Monday, 25 February 2013

Nasdaq 2013-16

So, I suppose it is a test of the direction of markets in general to compare the evolution of the Dow with that of the Nasdaq. If there trends are the same over the 4 year period, then we can assume that the conditions are general. If they diverge then we know that this is saying something about the  composition of the indices.
Up until the end of 2012 the Nasdaq had always shown more of a recovery from crisis levels than the Dow. But, although the Nasdaq has gained in January 2013 ( and more so in late December 2012) it has not showed the same pattern as the Dow which has risen almost twice as fast in the last month and the Nasdaq had already reached highs back in September. The recent divergence is due mainly to a disproportionately large bad Apple which has been spoiling the bunch a little lately!
2013
However after early February some of the divergence reduces and there is sufficient strength from the background scenarios to support a spurt in trading, possibly reaching the pre financial crisis highs ; though obviously not pre bubble ones!
Things get interesting in April, when we can expect Nasdaq surprises to be in the news. Perhaps a peak is reached and then there is pull back. There is some of the old over-exuberance at play but it is tempered by investor fears for overall fundamentals. This is actually somewhat a key time for the market, maybe seeing the last of big IPOs for a while.
Investor sentiment is relatively positive in June, however there are tensions relating to the sustainability of the market aimed at newer types of businesses now that technologies are so embedded across the board. There could be actual  technological problems with the market at this time too.
The challenges come together by the summer. On the one hand there are the economic issues and on the other the nature of the Nasdaq itself. However there is sufficient momentum to prevent any significant pull back in prices. I would not expect further gains now though. Ther is too much general re-evaluation going on.
There is no change in the general conditions in September to November, ; pressures continue to build. However there is still a high level of expectation/speculation/faith in the market. While some companies will suffer, there will not be an overall fall in values.
The year ends with the same themes in play. A somewhat irrational belief in some major index components, but an economic background that undermines the overall market.
2014
There is no real change to the picture in early 2014. The general economic tensions reach a peak though. And there is likely to be a fall in the value of the index by late February as the concerns of the previous months come to a head. The overall negative sentiment then holds sway for the coming months  and there is less of the exuberance effect to counteract it.
The picture does not improve in May and June. The overall mood is one of fear and the overall effect is to restrain valuations.
July is more mixed, with some new positive sentiment, a little more of the past enthusiasm creeping back in – all in all reducing the impact of the negative conditions which still continue to dominate
September sees a shift in sentiment, reflecting the start of a new 30 year phase ( and the end of the previous one). The effect might well be to change the balance of the Nasdaq to a different type of business. There is certainly a challenge to the dearly held views of what the market is supposed to be for.
All the factors again converge in the last few months of 2014. There are a lot of challenges to the valuations and there appears to be quite significant general economic events and external conditions affecting the market at this time. While some positives till remain, the picture is difficult.  On balance though we’ll have fluctuations rather than new lows.
2015
There is evidence that the enthusiasm for the type of stocks on the market fades for a while in early 2015. Tricky conditions remain, although the position is more mixed and might involve unravelling the effects on the market of the events of late 2014.
The subdued mood continues throughout the first half of the year despite there being some positive influences coming into play.
This happens noticeably around June, when there is noticeable change in direction perhaps caused by merger or other conditions.
The summer seems to be more moderate in tone. The challenges remain but there is another bout of optimism.
By September there is a subtle change in the outer appearance of the Nasdaq. It becomes less dramatic; more conservative and concerned with sustainability than in its whole history to date. The impact on the value is mixed and likely to be observed as fluctuations rather than a new trend direction. However the market is still faced with all the same background conditions that have plagued it over the last 2-3 years and as a result there is most definitely no likelihood of speculative valuations.
The end of 2015 is characterised by unexpected announcements, and a continued subdued mood, although the picture is more stable than has been the case throughout the rest of the year.
2016
Just as we were about to give up on exuberance in the Nasdaq, it finds a new lease of life for a few more years. The main conditions have gone but there is encouragement from new sources for a while longer.
As a result January is a upwards looking month, with plenty of volatility and news.
Although February and March see the wider outlook impinging again- the overall impact is for more stability in the market. This might be boring but is more than needed at this point.
As a result there is little to remark on for April and May either
But June to August shows stability and renewed increase in the overall index.
Sept Oct is more mixed, but again the balance seems broadly positive. However we are talking sensible levels of positivity with valuations supported by fundamentals rather than blind faith.
By November we have therefore  reached the lows in this intermediate cycle and should see a sudden shift in sentiment.
December is therefore a quiet month but with a low level re-evaluation continuing that will improve the market fundamentals for the future.
 

