Sunday, 30 May 2010

Bordering on conflict- May 2010 political risks update

Economics is one thing. Writing about controversial political situations is another. An update on my three key risk areas is in order, but I will be brief and circumspect.

India and Pakistan
My view of Pakistan has been relatively correct. My original prediction was for continued internal problems, but little cross border open dispute.
But I was mistaken about the Indian internal political situation in the first half of 2010. The government is intact. However The Maoists, who apparently do seek to overthrow the Indian government, have stepped up attacks recently. In April, they killed 76 security personnel in Chhattisgarh state. Although they deny yesterdays train disaster, it is clear that what has happened is in line with the Uranus transit etc discussed.
I have nothing to add to that at this stage.

Israel and Iran

Always sensitive, I tread on eggshells when I write about these two. However there is little concrete to say. Iran, after its internal issues last year, has been in the background recently, though there have been pushes for more sanctions during this spring.

The chart for the summer seems relatively quiet though. September looks a bit more unsettled. Still one can’t be sure how wide the orbs might be on this one and Mars could trigger events in late June – 1st July or in early August.

Israel’s immediate issues continue to be with Palestine. But it has been stepping up its capacity to fight externally. "This capability can be used for a war on terror in Gaza, for a war in the face of rockets from Lebanon, for war on the conventional Syrian army, and also for war on a peripheral state like Iran," said a Israel spokesman. It does seem to be itching for action. But even Israel has less in its chart in the early cardinals than in the later mutables so we could see very little action even from them for a few months. Although one can’t totally ignore the dates mentioned above, given that the two have survived much worse transits by keeping to rhetoric rather than guns, I am hopeful that we don’t have problems here yet.

North Korea and S Korea
I considered NK in isolation before and only looked at SK’s economy. I did however spot the potential for political conflict in the SK chart.

‘By April the picture evolves a little: Saturn and Uranus make an opposition across the progressed ASc/Des axis and square the progressed MC. Uranus was square this point when NK separated so its an important point for the nation politically’

But in my NK analysis, I was much clearer, I wrote ‘In April there is a suggestion that there will be a slight show of military force- Jupiter opposes the Sun and Squares progressed Mars, picking up that Pluto and Sun too, and with Saturn once again square the Ascendant axis there is controlled tension within and outside’.

I should have noted the connection between the two remarks!

While I completely believe NK capable of the act, I don’t understand why the existence of a missile that they sell to other countries is evidence of NK direct culpability. Clearly I have no understanding of such subtleties. China hasn’t actually accused them, I find that interesting too.

However my reticence aside, further, under NK, I wrote:
‘The cardinal square over the summer of 2010 picks up first the country’s Saturn and then the Uranus/ascendant. This is a very unstable time- when there could be significant aggression by or against NK. ……………….’ Unfortunately, this still holds.


SK have MC at 29 PI, Prog MC at 29 GE, Prog Asc at 29 VI. Uranus has gone over this point but Jupiter is here and Saturn has yet to cross the point. Pluto opposes its Pluto and will be picked up by the coming June 26 eclipse. Neptune hangs around the SK Uranus, amassing force perhaps?.

I doesn’t really help to be right does it? I hope nothing further develops but it doesn’t look too good.


May 2010 review continued - Asian economies


Now lets move on to Asia – Pacific. We’ll keep the political issues for the next post, but we’ll see whether we need to update our economic forecasts.

Let’s start with the oldie. Japan.

I predicted a change from around February and it does appear to have happened. It was announced that Japan's exports jumped 40 percent in April, rising for a fifth straight month, due to overseas demand for cars and high-tech goods .But retail sales have fallen and Japanese consumers are suffering more than ever. Despite the high level of government debt, however, 95% of government bonds are held domestically making it less vulnerable to the sort of problems Greece encountered.

I suggested that people may be especially restless in May, when Jupiter and Uranus squares the natal moon and there may be political resistance to change y with Saturn square the Moon. There has been dissent and departure by groups within the coalition regarding a US military base and tens of thousands of locals are alleged to have gathered in protest in the last month However I though the people would be much more unsettled due to the economic situation- I suppose it is not the Japanese culture to protest.

What about the summer? Japan has Jupiter at 0 Capricorn, and progressed Mercury at 1 degree. However it gets support from Mercury in Pisces and progressed Neptune in Gemini. It seems that the mixed themes will continue. It doesn’t look like there is too much of a trend here.

