A few months ago, I
might have decided to leave Israel off the list as it had become totally and
utterly predictable.
However the arrival of Trump and Co at the White House has
changed the dynamic. It looks on the surface as if the new administration will
be good for Israel hardliners- but there is some indication that it is a case
of be careful what you wish for.
2017
Israel are certainly attempting to take advantage of the new
US relationship already , approving a large number of new settlements in the
days since the inauguration. It is interesting to note though that the expansiveness,
while looking like strength on the surface, is not necessarily favourable to
the leadership or the image of the country. There is some indication that the
people are feeling somewhat fearful.
This mood may even intensify between March and May.
Furthermore there may be surprises in store in relation to partnerships with
other nations, some of which will be positive, but not all. There may be a real
push regarding the new settlements or other matters, none of which bodes very
well for the Palestinians. There ae echoes of the events of around August 2005
especially in relation to the Gaza strip. A very unstable time for the country
it seems.
This time also represents the start of a 3 year long period
where there is confusion or deception regarding the country’s security or
intelligence.
June to August sees the people feeling more positive. The
pressure on the Palestinians seems to continue, but again this is not entirely
favourable for the leadership.
However, more relevant is an increase in the country’s confidence
and belligerence, they may make some put of the blue attacks now which is
potentially very concerning for surrounding nations. Although the echoes in
this case are mainly in relation to the events of 1987 (the first
Palestinian intifada) and 2002- which include not only “defensive
shield” but also both issues relating to relations with Iran and an
adamant statement on Iraq’s alleged nuclear programme. Put these together and
one might deduce that as well as events re Palestine statements in 2017 will
relate to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. One hopes they will just be statements.
September and October see this mood continuing. Both the
more aggressive stance and the pressure on the Palestinian people. And there
may be some unpleasant effects as things backfire.
We certainly see the country making the most of its ability
to grow its power and forces now. However there is a risk that the government
overdoes the policy.
Given that the period resonates with Iran’s “wipe out Israel
speech of October 2005” this does not bode well.
Though not all is bad as the period also hints at October
1993 and the Oslo accords re Palestine. It also echoes October 1993 and Sadat’s
assassination.
Interestingly there is evidence that the Israeli leadership
may be changing in nature too as a30 year phase ends.
This would certainly explain why in November and December
there seems to be a difference of opinion between the leadership and the
people.
There may also be some push back on the policies and actions
of the last 12 months. Again there are more echoes of 1987. There is definitely a change of mood and not
really for the better. Once again the whole foundations of the country are
being shaken up.
January and February 2018 are more mixed. There may be
positive surprises regarding the Palestinian issue. But the risk of the
country’s foundations being disrupted somewhat continues. It certainly doesn’t
feel good for them and the Israeli people in general.
On the other hand there may be general dissatisfaction and once more a tendency for the leadership
to overstep its remit.
March to May could see protests and more. It is quite an
unstable time for the people as a whole. Once again there may be a temptation
to harness force to attack others.
However this may well create a bigger backlash than before
and there is some threat to stability of the leadership.
June to August are mixed months, when the dissatisfaction of
the people continues. It is tricky but there is less potential for actual
confrontation. There may be financial issues to contend with.
September and October continue the same story. Once again
there is some pressure on the leadership and the need to adjust some policies
becomes more important. The people are benefiting from the mood though. It is a transitionary phase.
November and December see the start of one final aggressive
streak.
However there is a sense of limitation of resources now, and
economic or other pressures may make any attempts to push through policy mostly
impotent.
In fact, all actions now may peter out or become self-
defeating. Unlike 2017 when actions were mostly unimpeded this is a more
delicate time.
January and February 2019, sees a continuance of November
and December conditions. Although actions are more moderated now, it isn’t a
particularly nice time when harsh pressures are felt. But by the end of the 2
months there is also a significant attempt to increase growth and influence
which might put the country more in the wider news during this year.
March to May is still tricky though outright conflict may be
reduced again. There is some confusion regarding the direction of the country
and possibly some economic difficulties. More significantly there could be
shocks that unsettle both the people and the leadership.
June to august, while continuing the tricky and not
especially pleasant phase isn’t particularly eventful either.
September to November
once again picks up the pace though. There may be another period of upsets for
the people and they may feel deceived or pushed into unnecessary economic
positions now. There is still a tendency to forced expansiveness and this will
once more risk a backlash and cause the leadership to have to make adjustments.
December is quieter, though not without further challenge to
the leadership.
2020 is a year when
the country is likely to be very much in the limelight.
January and February still see pressures on the leadership
and a continued sense of deception or confusion for the people
The situation escalates in March to July. There is a
potential to harness huge power this does not have to be a negative situation,
but it will definitely cause huge changes to the financial and other structures
of the country. It seems this is mostly to the benefit of the leadership at the time though the people may
be less comfortable.
August to September has more of the tone of January and
February – where things are just challenging. It may be difficult to find
accord between the groups including the Palestinians. But really there is
nothing new here, just more of the same.
October and November see things coming to a head in this
country as in many others- The people are actively upset now though and this
may lead to a break up or other disruption between various parties.
Although the issues remain in the background (
and are likely to be reactivated to some extent in Spring 2021) by the year end
things will have moderated somewhat. There may be a new foundation or
government formed around now as the environment changes a great deal.
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