2017
The current conditions don’t really dissipate throughout
January and February and shocks and surprises relating to the Russian
leadership are likely.
March to May sees things settling down a bit although there
is a tendency around March for the leadership to over step itself.
However the latter part of the period becomes more unsettled for the
Russian people rather than its leadership.
There are continued economic ( recessionary) difficulties to contend
with.
The unsettled position of the people continues from
June to August. The period also sees a return to the
“international” issues of the early part of the year ( US and Middle East
presumably) There are further clouds of misinformation around the leadership.
However there is more likely to be some restraint by the government at this
time as over- reaction seems more tempered than earlier.
The main themes continue into September and October, but
financial matters become more important to the people and by the end of
October there are oil price and interest
rate matters to contend with.
November and December see the beginning of the end of those
international issues which have dominated much of the year. But the country
doesn’t shake off questions about its image just yet.
As the broader environment changes to a more cautious and
restrictive one, there seems to be an effort to keep a lid on any dissent regarding
economic policy weakness. November is full of questions about debt, prices and
trade but December is a relatively uneventful month.
January and February of 2018 see some continued
misinformation or other obfuscation surrounding the leadership and sudden
upsets for the people but overall there is a much calmer environment.
The financial position may be improved ( better oil prices
etc?) and tendencies towards disruption
are moderated somewhat.
March to May sees the focus beginning to change, although
there is still some overhang from earlier events and issues. Curiously,
although there should be election now, there is little evidence of focus on
leadership. One assumes there is only marginal changes made.
Global financial/banking matters become more important
June to August is a relatively calm time.
September and October continue this calm, although there may
be some weeks where the events of 2017 are touched on. The country has some
dynamism around September, although some
of it may be misdirected, but in any
case October is full of optimism.
November and December are similar to June to August although
this time there may be some adjustment necessary regarding rates/oil prices
etc.
2019 is likely all about global finance and oil prices again
but also perhaps underground
communications.
January and February start with a definite focus on finance.
The focus also now switches back to the leadership, not just
locally but internationally. There could be some drama and even conflict
associated with this. There are definitely explosive tendencies associated with
this time.
March to May is increasingly difficult for the leadership as
there are both attempts to undermine it and problems with the local population.
It is an unstable time both politically and economically with oil likely to be
one source of the disruption.
June To August is somewhat easier on the leadership than the
previous 3 months. However there are continuing financial issues. Once more the
country is confronted with difficulties from other nations, and a war of words
at least could get out of hand. However the country has the determination to
see past this.
September to November sees continuing issues with sudden
shocks relating to finance, hidden communications and probably oil that again may set Russia
back on the global stage.
At the same time the people are upset, feeling betrayed and
in a somewhat belligerent mood. However there is enough discipline to stop this
getting too much out of hand. But it is a time of rapid events and much drama.
The leadership, however, remains relatively protected throughout.
December is rather less significant for the country on the
global stage, but there are still internal matters to concern. Financial issues
remain the priority and there are further matters related to rates and oil
prices at the year end. The people
remain upset and feel over constrained but this does not develop into anything
this month.
January and February 2020 are the start of a year which is
full of excitement and drama in the country. The leadership now feels under threat and challenged and the
people are equally concerned and not at all aligned with their leaders.
Diplomacy will help but any aggression will be met with failure as actions are
like walking through smog now. It is however a mixture of
resilience and positive expectation that sees the country through by the
end of the two months.
March to June see better support for the leadership from the
people, and a general feeling in the country of having the power to change
things rather than the feeling of restriction that existed in January and
February . However the response now may get totally out of hand.
There are likely to be further radical changes in prices (
and other matters already mentioned) and there may also be some feeling of helplessness
as recessionary conditions may bite in some areas.
June to September is more like January and February and is
again not a good period.
October to November, however sees more concentrated efforts
and the harnessing of huge power. However once again it is difficult to see how
this will help either the people or their leadership as the situation is very
challenging for everyone despite the ability to harness some positive financial
advantages.
December sees the mood pared back considerably, but not
eliminated. This is still a deeply disturbing time of change when conditions seek to undermine the leadership and oppose the needs of the
people.
This leads to the people feeling forced to adapt to new
circumstance by the end of the year.
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