Dow 2013-16

We noted in our original 2008 entry the importance of some of the early sign degrees in the chart of the Dow. Indeed it was what was used to predict that the impact of the cardinal cross in 2010 would not be as great as some were fearing. But times move on – and a mitigating influence under one scenario can be quite the opposite under another one.  We are at a key moment for the long term outlook for the market.
Over the coming 4 years we are moving towards a very serious situation for the market, but those developments will take time.
2013 
We have started 2013 with the Dow rising rapidly to its 2007 highs.  Despite the overhanging debt situation, there has been an unexpected enthusiasm for the economy, the President’s inauguration  and an expectation that growth may be returning. It all adds up to a view that almost everything in the stock garden is rosy and safe. Hmm, we’ll see about that.
We note that as February has started the Dow has topped a bit. Many of the positive forces from January are reducing now. There is still   some ongoing support from the whole investment industry as, of course, the cumulative liquidity of the last few years has plumped up all assets.
It looks as if we’ll stay around the current level, maybe even with some pullback for a while. But there is no major threat at present, merely some insecurity.
There is a little more activity around April and May. The index might receive  a boost in terms of trading levels and valuation. The signs are that trading levels will be high too.
However we are also beginning to see the start of another trend in May and June. One where the market diverges from reality and where there is both a risk of weakness and lack of direction and of unrealistic valuations. On balance the signs are of speculative buying. But care is needed as there is some instability around by this time so it is not possible to rely too much on the trend. However, even if the picture looks uncertain, investors do not have to worry about significant falls on a 2008 scale.
The mood continues into July and August, and although there is a little more restraint, there is also a tendency to trade a bit recklessly. The overall broad market valuation should remain intact though.
There appears to be less excitability in the market in September and a very significant turning point is reached by October.
The result of this is likely to be the high for some time has passed by November. It looks like we’ve reached a limit then. I would expect some selling – although volumes may also be lower. The year ends in a mood of consolidation and caution. I don’t see significant recovery of values after this.
2014
As January 2014 begins, trading continues to be restrained in a wait and see mode. The trend that initially started in May 2013 is stronger again but this time it is much more likely to be showing weakness.
February to May sees only more consolidation and some pullback in values coupled (particularly in the latter part of the period) with some volatility and a lot of sector switching.  There is a return to the conditions that typified October/November 2013 – with pulling back from any highs again. But there is also a feeling that there is the beginning of a build up to something more significant.
While June through August is the summer and does not bring much new, the feeling of agitation gets bigger as the period continues.
A number of critical points are about to be reached.
With September comes two themes. Investors become more decisive. But the market starts to show more weakness and lack of conviction which continues for a few weeks until towards the end of October.
While not overwhelmingly negative, this is generally a subdued and lacklustre time
By November while the background uncertainties remain there is a shift from inertia to action with, apparently, further negative consequences for the value of the index. The driver appears to be the wider economic climate- with fears for debt and growth potential holding things back.
December carries the theme on, However it should still be noted that despite the more subdued mood of 2014 compared to 2013, we are not in a crisis situation … yet.
2015
Although there are shifting sands in the background, January 2015 does not bring much change to the index. There is a holding pattern as the work started on sector shifting continues. There might be an increase in trade but not in prices.
By February, we should find that a change has subtly occurred as a 30 year phase comes to an end. Investors are worried and reducing exposure, rebalancing their portfolio of assets. But there is still hope and the situation is stable.  There are very powerful forces brewing though.
And in April, dramatic changes and events herald a new approach and a major shift in the nature of the index.
As May and June pass there is much excitement and volatility and overall things seem relatively ok. But by late June there is just too much pressure building up and the worries return together with more subdued trading. This picture stays in place throughout the summer months ( although there may be a short boost in late July). The whole market is undergoing a revolutionary change and values are likely to suffer as this will create uncertainty. The Dow is likely to undergo a significant change at this point – perhaps in composition, number of components or sector emphasis.
Such changes do not bring investor confidence. So September is therefore accompanied by a feeling of deep seated fear. But, although there are some minor fluctuations, and certainly no significant rises in the market at this time, there is no severe drop from then until November either.
The issues raised by the changes in the summer return in December. This is likely to be a very difficult time for many components of the Dow
leading investors to make dramatic changes to their portfolios and to reorganisation at a fundamental level
Following the events of 2015 the background theme of 2016 is a depressed index value.
2016
We have  a double whammy of the fear index in January 2016, and I would expect this to cause quite severe decrease in the index valuation and much media coverage.
The situation is a little better in the next couple of months. There is still weakness and investor uncertainty but there is more resilience in some sectors so negative sentiment is not felt across the board.
The period from April through to June 2016 is another key time. There is a lot of volatility and movement of funds on the one hand. On the other hand we have a critical point. There seem to be so many changes at this point – so many events and broader economic issues at play, that it is rather difficult to forecast how it will all play out. Overall though, I don’t like the look of this at all. It suggests that the US economic situation impinges far too much on the long term market – something that you will recall didn’t happen in 2008-9 when falls were sharp but subsequently moderated
 There is some let up in the difficulties over the summer but no major change in the trend. There is some evidence that investors will have lost their longer term belief in the market.
There is return to the difficult conditions by October. There seems to be an overall negative feel and challenges to even the more recent technology components of the index.
The end of 2016 is therefore not good. Although there are one or two positive perspectives that might suggest a turning point in the sentiment, the balance seems to be negative. There seems to be evidence of actions to pump up the market valuations in some way but there is by now scepticism from the investors and a refusal to believe in the potential for valuation recovery.
Though if you think this is bad, wait until 2018 and the period from 2022

