Wednesday, 11 June 2008

The Astrologer's Dilemma


To Predict or not to predict, that is the question.



Many astrologers prefer not to predict and, in personal astrology, there are many reasons why they may choose not to do so. When it comes to financial astrology, however, there is a clear reason, what I will call the astrologer’s dilemma; financial markets are sentiment driven.

Before I continue, let us address objections to that statement; some may claim that studies show that the major markets perfectly reflect available information. However, the deductive error often made from this is that prices perfectly reflect all relevant information in the universe. This is naturally garbage. Available is the key word: all information, even when pretty much complete and accurate is historic, this tells us nothing about the future. Prices of investments are of course based on belief about the relationship between what has happened and what will happen. They are therefore highly vulnerable to sentiment and to new “data” about the future, whether reliable or not.

Thus, the dilemma. Unlike the situation where the astrologer predicts an earthquake or typhoon, where knowledge can only help the overall situation, if an astrologer presents a strong argument that a market will crash or bank will fail, then if enough people follow the astrologer’s advice the market will crash and the bank will fail. Is the astrologer then responsible for the outcome?

When I looked at the charts of Northern Rock and the Bank of England last summer, I took the decision not to report my findings, in fear that this might contribute to the potential instability.

The question has become even more pertinent with the investigations by regulators into possible bogus information about some financial institutions this year.

However, without such predictive licence this blog would be just another commentary on the current situation. Furthermore, more information, provided that it is not bogus, must always be better than less. Finally, it is now my view that, since there are enough people who do not accept the tenets of astrology, any price movements resulting from a prediction would be more than offset by those betting against its veracity. So my decision is that prediction is, on balance, beneficial. You can agree or not- you pays your money; you takes your choice.








EURO : 2008-2012

Introduction

In the last few years, the Euro has strengthened vs. the US dollar and even in the last year against Sterling. This contrasts markedly with its path in the early years of its incarnation. However its existence is often questioned as significant imbalances also exist between countries.
Now it must be said that, contrary to some claims, the Euro is not wholly responsible for these imbalances. Some are cultural; Italy was, is, and probably will be just Italy regardless of currency or regime.
Some are driven by individual factors. Whilst Euro rates may have helped stoke housing booms in Spain and Ireland for example, there were other factors at play. Both Spain and Ireland were recipients of significant European grants in 1990s. Spain was also for a long time the main beneficiary of second home buying and migration from UK and Germany, and Ireland benefited in the same decade from the introduction of a foreign financial company tax regime which led to huge pressure first on Dublin house
prices which spread across the country. These were booms led by country specific situations, perhaps enhanced by the security of the EU, but not attributable to the Euro itself.

However it is still argued that the Euro accentuates the imbalances by providing access to low rates in already booming countries. But even that needs qualification. While it might be easier and less risky to borrow in Euros in a Euro country, it is not a requirement. Even without the Euro, companies and individuals would have had access to the low rates offered by other currencies.

Finally some imbalances are a product of the distribution of history and resources, an issue for any country anywhere: whilst the US might be a tighter union than the EU, it is still a Federation and the dollar may be failing at present, but it is not doing so because of the substantial differences between Montana and California. Countries also possess such differences internally yet maintain common currencies – London does not have one currency and Newcastle another.

So many of the arguments for why the Euro could fail are at best slightly misleading and at worst completely fallacious. However that does not mean that the Euro is a safe bet- to assess it potential in the next 4 years we need to understand the broader economic situation in the region.

Where are we now?

The Euro’s trend vs. the dollar and sterling masks the fact that in the last two years the Euro has failed to keep pace with commodities- falling against both oil and gold in 2007 and against oil in 2008.

Furthermore, Europe has not been immune to the credit crisis. Indeed its banks, arguably, have suffered as much if not more than some of the US ones. While the ECB has been more measured in its response than the Fed, rates were already relatively low and remain so and the ECB has increased money supply. Both these justify somewhat the fall against commodities.

However, with exceptions, some which we have mentioned, as a whole the region is not as indebted at a personal level as either the UK or the US. It is, in fact, less dedicated to consumerism generally. That has its own downsides – GDP growth – if you believe it matters in the developed world – has overall been weak in the region and social policy pressures and commitments higher. But on balance we shouldn’t expect quite such dramatic effects as in the US since there is more cushion in the system. However the region is an exporter to the US and independence from that country’s problems would be impossible.


