Tuesday, 27 August 2013

Gold- the project Part III

This is the third of a three part Gold forecasting project. I am posting the whole project in this case as it isn't possible to identify an original gold chart, so some justification is in order. Part I discusses the chart in use, Part II, which is very long, looks at some historical events for chart comparison and confirmation and Part III looks at the future. Astrologers might be interested in Part's I and II, but other readers will probably want to focus on Part III and some future updates.
 
 
So, how about some forecasts?
How do we do that?
One way, clearly, is to look at the transits and progressions. And, interestingly, because of the daily price fixing we can advance our chart on the 3 p.m. fix to see when the angles are activated.
First let’s look at some longer terms trends. Remember at all times we are considering a dollar/gold pair so we can expect cycles to show up which are important for the dollar as well as for gold. It means that we can’t just assume that a positive aspect to the chart is positive for gold. We must understand that the chart is a gold peak in dollar price chart ( i.e the moment when sentiment turned downwards) and interpret the elements accordingly. 
So we need to consider the interconnected cycles of Pluto/Jupiter and Saturn as well as Neptune.
Obviously we have moved into moving into the last waning quarter of Pluto Saturn. And over the next two years will move into the waning Jupiter cycles too. All finally culminating in the conjunctions of  2020-2021, when the progressed Venus is conjunct the progressed MC. This will almost certainly mark a major turning point in the gold price – we are left only with the question as to if this is a peak, or a trough before an exponential rise. I will write a more detailed forecast that will answer this question when I do my 2017-2020 forecasts in 2016.
Notably the Venus/MC configuration has been building since 2001, so it likely tells us something important about the secular bull market in the metal. In which case we can assume that there will not be a collapse of the gold price before 2021 and that it is likely that overall we shall see more rises ( although not necessary a linear trend due to other factors).
In the meantime will gold rise or fall and when will the key shifts take place?
I confess that I don’t have enough experience of this chart yet to separate the positive gold from the positive dollar. So it is easy to identify timing but not direction. I plan to further track the chart over the next few months to establish how the factors work exactly. I will then make further predictions in early 2014.
So I wouldn’t recommend using this as a guide to price direction just yet but for those who want to use volatility as a trade there is some useful information already..
 At present the chart looks like this:
 

And, as you can see, it even called to me as the sun is conjunct the node as I complete this analysis.
Recently, Pluto has been making mostly positive aspects, with a trine to Jupiter, and Saturn with a sextile to the progressed Mars/Jupiter conjunction and a trine to Venus, so has not been causing too many problems. My view is this is supporting the price at the moment and offsetting some of the weakness that Neptune might otherwise be creating.
We must also mention Uranus, given the on-going square with Pluto. Currently it is not significantly aspecting the chart but it will.
In 2014 we will see Pluto start to create a trine with the chart MC, and in the April it will be in square to Uranus. Uranus will then move into a square with the chart Ascendant that May until September. Then in March 2015 the square is right across the Ascendant Descendant axis. That is likely to be key turning point. The influence is in play all 2015 with the chart progressed Moon crossing the Ascendant  In late August /early September 2015. There is a lot going on at that time in the chart, so I expect it to involve significant price movements.
However, Neptune continues to conjoin the progressed Sun, which is likely to be creating some weakness in sentiment for the metal. It has been within orb since early 2012 and will continue to be an influence until the end of 2015.
Jupiter, is the most interesting planet in the immediate future (coming month) as it will trine the chart MC and cross the Ascendant. Particular dates to watch are therefore 8-10th of September. In 2001 Jupiter’s station near the ascendant created a small rise. But this was accompanied by the Pluto Saturn opposition square the MC/IC axis and a Uranus transit of the progressed Sun. In June1990 the transit corresponded with a slight drop.
In October the progressed Moon will oppose the chart Neptune and square the Moon. Elsewhere I’ve expected some currency difficulties around that time so this finding is not unsurprising.
Jupiter returns to transit the Ascendant again in early 2014. So we can watch what happens in September and expect that it will give an indication of the themes prevalent early next year.
One of the most interesting dates, 24 Feb 2014, however, does not include Jupiter. Then  the transiting Sun conjoins transiting Neptune and the progressed Sun opposing the Mars/Jupiter progressed conjunction. The Moon at fix time is at 0 degrees Capricorn and the Asc is close to the progressed Ascendant -  In 2012 there was a short spurt in prices when the Sun reached this area, although then it was supported by a Jupiter sextile and mars was close to the IC.  In 2013 prices were slightly depressed at this time of year – but this time Mars was on the MC and Jupiter was square the Sun.  2014 should clarify the exact effect of the Sun /Neptune aspect.
The movement of Mars is a key factor in the historic charts, as is the position of the progressed and transiting Moon. 
Another date I will be keeping my eye on is 19 August 2014, when Jupiter and Venus are together on the progressed Ascendant.  I suspect this might be positive for the dollar, but it certainly should create a larger than average movement.
Generally, I won’t look at the detail further out than 12 months. I will do that next year.  But another significant date is 30 September 2016, when the progressed Mars  crosses progressed Jupiter. Those who have read my US forecasts  will know that 2016 looks seriously negative for the country. I would therefore hazard a guess that gold will rise in price around this time.
Aspects to the daily ‘fix’ angles are also important indicators of the fix price – but may not give full information of all trading movements for the whole 24 hours.
 
