Saturday, 28 June 2014

World Cup 2014- update last 16

I’ve found, that the national charts are marginally more useful when compared to the end of the game rather than the beginning. That’s when you see the outcome in terms of mood. (The beginning of the game reflects more the expectation).

The problem with this in the intermediate stages is that comparing the chart to the end of the game can’t be done effectively as it might or might go to extra time/penalties. This is not the case at the group stage and is less of an issue for the final because the impact is greater.

I’m going to look at the games though and hope that most get resolved in the 90mins.

 Brazil vs Chile
Brazil’s chart is mildly better – though there is not a lot in it, but Chile’s shows the most notable synastry with the end of the match ( MC cnj MC , ASC opp ASC p) though I’m not sure whether than opposition is good or bad. The positive influence of Jupiter is getting stronger for Brazil though and weaker for Chile so I think they will win this one, perhaps after extra time.

Colombia vs Uruguay
The chart sun is conjoining Colombia’s progressed sun and MC. There is no much going on for Uruguay so I think, on balance, this one goes to Colombia.

 In both the above cases I have still the same teams advancing as I did in my earlier exercise but in the next game that can’t be the case

Netherlands vs Mexico
Jupiter’s influence is waning a little for NL but it still squares prog Mercury. The sun is square NL progressed Sun too. Their position is not as strong as in the group stage.

In Mexico’s chart the Sun is at the IC and sextiles Jupiter progressed though transiting Jupiter’s positive influence is now separating too.

It ‘s hard but the clincher for me is Mars on NL progressed Jupiter sextile Neptune. I think this gives them the edge in terms of energy – that particularly would be good if the game exceeds normal time or goes to penalties.

Greece vs Costa Rica
Still surprised astrologically to see Greece make it out of the Group stage. Even more surprised, non astrologically, to see Costa Rica here. I haven’t done the chart yet but Greece’s still isn’t looking particularly encouraging all round. Costa Rica to go forward.

The other games I’ve already predicted.


Thursday, 26 June 2014

World Cup 2014 - after group stages

Well, as we know, things didn’t go exactly to plan in all the groups!!!

 Group A
Although I correctly noted that Brazil wouldn’t shine as brightly as expected, I incorrectly predicted Croatia would do better than Mexico. My notes suggested Croatia’s chart for the last game looked more promising but could be because I misattributed an aspect for Mexico as negative when in fact it was positive. Still looks closer than it was though.

Group B
I struggled with my prediction here and didn’t know why. It soon became apparent. Like everyone else I didn’t conceive of Spain leaving so early. Once they did the outcome for NL and Chile (both ending up with a similar situation) made sense.

Astrologically a medium term cycle came to an end for Spain ( interestingly it did exactly the same as within the same 24 hours the new king took over too…..).

Group C
My problem here was Greece and specifically their last game. I just messed up. I can see far more testimonies for success in hindsight ( isn’t hindsight so often refreshingly right!?).

Group D
My spectacular problem here was discounting Costa Rica before I even started although this does not reflect any weakness in the astrology- just my own knowledge of global football teams! I’m assuming the difficulties in Uraguay’s chart at the end of the group reflects Suarez’s little foray into mild cannibalism.!

Group’s E-H ended up exactly as predicted. That’s something at least.

So, I’ll revisit at the first 4 winners before they play the next round.


Friday, 6 June 2014

FIFA World Cup 2014

 First my declaration of interests:
First, my brief  and totally non- astrological analysis done a few months ago led me to a final 4 of Spain, Germany Brazil and Argentina. Goldman Sachs now agree with this! ( Really? I would have given them my guesses for a fraction of the price!!)  But whereas they have Brazil and Argentina ( see chart at the end of this post) in the final I had Spain and Germany with Germany narrowly pipping Spain to the title. This was of course completely uninformed deduction, but I am aware that one goes into these things with confirmation bias.

Secondly, I am not an England supporter and usually support The Netherlands followed by Spain on the grounds of nice to watch football. I want them to win so might be inclined to look for confirmation of this too.
Thirdly, my attempts at interpreting the Brazil chart in the past have been very poor. And it will be further complicated by the location of the tournament – separating the country’s economic benefits from trophy success is likely to be difficult at best.