US$-2013-16

2013
The dollar started 2013 weaker against the Euro and stronger against the Yen. However, this appears to be less to do with dollar and more to do with the view that the Yen was overbought and the Euro oversold.  It says relatively little about the dollar itself. This is really a readjustment and not necessarily the start of a trend. Although we can expect more volatility in February – and possibly some further depreciation against some currencies and commodities, I am not sure this will set the tone for the year.
Indeed March will probably show the dollar in a very good light. There is likely to be significant buying and an increase in the value of the currency.
In April and May there is the start of a key time in the dollar exchange.  What is interesting about this is that the relevant element of the currency  is that which is linked to the Renminbi. I see a breakdown in the link between them at this time.
However this is a long term change. There are also some short term influences at play. In April/May there are conflicting signals . There is positive view about the currency, but there are also some restrictions. On balance it looks like the dollar will move one way versus some currencies and the other vs the rest- rather like in January. Look to the individual forecasts for the other currencies to get an idea which way each pair will go.
In June there seems to be more liquidity again. The Fed may be drip feeding a little more into the markets at this time. It doesn’t seem to have a particularly negative impact on valuation that month though.
July sees a bit of drama – with currency trade magnified. August, however looks more tricky. Some of the issues from previous years are reactivated now and the most likely impact is that the dollar will depreciate for a few months.
 This trend continues into November and December. There is more evidence of liquidity during this time and less emphasis on the decoupling of the dollar from the Renminbi etc. However this is not an extremely unstable time. The currency is likely to rise versus the Yen due to the latter’s weakness at this time. It is certainly a time when there will be a defined trend.
 
2014
There is a change in  mood from the beginning of 2014.  At first there is an expansionary period although the Fed might overdo matters.
 
BY Feb-April the picture gets more complex. There is restriction and negative sentiment and a return to the decoupling from the Chinese and possibly other pegs. There could be some quite dramatic movements in this time, not to mention a not wholly positive focus on the Fed leadership.
The key timeframe is later though, in May /June. There is a real challenge due to US debts  and this will mainly be reflected in challenges to the Fed leadership at this time. However there are also some issues triggered by the US population . It is not great for the currency but it is not as negative as some periods over the last few years.
In August, there is another injection of inflationary liquidity but once again this seems to have minimal impact on the valuation of the dollar.
Indeed September is a particularly positive period for the currency – it should appreciate briefly now.
But this is not likely to last as the debt issue remains a problem in October. As  a result there could be a spot of volatility again which will once more require the Fed to be defensive.
The issue of dissolution of pegs comes back under the spotlight  by November. There is an attempt to manage trade in the currency, with a series of interventions by the Fed. However the overall effect seems to be both a devaluation in the currency and an undermining of the Fed at the end of this year.
2015
There is a real focus on fundamentals or lack thereof as 2015 begins. The challenges of the previous months continue and it is possible a low point is reached both in the currency’s value and the Fed reputation
There is some optimism and a feeling of comfort from the population though so the picture is not all bad.
The next few months are a little calmer, although there is still a generally negative sentiment on the currency.  There could be a dramatic change of direction around April/May time too.
June is a time of minor adjustment and not a time to be betting on trends.
 Then in July we return to the themes of the start of the year. Lows, major trading volatility and then some sudden positive uplift.
There is no clear trend over the last few months. The currency looks a positive bet in September but is depressed again by November and December. There is a boost in trade in the currency throughout the winter and spring.
 
