2017
Of course Australia’s claim to fame so far in 2017 has been
in response to the Trump telephone call. There are also continued economic
questions but these are obscured by the summer months. As a result the general
feel for the 2 months of January and February is relatively positive for the
people as a whole.
The people remain upbeat in March to May, although there are
some downsides to this as they may be so upbeat as to be disruptive. Although
somewhat muted by the positive mood, there are some concerns, particularly
relating to increasing economic inertia.
But the biggest overall theme is one of confusion about where
the country goes from here. The period sees the beginning of clouds that weaken
the core industries as well as continued slight inflationary pressures.
June to August may see some more disputes like the one with
Trump where opinions are brutally expressed. This combined with the economic
factors from the previous few months may lead to more restrictions in activity.
On balance though it is still a time when the people are
feeling hopeful of continued growth etc.
September and October are a little more difficult. There is
less optimism and more feeling that things might not be so easily solved. This
is particularly the case in the extraction industries. Nevertheless we must bear in mind that these
slight challenges are in the light of the long period of growth that precedes
them, it is not yet too serious for most people.
November and December are a little better. There is
certainly a better outlook for the government and there is much less focus on
the industries that may be constrained.
However the global mood is also changing and it is not clear
how that will impact Australia.
These last 2 months of 2017 may see attempts to
negotiate or renegotiate arrangements
with other countries, but such negotiations may be more tricky than originally
anticipated.
2018
2018 is a year of focus on financial resources and
commodities and perhaps women’s issues.
January and February have some of the communication
difficulties (harsh words spoken ) that characterised parts of 2016. However
there is renewed optimism and the period is almost wholly positive- with the
government looking very stable and supported.
March to May continues some of this. It looks to be a particularly good time for the leadership.
There is still a significant amount of optimism and drive ( although there may
be brief moments when the people are
overextended). The greatest risk is the confusion over the identity of the
country that characterised this whole period- this will relate to its ties with
England but also to its extraction industries where there may be
disappointments and weakness- floods may also characterise this period. Changes within parties may also alter the
emphasis within government.
June to August sees issues relating to extraction and the
countries identity continuing as well as the continued support for the
government. Although it is a time of taking stock and knuckling down to
addressing challenges there is still much that looks positive.
September and October are likely to see the people of the
country take centre stage. There is a risk they are misled or submerged in the
issues previously mentioned in a way that draws everyone’s attention. Another
possibility now is significant inflation.
November and December see a return to the positive view of
the leadership and, on balance, some positive economic news. The issues from
the rest of the year continue however and there is no let- up in the focus on
the people who are involved in those industries and matters referred to.
January and February 2019 continue many of the themes from
2018. There is still the whole question of the future of the same industries
and Australia’s identity in terms of its relations and demographics.
It is a time of bit surprises though which may shake things
up , but there is still enough stability around so that the picture is not too
bleak.
Indeed March to June, although not without some tough issues
in relation to communication is generally positive for the people.
Interestingly there is no focus on the government now that is unusual for an
expected election time –it certainly suggests no change.
July to September is rather more difficult for the people as
they are likely to overreact to events. There is no suggestion of protests
though. It is just that the picture is quite unstable and explosive. Given
events elsewhere it may relate to the currency which could shift in value
significantly now.
October and November indicators are that this will continue.
A lot of rapid events might lead to a changing situation and a sense of
confusion and being misinformed which
could also relate to currency exchange,
December is actually a quiet month in comparison. The major
issues continue but it is a more stable time for the people
2020 is a year of big swings in fortune.
January and February see a shift in focus for the people but
continued positive expectation. It is a period of tricky issues for the country
. It is an excellent time for the leadership though, particularly the early
part of the period.
Later it appears to be a time when the country is generally
seen in a positive light.
March to June continue the tricky themes. The impression I
get is that the country is having to make adjustments due to large (
perhaps financial) forces outside its
control. There are surprising changes at government/leadership level but these
look mostly positive.
August and September are similar for the leadership but the
surrounding conditions are most like January and February. The people are still
able to feel optimistic.
October and November is a time when the focus in on trying
to stabilise things in the light of broader events. It still seems ok for the
people, though the leadership once more needs to be nimble at adapting to
sudden shifts or change will be forced on it externally.
December sees the tricky conditions that characterised the
year continuing but now there is less external pressure on the government –
indeed the obstacles for the leadership come from the people who are less
impressed than before.
By far the most interesting part of this picture, though, is
what isn’t happening. Unlike other country’s there’s no sense of a new world
being created around December. The end of the year looks totally calm.
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