But, as I say, this is a work in progress and I will return to it periodically with new findings.
 
 


Gold - THe project Part II

This is the second of a three part Gold forecasting project. I am posting the whole project in this case as it isn't possible to identify an original gold chart, so some justification is in order. Part I discusses the chart in use, Part II, which is very long, looks at some historical events for chart comparison and confirmation and Part III looks at the future. Astrologers might be interested in Part's I and II, but other readers will probably want to focus on Part III and some future updates.

 
I’ve picked 6 events for comparison and greater enlightenment about the workings of the 1980 chart:
·         Newton’s proposal to fix gold 21 Sept 1717 (OS) – noon (untimed), London
·         Nixon speech ending Bretton woods 15 Aug 1971 – 9p.m. Washington
·         Lows in 1999- one for dollars (20 July 3pm London) and one for sterling ( 10 sep 10.30am London)
·         High point for gold in the recent cycle 5 Sept 2011 – 3pm London
·         The sterling fix of 1919
·         One of the 1974 charts
 
Newton’s proposal to fix gold 21 Sept 1717 (OS) – noon (untimed), London

 
In this case we will look at the aspects between the 1717 chart and the 1980 one.  The key factors to note here are (I will ignore the 1717 angles as the event is untimed):
·         Jupiter at 0 Leo on that 2nd cusp again and opposite the 1980 conjunction. Note also that the progressed Jupiter of the 1980 chart is close to this at 1 degree Leo- the degree it falls in the UK 1801 chart. Nice. 
·         The progressed 1980 Mars is at 21 degrees picking up the Moon, Pluto and Neptune.
 
·         Saturn is close to conjunction with the 1980 Pluto, and the progressed Ascendant square progressed MC are both within a degree of Saturn. Indeed the planets are within orb of there being a Saturn conjunction with Pluto and a Pluto conjunction with progressed Saturn. Definitely evidence of the grounding effect of this event.
 
·         The progressed Moon, though  in Leo,  is not highlighted. This makes sense. This was a decision of government not of the markets.
 
·         The progressed Node is close to the IC and transiting Pluto conjoins the IC. Clearly a key cyclical point in Gold history.
 
Nixon speech ending Bretton woods 15 Aug 1971 – 9p.m. Washington

In this case we expect to see more focus on the dollar price issues.
·         The chart MC conjoins Neptune at 21/22 degrees.
 
 At this point we could say QED and move on. But since it will be at this position daily (!) let’s see what else we can identify!
 
·         The progressed Moon itself is at 22 degrees Scorpio trine the 1980 Moon
 
·         Transiting Sun is at 22 Leo, square the progressed Moon and trine the transiting MC. These three taken together are significant.
  