The yen chart has progressed Sun and Venus in early Libra and progressed Saturn at 3 Capricorn. So the Saturn/Pluto square has already touched it, and this led to a change of direction for the currency at the end of 2009, yet overall the chart has been positive - it also has prog Uranus at 0 Leo. My expectation the May critical time for currencies was born out by the Euro. Yet, as I suspected despite the anticipated fluctuations, the yen remains stronger than at 1 January vs even the dollar – Uranus was trine the progressed Mars. I don’t expect much trend change in the next few months – though there might be some sudden movements.

The Nikkei has followed the other markets, rising then falling in 2010- it is now 10% below its January level. My predictions were fine for the first 4 months but have gone seriously awry in May. Why? Well I could blame a Uranus square ( Uranus being allegedly about the unexpected), but I don’t subscribe to the view that it can’t be predicted. I am more inclined to blame the fact that I completely failed to mention/notice the square between the natal Saturn and progessed Asc in place from the end of 2009 and Neptune creeping close to a square to them (Of course Neptune is always involved when I make mistakes!). However transiting Saturn will stabilise this in the next 2 months. So I do see some positives in the next months though perhaps not as much as I originally anticipated.

China
Japan was the most difficult of the Asian charts. China is much easier.

The Renminbi has been interesting – with talk of revaluation ( it never got as far as I expected to real revaluation) turning to reverse in a flash after the Euro troubles at right on track for the Uranus square ( yes, you see, Uranus is predictable!). Where is it going now? I still expect change in the rate with Mars/Juputer at 3 Cap right under the cross. That Pluto trine the Renminbi Saturn will be picked up by the prog Moon by the end of June –Surely the dollar/Renminbi can’t resist that? Maybe – the critical degree is 5 not 4.

With the peg in place the currency doesn’t not necessarily follow the country. China has continued its growth so much so that regulation on house prices has been introduced. Elsewhere, the Foxcomm suicides have hit the news but must be put in context of company specifics in a country of 5billion people.
However analysis suggests that the latest generation of migrants are finding the challenges tougher and there is growing anger at the perception that much personal wealth is the fruit of corruption, not hard work. Research suggests Chinese people have faith in their ability to improve their own lives often surpassing respondents in capitalist countries, including the US, but this very optimism can lead to disillusionment. This seems to reflect well the difficulty presented by Neptune square the MC- and the Chinese attempt to shut down media reports internally confirms my original expectations.
Although we have the square across the country’s Uranus at 4 Cancer, the natal Moon and Jupiter in Aquarius may be moderating the effect of the Jupiter/Uranus/ Saturn opposition. As I have said, China is sensitive to Uranus in the early degrees of the cardinal signs so I expect events to accelerate from around the June 26 eclipse onwards. As I say, a few suicides is hardly the stuff of China’s past experience with Uranus, so perhaps there are other issues to come. The apparent moderating influence may turn out to be a catalyst. The trouble is, if China are successful with moderating media coverage, I might never know.

The Shanghai composite after an early positive start to the year, has fallen from 3200 to 2600, mostly in the last few weeks: the regulatory intervention I expected, the trend in May I got wrong again. I am attributing this to Neptune again, square the index’s Mars. However I am still concluding that the market will rise again over the July- August period. Interestingly, this suggests more risk appetite which seems to discount the possibility of generalised financial problems elsewhere

Hong Kong
I have no comments to make about the HK$, other than to say I still suspect changes in the coming few years. Note September’s natal Mercury retrograde for this one

The Hang Seng has fallen from 22k to 19.5k since January, most recently over the last 6 weeks – as the progressed Moon has interacted with Pluto at 4 degrees Capricorn. That moment is gone, but the HS has Mars at 0 Cancer. However , Saturn in early Pisces is supportive but a prog MC at 1 Scorpio is less helpful ( quincunx Uranus and Jupiter). I’ll stick with my forecast of this being a bottom though whether the upturn is now or Autumn, I’m not sure.