2016
In early 2016, there is another period of mixed trends. Against some currencies there is stability until April but in other cases, there is still significant volatility.
Overall there is a sense of not being sure where things are going next.
The picture then becomes very quiet until July, when there is a period of fluctuations and uncertainty about trends again and there may even be a significant amount of trading but without any real direction.
 By November there is another period of divergence, when the dollar is rising vs some currencies and falling verses others. Nevertheless it is not a significantly bad period value wise.
 2017 on the other looks particularly interesting!

US 2013-16

There have been a number of shifts in US consciousness in the last decade. Some of these are very long term, some more moderate in nature.
As 2012 ended we saw Obama get re-elected and some consolidation of power as well as crisis talks on the debt ceiling as 2013 drew near.
2013
January has started with a positive feel, particularly in the housing sector and despite the fact that Q4 growth was less than expected. But the optimism is perhaps a little premature, there is still a lot of unemployment and inequalities are still increasing. Things might be clearer but they are a long way from resolved. There is a shakiness to the whole picture which is belied by the feeling that the economy is improving. This positive but insubstantial picture continues throughout the first quarter.
The first week of April heralds a change. The culmination of a cycle which started in 2007. There certainly seems to be more stability, and more openness. However there is also an awful lot of liquidity in the system . There will no doubt be more heated debates about the debt but there is no evidence of any restrictions being imposed in the whole period from April to June. Indeed the only negative indicator in this period is one that suggests the people are not impressed by the debt situation, but that is all.
Some of this dissatisfaction continues unto July and August. But again there is nothing to suggest that there are any restrictions in place. And there seems to be plenty of support for the President too.
There is a slight darkening of the mood   by September, and while the generally positive developments continue, there is a flicker of restriction as well.
The net balance is stability , but it is stability without a strong foundation.
The last two months of the year merely repeat these themes, with just one area of concern – that there will once again be some heated debates about economic direction.
2014
After a positive 2013, perhaps we can relax and assume that the problems are behind us. That seems to be what happens in January 2014 when there is a real sense of the US recovering its confidence.
However it turns out the confidence is misplaced. The 3 months from February to April, bring a change of mood. The level of debt begins to cause problems for the government, and there is a suggestion that the inequalities issue is becoming more critical.
The solution once more is to increase the funds available. But the ability to do so is reduced. The position of the President is subject to sudden un-stabilising influences. Indeed instability is the name of the game, there may be technology difficulties and there may even be evest such as earthquakes.
As a result, the internal debates are reignited by May. And the President/government must confront a serious and undermining challenge.
There is further instability into June And once again the solution may be liquidity. It does nothing for the credibility of the country’s finances though
It is power to the people in August as any financial boost comes up against a brick wall.
September is more mixed, continuing instability but muted by faith that it won’t last. Economic news is poor though and there is much restriction on communications
October is generally a positive month
But the year end sees more of the instability that has characterised the rest of the year
 
2015
The New year does not bring a new environment. It is more of the same.
Indeed January and February can be considered very tricky for the leadership. And there are real conflicts between the forces that harness technology for capitalistic purposes and the needs of the country.
Once again, there is an attempt to boost optimism ( either by financial actions or words), but it doesn’t work at all. There is a sense of having nowhere left to turn.
The peak of the difficult situation occurs in the second quarter of 2015. This is a very turbulent time, with debt limit problems and there is associated economic restriction.
It is all very uncertain and there is a sense of the idealistic belief in the pursuance of the individualistic American culture being undermined at this time. Also expect communication and internet difficulties.
The result is conflict by June. However this is not too serious as there are some moderating influences at play. Nevertheless the country is under some duress at this time.
August sees a continuation of the issues, the people are agitated and there is still pressure against government.
September sees a new opportunity to improve and looks to be a better month.
However it is back to severe challenges for the government in the last 3 months of the year. These continue to be accompanied by conflict, restrictions, and difficult economic conditions as well as a populace which is starting to demand fundamental change in the way the country’s finances are run.
The theme at the year end is that the American dream leads to  incompatibilities between individual and national achievement.  Though one doubts the US will embrace communism very soon!!
 
