding its value in late 2011, maybe with a blip in December. February in 2012 the stability would become more entrenched.  Some other difficulties were indicated in July/Aug but the signs pointed to fair valuation by the year end
Currency controls were imposed in Sept 2011 but the Peso was more affected by the overall economic position losing 20% of its value (gradually and steadily) against the dollar over the 18 month period.
50%
 
Venezuela
While at the mid-point of 2011 I expected Venezuela to be riding out any global problems well, I expected some change thereafter with the beginnings of a shake up or upsets. So a good year economically but perhaps with unrest later on.
In 2012 – I noted the coming Saturn return and potential for hardship. However the economic power would not be substantially reduced in the first part of the year. I expected some media coverage in June but then the Saturn return in October looked challenging and I expected quite radical events by the year end.
The reality was that the country closed 2011 with double the forecast growth due primarily to oil price increases and the start of 2011 was good. But difficulties were appearing- booms in housing and inefficiencies in investment were increased problems.
Chavez was reelected in October 2012, but in June 2011 Chávez had an operation to remove a tumor He required a second operation in December 2012 and his health and even survival is now subject to significant questions. [5] The arrest of a doctor for revealing state secrets in June/July seems to have been the manifestation of the communication issue I saw for that time
85% (another bonus for getting the Dec 2012 upset)
 
The bolivar
I thought that there might be both a tendency for inflation and restraints over that inflation (i.e. monetary control) in the latter part of 2011.
In 2012 I noted that the beginning of the year a key transit to the chart might be the herald a re-vamp of the currency later, I expected increased trade in the currency in June but other than this little more news for 2012. It was a case of watch this space for 2013-14.
In fact the currency, officially pegged, but trading on black market fell from 8 to 14 against the dollar in 2012 and commentators wondered about the likelihood of devaluation – but the government were saying no.
75% for spotting potential in advance of the herd.
 
South Africa
While having reservation about the re-activation of a difficult aspect in the country’s chart I thought that mid 2011 looked good for the government and economy. But I expected the latter months to be more difficult due to global events.
I thought there might be some change in early 2012, and some noticeable economic issues. I then expected a series of mainly economic changes until June when I though the government might see some difficulties. But while seeing a big mid -year turning point and expecting changes I felt any leadership shift was still in the evolutionary stage and actually would manifest later. Furthermore there was a suggestion of mis-information anyway.
There were opposition objections to proposals to buy a new presidential jet in June on the basis that money should be spent on alleviating poverty and there was  a wave of  strikes, mainly  in mining  which crippled the sector, but also farming in Aug –Oct. 2012 which led to growth forecasts being revised own to 2.5% . Other than that the future election PR was only just starting to get underway by the end of the year.
75% - but with upside for the future developments
 
 The Rand
I expected the Rand to come under the microscope around Aug -Oct 2011 and the possibility of re-evaluations.
In 2012 I saw a brief increase in trading early on followed by talk about what shape the currency should take going forward. I thought that the last months might bring currency restrictions.
In actuality, there was shift in the Rand in 2011. Having topped out against the dollar in Q3 2011 it started to fall again. While early 2012 saw some gains being made for a while the trend thereafter was down and some credit agencies downgraded the country.
However I get bigger brownie points for my comment about the hard currency forecast as on 11 February 2012, President Zuma announced that the country would be issuing a complete set of banknotes bearing Nelson Mandela's image. Although trivial in an economic sense it is symbolically important and the fact that such a matter can be identified in the charts is evidence of the enormous capacity of the astrology.
 85% (75% for the general forecast 95% for the brownie points)
 
Saudi Arabia
As the major oil nation Saudi was protected from the worst of the global crisis. However I did think that the country’s economy could be affected by events in October 2011 which looked like a critical point.
More key was the November 2011 turning point even touching the rulers but by early 2012 matters were expected to be calmer. External events would cast a damper over Feb-Sept 2012, but the most interesting forecast was for the new cycle starting Nov 2012 suggesting change might be coming to the country.
Saudi Arabia had a prosperous year in 2011, and 2012, however a few things confirm what the chart indicated, First there were suggestions that the country invest in some of the Euro country bonds during the crisis- although Saudi resisted the idea and the crisis certainly created some debate as Euro countries are Saudi’s main trading partners. But in the end the crisis was managed by 2012 and had little impact on Saudi’s growth.
Secondly the other turning point noted: there was an increase in women’s rights – the intention to allow them the vote next time was noted in sept 2011, there were also a number of protests by various groups that occurred from 2011 to 2012 triggered by the Arab Spring but on a lower scale.
So Saudi was not unscathed just well insulated.
75-80%
 