India

The country’s industries are booming (compared with the Western ones) But there are problems. Having recovered from a hard year last year, hit by the global recession and last year's poor rains which ravaged farms and hit growth, food price inflation is 16% and they are waiting for this year’s rains. The inflation must be the impact of the Neptune progressed Asc. I suspect they will get the Monsoon now as Saturn goes direct and moves away from its opposition to Neptune and that progressed Asc and its square to the prog. MC.

I am less clear about the impact of Jupiter Uranus square the progressed MC this month. There has, in a way, been a question over the impact of Euro/UK focus derived from the expansion of the last few decades – with the depreciating Euro and sterling challenging the outsourcing industries. But there has been no impact on leadership or government though, despite my expectations. It is difficult to unravel conflicting signs – in this case a square to the Prog MC offset by a trine to the natal one.

I still see little action in the early cardinal degrees. Rather I am not now looking at the recent conjunction with Neptune and the prog Asc. opposed by Saturn and picking up the MCs as representing the start of a new long term cycle focussed on internal consumption rather than exports. There is planned investment in healthcare, infrastructure and skills as well as food guarantees for the poor.

The Sensex
index has fluctuated by about 10% in 2010, with lows in February and May, and highs in early January and early April. It really has just followed the global market trends so far. And overall shows little direction. I originally said that lack of trend would continue over the summer and don’t see reason to change my assessment now.


Australia
I really don’t have any thing to add to my earlier Australia forecast. A number of rate rises have fulfilled the Saturn square Neptune, Neptune trine Neptune configurations. Australians are less optimistic which given the ongoing growth in the economy is presumably what the rate rises were introduced to do.

The Aussie dollar has weakened vs the US$ dollar, but that is again more a reflection of the dollar strength.

Indonesia
After a relatively good 2009, GDP growth is forecast to rise to 5.5 percent in 2010. For the full year, exports are forecast to rise by about 11 percent, based on the forecast increase in world trade and firm prices for commodity exports.

So far Indonesia has been doing ok this year. And the Rupiah has kept up with the dollar, more or less. But I expected the Indonesian economy to be affected by the upcoming squares, with prog Venus and Neptune in early Libra. Still, there is one thing I missed before, the Moon in early Sag suggests that the people still aren’t too affected. We’ll see, I’ll stick with some difficulties in the coming 3-4 months but I could be wrong and the country could continue to shine.

S Korea
With an MC and progressed Asc at 29 of the mutables, Korea has been a bit in the news in the last couple of weeks ( as transiting Uranus did its work) but this is about economics – we’ll do international relations problems elsewhere.

Growth Is expected to be more than originally forecast . Things have been going well economically this year and the Won has not moved significantly vs the dollar ( and I have done little work to merit a forecast of it).

I mentioned engineering advances and it appears that ‘ Korea’s profile as a peaceful nuclear power has risen with the announcement of a deal for its first ever export of a nuclear power plant—to the United Arab Emirates. Since that announcement, Korea has reached an agreement to build a research reactor for Jordan and hopes to win a contract to build a reactor in Turkey as well’

And it also appears that SK is currently in talks with China and Japan about economic free trade area.

I shouldn’t laugh but I wrote ‘Technical problems might surface and apparent breakthroughs turn out to have side effect’. Unfortunately news comes this week, as Uranus and Jupiter transit the MC, of a couple charged for starving their child due to an internet addiction :SK is the world leader digitally and apparently internet addiction is becoming a big problem.

The good old cardinal cross picks up SKs Venus at 2 Aries as well as Pluto at 4 Cancer (and Jupiter at 5). It also activates a square between progressed Uranus ( 1 PI) and Mars (3GE). More news on all fronts should continue.

May 2010 Review continued - The Americas - ex USA



I’ve reviewed the current situation in these countries and actually there is really not that much to say, that I haven’t already dealt with. However, in the interests of completeness I short summary is in order, and it does give me a chance to add a few comments:

Mexico
I recall that I found Mexico a little hard to read when I wrote it 18 mths ago. My issue was how the transit of Pluto to Neptune would play out. I am never sure about outer planet transits to each other without other triggers and this was a bit of a test.

What it seems to have represented is the ongoing drugs violence and attempts to eradicate it. I perhaps did not pay enough attention to the country’s Mars at 0 Leo in quincunx to its Neptune. But, as the drugs issues had only limited relationship to the global economic situation Mexico has actually been doing not too badly this year ( last year it had to recover from global economic shock of 2008 and flu). With many favourable Jupiter transits at the moment growth for the quarter has been reported at over 4%.