2016
As 2016 starts, the country remains in a real state of restriction, perhaps even some physical restrictions.
Debt is once again at the top of the agenda as are all the associated issues that we will have seen in 2015, questions about the economic model, heated debates and a people demanding that they regain the power of the Constitution that they have lost to the elites.
The situation shifts a little in the next few months. The debates become considerably more destructive. And once again, there is always the possibility that the energies manifest through natural disasters at this time.
It certainly marks a shift in consciousness as it is followed by 5 years of weak identity, for the country and its leadership.
The period from May to Nov is also characterised by more communication disruption and possibly deception. The restrictions that past quite quickly in January return through this period and it appears that the US will not be seen in a good light at this time. The debt problems obviously haven’t gone away and are no doubt part of the reason for the problems.
While the background themes are substantial and negative, there are short term ups and downs over the period and again the focus on the effects of the American dream. There may even be a delusionary faith that it can be easily resolved. 
In November, which should, all things being normal, be election time, shows a little bit more stability. There is sign of the public choosing a  change – but whether that is just a change in the individual which must happen anyway or a change in the party is less clear.
2016 ends with continued debate, the people feeling that they have been deceived and restrictions on action ( possibly preventing protests) or sit ins.

FTSE 2013-16

The FTSE may not have reached its 2000 peak, but it has produced a pretty solid performance over the last year and particularly in the last 3 months. Why is this? Looking at the evidence it seems to be all about the liquidity. Whatever can be said about government and bank policy on the country as a whole, all the signs are that the stock market is benefitting- a lot.
Indeed as 2013 begins the salient feature is that the global economic conditions , however bad, are actually benefitting this market at the moment in very powerful ways. That is not too say that there are still not some challenges, there are. The market still fears hitting those 2000 peaks again and pulls back when it senses too much momentum.
2013
Although there are some short term shifts in the next 2 months we can mostly expect more of the same. February shows some evidence of     volatility and over exuberance, and March, albeit a little calmer of the market reaching new highs.
April therefore is more mixed. There are some doubts about the sustainability of the valuations and  a feeling that too much emphasis is being put on this index.
May is therefore all talk about what will happen next and trade but no direction.
With June comes the beginning of a flatter phase. While there is still enthusiasm it is tempered with caution. There may be a significant volume of trade though.
July and August also show a surprising amount of activity for summer months, though there is still a tendency to question the validity of valuations given the longer term economic background, the short term position is better than expected and the market reflects this.
The conditions that dominated earlier in  the year continue  in September and October, and there is probably a lot of froth in the valuations at this time. There is no sign of any major falls though.
So by December the market still retains much of its 12 month momentum and begins 2014 in a positive frame of mind.
2014
The start of 2014 is of a similar mood to the end of 2013
There is  even a sense by February that the valuations are sustainable. However there are still residual doubts that undermine any tendency to go higher.
The mood changes by May, however. Although we should not expect major changes in the market valuation, things get much quieter at this time. Trading volumes are spasmodic and there is a feeling of caution again and a sense that there are some inherent weaknesses in the economic background to the market that need to be addressed.
The background conditions remain the same throughout and the market seems to be trading within limited ranges. Some index constituents may be having difficulties although most retain their strength.
The year therefore ends slightly shakily. Although there is less volatility, there is also a sense that valuations are unsustainable after all and they begin to be undermined.
2015
There is not much new action to report in the first two months, it seems like there is a holding pattern as the market looks for new direction. The only during this time excitement is the risk of technological glitches
March, however starts to see a significant change of sentiment. There seem to be merger talks in progress ( although whether this relates to index components of the market itself is unclear). There are still no big falls in value though, just less evidence of increases.
By May the new mood is becoming entrenched and carries on throughout June and July. Although there are changes within the market, there is little price direction.
These changes continue throughout the summer, with a series of announcements and no real direction as market participants try to work out which components will benefit from the changed environment and which will not.
The surprises continue in October, and again the questions over weaknesses in longer term fundamentals. Perhaps debts are a challenge – more likely it is the lack of potential for real growth that is the worry. There are likely to be some big swings in value as a result and a key turning point is reached by November when overall weakness emerges.
A large amount of trade in December  accompanies a major shift in the index which is likely to be in the spotlight at this time.
2016
2016 starts with the need for adjustment again. What were longer term worries about fundamentals have now become more immediate fears about valuations and as a result decreases in the overall value of the index. There could be quite significant selling over these months, although it is doubtful that the conditions are as bad as march 2009.
In any case, there is evidence of an alternative positive view manifesting by April. The two views seem to be fighting it out with volatility and significant funds flows accompanying the mood.  There is an unusual focus on the market at this time.
The mood does not change much in the coming months. This is an extremely important time for the market. With a series of peaks and troughs as weaknesses in some stocks are uncovered. There may be some significant changes in constituents
There is a longer term evaluation over the summer – although the themes don’t go away, there is less activity and more talk.
While the challenges haven’t disappeared by October, some of the  expansionary effects have. The result is likely to be suppressed trade and values
However, by December the picture is clearer. There is gradually less stress on values but more on volumes as once again market participants wait to see what will happen next. The year end might be surprisingly positive.