Obviously we are limited in the amount of historic astrological data we have for the Euro. And indeed, as the same goes for the ECB, I haven’t studied that chart in any depth. Looking at the EEC chart really doesn’t help with the currency picture either. So these interpretations have no direct precedents.

What is notable when we look at the Euro chart is that, after some hard aspects involving the Euro Venus, Saturn and Pluto in the first 3 years, from 2003 until 2007 the transits and progressions were, on balance, relatively benign. That is changing again in 2008. Pluto is currently at around 0 degrees of Capricorn. Not quite conjunct the Euro IC or square its Ascendant, but close. Saturn is also strengthening its effect at the moment – although that should improve in the coming months.


The picture for March to June has been mixed. Clearly against the dollar and gold things there has been strength, but against oil almost none. It seems that the price of oil is starting to undermining the fundamentals of the region and that this is starting to have an impact on the perceived worth of the currency.

The BBC website on 9th June quoted the striking Spanish truck drivers. “We are the ones who move the goods that this country needs to keep working," the head of the transport association federation Fenadismer, Julio Villascusa, told Cadena SER radio. "If we stop because we haven't got the money to buy fuel then the country will stop."

No doubt this theme will repeat across the region as time unfolds.

June 2008 till February 2009



The mixed picture continues into June and July. Jupiter in sextile with the Euro’s Jupiter and transiting Uranus, by itself, is positive, though not stable, but Jupiter is also conjoining the Euros’ progressed sun and squaring its Mars. This suggests disputes and also more volatility (and gains?) against the dollar. However there is a potentially tricky time in August where Saturn squares the Euro’s Pluto, suggesting some tendency to undermine its strength again.

Furthermore, the August Eclipse at 24 degrees Leo, with Neptune there, picks up the Euro’s North Node. People are definitely going to question the raison d’etre of this currency this summer. No doubt it will once again be blamed for problems totally outside its control. However the aspect does not directly challenge the chart’s planets and it is likely that all that results is uncertainty, rather than any policy, or even significant value, changes.

The themes repeat as Jupiter goes direct in September through December, with no significant change of emphasis until around February and March 2009. At this time Pluto finally reaches its conjunction with the IC and square to the Ascendant of the Euro chart. This is very challenging. And the fact that around the 19th February there is a double whammy when Uranus is transiting Jupiter and a Jupiter/Mars conjunction transits the Euro chart’s Uranus. This is highly disruptive, yet there is still no evidence of significant reduction in value. It seems that monetary inflation of the Euro will not match that of the dollar even though there may be continued market volatility.


I don't expect any major country to pull out of the currency though. Politically it is much safer for a country to blame the Euro, than to pull out and have only themslevs to blame.





Spring 2009 to Spring 2010



So what about the Neptune /Jupiter/ Chiron conjunction of May 2009? Does this affect the chart? We know it opposes the north node – the purpose of the Euro, but that surely only refers to the prospects for the Euro as encouraging closer political ties via the constitution, which seem to be on shifting sands at this time. It is not a reference to the Euro’s value as a currency.


The aspect also certainly picks up the chart’s Moon at 24 gemini, its progressed Mars at 23 Libra and its Saturn at 26 Aries. But these are all soft aspects. The problems at this time just don’t seem to be specifically Euro related. If it wasn’t for that Pluto gnawing away at the base of the chart we could conclude that all was ok in Euroland at this time.

In fact the aspects throughout 2009 are predominantly positive. Maybe there is a slightly inflationary background in May, maybe September sees some adjustment vs. other currencies – but the picture is still not bad.

However December 2009 looks less promising. Now the Pluto aspect is reinforced with Saturn on the Ascendant. The aspect continues into early 2010, again with a suggestion of some soft monetary policy ( Neptune and Jupiter continue to sextile Saturn) but still nothing on the scale that the US $ seems to encounter in the same period.

I find it hard to believe that the Euro will rise much further against the dollar- the relative prices of goods in each are already starting to look unsustainable. But the charts seem to imply that whilst both will weaken, the dollar will continue to be subject to more severe devaluation.