·         Progressed Sun is at 22 Capricorn, sextile the progressed Moon and 1980 Moon etc.
 
·         Neptune is at that important 0 degrees ( in this case in Sagittarius). Sextile the chart Sun and trine the second house cusp.
 
·         The Ascendant of the speech  conjoins the 13-15 mutable degrees MC of the 1980 chart. Nothing like picking your moments in advance eh?!
 
·         Transiting Pluto is within 2 degrees of the chart  Saturn, and is sextile Jupiter and square the Moon. We are picking up the Pluto/Saturn  cycle again
 
·         Mar is quincunx the 1980 chart Mars.
And…. Well I think that is enough. We’ve clearly demonstrated the relationship between the 2 events. If you decouple your currency from a metal base it is likely to sink vs. that metal. No surprises there.
 
The 1919 fix chart
 
We wouldn’t expect this to correlate terribly well with the dollar as it isn’t a dollar turning point chart but would expect some elements of the peak chart to show up.  In this case we see:
·         Moon at 0 degrees ( this time Capricorn)
·         Asc progressed at 0 degrees Taurus. This in itself is indicative of the nature of the event.
·         Saturn conjoins the progressed Node – again it’s a fix – we would expect this
·         Progressed Mercury conjoins the natal Uranus
·         The transiting Sun Venus conjunction is square progressed Neptune
 
Then we have the 1974 chart. I’ve used NY at 10 a.m.

This time we would expect a dollar and price connection (and a connection to the Nixon chart too):
·         Saturn conjoins the 1980 Ascendant  and sextile the chart’s Mars .Mercury is on the Descendant
·         Venus is at 0 degrees – this time Pisces opposite the node
·         Jupiter conjoins the 1980 MC
·         The Sun is within a degree of the progressed Moon and trines the natal Jupiter and squares Pluto ( yep we know what cycle we are in with that one!). The progressed Moon is itself sextile the progressed Ascendant.
·         Venus at 22 degrees Capricorn is conjunct progressed Mercury
·         The start of trade is probably also signified by the transiting Moon trine Mars/MC
Again the connections are sufficiently persuasive.
More interesting from the perspectives of price are the next 3 charts.
 
  
    Lows in 1999- one for dollars (20 July 3pm London) and one for sterling ( 10 sep 10.30am London)
 
Dollar Low
In this chart
·         Neptune ( quincunx transiting venus) is transiting the 0 degree Sun conjunction ( though not exactly) and is sextile the progressed MC and square Jupiter
·         Progressed Venus is at 0 degree Aries sextile the 1980 Sun conjunction.
·         The progressed Moon at 29 Scorpio squares the progressed Node.
·         The Sun is transiting the progressed Ascendant
·         The progressed Sun is at 20 degrees, sextile 1980 Neptune and trine Pluto
·         Transiting Saturn, square Uranus,  is trine the 1980 Mars
·         Transiting Pluto is trine transiting Mercury and square progressed Jupiter 
 
Contrast this with the Sterling low ( on which I put less emphasis as we are basing our analysis on the dollar peak chart)
 

Many of the progressed positions remain the same.
·         Neptune ( quincunx transiting venus) is still transiting the Sun conjunction although the sextile to the progressed MC is now wide
·         Transiting moon is at 23 degrees square Neptune
·         Progressed Venus remains at 0 degree Aries sextile the 1980 Sun conjunction
·         The progressed Moon is now at 1 degree Sag and  squares the Node.
·         The Sun ( conjunct Mercury)  is now transiting trine transiting Saturn and has just past the 1980 Mars/IC
·         The progressed Sun is at 20 degrees, sextile 1980 Neptune and trine Pluto
·         Transiting Pluto remains square progressed Jupiter 
So we can conclude that lows ideally require:
·         Neptune beginning to separate from  hard aspect to the Sun ( ideally triggered by another probably progressed planet).
·         Conjunctions/configurations  with Ascendant or MC/IC  - natal or progressed -especially involving Saturn
·         21 degrees or close strongly aspected
·         Aspects from Jupiter and Pluto
  
 The high point for gold in the recent cycle 5 Sept 2011 – 3pm London
 
The first thing we note here is
·         2011 Saturn conjoins transiting MC and opposes 1980 progressed MC and squares its ascendant. And at the degree of Mars. That alone is one big turning point indicator.
 