New Bank of England governor


As a little bonus to accompany the BOE forecasts, I thought I would take a look at the synastry between it, the UK chart and the new Governor’s chart. Warning: astrological symbolism follows.
Mr Carney was born in March 1965. This is very interesting, as he was therefore born at the time of the Uranus/Pluto Conjunction. No prizes for noticing that we are now in the next part of that cycle; the square. Coincidence – well maybe- he is after all a reasonable age for the job and perhaps other candidates would have much the same configuration in their charts.

However, Mr Carney wasn’t just born during the period of the conjunction, his chart is closely tied to it. Indeed his chart is extraordinary. Although we don’t have a birth time, it is still clear he was born at a critical time. He has Pluto Uranus Mars and the Moon in conjunction in Virgo opposite Sun Venus and Saturn in Pisces. Of course Neptune in Scorpio trines/sextiles these two conjunctions but Jupiter in Taurus does also. All his planets ( bar Mercury) form a rectangle . Pretty and pretty impressive too.  The fact that the Moon change signs rapidly means this particular picture only lasted for a day or so. We are all unique; but some charts are more unique than others.
But what about the synastry? His Sun (sextile Jupiter) conjoins the Bank’s Neptune – indicative of the nature of his role. But what stands out is that the Bank’s progressed Sun at 13 degrees Capricorn trines/sextiles his Pluto/Uranus conjunction. And 13 degrees is the degree of the Pluto Uranus Square in 2013-14, just as his progressed Sun reaches 13 degrees Taurus. Inescapable. Cometh the hour, cometh the man

But I’m not going to comment on whether he is the right person for the job or not. That misses the point He is where he is meant to be and the results are neither to be blamed on him or credited to him. What will be, will be; destiny will out.
I also took a peak at the synastry with the UK chart. Mr Carney has Neptune at 18 degrees Scorpio. Exactly conjunct the UK Neptune in the 2nd House of money and resources. Neptune returning to any degree is a once every 165 year event- again we are living in very interesting (but inevitable) times. Since Neptune in the UK chart does indeed rule the wider money supply/currency, what this tells us is that the coming period will be key for the UK currency.

And I would just like to add that 18 Scorpio is a particularly lovely degree (says the owner of a 18 degree Scorpio Sun placementJ)

Sterling 2013-16

Again we use the Bank of England as a reference for this forecast:
 
