Of the South American countries only Venezuela has had as
tough a time as Argentina in 2016. Many of the anticipated benefits of the new
president Macri have yet to be evidenced particularly a stop to the spiralling
inflation.
January and February 2017 are actually moderately good
months in the country. Of course it is summer time and perhaps some of the
pressures are off. The people struggle on – they are truly all in it together
The exception is the leadership which feels as if it has a heavy burden on its
shoulders and in conscious of the budgetary and inflationary constraints.
March to May is similar. The pressures on the leadership
remain, especially in relation to the mix of inertia and inflation. Although
there are increasing opportunity to make changes which might just be enough to
provide some positive news in this period.
June to August is a quieter phase. Inflation and budget
constraints continue but there is far less development in any direction now and
less focus on the leadership. Just another boring phase.
September and October, however, are more interesting.
Although there are still budget issues and the inertia continues, the inflation
might be tapering off. However just when
the leadership has some good news to impart the people are getting fed up with
them.
November and December
are this months when there is a brief return for the government to the
pressures of earlier in the year. There is a sense of the country moving into
new territory and having reached the worst point in terms of difficulties.
There may be positive news on debts.
January and February 2018 is mixed with some disconnect
between leadership and people and we haven’t seen the back of the inertia quite
yet either. However there may be some big surprises and some of these may be
positive.
This phase of positive news continues into the next few
months. March to May sees the beginnings of a shift within the country with a
focus on the people and with things looking reasonably positive for the
leadership.
However there are new difficulties and hardships that can
create pockets of difficulties now - there are indications of harsh attempts to
undermine policies.
June to August is a mixed period. The issue of inflation is
key now- but we will need to look at the currency forecast and maybe even be
closer to the date to fully understand whether the signs point to significant
escalation in inflation or the end of it- but carrying on as before is not an
option.
September and October follow from the previous 3 months, and there
are signs that some very crucial turning points are reached. Changes can happen
surprisingly quickly in this phase.
November and December are more mixed and the year end might
be characterised by some difficulties between government and people.
January and February 2019 is a period of opportunity. The
indicators we talked about in mid 2018 return so the focus may be on the
inflationary position. However for the most part the other signs are better,
there is opportunity some financial stability ( though not without the odd
outbreak of problems) and far less focus on the leadership which in this
environment must be a good sign.
March to June is mixed with some of the indicators from the
early months continuing and the picture looking positive for the people.
However there may be a return to inertia at the same time as inflation is
addressed.
July to September is not a period when much progress is
made. It is a time when the positives and negatives tend to offset and moving
in any direction is hard. However this is misleading as great progress may be
made behind the scenes.
October and November see the focus once more on inflation
and debts ( again we need to understand what this means for the currency to get
the full picture).
But in general this looks to be an extraordinarily positive
time for the country and for the government.
December is both more difficult – there are once again signs
that there may be some unpleasant actions and although the people may end the
year on a high the government is still making adjustments to its policies and
programmes.
2020
Of course January and February 2020 is a time of major
focus. And while Argentina does not seem to be at the eye of the storm, it is
clearly affected. The financial conditions that characterised 2019 continue though
there is some very positive news on medium term economics. However there are
lots of detailed adjustments and the result may be hardship and possibly
pushback from the people.
March to June sees pushback more likely as there is more
energy and less restriction. But at least some of the picture must be improving
as the people are aligned with the government now and indeed there is positive
news regarding the country as it adjusts its position within the world.
August and September is more tricky again, but there are no
new developments.
October and November are again both intense but also
potentially positive months for the people despite ongoing issues of
inertia.
Shifts, perhaps not significant but nevertheless
interesting, in the country’s position
continue.
While the 2020 trends don’t end in December they are
drastically reduced and this leads to some shocks for the people and a
moderately tricky period.
However the year end itself is noticeably uneventful when
compared with other nations.
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