Icelandic art to make you think -do perfumes have colors? (see end of post for more details)
Iceland is only on my list due to its exciting period from 2008 (banks) to 2010 (eruption). It wouldn’t make the list on other criteria. So, with this forecast, it is rather a case of “I’ve started therefore I’ll finish.”
I probably won’t be going into as much detail as I do with other countries unless I see something very exciting again to report.
I would also like to note that I am still starting all my forecasts from January 2013, even though much of the year has past. This is for completeness and to give a more solid foundation to the future forecasts.
The first thing to note is that most of the heavy configurations of the earlier years have now past. The situation is summarised here:
Briefly he says ; while countries such as Ireland and Greece, which handled their crises more conventionally, continue to struggle, Iceland looks like an economic miracle: the country that went over a cliff, hit the bottom, and bounced. Unemployment has fallen from its post-crisis peak of more than 9% to a relatively respectable 4.7%. Inflation, which once approached 20%, is now below 4% and is expected to keep falling. And after shrinking by around 10% in 2009-2010, the national economy has returned to a steady simmer, with growth in the region of 2% per year since 2011.
The first couple of months of 2013, were however still concerned with some of the historic issues. But a change was in the air, such a change in fact that the people seemed to want to go back to the conditions that got them into trouble in the past.
The elections in April therefore resulted in an upset to the status quo and a transfer of power more towards the right.
This was not too upsetting however and there were definite suggestions of most things settling down in the country. Other than tentative discussions by the new government about EU membership and a return to whale harpooning after a two year ban, not much of note has been happening at all in the country
Indeed the most exciting thing was the brief idea that Edward Snowden would seek asylum there, which came to nothing.
Although there is little to suggest that banking is still on the minds of the country, one suspects that there are occasional lapses into the subject and the resultant economic changes as not everyone is equally happy with the outcomes.
September is not expected to be eventful. But October is likely to be more interesting, with restrictions being felt more keenly and some dissatisfaction being shown.
The dissatisfaction is likely to turn to disillusionment by November, but the general conditions are not too bad. There may also be discussions again about water issues such as fishing etc.
December is a mixed but not particularly noteworthy month
Similarly there is not much to remark about in January 2014. Although in February there may be some brief residual issues relating to the debt situation.
Certainly, in March there is a sense of restriction for the people and a little less stability.
April to July is a bit more eventful too. Once again there are issues relating to water and fishing, perhaps also to the currency. There is also some evidence that there may be the beginnings of some minor eruption at this time.
Although the themes continue into August and September, these months look to be positive overall.
October and November are more mixed, with more emphasis on possible eruptions – or perhaps just heater discussions about economic matters.
December sees closure of the 12 year cycle which created and destroyed the indebtedness. There is likely to be some disagreement between government and people about the way to proceed in future.
2015 is characterised by a number of issues. There is an on-going low level sense of restriction in the country as a whole. Some hidden matters relating to communication etc might come to light, and there may be water, fishing or even climate issues to content with.
The themes are in evidence from the beginning of the year.
In February there are some challenges for the leadership despite a drive for economic growth but again these may also be possible early signs of eruption.
The whole period from March to May seems to be the most likely for things to spill out. However if this means volcanic activity there is less evidence of the problems from smoke clouds which accompanied 2010’s. Still it is a disruptive phase all round.
June’s events suggest a return to the discussions of December 2014 and the finalisation of that 12 year cycle.
July and August look excellent economically and politically.
September is a bit more dramatic, with the country perhaps being in the world spotlight for a while.
But this would be temporary as October is more internally focussed on the people.
The end of the year is mixed again, with a return to the communication issues, the water/climate matters and the more tricky condstions for the government.
Some of the issues that have been creeping up in 2015 come to a head in 2016 in what might be rather disruptive ways.
There are restrictions from January, with crackdowns on some behind the scenes ( or perhaps illegal) activity.
Restrictions, and deceptions, seem to be there theme of the spring.
There is a brief return to the conditions of September 2015 in April, but things are more free flowing.
May is lighter in tone. But June to august sees much more drama, challenge to government thinking and a negative external image.
September therefore sees a lot of the things that have been brewing over 2014-16 coming to a head. Hot water is an Icelandic theme and this is particularly the case now.
October is a mixed month – there are conflicting signals, all relating to the behind the scenes issues that were the focus earlier in the year.
November is calmer but there is a now a once in a country lifetime shift to a new economic model perhaps based on the country’s natural resources.
December’s events only serve to further emphasise the foregoing matters.
About the artwork