Other than the announcement of the new Governor, 2012 was  relatively quiet on the BOE/Sterling front. Although there have been some shifts in Sterling in January 2013 this is due more to revisions on Europe and Japan than any reflection on the UK itself.
There are gradual developments that will change things radically in future but not so much in 2013.
Yes, there is still the balance of quantitive easing to be managed and yes there is a long term debt problem that will have consequences but nothing is currently critical in the financial markets. And the current Governor or other executives can’t make big changes yet either.
2013
It does not appear that anything significant changes at the beginning of the year .
There may be unexpected negative announcements by March, ( at the time of publishing this we had had a UK credit downgrade) or perhaps a change in the physical currency but this should not have too much impact in the medium term.
There are changes afoot in April- but we know that anyway. In fact, it appears that most of the effects then will be relating to management of people internally within the BOE . It is not looking like a crisis period at all for the currency itself.
Obviously the change of Governor will create a bit of excitement in July and a feeling of new broom. But it is unlikely we’ll see too much going on initially. But there will be a new feel to the organisation that will be evident even by August and September
The first slightly testing time is likely to be around October/Nov. But the impression is that this is likely to be a need for adjustment – so perhaps some internal matters and a bit of disagreement on the way monetary policy ought to go at the time- maybe even with government. But nothing that will have too much impact on the country at large as yet.
The year end looks much like its beginning, possible some brief weakness in Sterling but nothing particularly lasting.
2014
2014 Starts as 2013 ended, with some moderate activity and a slightly better outlook but still no big shifts.
February to March is a different kettle of fish. At this time we have the major global configuration, fully activated and attacking the foundations of the currency and/or the way the Bank runs its decision making on rates and stability.
 The configuration reaches its peak around April, when there is likely to be significant speculation and trade. The new Governor provides some surprising but positive response.
June shows a continuation of the themes with questions asked about what exist to sustain the currency.
There could be a marked re-evaluation in July August. There is evidence that there could be significant selling of the currency at that time. However there still seems to be support for the leadership at the Bank.
While the potential selling abates by September, the valuation question remains. Another opportunity for Carney to be creative.
There is more activity in November and December. While some of the more fundamental challenges have past, there is still room for short shocks and volatility throughout the period into 2015.
2015
There is a background theme that grows throughout 2015, of faith in the Bank’s direction  backing the value of the currency. While it must be said that this is not fundamental support, it will suffice for a while.
However  there seems to be a bit of a resulting anomaly, where the currency gains support but at the slight expense of the reputation of the leadership.
Indeed all the focus in March is on the Governor and not on the currency. Although once more if there is an election at this time, that would make sense- there will be little direction for Sterling and much speculation about how the bank will operate if there is a new Chancellor.
There is little of note really in April and May. Behind the scenes there is some uncertainty but the external situation is relatively positive and stable.
The summer is a bit more interesting. But it is difficult to forecast the direction of the trend due to conflicting factors. On the one hand there is leadership stability, but there are still fundamental valuation challenges and so a bit of a stand-off between bulls and bears.
This picture continues into November. But with a noticeable shift in the balance of power. It’s all upbeat announcements and positive trade and then some surprising policy shifts  which have both noticeable positive short term but negative longer terms effects.
December is quieter as a result of people being in a wait and see mode.
2016 
Some of the challenges of 2013-15 are lessening as 2016 arrives. There is even a positive sense of monetary value again – relaxation of restrictions  but not quantitive easing)
However the result seems to be increased volatility around March although to what extent this might be due to global issues needs to be investigated through other currencies’ forecasts later.
May and  June is certainly a positive time for Sterling 
But July is much more tricky, accompanied by more trading, swings in value and mis-information.
Although there is change in emphasis by September, there are still a number of problems. Most notably the beginnings of a plan to start to tighten the money supply again.
This is likely to cause the year to end on a much trickier note. With announcements that affect long term debt, and volatility as the market tries to digest the longer term of impact of the proposed policy changes.
 
 