But also
·         The  transiting Sun is on the IC. Obviously an annual event and not by itself important. Though it does tell us something about the exact timing and together with the Saturn position is enough to tell us of a key timing date. 
·         The transiting Moon is at 23 degrees conjunct Neptune (21 degrees) and quincunx the progressed Moon also at 23 degrees.  And transiting mars is at 21 degrees. These clearly tie the event  back to the chosen chart. 
·         But what about that 0 degree point?  We do see Neptune at 29 degrees and the progressed Sun at 2 degrees, but this isn’t really quite enough?
 
Highs therefore require
·         Neptune starting to make a hard aspect to the Sun ( ideally triggered by another probably progressed planet).
·         Conjunctions/configurations  with Ascendant or MC/IC  - natal or progressed -especially involving Saturn
·         21 degrees or close strongly aspected
·         Aspects from Jupiter and Pluto
 
We can also, for fun, test the chart by looking at some other key economic events
 
I haven't posted the chart's as this section would become too cumbersome.
First a reverse chart test: What happened the last time Saturn conjoined the progressed IC ( incidentally accompanied by progressed Mars)?
= End of gold dollar production, baja California gold rush
Next a couple of date tests. Does the chart pick up the first gold rush?
·         Transiting Mercury at 0 degrees aquarius!  Conjoins  the Sun at 3
·         Saturn is close to the MC
·         progressed Saturn conjunct prog Mercury &Sun square prog Neptune
In 1806 with a  Sun mercury conjunction in Leo – US suspended production of Silver coins
The chart also picks up the royal mint chart 21 Sept 1717, with transiting Jupiter at 0 degrees Leo, Pluto at 13 degrees Virgo, trining the transiting Sun at 13 Taurus aspecting the chart MC and Saturn conjoining natal Pluto and opposite progressed Mars Mercury. The progressed MC squares natal Saturn.
interestingly, the chart can also be compared with the Tulip bubble : no date but in the month of the peak progressed Ascendant was  conjunct progressed Jupiter at 0 degrees Leo. Of course people would have been selling gold and buying tulips.
So there we have it. A workable gold/dollar chart with some indicators of some key degrees and planetary cycles.
 

Gold : The project - part I

This is the first of a three part Gold forecasting project. I am posting the whole project in this case as it isn't possible to identify an original gold chart, so some justification is in order. Part I discusses the chart in use, Part II, which is very long, looks at some historical events for chart comparison and confirmation and Part III looks at the future. Astrologers might be interested in Part's I and II, but other readers will probably want to focus on Part III and some future updates. 
 
Until now I have resisted the temptation to try to tie down the mysteries of the gold price.  The reason?- obviously, the lack of anything like a definitive chart to work from.
When I considered oil I was able to adopt the chart of the beginning of the most recent Neptune Pluto cycle as commercial oil use really took off in that cycle, even though it had been used to some extent for many centuries. But gold? Gold has a much longer and richer (no pun intended) history.  Gold history states that the first standardised gold currency dates back to 564BC. Its use in jewellery and other artefacts is much older again. Obviously tying down a chart from 3600 BC would be pointless. So, as I say, until now I decided not to bother.
However, the recent gold price falls, after a long multi-year climb, have made me curious.  And I’ve previously been lucky with gold trading so there is no reason for me to fear it. So, finally, I have succumbed to the temptation to go gold chart hunting. And hopefully non-astrological readers will forgive me this little deviation into astro-language in order to gain some more insight into the future of gold values.
But where to start?  We can’t use long planetary  cycles as we don’t know which one to start with. We have to pick a specific date instead . But which one best describes the issue?  A chart for mining, for production/use or a price chart?
Since finding an initial production or use chart is almost impossible due to the timescales, and since as traders we are looking at the gold price ( rather than its physical properties and uses) that a gold price chart is best.  But priced in what? Sterling, dollars, silver, corn? Each option would tell us something different. I’ve plumped for dollars as gold is generally priced in dollars. In any case it is possible to use this chart together with the dollar and sterling charts to ‘convert’ to sterling.
There are a number of charts currently used by astrologers. These include:
·         A 11 a.m. 12 September 1919 London gold fix chart
·         A 9.40 am 19 Feb 1968 London fix chart
·         A number of 31 December 1974 charts ( including a 1 Jan 1975 one), based in NY and Chicago which represent the start of trade on Nymex ( comex) and CME following Gerald Ford’s issue of Executive Order 11825 re gold trading.
·         21 Jan 1980 The date of gold’s peak in 1980.
I’ve picked the gold peak date. My chart is thus set for London ( gold fixing location) for the 3 p.m. fix ( dollar peak) on Jan 21 1980.
 