Summer 2010 – mid 2011


So what about that cardinal cross in summer 2010? Will that change the trend? Maybe. At that point Uranus and Jupiter reach the Euro chart's descendant axis. The cardinal square really hits the angles of this chart. It is hard to imagine countries dropping out and adopting a new currency- but perhaps there is by this stage such a momentum against fiat currency as a whole that it is not a break up of the Euro that is at stake here but, rather, a fundamental re-evaluation of all currencies including the Euro and a preference for some new form of exchange or standard.

The aspect hits the US$ and Fed charts’ progressed angles, many planets in the Bank of England chart, the Euro natal angles and the renmimbi Mars/Jupiter conjunction. That looks like a full house and a time to embrace a major change.

The picture continues through the end of 2010 and into 2011. But there is an interesting six month trine between transiting Uranus and the Euro progressed Moon. Whereas the US chart shows restrictions on trade at this point, the Euro chart seems to suggest that the people are freely trading even whilst the Euro is under pressure. It is a curious mix and I confess I don’t have enough information at this stage to see how it plays out. I will have to return to it later.

What we do get is a change by spring 2011. Until then there are sufficient positive factors to offset the cardinal cross. But by April 2011 the core of the cross remains but Jupiter opposes Mars and Saturn squares the Euro Sun and progressed ascendant as well. The recessionary elements seem to combine with a high level of trade in the currency. All of which is destabilising.

2012



In 2012 the main theme seems to be about establishing fundamental value. The progressed sun conjoins the Euro’s Venus, squares the progressed Mars and squares transiting Saturn throughout the year. Saturn also opposes its natal position. A peg with the dollar and/or something else? Uranus is still square the Euro’s MC but on the descendant at this time– whatever it may be, it is difficult to predict now and involves partner countries.



Chart used:


Euro: Frankfurt, Germany, 1 January 1999, 00.00 hours CET ( Source Book of World Horoscopes: N Campion)






Sterling and the UK : 2008-2012

Sterling, the Bank of England and UK house prices

My original plan was to start my currency forecasts with the dollar. Then I looked at the Bank of England chart and started to work on that. In the end I have done all the analysis for all the currencies before writing up any of them, as, in an interlinked global economy it is impossible to deal with individual countries, without reference to the others.
I am still not fully happy- the sheer volume of data means that my analysis is only scratching the surface and often raises as many questions as it answers.

But one has to start somewhere so here goes:-

Summer 2008
It would be good to believe recent suggestions that the worst of the credit crunch may be over. Perhaps it is, in the form it has taken to date. However it is difficult to see an end to the story for any of the major currencies and Sterling in particular. Challenges to the Bank of England seem set to continue throughout the rest of the year and the spectre of inflation is definitely not going away.

We have seen some respite in last couple of months, but it doesn’t look like it will last. As Saturn moves forward again to its position of September 2007 and February 2008, the concerns of those months will resurface. We will see things starting to unravel again later in June and in July. Although at a global level the impetus from this will come from America and possibly elsewhere, the falling house price situation in the UK itself will create its own pressures at this time.

Sterling and house prices in the UK chart are both partially governed by Saturn, which is opposed by Neptune from now right through the summer- It is interesting to note that the last time Saturn was in these degrees of Virgo in 1979, the Right to Buy council houses Bill was developed. Now Saturn is tuning full circle and the current government are talking of buying up un-saleable developments. How the world turns…

In any case, it is difficult to see anything but the dissolution of the status quo with this aspect; public trust that both houses and the pound are safe bets will be proved illusionary.

What we saw in general terms in 2007 as Neptune opposed Saturn by transit and deflated the US housing bubble – we will be able to see much more starkly in the UK as Neptune opposes, not transiting Saturn but the UK’s own Saturn position.

And it is difficulty to see how this will not lead to further financial and other housing related corporations facing failure, even despite the attempts to raise further finance in the last few months.

The eclipses on 1st and 16th August are likely to trigger further events. The 16th August eclipse corresponds with the Neptune Saturn configuration. We will really know how bad it is going to be by then. Answer- very bad indeed. We will have statistics that show a year of price falls and no potential for the trend to reverse.