The Peso has also performed better than last year. A low vs dollar in May ( knock on effect of Euro shivers) was not as low as February and of course the dollar has risen a lot this year.

Nothing coming up in the next few months suggests much change from the current pattern.

Argentina
How can I be objective? I have Moon conjunct the Argentinean Jupiter and vice versa. Just as well then that I can report they have been having fun this week with their 200 year celebrations.

The Peso has weakened vs the dollar ( from 3.7-3.9)– mainly since mid April when the bond reconstruction was announced ( but equally probably as a result of Euro). However like the Mexican Peso the impact is not great given the dollars gains. It could continue tricky for a month or so, but after that not much change expected here either over the summer (their winter)

The universe decided to remind me of its never abating sense of humour at this point. I realised that, quite unconciously I had popped across the road and bought myself an empanada de carne for lunch!

Venezuela
It is difficult to tell what really happens in Venezuela at grass roots level. The Chavez spin machine tends to obscure both good and bad. However from what I can find the country has been suffering from the effect of last years power outages ( with its progressed Asc conjoining its Uranus), It is also in need of rain ( Saturn has been stationed close to its Neptune). However there is nothing to suggest that the situation will get any worse as, as I said before, the country is relatively unaffected by the July cardinal cross.

The Bolivar, (a currency born with Uranus/Jupiter which is now without orb of opposition to its progressed Saturn) has been suffering a split personality disorder with 2 rates. Chavez has now banned trading in bonds. Neptune continuing to square its progressed Sun Mars suggests continuing erosion (and a tendency to perform worse than the others in this report) but, again, not any affects from the cardinal cross.

Brazil
My failure in 2009, Brazil seems destined to flummox me. Booming at 6.5% growth, it seems not to care that it has Pluto at 0 Aries, Neptune at 2 Capricorn and Uranus at 3 Capricorn. Perhaps I have underestimated the benefits of its Asc at 0 Pisces and Mars at 3 Scorpio which must have been considerably supported by the Pluto in the square.

On this basis we would expect the positives to continue then . The country also has Jupiter and its IC at 0 Gemini (& thus MC at 0 Sag), which will be aspected by sextile and trine by Uranus Jupiter and Saturn.

Still Uranus conjoining Pluto can’t be that great- perhaps the problem is the political backlash from the Turkey Iran deal it has been brokering.

Its all a bit difficult to unpick and frankly I am not sure I get it at all!

My Brazilian Real forecast for 2009 was much better than the country one and continues to be ok for this year. My suggestion of a turning point around April/May was born out by the announcement of interest rate rises on 28th April. A decline from 1.70 to 1.85 vs dollar followed,( until then the Real had recovered nearly all ground lost in Sept/Oct 2008), though once again the European effect cannot be ignored in this direction. The fundamentals still look strong – with the cardinal cross making almost only favourable aspects to the chart.

Canada
It seems like an anomaly to throw Canada in with Latin America, but actually the charts and the evidence suggest that it is trending the same way ( just from a more stable start). Despite losing some ground vs the dollar in May ( along with most other currencies), the Canadian dollar has still strengthened this year and regained ground lost in late 2008. It is still close to parity

The country is expected to show growth of 3x the average of the G7 for the period and both it and its currency look to continue to be ok for the next few months.

BP - A corporate chart analysis


I don’t usually do retrospectives, but I thought a little investigation of this was in order.

We are talking about a company that has its progressed Saturn stationed on its natal IC and close to its Sun. Much is expected and responsibility can’t be shirked with that. However could we have predicted just what this would bring and when?

There are lots of astrological analyses of the BP spill, but I just wanted to look at a chart that I haven’t seen considered. BP was obviously incorporated in England. And the spill took place at a drilling point offshore in the Mexican gulf. The trouble with using the gulf chart is that one only sees it in retrospect. I was wondering whether the company chart could tell the story too. But rather than use the UK chart I though I would relocate the chart to Houston (after all oil and Houston are pretty much interchangeable in the US). The chart is stunning even before applying transits, so I checked: BP US HQ is indeed in Houston.