 Let us look at this core chart by itself first.
We can see some key factors that will bear watching as we make comparisons with the other 3 charts:
·         Initially the chart looks odd. The rising sign is Cancer, ruler of the Moon and silver not Gold. But we must look to where Leo is in the chart to understand the picture better…
 
  •   There is a conjunction of the sun at 0 Aquarius – or zero degrees of a fixed sign. In aspect   to the sun/moon node. The conjunction is exactly opposite the 0 degree Leo Second house cusp of the chart representing physical resources.
This makes sense. We are looking at a very socially resilient physical element, traditionally ruled by the Sun. We would expect the fixed signs to feature.  Especially Leo.  And we would expect the second house to tell us something about value. In this case we have reached a peak so it makes sense that the conjunction is at its maximum angle form the 2nd house cusp.
 
  • The Moon is exactly trine Neptune and Neptune is within 10 mins of its sextile with Pluto. Obviously this ties the chart to the bigger Neptune Pluto cycles. We’d expect that as the whole US economy and thus the dollar is tied to that cycle. Remember this chart is not telling us about gold per se, but about the gold price is dollars.
·         The Moon is also approaching an opposition to Saturn – the indicator of the coming loss of faith by the people in general
 
·         Saturn itself is approaching the end of a cycle with Pluto. In fact 1981-2 would bring the end to that  Saturn/Pluto, Jupiter/ Saturn and Jupiter/ Pluto cycles and the start of new cycles that will take us through to 2020.
·         Mars is close to the base of the chart. This is possibly also an indicator of the beginnings of the collapse of the price that followed.
Conclusion: We need to pay particular regard to:
·         0 degree of the signs ( especially the fixed signs and notably the Leo Aquarius axis)
·         Around 21 degree of the signs – this is likely a dollar rather than a gold degree
·         13-15 of the mutable signs as key turning points- this makes sense in the context of mutables and is 45 degrees from 0 of the fixed signs.
·         Progressions of MC and Ascendant 
·         The interrelationship between the Pluto Saturn and Jupiter cycles
·         Aspects by the Moon as indicators of market sentiment
 as well as the wider Neptune Pluto cycles in the context of the major economic oil and consumer cycle I have discussed elsewhere.
 Now obviously there are some limitations to this chart, which must be borne in mind during any forecasting.
1)      It is not a definitive chart. Any other significant date in gold chart price history could be equally as valid.
The important thing is to fully understand the conditions that surrounded that date and time in order to extrapolate forwards ( or ,indeed, as we shall see, backwards)
 
2)      As mentioned, it is based on the dollar price and thus really describes not the value of gold but the currency pair: gold/dollar. It is as much a dollar chart as a gold chart.
3)      It is a recent chart. How can we look at long term gold trends when we only have a chart from 1980?
In this case I believe that the chart needs to be interpreted by reference to some earlier historic events. Furthermore it should be noted that, the official price in dollars, changed only 4 times between 1792 and 1968, in 1834, 1972 and 1973, i.e. earlier charts won’t correlate with intrinsic values anyway.