Iran and Israel
Finally on my list is Iran and Israel. Unfortunately I have bored with their shenanigans and wish neither existed anymore. Added to which often Israel transits     show internal (Palestinian) conflict instead. So I didn’t bother to predict anything for 2011 or 2012. Luckily nothing major happened –just the usual tedious rhetoric and undermining 

Asia - A review of 2011-12


China and the Renminbi                 
I predicted a mixed year for China in 2011- somewhat a state of flux. Although I did think there was potential for fraud or illusion in the Renminbi chart in the summer.
2012 saw the perfection of the Uranus square in the Chine chart. All change. I saw challenge to existing leadership tempered by diplomacy. I saw new regime (evolved or changed) by the end of the year. Don’t forget I was writing in mid 2008…..
And in fact of course there was indeed a perfectly civilised transfer of power to Xi.  Or. as the Telegraph put it,  The Chinese Communist party has just been through its most interesting year since 1976’
In the context of China a leadership change is major change however initiated and we look with interest to the future.
I also thought that China might reach a significant point in economic position re US by the end of the year too. Well only so far as the OECD announced that by 2016 China might exceed US economically. As far as I am concerned that shows the change in the balance I expected.
With the Renminbi I predicted a consolidation that would get a grip on its international value. Managed revaluation continued as did discussions about trade in the currency outside China. China does appear to be slowly moving to having RMB a globally recognised alternative to the dollar. And in late November China Construction Bank became the first Chinese bank to issue a bond denominated in renminbi in London.
90% (85 for RMB and 95 for politics)
 
Shanghai Composite
I predicted a positive summer (actually not so much though July was good) and volatile last quarter (yes) in this market in 2011. Falls were specifically predicted in September (Yes it did) 
In early 2012 I thought there would be confusion and misinformation but optimism and the markets rose into the end of Feb.
I predicted the start of big re-evaluation of fundamentals after this and that the changes in the country would impinge on the index in the long run and that it would be generally positive. I saw a turning point in July, less in overall market value more in long term credibility of companies surviving into 2013. The market actually fell throughout the whole of the second half of the year which doesn’t in itself suggest positives.  But it improved over the full year, China Securities issued over 70 new policies in 2012. And there was view that the markets had finally stepped into the new times of “survival of the fittest”.
So pretty much full marks for my China forecasts then!
95%
 
Hong Kong Dollar
Ok I stick my neck out on this forecast and predicted that the currency would disappear by the end of 2012. Wrong! Although the changes in the Renminbi already discussed might pave the way for this later..
My chart showed a key point around May 2012. The only noteworthy event was that Prof Joseph Yam, the former head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), recently published a working paper suggesting a review of the dollar peg. Although rejected by the HKMA the paper did ignite the debate about the currency’s future and commentators suggested a link to the RMB was more likely, which I suppose counts as a forecasting win if a muted one.
55%
 
Hang Seng
As I’ve said before this index is dominated by a few companies and therefore is likely to reflect events in certain sectors/overseas etc.
I saw the second half of 2011 as being positive for the index. But the second quarter was very tricky, with a big drop in both July and late September, even though the last three months ended up a little.
2012 I predicted the themes would continue. With a bit of a boom (volumes more than prices) around May 2012 and continued momentum throughout the year with a key moment around August. My only reservation was around the end of the year.
It was indeed a good year for the index. However my forecast of a key positive point in May was ill founded. This represented the most significant fall of the year due to external Eurozone issues. And no problems developed near the end of the year either. While the overall trend was right I don’t feel I called the turns well on this one.
Hong Kong therefore gets my forecasting thumbs down.
40%
 
Japan and the yen
My forecasts for the country were very briefly positive for summer 2011, with a return to the issues that caused the spring problems by September. This was sort of true, as following Fukushima resolution there was a period of relief that it had not been even worse before the real underlying problems were addressed.
Years of political paralysis continued after the disaster, with Naoto Kan resigning as prime minister in August 2011. He was replaced by Yoshihiko Noda, who became the country’s fifth new leader in six years.
I expected better news economically by November; although the underlying situation would remain challenging there could be signs of change in its global economic activity. In fact the Economist reported that Corporate Japan was on an overseas shopping spree. Japanese firms spent a record $80 billion on some 620 foreign companies in 2011, according to Dealogic
However in 2012, I felt that there was still an underlying lack of direction/resolution Nevertheless I expected that things would be looking more positive and there could be attempts to improve the long term position in the first part of the year.
I expected the situation and external events to start to spoil any changes towards the end of the year. And so it proved with The Bank of Japan embarkeing on more easing steps in the first quarter, and good growth in Q1 and lower growth in Q2. The accuracy continued with the BBC saying in November  Japan's economy contracted in the July to September quarter, as a global economic slowdown and anti-Japan protests in China hit exports, while domestic consumption remained subdued.  Then a drop in November production exceeded all forecasts. In the end Mr. Noda dissolved the lower house of Parliament, setting the scene for elections in December 2012 which elected the LDP.
For the yen I predicted some weakness in May to July 2011, although I qualified this by saying it was only in the general scheme of things rather than in the way of other currency weaknesses. Interestingly the Yen continued to strengthen against the Dollar but fell vs. the Swiss Franc and the non-Euro/Dollar currencies at this time.
I went for appreciation in most of the second half of the year but with a reduction in the trend in the last months. This proved pretty much spot on (no pun intended) vs. the dollar
In 2012 I saw the Yen being depressed after a flat January until about May, with a stable position till august. Then some weaker months around October and into a more challenging December when the fundamentals would be under review.  Again – almost exactly right and all the more impressive to spot the shift in direction vs. the dollar after years of appreciation.
90%
 