Here is the chart. We see that Neptune conjoins the MC in the Houston relocated chart. It also squares the Asc. Mercury and Saturn sit on the descendant. Where oil is transformed into money we have a potential problem. BP only bought Amoco in 1998, so transits prior to that weren’t a direct problem. Frankly though its not a good chart and so it proves.


The tri-wheel is set for the leak day. We have progressed Sun trining progressed Mars, both at zero degrees (Leo and Aries) it’s great for oil drilling; we’ll get plenty ….. But the Progressed MC is squaring natal Uranus in these months – we are in for a big surprise. With the South Node on the MC things can only go backwards. The transiting Sun reaches 0 Taurus. Boom. (Chiron is at 0 Pisces too). Pluto is situated on the progressed Ascendant trine Jupiter. Oil is literally gushing out. Uranus sextile the natal Moon, Jupiter quincunxes the progressed MC to make it all much more public. Progressed Moon also highlights the Asc that month opposing Mercury and Saturn. BP becomes Biggest polluter. Oh dear.

So the conclusion is that a chart for BP in Houston would have been enough to predict some difficulties.

A month later, and Jupiter/Uranus sits on the progressed Mars at 0 Aries. Oh, well (no pun intended), once Saturn gets to 0 Libra it should be under control…

Much ado about everything -April May 2010 Euro US update


Once again, it has been a long time between posts. Although I admit to a continued element of procrastination, the main reason has been lack of anything to say.

‘What?’ I hear you explain. Haven’t we had a host of unprecedented events? Volcanic ash, leaking oil, Goldman Sachs legal cases, UK coalitions, a Euro crisis, a flash crash in the US market, Thai protests, the Koreas getting angsty, supersonic jets breaking the speed record, and man creating life. A typical six weeks then, really.

True, it has been busy, but remember; I have been focussing on longer term trends, not the talk of the week. I would need to clone myself 1000 times to achieve such a broad spread across countries together with, for instance, the detail needed to predict a market crash that lasted all of 20 minutes. On the other hand, it could be argued that we’ve got the effects of the cardinal cross over early and it is all plain sailing from here. I am not entirely convinced of this, but when I read of the fact that the US considers the BP spill to be its worst ever environmental disaster, I have to admit that this does fit the symbolism sufficiently.

I’m going to have a quick look at this disaster in my next post but here, nevertheless, with Uranus arriving in Aries, I do think it is time for an update on the cardinal cross of this summer. And I am starting with the USA, UK and Europe

What amazed me as I read through my earlier forecasts in parallel with another look at the relevant charts, was how little I felt I wanted to change.

In the UK, the expectation of public disruption over this summer is perfectly in line with the proposed government budget cuts. There is still a focus on the Bank of England chart with its Mars at 0 Libra, so Sterling must still be vulnerable. Despite the flash crashes and market uncertainty I still see no clear direction for the stock market over the summer ( though the FTSE 100 looks more problematic than the wider market with progressed Venus Jupiter and Neptune at 1 degree Capricorn).

So what about the poor unloved Euro and its countries? Well, Greece’s debt problems certainly confirmed my suspicions by resurging like killer zombies in a horror movie. I was certainly very wrong in April 2008 when I thought that dollar problems would beta Euro ones, even if my 2009 reassessment overturned that. The Euro has now fallen from 1.50 dollars at the end of the year to around 1.23. As I said in the relevant posts the Euro chart angles are right on the cardinal cross. These issues aren’t going away for a few months. I expect the lunar eclipse around 26 June (at 4 degrees with Pluto) and the period of July and August to continue to be disruptive.

Looking at the individual countries , I again can’t see a reason to change my expectations.


France is on schedule and in character, threatening to leave EU and with its usual strikes but really its been relatively stable throughout– The country has an MC at 1 Aries and Sun at 29 Virgo. But it also has a conjunction between Jupiter and Neptune around 0 Scorpio opposite Saturn. In the end, it will calm down again.

Germany, however, has Saturn at 2 Capricorn and Mars at 0 Libra. Unlike France’s demonstrations, German dissent is likely to be less visible but more powerful. Perhaps the aspect is already operating in the enforced austerity of the Mediterranean countries, but I still wonder about its internal effects.