Some of the latest forecasts are for 50% house price drops over the coming years. While I think there are enough houseowners who don’t have to sell, so that this level of declines won’t happen in all sectors of the market, it is a sure thing for inner city flats and lower end terraces and also for the top end where there just aren’t enough people with anything like the money required to pay current prices.

Autumn 2008


As a result of the summer’s events, both the BOE chart and the UK chart show the potentials for restrictions on trading in September. There are a number of interpretations of this –just that house sales will dry up completely, that there will be bad retail sales over the summer, public sector discontent and threat of strikes ( although it is in the later years of this period that those become more likely), oil or food shortages and higher interest rates in response to pressures on sterling.

The situation is complicated by the presence of Jupiter in October which might lift the tension temporarily. But it is definitely temporary, the Saturn Uranus opposition which will form in the Autumn will run until 2010.

Winter 2008/9


Basically we have a continuation of the situations arising in Mid 2008, although without critical developments until probably February (when the next eclipses occur). Possible debt issues by the government and a review of the Bank of England remit ( there are some similar aspects at this time to the ones that created the current remit in 1997) may occur in this phase.

Neptune is once again opposing the UK Saturn (a situation that does not end until late 2009), so we cannot expect any improvements in either house prices or sterling during this time.

With respect to Sterling it is worth noting that Neptune was last in this point in the zodiac in 1844, where there was a major debate about banking and the backing of currency. These themes are likely to re-emerge now.

Spring 2009


Things don’t get better either. They seem to get much much worse in March through June 2009. The Bank of England chart is impacted throughout by the Saturn/Uranus opposition, which squares the Banks natal Uranus and then conjoins its Neptune; by a Pluto opposition to Venus (the last square was in 1973), and finally as Jupiter joins Neptune in opposition to the Banks progressed Jupiter and Moon (and probably also the progressed MC).

Once again there is focus on the USA at this time, although there are some indications of European problems too. But in the UK the charts are highlighting the same themes as in 1824/5, 1917 and 1973 and the focus seems to be on the value of sterling and the issue of whether it should be pegged/fixed or set to some standard will be discussed. No doubt the sale of the gold reserves will be criticised again, which tends to suggest that gold will be rising vs. all currencies at this time- thus that there may be a real inflationary environment globally (the separate US and Euro analyses look at this possibility). The possibility of increasingly wild speculation in both hard and soft commodities, cannot be ruled out at this time with the consequent impact on the perceived value of sterling.

Changes to government or Bank of England leadership also look possible then – although will not make a shred of difference to the underlying problems. There are bound to be some interventions in both markets and regulators.

Summer 2009


I can see no real let up of the Spring situation through to September of 2009. The aspects mentioned continue to manifest. Key dates are around 19 August , and again 17-25 September.

If sterling were fixed to another currency it would be devalued in this time. It isn’t, but it can depreciate significantly against other currencies, and if they are also weak, against commodities. We are looking at a situation with parallels to 1925 when attempts to get the currency back to the standard failed. Still it is hard to see Sterling falling much against the dollar at this time as that has its own problems.

House prices are likely to continue their march downwards, as severe recession starts to look more probable.

Winter- Spring 2010

The situation in September through November has more in common with 1980. Potentially there is a turning point in September, but this may be a false dawn as the aspects in place are set to recur in early 2010.

Obviously the value of gold in sterling terms reached a peak in early 1980, so it would not be surprising to see this pattern repeated, although in this case there does not seem to be case for the gold price to start falling again unless there is a huge change in economic policy – which seems unlikely this time round at least at this stage.

Indeed by the spring of 2010 the UK chart has some parallels with 1971/72 as the UK progressed moon is conjoined by transiting Uranus. It is interesting that this period includes decimalisation- one is tempted to predict that some sort of re-denomination of sterling might take place at this point- although of course that might be nothing more than getting rid of some obsolete small coins- it is important to keep the possibilities in perspective.

But the period of 1971-72 is also known for the miners strike as well as anti-nuclear demonstrations. As I have mentioned in the general introductions to this period, the movement of Uranus into Aries is likely to provoke public disruption.

The parallels at this time also resonate with the Northern Ireland problems of the past. So it is also possible that financial problems in Northern Ireland will have given rise to new violence there- although it will probably not be motivated by exactly the same issues as before.

But, it is not just Ireland, the public of the whole UK are liable to be unhappy in this period.


