Thursday, 23 February 2017

Argentina 2017-2020



Of the South American countries only Venezuela has had as tough a time as Argentina in 2016. Many of the anticipated benefits of the new president Macri have yet to be evidenced particularly a stop to the spiralling inflation.
January and February 2017 are actually moderately good months in the country. Of course it is summer time and perhaps some of the pressures are off. The people struggle on – they are truly all in it together The exception is the leadership which feels as if it has a heavy burden on its shoulders and in conscious of the budgetary and inflationary constraints.
March to May is similar. The pressures on the leadership remain, especially in relation to the mix of inertia and inflation. Although there are increasing opportunity to make changes which might just be enough to provide some positive news in this period.
June to August is a quieter phase. Inflation and budget constraints continue but there is far less development in any direction now and less focus on the leadership. Just another boring phase.
September and October, however, are more interesting. Although there are still budget issues and the inertia continues, the inflation might be tapering off.  However just when the leadership has some good news to impart the people are getting fed up with them.
 November and December are this months when there is a brief return for the government to the pressures of earlier in the year. There is a sense of the country moving into new territory and having reached the worst point in terms of difficulties. There may be positive news on debts.
January and February 2018 is mixed with some disconnect between leadership and people and we haven’t seen the back of the inertia quite yet either. However there may be some big surprises and some of these may be positive.
This phase of positive news continues into the next few months. March to May sees the beginnings of a shift within the country with a focus on the people and with things looking reasonably positive for the leadership.
However there are new difficulties and hardships that can create pockets of difficulties now - there are indications of harsh attempts to undermine policies.
June to August is a mixed period. The issue of inflation is key now- but we will need to look at the currency forecast and maybe even be closer to the date to fully understand whether the signs point to significant escalation in inflation or the end of it- but carrying on as before is not an option.
September and October  follow from the previous 3 months, and there are signs that some very crucial turning points are reached. Changes can happen surprisingly quickly in this phase.
November and December are more mixed and the year end might be characterised by some difficulties between government and people. 
January and February 2019 is a period of opportunity. The indicators we talked about in mid 2018 return so the focus may be on the inflationary position. However for the most part the other signs are better, there is opportunity some financial stability ( though not without the odd outbreak of problems) and far less focus on the leadership which in this environment must be a good sign. 
March to June is mixed with some of the indicators from the early months continuing and the picture looking positive for the people. However there may be a return to inertia at the same time as inflation is addressed.
July to September is not a period when much progress is made. It is a time when the positives and negatives tend to offset and moving in any direction is hard. However this is misleading as great progress may be made behind the scenes.
October and November see the focus once more on inflation and debts ( again we need to understand what this means for the currency to get the full picture).
But in general this looks to be an extraordinarily positive time for the country and for the government.
December is both more difficult – there are once again signs that there may be some unpleasant actions and although the people may end the year on a high the government is still making adjustments to its policies and programmes.
Of course January and February 2020 is a time of major focus. And while Argentina does not seem to be at the eye of the storm, it is clearly affected. The financial conditions that characterised 2019 continue though there is some very positive news on medium term economics. However there are lots of detailed adjustments and the result may be hardship and possibly pushback from the people.
March to June sees pushback more likely as there is more energy and less restriction. But at least some of the picture must be improving as the people are aligned with the government now and indeed there is positive news regarding the country as it adjusts its position within the world.
August and September is more tricky again, but there are no new developments.
October and November are again both intense but also potentially positive months for the people despite ongoing issues of inertia. 
Shifts, perhaps not significant but nevertheless interesting,  in the country’s position continue.
While the 2020 trends don’t end in December they are drastically reduced and this leads to some shocks for the people and a moderately tricky period.
However the year end itself is noticeably uneventful when compared with other nations.

No comments: