Although Indonesia has not grown as fast as it would have
liked in the last few years, it has still been a beacon of success compare with
many nations. There is still a lot to do, regarding investment, corruption and
economic reforms before the country can move forward further, but there is no
reason from an economic perspective to think that the pace of change will slow.
The only risks are political, ideological and perhaps geological.
2017
That said, it appears that those risks may be greater than
first appears. In even the first two
months of 2017 there seems to be a growing sense that the stability of the
country can be undermined. Attempts to keep threats in check are likely to be
mainly, though not wholly successful at this point. Of course the risk could merely be one of
earthquakes, although increased terrorism is also a possibility.
Relations with other nations could receive a shake -up particularly
in the latter part of this period. There may be some shocks or surprises that
put the country in the news; already it has been suggested that with the US
leaving the TPP, Indonesia should be included.
March to May sees less focus on the country, but much
happening below the surface in terms of transforming the status quo- some of
this is positive, although there are still areas where things are not so
straightforward, but some of it may represent a threat to the infrastructure
too. There may be outbursts of trouble, though if anything these increase
support the leadership.
June to August sees a return to the sense of undermining
that was felt in the early part of the year and there is still a need to keep
some factions under control. It is not a
particularly difficult period as the people seem content, and economically
there is opportunity for growth – however some tricky factors do need to be
monitored.
September and October
are transition months. More representative of 2016 than 2017; there are still
some tricky conditions but nothing concrete. September does see a short phase
when the country may be newsworthy again though.
October is a good month for the leadership.
November and December, on the other hand, are rather more
difficult and see the people rather fearful. Many of the issues from earlier in
the year return and now they are accompanied by restrictions, perhaps some sort
of clampdown is announced. There are challenges to growth as well. Questions
regarding debt and investment may worry the country as well as questions
regarding the growth of terrorism.
January and February 2018 are less dramatic than late 2017,
but they are still challenging months with continued risks of terrorism or
other disruption and continued attempts to reform which will bring their own
pushbacks, although there is general support for the reforms now.
The period may also see some economic inertia.
Although the feeling of inertia continues, March to May also
sees a shift in the mood. The people are energised and although this is broadly
positive it could give rise to some pressure to change faster. There is a sense
that not enough is being done to constructively manage either economic/manufacturing
developments or internal threats. There is concern that things are drifting.
June to August sees a continuation of these themes, but
there is less intensity and more
opportunity. Nevertheless it is not all plain sailing with continued failure to
manage dissident factions and issues relating to development.
September and October are much calmer months. A combination
of factors mean that development is better harnessed now even though there may
still be questions over inertia in some areas.
November and December seem to be good months for the
leadership to get support and cooperation from the people. There is definitely
a positive feeling now which can overcome doubts.
However there is still some background challenges that seek
to undermine the status quo and investments in infrastructure.
2019
January and February 2019 are also relatively moderate
months. Although there are some pressures which drag the country down. Finances
and budgets might be an issues now, making it difficult to grow. On the other
hand there is a breakthrough in some areas.
March to June sees a long term shift in the focus of the
country, this may be accompanied by some announcements.
It is a less clear cut time
for the leadership though as the issues that made progress difficult
last year continue and there is a definite mood that is dragging the country
down, keeping it from breaking away from the past.
July to September is likely to be the run up to elections
phase. But although the people are broadly content now, they may be looking for
something new. At the very least challenges to the current leadership will be
strong. If the election is held before October the incumbent could lose. Later
on in October the conditions are not so challenging.
December is better and sees the people and government
aligned and optimistic about the future despite the pressures that continue to
prevent change. Relative to many countries, Indonesia looks comfortable now
2020
January and February 2020 are however more tricky. There are
big difficulties convincing the opposition and the government may have to
adjust their position. There are also some tricky, possibly even unstable
tendencies now, which can destabilise the foundations, albeit not destroy them.
March to July is similar, but now there is likely to be
bigger financial obstacles to overcome.
The situation makes the leadership vulnerable to being overturned, or at
least needing an internal shake up.
August and September return to the conditions of the early
part of the year. While the people are
feeling moderately ok the government is still trying to negotiate and adjust
its position.
October and November bring this to a head. The people are
unsettled and may protest widely. The government is once again highly
vulnerable.
December continues in the same vein, the leadership still
unstable.
However everything is changing and conditions at the end of
the year when the country is in focus more widely may indicate a change has
been made.
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