As I expected, Spain despite its construction industry problems and unemployment,has beeen benefiting from its South American connection. And only in May did it get its first bit of excitement, voting for austerity measures (just), and having to help some banks. With only Pluto at 1 Libra affected by the cross, it is still somehow culturally able to deal with obstacles. Perhaps the key is having is Pluto at the same degree as the German and Bank of England Mars’. Ouch, yes, but not for Spain, which is blithely continuing with the help of its Neptune/Uranus conjunction and progressed Mars at 0 Sag.

Italy, with its MC at 29 Virgo has also gone down the austerity route this week with public sector wage freezes and retirement date increases- amid the obligatory complaints. Although the
government seems to be surviving ok. Sadly with Neptune at 1 Aries, on its IC one never really knows what is happening in Italy. I still have my biggest doubts about it, especially in the longer term.

Ireland, who bit the bullet with cuts before anyone, however, has some of the hardest aspects of all of them to come this summer. Uranus at 0 Cancer, Moon at 1 Cap, and an MC at 4 Libra. There are a lot of supporting trines etc, though, including its Jupiter at 0 Aquarius, so expect survival but not after protests. None of these countries need a summer of hot evenings with people loitering on the streets, trust me.!!

So going back to the Euro, what do I think about its survival? That depends not just on Europe but on the US.

So I wrote 2 years ago about this time “ I am not sure the US is ready for all out civil disruption, but it is likely that there will be pockets of it at this time- strikes, trade restrictions, shortages, and in some cases riots may ensue. Unless, there is some natural disaster which unites the nation – presumably with these planets in place earthquakes can’t be ruled out, or perhaps a hurricane hitting the major cities. Note that these are not a prediction – merely possible manifestations of the transits. Considerably more work would be required to identify what creates the disruption and whether it is internal or external. ……..With Saturn on the US Midheaven military intervention is possible- either to keep order or for clear-up”

Turns out we have an oil spill disaster to unite the US against BP and we certainly have the need for clear up (the military announced it was joining it on 28th April, but there are numerous other agencies involved too). Let’s hope that, however bad the spill is, it is the end of the transits to the US chart. But that can’t be guaranteed. Indeed, arguably, the culprit of this episode isn’t the cardinal cross but Neptune opposing the progressed MC. Either way, the US (Sibly) MC is at 1 Libra ( busy degree, huh?!), and the US Venus and Jupiter are at 3 degree and 5 of Cancer respectively. Things may only be getting started. The Federal reserve has its MC at 0 Aries and its sun at 1 Cancer opposite its Pluto at 0 Capricorn. Clearly Pluto has already been busy activating this, however one can’t help think that there are more debt issues out there to be dealt with in the coming few months.

Looking at the dollar chart, the same degrees contain the progressed Mars and angles. Although ‘printing’ with the helpful Jupiter/Neptune conjunction around 0 Scorpio has deferred much of the problems, its ability to assist is weakening and this summer might be the last gasp of bailing before the US too has to take proper austerity medicine.

So, on balance, my original view that this little crisis was not confined to one currency does not change. The Euro remains challenged but with only its angles hit and no planets; the talk of its demise may be a lot of hot volcanic ash cloud. The US$ appears to have reached the end of its monetary elastic too, despite the spin. The Fed has had one too many challenges .Only global cooperation is going to solve this one. I think the Euro is more vulnerable to speculators, due to the situation of individual countries, but that the US is more vulnerable to a problem with its total debt burden.

It is also worth revisiting the US stock market charts. I expected lots of trade but less clear direction and with the Dow at Feb levels that seems about right. The Nasdaq I expected equivalent uncertainty and I noted that in February the progressed Moon would oppose the progressed MC/Saturn conjunction. Sure enough, this led to a low. The subsequent May lows are not quite as bad and although the cardinal cross will transit the Nasdaq Venus and progressed Mars, there is a supporting trine from Uranus to another of those natal Jupiter/Neptune conjunctions – this time at 2-3 Sag. On balance I can’t change my view that despite some fluctuations and the continued international debt issues that index is not going to collapse.

Its always been my view that the impact on the stock markets would not be as depressive as many thought, and almost all the individual market charts have supported this. The fact that I have been right till now, doesn’t alter the fact that I keep doubting the astrology and continue to be very nervous about the whole financial edifice.