And fourthly, I will always be tempted to plump for the outsider if there is a chance because I love drama, so I have to watch my choices carefully to see that no ‘drama bias’ drops in.

Now my approach:
I’m using country charts; on the basis of the mood of the nation. Obviously this can only be applied to big international competitions.  I found it worked quite well last time, but it does have some limitations. If a country isn’t a major footballing nation emotionally ( e.g. USA) the result is less likely to show up in the chart

I already work with charts for the following countries ( list 1) and where I have a chart I’ve used it regardless of my expectation for progression.

UK ( arguably the England chart should be used but with pubs in Wales being allowed to stay open for England matches I think we can reasonably apply the 1801 chart).  Brazil,     Argentina ,   Mexico  , USA , Japan,  South Korea ,  France , Germany,   Greece,  Spain,  Italy,  Switzerland,  Australia,  Iran

I’ve used commonly used charts for the following ( list 2) but have never applied them for any other reason so don’t know if they will work for me

 Croatia,  Chile,  Netherlands , Ivory Coast, Uraguay , Ecuador,  Nigeria ( but I relocated to Abuja the new capital), Portugal, Algeria

To avoid overburdening myself I have ignored teams not in list 1 which my original analysis didn’t expect to progress:

Cameroon, Costa, Rica, Honduras, Bosnia H, Ghana,

Using the charts I focus on a mix of transits and progressions.  The group games for each team are known so these form the basis of the initial forecasts. After this stage there are too many dependencies to use the actual charts of intermediate matches, ( i.e. which teams play each  other and on what day and also when the matches end as they could easily go to extra time and penalties). So, merely dynamic transits are reviewed.

Synastry with the final opening and closing charts is possible for all teams so this is also applied where it looks like a country will or may progress from the group stages.

I’ll return at the end of the group stages to update for any miscalls in readiness for the next stages.

 I focus on strong positive connections from transiting mars and Jupiter ( especially if supported by outer planets), and strong positive connections to natal/progressed mars, Jupiter, sun and moon. Indicators that all is not well are hard aspects to these by Saturn and Uranus (upsets) and also in relation to Mars and the Moon squares to Neptune ( makes Mars ineffective and with Moon shows disappointment for that country’s people/fans).

Mercury would usually play a lesser role but with the retrograde is likely to prove direction changing.

Key dates when there may be drama or a change in favourite then are:
 21st June when Sun changes signs
              23rd June when Mars opposes Uranus
              27th June new moon
               1 July after Mercury goes direct
                8th July when Sun squares Uranus
               The final when Mercury changes signs

 Curious how closely this ties with the competition stages……..that’s the way of the Universe…

Right, here we go:

 Group A

Brazil’s start to the competition is somewhat lacklustre, though they might win in the last minutes.  We must remember that there is a lot of expectation for Brazil, they are expected to sail through so any good performance won’t show as an event – it would have to be extraordinary. There is however nothing bad enough to suggest they have to leave at this stage.  So they ‘ll do ok and progress,  though Croatia might end up topping the group following their final game with Mexico on 23rd  .

 It is Croatia who seem to have the best performance ( though possibly in comparison to expectation) at this stage.

There is nothing too convincing or exciting in Mexico’s chart. I assume this is where they go home.


Group B

This is a much more mixed prospect than A and much, much harder to call. I ‘m thinking  there might be some draws which confuse the final tally.

 Australia don’t look set to progress, but they may cause some upsets in the ordering of the other teams 

Spain’s first match is against the Netherlands – given that these were the two finalists in 2010 ( and, as mentioned, my favourite teams!) this should be a cracker. But it is also likely to be decisive for the Netherlands. Spain’s chart looks better for the match so I think they will win that one but it might be a draw thus altering the order of the final table.

 Chile’s start looks good against Australia but not stunning.

 In the next games it looks like NL does beat Australia. Again Spain and Chile could go either way.

 It’s all down to that final game to determine the group leader. The Netherlands  chart is highly activated at the end of the match – one assumes this is because it is dependent on the outcome of the other game too, and possibly not just the result but the goals etc.  In fact all three charts show indicators for this match end; it really is all to play for. The only way I can deduce the next step is by looking forward to the next rounds.

Group C

There is nothing particularly exciting about the Greek charts, they could potentially lose all three matches.  Japan’s position is very active – there may be some controversy associated with their games and even an inquiry. They are well matched with Colombia – it is hard to call –having beaten Greece it will al depend on the last game against Ivory Coast.  