Summer 2010


Indeed in May of 2010 the BOE chart has Jupiter and Uranus transiting Neptune as well as Neptune conjoining the BOE moon. This is either highly inflationary or highly panic driven or both.

The approaching cardinal square involving Pluto, Saturn, Uranus and Jupiter in August seems to suggest that things will really come to a head over this summer. Uranus is in opposition to Uranus in the UK chart – a definite sign of unrest. The movement of Uranus into Aries merely enhances the probability.

Unless there is an external threat, internal strikes and riots are very likely indeed – a mix of the feel of 1973 and 1981 is indicated. A wise government will accept that the strikes are inevitable and take the opportunity to restructure public pensions for example as doing so will hardly make the situation much worse than it already will be and will have longer term economic benefits.

2011


After a shaky spring, the summer of 2011 does not look so bad. There may be less outright trouble politically. Financially things look quieter but not stable. There is still a backdrop of nervousness. Any significant recovery of sterling or other economic improvement is unlikely.

Pluto in transiting square with Uranus continues to challenge the BOE Venus and progressed Mercury all year. The last time that Uranus was in this position was 1927, and it may be useful to consider what was happening with the Bank and the Fed, in terms of interest rate setting, at that time in order to better understand what might happen in this period. There may be policy cooperation to try to beat the problems.

2012


It is not until March 2012, that Pluto finally reaches the UK IC, moving into the part of the chart that relates to land and resources. Although its greatest effects are likely to be in the early years, particularly between 2012 and 2020 when Uranus is also in a part of the chart where it can create the greatest challenge, it will not leave this part of the chart until the 2030s.

This aspect is likely to pick up the baton started by Neptune in opposition to Saturn in 2008 and create a complete re-evaluation of the importance of UK house ownership. The period to 2020 deserves an article of its own. Suffice to say that, at this point, we are not looking at a return to a booming economy, but the situation is not just economic either - rether mor eto do with what being the UK will respresent in the longer term.

It might be tempting to say that with Pluto on the IC and Uranus on the descendant, that the Olympics may be undermined or attacked. But astrology is never that easy. Uranus on the descendant can just as easily mean the country is full of foreigners which of course it will be. Nevertheless, economics aside, it is a tricky square that the country is picking up at this time and bears some watching.

Economics wise, the BOE chart looks much quieter from spring of 2012 onwards. The emphasis seems to move away from the currency and into the political arena.

Chart notes:
As far as I am aware there is no chart for the UK currency, and when this is so, proxy charts must suffice: in this case the UK and the Bank of England charts.

UK: London, 1 January 1801, 00.00 hrs ( Source: Book of World Horoscopes: N Campion)


Bank of England: London 26 July 1694 (old calendar). Time not known- early morning (Source: Bank of England website)




US$ - 2008 TO 2012


Background


To say that the dollar has not had a good time over the last few years would be an understatement.

Of course it was inevitable. Real growth in the US has been miniscule for over a decade. Increased money supply, mainly through credit has been the driver of the so called growth at government and private levels, and indirectly through acquisitions at corporate level. The amazing growth of the stock market indices and, until 2007, house prices merely mirrored this credit expansion. At some point the cross over point was bound to be reached, where, at the margins, (and it is the margins that markets are valued on), credit just couldn’t be serviced any more and the whole thing collapsed. I am impressed that it took so long – or perhaps just amazed at how long an illusion sustained only by belief can last.

It would be amusing to watch the government, financial services companies and central bankers running faster and faster to keep the plates in the air if it wasn’t for the redistribution effects. By re-distribution I don’t mean which financial institutions have stumbled and which have prospered from the cycle- there is far too much emphasis on them – bank runs aside, if one bank and its shareholders lose and another gains the overall economic situation is the same. It is private individuals that are the real concern.

The expansion wasn’t equal and inequality has increased dramatically. Not so noticeable when all boats were rising in the flood of more “money,” as the cycle unwinds, we now have some reduced asset prices ( although as yet the stock market is relatively unaffected) but we also have increased consumable prices without increased wages. The inequalities have been increasing for a couple of decades but the ability to spend more and more future earnings convinced many that they were living the dream. They never were.