Finally, a brief round up of other European periphery countries:
Iceland
of course continues to be an international source of entertainment. With its Saturn return at 29 Virgo, and the cardinal cross on its Neptune and Asc at 1-2 Libra, and its MC at 3 Cancer, it isn’t finished yet. Maybe those who are waiting for Katla to follow Eyjafjallajökull won’t be disappointed……Those coming eclipses maybe just what it needs to get going.

All I said about Switzerland was that it would upset others and sure enough it has been the focus of complaints about its intervention in the Swiss Franc/Euro market. I hope it upset a lot of traders.

Russia
is interesting. With Neptune, Uranus and the Moon all around 26 degrees, it is almost done with its big transits. With Pluto trine its Pluto it is on a different track for change. But Pluto does square its Saturn at 4 Aries, so while the summer’s cross only touches it, the eclipse in June is more serious, possibly indicating more violence like that of this week, but less economic events.

Sunday, 7 March 2010

Review of 2009: all markets


It’s review time.


A little later than planned, and definitely a lot shorter. Rather than the calendar year we will look at Feb 2009 – Feb 2010. There are a lot of forecasts to look at but I really will try to keep this as short as I can.

Successes
General
Swine flu! Well ok I didn’t actually name it, but in my general discussion of Jupiter Neptune Chiron I identified new diseases/genetic modifications as a possible outcome. Furthermore in Feb 2009 I said “anything that exists in an amorphous/en-mass state can be associated with Jupiter and Neptune together are also characteristic of the combination such as the spread of ….. viruses etc ..”

I also suggested Cancer cures and increasing software virus problems. Both of which were significant in news items during the Jupiter Neptune Chiron conjunction

There were financial successes too:
My initial April 2008 forecast of currency crises in May 2009 was on the surface of it incorrect. But I did revise it in Jan/Feb 2009. In fact this wasn’t really a failure as we now see that there was indeed a currency crisis but it affected all the currencies! As a result we saw huge increases in assets with extreme, perhaps speculative, flows into emerging stock markets.

Unfortunately other than the Shanghai composite and India’s Sensex, I didn’t review any of the emerging stock markets, but I did say in February 2009. ‘there is a currency crisis at the moment : all of them need to fall, the question on everyone’s lips is “against what?” ….. soft commodities and other assets really need to be taken into account.’

I went on to claim Russia would be the most influenced by the Jupiter Neptune conjunction. And at the end of 2009 it was sitting at the top of the list of stock markets. Perhaps not the effect I expected but it can't be argued that my forecast was technically right. In any case Medvedev has in the last months admitted that Russia suffered worse than other countries from the crisis due to the failure of the authorities to change its economic model over the last years.

I also produced a forecast for Argentina which was surprisingly positive given its history and sure enough its stock-market was close to the top of the 2009 list too.

Also conforming the commodities vs. currency expectation; the oil price doubled again during the period, as did Sugar, Copper, Zinc and Aluminium. Indeed there are few commodities that did not increase and many that haven’t gained over the year showed peaks in the May to July period as expected.

Looking at the year in broader terms, my forecast in April 2008 for ever increasing dollars in 2009 proved to be correct. As did my forecast for Sterling.

I forecast ongoing problems for UK property which based on the indices alone did not pan out. But the reality of sales volumes and experience in all but some pockets of the country actually supports that forecast as well.

In many of the major stockmarkets ( US/UK/Japan) I correctly forecast March as a month with significant trading. Though I was less sure about direction. Having said that, I did not forecast major drops anywhere and suggested that the Pluto Saturn square from November would surprisingly not damage the Dow too much. Again all on the ball.

I also predicted that the Dow would lose some old friends. GM and Citigroup did indeed depart though by hook or by crook ( but mainly by government bailout) they survived the bankruptcy I anticipated. An then I suggested that Jan/Feb 2010 would see some big deal making in the UK market. Cadbury and Prudential anyone?

I successfully identified the fact that France wouldn’t be as affected by the recession as the UK, and that Germany would use it as a transformation opportunity. I also spotted that in 2009 Spain would not have much conflict and be less affected in some way despite its construction recession – which proved the case, with their banking requiring less help during the year than others despite 20% unemployment and, as I predicted, some bad statistics in the summer.