I think that the balance of their first two matches slightly favours  Colombia who may know that they will qualify by the game against Japan.

Which leaves it down to Ivory Coast vs Japan in the last matches, Ivory coast will probably beat Greece and be waiting on the Japan result- and japan might surprise with a win against Colombia. The table order might come down to who scored what against who. My money is on IC to go to the next round with Colombia- just. 

Group D

This looks to be a tough group. None of the charts show large amounts of positive notes.

Uruguay’s chart is at best mixed for the period. Every game could seem like an endurance test although they have the right qualities for that. Having said that they will probably win the first game in the end and then struggle. It doesn’t appear that they progress to the next round.

Given that I’ve assumed Costa Rica do not either, this means It is a choice between England and Italy to top the group table. It looks like Italy will top the table – their last game looks the most decisive of the whole group and in their favour, though England’s last game is also their least difficult.


Group E

To start with there doesn’t seem to be much between the members of this group ; although France will probably beat Honduras it won’t be dramatic. But by the second batch of matches things are clearer as Ecuador surprisingly struggles.

 So, it’s down to whether Switzerland or France top the group. And France looks to have the edge in the third matches.


Group F
The group stages start tough for Argentina but get easier as they get into their stride. They’ll unsurprisingly get through. 

Nigeria’s chart for the period of the groups is excellent. They look like getting through and may aquit themselves very well indeed against Argentina in the last group game. It wouldn’t be impossible for Nigeria to top the table, but I’m going with this as unlikely and that the excitement is about getting to the next stage.  

 From this it is not difficult to work out that both teams beat Iran, Iran are least likely to progress anyway and nothing I can see suggests otherwise. Indeed Iran might have other issues to worry about since their chart is quiet challenging generally at this time.


Group G
Another group which is quite tight.

Germany’s  initial chart is moderately good, though not stunning. Their second game is much better and the third ok again. They will progress and might even be favourites by  this point.

 Portugal ‘s  chart is not that different. But it appears Germany just have enough to pip them in game 1.  Portugal’s best game is the one vs. Ghana. So what will determine the final group is how they fare vs the USA.

The USA don’t have the positives that Germany does, but look to be steady. Both their games vs Ghana and Portugal are mildly positive for them. This one is one of the hardest calls of the group stages, but I’m going to go with USA to progress by the skin of their teeth and Portugal to be knocked out on points at the end of the group stage.



Group H
No country has a more active chart at the beginning of their completion than Belgium. I think we can safely say they win game 1  against Algeria.

 Their second chart is moderately good too. So let’s assume they do better than Russia too. Although there is less drama in the third match, it looks like Belgium might be going through with 9 points.

 Algeria’s chart is not to bad though, they will probably score against Belgium even if they don’t win and its looks like they will beat South Korea.

 Russia have lost of opportunities but they have to work very hard for results. They probably beat Korea, but it doesn’t look clear cut.

So it is probably down to who wins the Algeria/Russia match to see who goes through. There is a very slight bias in the charts towards Algeria.  But this one is close.

From 16 to 1

There are a lot of countries that show substantial activity for the final. This is surprising as, unless we enter some sort of parallel multidimensional universe between now and then, only two will be in it!

It gives me some problems but  I will update after the group stages when things start o become clearer.

Last 16
 It is really academic who progressed out of Chile and the Netherlands as their journey ends here – whether to  Croatia or Brazil is academic. Although curiously they both  show positive activity ON Final day.

The question lies over the other 3 :  Brazil, Spain and Croatia and who is playing who. Spain look like winners at this stage which means one of the others must go.

Croatia still have substantial strength, but definitely don’t have the momentum to take them to the final.

Brazil are again not as stunning as was hoped, but again are likely to progress

Colombia  have a general positive air – though they lack anything dramatic. If they play England, as forecast above , they will probably win.

Based on the group forecasts we’re assuming the Ivorians play Italy. Both are looking good chart wise but the IC has the best progression prospects afterwards so I’m going to pick them

Argentina should beat Switzerland, who don’t have much excitement associated with the rest of the competition ( although excitement is probably not something associated with Switzerland anyway!)

