To Predict or not to predict, that is the question.
Many astrologers prefer not to predict and, in personal astrology, there are many reasons why they may choose not to do so. When it comes to financial astrology, however, there is a clear reason, what I will call the astrologer’s dilemma; financial markets are sentiment driven.
Before I continue, let us address objections to that statement; some may claim that studies show that the major markets perfectly reflect available information. However, the deductive error often made from this is that prices perfectly reflect all relevant information in the universe. This is naturally garbage. Available is the key word: all information, even when pretty much complete and accurate is historic, this tells us nothing about the future. Prices of investments are of course based on belief about the relationship between what has happened and what will happen. They are therefore highly vulnerable to sentiment and to new “data” about the future, whether reliable or not.
Thus, the dilemma. Unlike the situation where the astrologer predicts an earthquake or typhoon, where knowledge can only help the overall situation, if an astrologer presents a strong argument that a market will crash or bank will fail, then if enough people follow the astrologer’s advice the market will crash and the bank will fail. Is the astrologer then responsible for the outcome?
When I looked at the charts of Northern Rock and the Bank of England last summer, I took the decision not to report my findings, in fear that this might contribute to the potential instability.
The question has become even more pertinent with the investigations by regulators into possible bogus information about some financial institutions this year.
However, without such predictive licence this blog would be just another commentary on the current situation. Furthermore, more information, provided that it is not bogus, must always be better than less. Finally, it is now my view that, since there are enough people who do not accept the tenets of astrology, any price movements resulting from a prediction would be more than offset by those betting against its veracity. So my decision is that prediction is, on balance, beneficial. You can agree or not- you pays your money; you takes your choice.