Russia 2017-2020



 
We’re already half way into January as I write this (12th Jan) and , in one way, it is a delight to see exactly the indicators we might expect to represent the storm about the Russian relations with the new US president. Whether they are true or not ( my guess bit of both) they undermine the status of both countries.
2017
The current conditions don’t really dissipate throughout January and February and shocks and surprises relating to the Russian leadership are likely.
March to May sees things settling down a bit although there is a tendency around March for the leadership to over step  itself.  However the latter part of the period becomes more unsettled for the Russian people rather than its leadership.  There are continued economic ( recessionary) difficulties to contend with.
The unsettled position of the people continues from
June to August. The period also sees a return to the “international” issues of the early part of the year ( US and Middle East presumably) There are further clouds of misinformation around the leadership. However there is more likely to be some restraint by the government at this time as over- reaction seems more tempered than earlier.   
The main themes continue into September and October, but financial matters become more important to the people and by the end of October  there are oil price and interest rate matters to contend with.
November and December see the beginning of the end of those international issues which have dominated much of the year. But the country doesn’t shake off questions about its image just yet.
As the broader environment changes to a more cautious and restrictive one, there seems to be an effort to keep a lid on any dissent regarding economic policy weakness. November is full of questions about debt, prices and trade but December is a relatively uneventful month.
2018 
January and February of 2018 see some continued misinformation or other obfuscation surrounding the leadership and sudden upsets for the people but overall there is a much calmer environment.
The financial position may be improved ( better oil prices etc?)  and tendencies towards disruption are moderated somewhat.
March to May sees the focus beginning to change, although there is still some overhang from earlier events and issues. Curiously, although there should be election now, there is little evidence of focus on leadership. One assumes there is only marginal changes made.
Global financial/banking matters become more important
June to August is a relatively calm time.
September and October continue this calm, although there may be some weeks where the events of 2017 are touched on. The country has some dynamism around September, although  some of  it may be misdirected, but in any case October is full of optimism.
November and December are similar to June to August although this time there may be some adjustment necessary regarding rates/oil prices etc.
2019 
2019 is likely all about global finance and oil prices again but also perhaps  underground communications. 
January and February start with a definite focus on finance.
The focus also now switches back to the leadership, not just locally but internationally. There could be some drama and even conflict associated with this. There are definitely explosive tendencies associated with this time.
March to May is increasingly difficult for the leadership as there are both attempts to undermine it and problems with the local population. It is an unstable time both politically and economically with oil likely to be one source of the disruption.
June To August is somewhat easier on the leadership than the previous 3 months. However there are continuing financial issues. Once more the country is confronted with difficulties from other nations, and a war of words at least could get out of hand. However the country has the determination to see past this. 
September to November sees continuing issues with sudden shocks relating to finance, hidden communications  and probably oil that again may set Russia back on the global stage.
At the same time the people are upset, feeling betrayed and in a somewhat belligerent mood. However there is enough discipline to stop this getting too much out of hand. But it is a time of rapid events and much drama. The leadership, however, remains relatively protected throughout.
December is rather less significant for the country on the global stage, but there are still internal matters to concern. Financial issues remain the priority and there are further matters related to rates and oil prices at the year end.  The people remain upset and feel over constrained but this does not develop into anything this month.
2020 
January and February 2020 are the start of a year which is full of excitement and drama in the country. The leadership  now feels under threat and challenged and the people are equally concerned and not at all aligned with their leaders. Diplomacy will help but any aggression will be met with failure as actions are like walking through smog now. It is however a    mixture of  resilience and positive expectation that sees the country through by the end of the two months.
March to June see better support for the leadership from the people, and a general feeling in the country of having the power to change things rather than the feeling of restriction that existed in January and February . However the response now may get totally out of hand.
There are likely to be further radical changes in prices ( and other matters already mentioned) and  there may also be some feeling of helplessness as recessionary conditions may bite in some areas.
June to September is more like January and February and is again not a good period.
October to November, however sees more concentrated efforts and the harnessing of huge power. However once again it is difficult to see how this will help either the people or their leadership as the situation is very challenging for everyone despite the ability to harness some positive financial advantages.
December sees the mood pared back considerably, but not eliminated. This is still a deeply disturbing time of change when  conditions seek to undermine the  leadership and oppose the needs of the people.
This leads to the people feeling forced to adapt to new circumstance by the end of the year.
 

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