Assuming Nigeria have progressed, they look likely to lose to France, certainly their chances are much slimmer throughout the rounds after the groups

Germany will likely be playing Algeria and surprisingly this is also hard to call. Algeria’s chart has few difficulties, yet rationally we should be going with Germany. I’m going to call it for Germany but only because logic decrees it. In either case the paths will be similar throughout the rest of the competition anyway.

The USA can win their next match ( which probably will be versus Belgium).



Quarter finals

Brazil, assuming they are still in the competition start to show their form,. This might be their bets performance of the tournament and they may be favourites at the end of this stage.

Spain will progress, (as long as they’ve made it through the last 16 that is). In the unlikely event that Croatia’s is there instead, their form is dissipating – they will definitely leave in this round if they have not done so already.

Colombia start to struggle. Their chances are weakening. I doubt they will make the semis and certainly not the final.

Argentina continue to look good , presumably knocking out the US 

 France are also doing well and are capable of disposing of Germany now.

 Whatever happens at the round of 16 Italy aren’t likely to make the quarter finals and definitely not the semis so I can’t see them winning in 2014. Which means it is quite likely that Ivory Coast are in this round, This could put them up against Brazil at the time the latter are on form. So I will assume they leave now. But they do have a great chart on finals day!

I’m thinking Brazil go out at this stage. There doesn’t seem to be anything to suggest they are the centre of attention in the final.

Spain can progress to the final, but on balance I don’t think they will either.

Which leaves us with Argentina and France. The latter  might explain the positive mood in both Ivory Coast and Algeria on finals day.

Based on the close of match ( assuming no extended time) I’m calling it for Argentina.  But  it won’t be  a walk-over and both could score.

And based on the above for a crazy outside bet for final: Ivory Coast. 


And finally.
I did this analysis and then checked the rankings to see whether the group conclusions made sense. They nearly all concur with the rankings where there are big differences in those, and are not unreasonable choices where the rankings are closer or in the top 20. I was partcicularly amused to see Chile next to the Netherlands in the rankings as this one gave me the greatest problem of all.

 So there is nothing that really couldn’t happen in the above analysis!

 Here is what FIFA say

 Spain - world ranking 1st
Germany - world ranking 2nd
Brazil - world ranking 3rd
Portugal - world ranking 4th
Argentina - world ranking 5th
Switzerland - world ranking 6th
Uruguay - world ranking 7th
Colombia - world ranking 8th
Italy - world ranking 9th
England - world ranking 10th
Belgium - world ranking 11th
Greece - world ranking 12th
USA - world ranking 13th
Chile - world ranking 14th
Holland - world ranking 15th
France - world ranking 17th
Croatia - world ranking 18th
Russia - world ranking 19th
Mexico - world ranking 20th
Bosnia and Herzegovina - world ranking 21st
Algeria - world ranking 22nd
Ivory Coast - world ranking 23rd
Ecuador - world ranking 26th
Costa Rica - world ranking 27th
Honduras - world ranking 31st
Ghana - world ranking 37th
Iran - world ranking 43rd
Nigeria - world ranking 44th
Japan - world ranking 46th
Cameroon - world ranking 56th
South Korea - world ranking 57th
Australia - world ranking 61st






















Sunday, 9 February 2014

2014- A quick summary

Over the last few weeks I’ve been completing my currency forecasts for a few of the emerging market currencies that I skipped in my work last year. As it turned out this was a topical subject. And in those currencies I had originally considered, (Rupee, Rupiah, Real), there was a great deal  more activity for a week or two than I had forecast.

So does this mean that my forecasts were wrong? I would say, unequivocally, no!

In my defence, I always remind my readers that I am submitting rolling 3 month forecasts that merely highlight broader trends and very significant events, they doesn’t throw up all the daily and weekly animal spirits of the markets. For that sort of detail, I am afraid, dear readers, you must pay.

And, having gone back to the detailed source material, I can confirm that every single one of the emerging market currencies was affected by just one factor in late January early February.

And it isn’t over yet either. Furthermore, there are enough factors combining in 2014 to suggest that we haven’t seen anything yet!

Many of the charts, and particularly the currency charts are highlighting the period around April. Obviously some of the factors that will be important then have already been activated in January, and the stories will continue to unfold over the next two months. But there will be renewed vigour to them by April.

Yet, before you all rush off and sell the same old, same old, currencies again, I feel a few remarks are in order. 

What I have found as I ploughed my way through each currency forecast, and especially analysing the last three ( Rand, Rouble and Lira) in quick succession, is that lumping all these countries together is a big mistake. Yes, it allows bored senior investment bankers to come up with neat acronyms and, yes, it is pretty much the simplistic approach you might expect from a load of junior traders who have probably not been further than Ibiza or Atlantic City, but it fails completely to acknowledge that all these countries are  vastly different.

In layman’s terms, in order to successfully forecast one must have a thorough understanding of the history and the culture of a country.  Yes, current politics is useful, and so are a grasp of recent events and economics, but nothing beats that deep historical and cultural context.  And I’d even go as far as to say that you can’t really understand a country until you’ve considered its geography ( climate, geology and location); without those there would be no history and culture.

But I digress. What I was trying to say is that each country and currency is different and when making investment decisions should be treated as such.

My analysis has revealed striking differences in the conditions of, and prognoses for, each country and thus each currency

And it looks like the broader investment community might be beginning to be a bit more discriminating, as the currency valuation pathways for March to May look as if they will vary considerably between countries.  

Furthermore, I caution against assuming that what happens over these few months is establishing a trend for the latter part of 2014 and 2015. Some countries are going to settle down, but others are going to be more problematic.

I suggest a review of my individual forecasts for the details.

Dates to watch, the whole period into May is tricky, though the emphasis will shift from region to region as the weeks progress. Particularly key   dates are :

the first few days of March

18th-34 March

31 March

14-15th April

21st- 23rd April

27th April


And the order of concern for currencies in the coming 4 months

Argentinean Peso
Turkish Lira

Dollar (i)
Euro    (i)
Sterling (i)
Renminbi (ii)

Mexican  Peso

 (i) not so much difference in effect in 2014 but the dollar problems in Feb and March will probably precede the Euro ones in April and Sterling will get caught briefly by the latter)
(ii) The nature of the Renminbi issues is quite different from that of the other main currencies and may actually represent significant appreciation.

Politically there are a host of elections in 2014, but they are mostly later after the currency issues calm down, so the likely outcomes of these are:

South Africa – Change of leadership
India – Change

Indonesia – probably no change
Turkey – hard to call – could be deception surrounding the vote. Possibly no change

Brazil – quite a lot of challenge in run up but probably no change in the end.







Friday, 7 February 2014

Russian Rouble 2014-16

As usual we're aligned with the rest of the universe. Not only have I been working on these currencies over the last few weeks, but I am not posting this one as the Russian Olympics open.
 I've diverged briefly from my art illustrations for these 3 posts today. I've instead decided to remind the world that these 'emerging markets' contain elements of extreme sophistication and wealth. Although admitted this one is a bit tongue in cheek!
In keeping with the other emerging market currencies the Rouble hada difficult January. With a small declines until around 22nd Jan it then lost 5% but this one stabilised quite quickly.
February and March seem to be much calmer months.
 There is a little more background imbalance in April and May. However there does not seem to be a return to January conditions in this case.
There is a shift in emphasis from June onwards. But there is still the continued longer term background  weakness.
However this seems to be more than offset over the summer months by unexpected optimism and support, presumably, from the economy.  
Later there may be interest rate changes in August and a burst of buying of the currency leading to some appreciation in September
October and November are more mixed, although the mix of sentiment is not likely to create much of a trend until late November when there could be a decline in value, or at least a more muted approach that restricts volumes
December, sees this phase pass but there is still some restriction in the air despite a generally more secure condition.
2015 looks to be a positive year for the Rouble.
The mood is positive, right from the beginning of January.  However it is tempered by restrictions and perhaps rising rates.
Still, the currency should end the first quarter higher than it started.
There is a new situation that comes into the mix by April, which will remain a theme over the next two years. It is possible this relates to inflation of asset values or natural resources.
Whatever the cause it seems to carry the rouble forward in april and much of May.
June and July look like being interesting. With possible inflationary  background leading to the government having to take some action. Perhaps to keep over buying of the currency in check.
August is another positive month, although once again rates might be in the spotlight.
September to November don’t really see a let up in any of the themes.
There is certainly a lot happening. Long term structural concerns remain but easily take a backseat to the inflationary asset values. Restrictions may be imposed but by November they are likely to be overridden by more positive spirits.
December, however, sees a more measured situation, perhaps due to conditions in or even agreements with other countries.
While the  rouble is still attractive this will prevent too much happening value wise.
The issue surrounding asset and resource valuations continues into 2016, with more inflationary pressures.
However in January and February these are more than offset by some restrictive influences which might create some negative sentiment.
March and April represent tricky times, when there is a continued attempt to balance conflicting issues. The currency will probably go nowhere.
May and June are more interesting. The inflationary issues reach a peak and combined with the effect of the earlier agreements creates a sense of complete inertia with little trade 
It will take some dramatic events to get this situation moving again.
But by July there is a return to focus on asset and resource values.
There is concern about the imbalances being created and there is instability in the currency arrangements that have been made.
Nevertheless, august sees another burst of enthusiasm
September and October see no new themes emerging, merely a continuation of the existing ones in a lower key. So there is unlikely to be much change in value nor, indeed, unusual levels of trade in the currency now
There is a development towards the end of the year, though, when there may be further attempts to bring a sense of reality back to the situation.
3 Jan 1897 o.s. St Petersberg Noon. A gold standard

Turkish Lira 2014-16


January and February are characterised by unexpected dramas.
Jan – ok till 22nd then 13% decline, almost all reversed a week later ( rate rise), but then settled at about 6% decline for month
The instability remains throughout the period.
 And continues on into March and April as total uncertainty begins to reign. Indeed if anything the situation becomes even more unstable throughout these two months.
Although there may be fluctuations in value in both directions, the overall mood is likely to be negative again.
I wouldn’t rule out another interest rate change.
Although the themes continue into May and June, there is less of a feeling of direct pressure. Now it is more likely that volatility is larger but with less downward pressure. Indeed there might be a rapid reversal in June.
It is more of the same in July and August. But again with less clear direction. Although there is no sign of a lifting of the uncertainty.
Late August though sees a slight change in sentiment
September and October suggest  less uncertainty ( at least temporarily) and more direction to trade.
There is still volatility, but there is, on balance, a more positive mood now and this might lead to an up-tick in value, although it is unlikely to be large in comparison to the broader trend.
November and December, however, see some relief from the pressures, a more positive mood and perhaps some recovery in value for the Lira.
It is a brief respite though as 2015 begins with many of the themes of 2014 continuing. There is still uncertainty, still volatility and still pressure on values.
However the situation is not as bad as before and there are signs that the balance might even be positive by the end of February. There is definite support at this level.
March and April see things all over the place again though.
But May to August, while not signifying a turnaround in sentiment. At least sees enough positive momentum to create a rise in value and indeed some volume of trade in that direction.
September and October see a return to earlier conditions, and inflationary concerns. Will lead once again to volatility.
Fortunately it settles down towards the latter part of these two months as a new environment is being created.
The new situation starts to take its form in November and December but there is still, inevitably, some uncertainty surrounding how it will play out.
This will briefly lead to more of the old instability and volatility.
 While 2016 cannot be considered a quiet year by long term standards, it is an improvement.
January and February sees some stabilising influence brought into play to offset the dramas.
March and April sees the country adjusting to the new conditions, perhaps with some difficulties but without the same levels of uncertainty and volatility that have been seen in the last 3 years.
May and June are tricky and perhaps somewhat more volatile. There is less in the way of stabilising influences. However there is a continued optimism that the situation is beginning to settle down.
July is likely to see more of the same themes but August sees the currency finally starting to emerge from the tunnel.
Indeed August is a very positive month for the currency. Although the difficulties are fresh in minds and will prevent any rapid rises.
September and October are more mixed but again much more positive.
A  much better position is reached.
The final stage in the stabilising process that started a year ago falls into place in November and December. Whilst there are still long term issues to be resolved and whilst there is a mix of positive and negative views the good thing is the reduction in volatility and uncertainty.
There may be rate changes and other minor policy adjustments that affect value but the overall situation is much better now.
Although it is possible to identify dates for the currency in the 19th century, due to the late calendar change I wasn't able to identify whether these dates were old or new calendar. So I have set my chart for the formation of the Turkish Bank on 3 OCT 1931 at 00.00 local time 
Not an art work, just a photo of one of my favourite hotels in the word