In the longer term there is only one way this can go- onto the streets. But in a country that believes so much that it is a land of opportunity for all, it will be a while, possibly a decade or more before denial finally turns to anger on a national scale.

But while it is useful to review what has happened, what we really want to know where things will go from here. Specifically, today, we will look mainly at the dollar and the Fed.

2008

As well as an ongoing (since 2004) aspect to the US$ chart's progressed Mars and probably progressed MC and ASC as well, the last 12 months activity have been governed by the position of Saturn. The eclipse in late August 2007 at around 4 degrees of Virgo, was then reactivated by Saturn in the October, by continuing lunations through to February, and by retrograde Saturn in March. This obviously mirrors the credit crisis well and much of the impact on the dollar in that period can be correlated with the events of that liquidity issue.

Is it finished? Unfortunately not. Saturn is this month working its way back to 4 degrees Virgo after being quietly stationed at 1 degree. This corresponds in June and July with yet another Pluto transit to the progressed Mars configuration.

The difference however, is that as far as the credit crisis is concerned, things have moved on and as Saturn moves away from 4 degrees the current conditions will draw to a close. Now if I were to see the next two months as being the end of all the pressure on the dollar I would conclude that things would indeed settle down post August and the dollar would at least partially recover. However, whilst Saturn does move away by September, the Pluto aspects remain for some time to come.

The conclusion therefore, is that the problem will move away from the pure financial situation and into one or other or both of a general economic problem and possibly a broader derivatives problem. Certainly with what can by now only be described as an oil crisis on our hands- the general economic problem looks a dead cert.

It is interesting that while the US$ chart does not get much respite this summer, the Fed chart gets a bit. There is an ongoing Pluto transit to the sun and opposition to Pluto in that chart but it is not especially activated this summer. The US country chart on the other hand is starting to experience the effect of the eclipse at 24 Leo in mid August. This eclipse, which is conjunct transiting Neptune, is close enough to the US moon, its progressed ascendant and Mercury. That might be a blip if it weren’t for the fact that next spring’s powerful Neptune Jupiter Chiron conjunction is at 26 degrees reactivating the themes of this summer.

So we can expect the dollar to suffer not just against oil but against other currencies again in the next couple of months, for the Fed to do little and for recessionary data to increase. The Fed may tinker a little with rates in September/October, but not significantly. Otherwise they will wait till 2009.

I expect a relatively uneventful November as the transiting configuration between Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus stabilises things. This would make sense- all eyes will be on the election then. I also don’t think, with Neptune conjoining progressed Mercury, that data released in this time is going to be very helpful – either because it is mixed or because it is massaged.
2009

December 2008 is more tricky Pluto is once again challenging dollar values, but until February I don’t expect the holding pattern to change significantly. Maybe it is the 2008 earnings season that opens the can of worms, or potentially an external event occurs which dramatically shifts the position. Whatever the reason, its looks as if there will be significant monetary inflation next spring and summer– April through July. The Neptune/Jupiter transiting configuration picks up the Neptune/Jupiter conjunction in the dollar chart and the opposition in the Fed chart, as well as the elements of the US chart already discussed. Uranus also trines Neptune in the Fed chart and opposes Neptune and squares Mars in the US chart. The latter implies a direct challenge to the sustainability of the American dream – has it all been based on a monetary illusion?

The dollar appears to take another hit as a result of this inflationary effect in July 2009 as Pluto once again transits the progressed configuation . The Fed chart parallels this as Pluto aspects the Fed’s Sun and Pluto again. Looking at these US charts alone we can’t tell whether the dollar will fall against all currencies or whether the currency inflation will be a global event against commodities etc.

Comparing the position of the transiting aspects to the US chart to those from the past, we see that Pluto was square its transiting position in 1973-76. This alone does not bode well, but when we appreciate that Saturn returns to its position in 1978-82 over the period 2008-2012 ,we understand the enormity of the problem. We have the combined effects of the crisis of 1973-4 , together with the inflationary effects of the late 70s and early 80s. owch. Perhaps not quite as bad as the Great Depression, but nearly.

It seems this is not just my view. From the Banking Times, Gill Montia reports (9 June 2008) that “The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the organisation that fosters cooperation between central banks, has warned that the credit crisis could lead world economies into a crash on a scale not seen since the 1930s…. the body points out that the Great Depression of the 1930s was not foreseen and that commentators on the financial turmoil, instigated by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, may not have grasped the level of exposure that lies at its heart”.