UK 2013-16

The background theme to the UK over the period 2012-2014 is one of fundamental slow change to government, structures and the foundations and roots of the UK identity, .   (As I write this they’ve just dug up and identified Richard III, a light hearted manifestation but apposite),  including the independence of the regional nations such as Scotland as well as the demographic shifts. Some of the themes are very long term – lasting to 2020 and even into 2030. So while there might be some short terms shocks it is the long term influences that are the real key to the new environment.
 In 2012 we saw the work of this particular configuration dredge the media and also making some radical changes to education which are still on-going. But the power of this particular influence is only just getting going and it is shifting to a different arena. The shift will take a year or two and many of the issues that have been under the spotlight will remain at least partially so up to another year or two. But it is the shift to the core structures that is of the most interest now.
The new focus of the influence is initially slow not radical, but there is an on-going shift in the balance of the economy between sectors and some dearly held traditions must change. The influence is also revealing the unsustainability of the polarisation between rich and poor, Unfortunately much of the damage has been done over the last 3 decades – the current configuration  is merely uncovering it. There is no possibility to recreate the boom years as they were built on the quicksands of increasing debt.
We also see around us the impact of government policies in austerity at work on benefit changes etc. as well as the need to manage health service costs . The effects are also eroding the sheen of both Investment Banking and private equity.
We’ve also seen how the wealthy and foreign buyers have held up the property in central London despite the fact that the market in general is subdued at best. Property will be a key area to watch in the coming years.
Also resonating to the current themes are all types of underground matters, power generation – particularly Shale gas, which is a particularly interesting manifestation of the long term 2011-2016 configuration
2013
It looks as though Feb-March might show some very subdued economic figures particularly in consumption numbers and financial services. Any sort of drive, positive or negative will be suppressed. Not a time for action.
Matters are likely to come to a critical point around March. The UK was protected from the worst of the configurations that occur now, when they happened previously in the summer of 2012, with the Olympics providing the outlet for this energy. Now, however, challenges are likely to be more apparent. These may come in the form of partner country’s upsetting the UK balance , or by direct political or other confrontation.
There are some influences mitigating the impact but these are likely to be brief compared to the wider on-going challenges. As a result of these mitigating factors an otherwise severe challenge will not necessarily destroy the current leadership. 
A turning point occurs in April. It should be a time of openings and launches and showing the UK to the world, but given the difficult background this is likely to be both a distraction and an increase in intensity for the prevailing issues.
The trigger point is therefore May, accompanying the eclipses that month. Expect announcements and a severe challenge to leadership at this time.
 June sees a continuance of the underlying themes of the year already discussed in the introduction.
July looks like it will be back in distraction mode – perhaps this will be due to the Royal baby. Although the focus on the bank of England’s new boss will also feature at this time. It looks like a little bit of light relief time.
But there is another critical point in August, and this sets the scene for the remainder of the year.
A repeat of some of the themes from May occurs in September/-December – another peak in the evolution of the underlying trends– particularly around the first week of November. Expect questions about land and property, wealth distribution, energy and national identity/independence again. The issue of benefit reduction will again be at the top of the agenda.
2014
Whilst the worst of the challenges to leadership and government are over by the start of 2014, we can by no means assume we are out of the woods and there may be some sudden shocks to come.
January through to March also sees a resurrection of some of the themes from March 2013.
The influence weakens by April and May sees a particularly upbeat time. No doubt there will be lots of positive economic data at this time and well as a general party atmosphere. And of course the usual pre-world cup ( probably misplaced- we’ll look at that another time) euphoria    
June through Sept is characterised by liquidity restrictions – and possibly communications restrictions too. These will have the same issue of undermining the leadership a little, but perhaps since the timing is over the summer the effects will be rather more muted. In any case these restrictions should be over by October when there is another phase of , probably surprising, positive news.
November to December and into the beginning of the new year is a bit of a mixed bag though.  Remember, these positive themes are short term – the more fundamental and serious questions relate to the longer terms trends which cannot be ignored for ever
2015
There is a shift in emphasis in 2015, which will probably be noticeable by March. A focus on financial restriction shifts to being a focus on communication restriction; media, information systems, roads etc. could all be affected over the coming 2 years. But it is not really a new era, in that many of the wider themes remain.
However, the first quarter is as much of a mixed bag as December was. On the one hand there is a positive energy carried over from last summer, but on the other new and greater challenges are emerging to threaten some key areas such as the City institutions and highlighting the inequality issues again.
There is a shift in the mood of the people in April/May and there might be some surprises. However any shocks are pleasant. This would be the last date for an election of the administration in place from 2010, and  does not look too bad for the incumbent party at all.
The period over the summer also shows some positive shifts which are not unpleasant.
However the background themes remain and there may be problems again by the autumn.
The respite from the more severe issues that has been in place through much of the middle of the year is now ending as the difficulties from the spring return.
This is most strongly felt by the people in December ( although it is quite possible that this signifies a hard winter spell as it does a difficult economic climate.
2016
We can expect some focus on the currency in 2016 ( for more information see the separate Bank of England analysis)
There are external challenges to the people briefly at this time but there is mainly a sense of passivity.
This passivity continues into March and April, accompanied by  some big announcements or media expansion.
The summer is not too eventful either. But this is misleading. There is a change in the way the UK people relate that is happening in the background that will have a permanent impact on the way the country operates in the future. Given the focus of this on communications it could affect the BBC, broadcasting or telecoms or it could be a turning point in population  composition or language, and even given past correlations with this point influence the relationship with Australia
Overall the impact for late 2016 looks positive, but a much trickier phase in building in the wings towards 2020.