Nikkei
Mostly I saw the Nikkei being depressed in the latter half of 2011 with some summer volatility and a small rally in August followed by more volatility in difficult trends. And this wasn’t far short of the mark. The Nikkei even fell below its March (earthquake) lows in the November.
In 2012 I saw early volatility being positively subdued through March but overvaluation by April with no trend throughout the summer – I said being out of the marker would be no loss either way between April and September. Sure enough the market stuttered in January, rose to the end of March (I was a little off on the exact turn) then fell again into a series of fluctuations until November.
However, while I noted that Saturn would cease to be a problem in October, I didn’t anticipate much change in the last months when in fact the market rose considerably – over 20% in 6 weeks as the Yen fell. Although obviously if you had followed the forecast you would have been back in the market after September and benefitted from this. Also in the scheme of my longer term forecasting the market has only returned to around pre-earthquake levels so predicting a boom would have been misleading.
75%
 
India and Rupee
There was a real evolutionary feel to my forecasts for 2011-12 with major rolling power issues to contend with throughout rather than separate themes per year.
I forecast that June 2011 would see a change in India’s focus such as its [international] relationships and that there would be increasing issues related to the balance between political and corporate interests by September. I expected a change in the balance of power in November 2011.
There was in fact increased emphasis on environmental health with the formation of a Green Tribunal.  . Attempts were made at legislation due to corruption scandals etc. especially in November but they were hampered, and of course the growth rate for the year was lower than expected due to the international economic situation. , The Sun/Pluto aspect also manifested in November when an   Indian representative was elected to head the Joint Inspection Unit, the UN’s only external oversight body
In 2012, although there would be opportunities, India was also to be affected by the Pluto Uranus square meaning challenges. I expected strict policies to be implemented by September – many relating to corporations and that these would begin to take effect in the last quarter.
 In practice the increasingly number of scandals relating govt license sales etc. did result middle class protests and in the government trying to implement policies despite opposition including loosening caps on foreign direct investment in some sectors. India also suffered one of the world's worst power blackouts ever, in July
Monetary wise in 2011 I forecast and more financial restriction leading to a stabilisation of reserves by the year end. Some relaxation was expected in the currency by April 2012 and more stability overall by the end of 2012
The rate was in fact increased 5 times between May and November 2011 and reduced it in April 2012 making no more changes in that year !!!
RBI latest interest rate changes
change date
percentage
April 17 2012
8.000 %
October 25 2011
8.500 %
September 16 2011
8.250 %
July 26 2011
8.000 %
June 16 2011
7.500 %
may 03 2011
7.250 %
march 17 2011
6.750 %
January 25 2011
6.500 %
November 02 2010
6.250 %
September 16 2010
6.000 %
 
90% (80 for politics and 100 for the rate changes)
 Sensex
I foresaw a wait and see attitude through summer 2011 and restructuring in October November leading to another wait and see period at the year end. I expected 2012 to start mixed, leading to a bit of a boom in June and positive direction by August – with the latter part of the year solid .I
In actuality – there was pretty much no action from June to August 2011, then falls in September and fluctuations in Oct/Nov with no direction. In 2012 I did miss a rise early on although this was eliminated by May. There was not such an increase as I expected around June and August (although the market rose in both) and a very solid end to the year.
65%
 So For India I struggled with the interpretation of the astrology even though it played   out exactly as the planets indicated, for the RBOI I can only describe my results as spectacular !
 
India/Pakistan relations etc.
I didn’t find much correlation between Pakistan and India’s charts in this time suggesting that whilst tensions might remain internally, those between the 2 nations would not be notable. And so it proved.
I thought May 2011 would be tricky and highlighted July as a watch date in India. Although May was not notable July saw 26 killed in blasts in Mumbai but a change of focus by year end towards Corporations.
In Pakistan I expected the latter months of the year October on to be more difficult than June-Sept. In fact the level of violence was fairly constant throughout. However post OBL killing relations with the US deteriorated over this period
In 2012 I had nothing to add to India than I had already stated economically. In Pakistan I expected continuing challenges to any ability to govern, and obviously the country’s     political and economic woes continue. The Prime Minister resigned and was replaced in May/June Elections are due soon, although these are full term elections.
75%
 
South Korea
I expected the economic situation in SK to already be difficult by mid 2011 with no significant improvement until 2012. I expected the first three months of 2012 to be strong economically and politically. However I thought that there may be some unexpected events later in the year and perhaps technological glitches. 
2011 was worse in GDP growth terms than 2010, although still better than in 2008-9: exports were lower than planned.  2012 was not much better however as exports continued subdued to the global effects. However the upside was that inflation had moderated to a 12 year low by the end of the first half of the year. The bank of Korea repeatedly cut rates.
I am not sure about glitches – the only ones I could find were related to the attempt to launch a space rocket rather than in products or web experience. Of course the biggest unexpected SK   event was the global success of Psy’S Video.
65%
 
North Korea
NK is always a difficult country to comment on as news is rare and unreliable. So validating my forecasts can be hard
I saw a turning point in the country around July 2011, and the start of a new era from August – suggesting that there might be more inclination for conflict then or the start of a more open approach to the world. Not frankly very helpful not to be able to decide between the two was it?
As it were tensions from 2010 to early 2011 calmed down in this period. I expected a big surprise at the end of the year. Hmmmmm. Quite! On the 17th of December 2011 the Supreme Leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-il died from a heart attack and was replaced by his son Jong-Un
In 2012 I expected the first half to be very tricky with definite potential for aggression- with problems in June/July too but with more stability later in the year.
Having finished mourning there was an aborted rocket launch in April which did not go down well with the international community. An army leader was deposed in July. There were also major floods in July.
Given my uncertainty as to whether this would be aggression or openness it is hard to say whether these represent fulfilment of the predictions or not!
70% (50 % generally but a bonus for the Dec surprise!)
 
Indonesia
I didn’t spend much time on Indonesia and forecasts were sparse.
I though the currency might do well in 2011.Otherwise my forecast for later 2011 was for a tough business and or political environment. In 2012, other than a possible military clampdown in May I didn’t predict much other than more of the same.
The brunt of fallout in Indonesia from the global turmoil was borne by financial market, led by the stock and bond markets, while impact on the real sector was comparatively minimal. In the financial sector, the decision by some investors to pull out foreign capital during the second half of 2011 put pressure on the rupiah, Government bond yields and share prices. However As of 2011 labor militancy was increasing in Indonesia with a major strike at the Grasberg mine and numerous strikes elsewhere and in terms of poverty and healthcare it is still developing slowly. Apparently this is because Indonesia’s struggle against the vested interests of the economic elite, which often distorts or adversely influences government policies, is generally ineffective or unsuccessful. In 2012 its GDP grew by over 6% but the structural difficulties in the background are what show in my forecast.
Not May but nearly …on June 8, 2012, the Indonesian Police told AFP that one person was killed and 17 wounded when Indonesian soldiers opened fire on civilians after a deadly dispute sparked by a road accident in Papua province. But the bigger clampdown in 2012 in the end turned out to be economic protectionism (ban on metal exports among other things).
55%
 
Australia
I saw the emergence of conflicting factors in Australia in 2011 after a benign few years. I saw a critical point in October but a bit more stability for the currency by December.
In early 2012 I saw the beginnings of some real economic issues.  And a potentially politically serious time in March/April tempered by the still moderately pleasant backdrop.  I expected sudden policy change in July an impact on the commodity industry by September. Leadership challenges were expected around October with the picture continuing at the end of 2012.
Sue enough while Australia remains a success story among Westernised economies, however tourism and exports are suffering due to the A$ strength and the growth rate started to fall in 2012.  House prices fell and the central bank cut rates right down again and with more stable commodity prices the mining boom is stalling.  Commentators see all this as a sign of the end of the good times.
In Oct 2011 there were some protests and strikes but other than a number of state elections there does not appear to have been any key new political issues around October 2012.
As to the commodity shift -in late August 2012 BHP Billiton, the biggest miner in the world, froze plans to expand the vast Olympic Dam mine in South Australia, citing the rising costs involved, as profits fell, one of a number of indicators that things were indeed changing.
Although volatile on a daily basis, looking at longer terms trends we see that the currency did in fact begin to settle into to a range vs. the us dollar at the end of 2011.
90% (economically pretty perfect – one political miscall).