With Saturn conjunct the US Neptune and square its Mars in the summer of 2009, there is recession. The Fed chart suggests more liquidity - although it is difficult to see where interest rates can go by this stage – so maybe they are just printing the money?

Since the Saturn Uranus opposition continues into the end of 2009, and Jupiter and Neptune reform their conjunction ( this time at around 24 degrees) in December, it is difficult to see improvements in 2009. Pluto once again transits the same sensitive degrees in the dollar chart and this time it is square Saturn. This is almost as bad as it gets. Indeed the Fed chart also shows a particularly nasty aspect in November December – when it may come under new management! More liquidity/inflation seems to flood the system in December 2009 and January 2010 – though by now presumably no one is spending anything!
2010
The first half of 2010 merely repeats the themes from late 2009, with no significant developments either way. However May through October of 2010 are another matter. The cardinal cross is in place, with Uranus together with on the US country IC, Saturn in opposition and Pluto in square this is real crisis time. As my introduction to this period states, Uranus at this point in the cardinal signs has corresponded with both the repeal of prohibition, the peak of McCathyism and the civil rights movements. It has also corresponded with technological change in computing, communications and aviation. Now exactly how it plays out – positive or negative depends on the other factors at play- in this case with Pluto and Saturn involved we can expect change to be unpleasant, certainly in the short term.


As I said, I am not sure the US is ready for all out civil disruption, but it is likely that there will be pockets of it at this time- strikes, trade restrictions, shortages, and in some cases riots may ensue. Unless, there is some natural disaster which unites the nation – presumably with these planets in place earthquakes can’t be ruled out, or perhaps a hurricane hitting the major cities. Note that these are not a prediction – merely possible manifestations of the transits. Considerably more work would be required to identify what creates the disruption and whether it is internal or external. What is clear is that the US chart, the Fed chart and the dollar chart all pick up this configuration. With Saturn on the US Midheaven military intervention is possible- either to keep order or for clear-up.

By November 2010, the US has a Saturn return – square its sun and the Uranus conjunction with the IC remains. It is opposite the Fed progressed sun and the US sun. The effects, then, last longer then than the summer. This would almost suggest a complete change of government- or at least policy. Maybe finally the US realises it must take its economic medicine if it is to get better. Given what we know to be the current imbalances, perhaps the government has to provide more social support in the way of food shelter and healthcare than it has previously been inclined to do. And/or, horror of horrors, taxes on the richer element of the population may have to rise. With this aspect in 1981/2 deregulation started- often a complete cycle shows the complete or partial failure of a policy and the need to start afresh. A more managed form of capitalism may result.
2011-12
Having said that we aren’t really done with the monetary inflation issues- there is still a period of expansion in Spring 2011 and even on into 2012 although less significant than the previous years. In this period Uranus in its approaching square to Pluto transits the US$ and Fed progressed ascendants and the Fed Sun, but there appears to be a respite in the US country chart. This suggests that measures are in place which are having an economic impact and the country is waiting to see whether they work before taking things to the next level. That seems to be confirmed by the presence of Neptune on the US descendant- suggesting a possible state of inertia. However there is another possibility for this too. The US descendant represents it relationships with its major trading and political partners. With Neptune here there may be deception or weakness arising in these partners.

The Fed seems to play a slightly reduced role in 2012 activity, an with Saturn opposing the US$ progressed Saturn and conjoining its Neptune/Jupiter conjunction, there may be a return to some stability – perhaps a new peg to another currency or standard.

Saturn transits the country’s progressed Saturn in November 2012, the time the next election is due. The incumbent will probably be returned, but certainly the policy in place will not change. We will need to look at 2013-2020 to see whether the rot has been cured or whether a complete change of system is required.


Charts used

US Sibley chart Philadelphia PA. 4 July 1776, 5.10pm ( Source Book of World Horoscopes : N Campion)

Federal reserve chart: Washington DC, 23 Dec 1913, 6.02pm ( Source internet historical infromation)

US$ chart : Coinage Act, NY, 2 April 1792 time unknown ( Source internet historical information)