Furthermore I predicted that China ‘ did not look too bad’ economically and that it would ‘appear to maintain strength despite the rest of the world’. So why is everyone so amazed it had a good year?! I even spotted it might look at it interest rate in the latter part of the year ( though I was 2 months out on when)

My ‘lots of trade’ on the Shanghai composite March to May corresponded with a rise again. I was one month out on my expected falls (July to Sept rather than the actual which was August to Oct). Although I expected more upside in Jan 2010, I suspect I was right in saying it is now unsubstantiated. I also spotted in my China analysis that the people might be a little deceived by early 2010- the fact their apparent property bubble seems to support.

I predicted the overall continued strength of the Yen despite volatility – and even the fact that it would have a weak patch in the time around March. I even mentioned the conflict between speculative buying of the Yen and Japan country fundamentals.

As well as March’s big moves, I spotted that the Nikkei would suffer from the retrograde in July. that August would see buying and that Oct/Nov would show volatility with a downward bias. It is extraordinary isn’t it?!

I predicted that Australia and Canada would not be so badly affected, including benefits from commodity prices and then less monetary freedom in Australia in second half of year ( which naturally corresponded with their interest rate rises) and that around October Canada’s reputation as being safe would be in focus. In fact CIBC World Markets chief economist Avery Shenfeld wrote. Canadians can count their blessings, from a sounder financial system, a federal government that can afford to run deficits after years of fiscal rectitude, and a household sector that, while facing sharply increased bankruptcies, has been less beaten up on housing and job prospects,"

As mentioned already, in Latin America I found the Argentinean outlook relatively benign too. As so it proved, even though there are now internal disputes about the use of Treasury reserves- which I was one month out on with my ‘surprising steps in terms of reorganising the economic position..the peso I made no overall predictions for direction vs dollar. The Peso weakened vs. US$ until September, which I noted as more activity, but then strengthened until Jan 2010 which I determined as broadly positive for the currency. Still I suspect much closer to the reality than others' forecasts.

In Mexico I made no really dramatic predictions for the Peso and indeed it tracked the dollar most of the year.


Politically I was on fire, I forecast :
“Italian leadership problems” for the period Berlusconi was the subject of sex scandals, and ‘excitement’ in the country in February 2010 when the have had the corporate fraud issues.

More ‘excitement…not currency related’ in Mexico in April ( though admittedly this was bit of an understatement!). I need to work on my excitement analysis - narrow it down a little more. But no one can deny the timing was right.

Also i suggetsed there may be issues of hostility internally for Mexico later in the year and indeed there have been problems with the enforcement of the anti drug cartel matters.

I anticipated the sudden change of government in Iceland and short lived Union dissent in France in March

I also forsaw Iran's difficulties – May into summer when they had election opposition issues. Iran I seem to have nailed completely.

Less so North Korea. Nevertheles I correctly forsaw aggression in March – when they threatened missiles for April and did a major nuclear test in May.

I also said there would be no significant Indian-Pakistan issues – that Pakistan’s main conflicts would be internal and that India would be focussed on economic matters. This was particularly noteworthy given the issues at the time of my forecast would have suggested the opposite. But I was right.

I spotted that there would be more interal action by the government in Russia from February. Medvedev has taken a harder line on internal issues than Putin.

Furthemore I expected a possible resurgence of violence in Northern Ireland which has indeed experienced a number of incidents in the year after at least 5 years of relative calm.

On the other hand I correctly thought that (Southern) Ireland people were disposed to be remarkably tolerant about the economic problems during the year in terms of their response.


I Predicted Bank of England leadership changes in March, In this case, to be fair, we didn’t get a change, rather a very high profile month for Mr King- (the astrology timing was spot on – just my interpretation of how it would play out needed refining)

Similarly the issues I expected regarding the head of the US Fed in November were correct. Re-appointment of Bernanke was a very close run thing.

I said there would likley be aationalisations in Venezuela around November. Which happened on schedule in its banking sector but have also affected other industries such as retail.

Finally, my prediction of stuff going on politically in Germany in September turned out to be correct but not much of a prediction (if I had checked the election time in advance I would have realised what that meant)

Another dumb but not inaccurate prediction was for mid Feb 2010 events in Canada. So that would be the Winter Olympics… doh. I need to actually read up on these countries coming plans first….. that’s right, I don’t generally bother, I really am forecasting based on charts alone.

Failures
I didn’t expect 100% success, and there were one or two areas where I am disappointed:

Probably the biggest was Japan’s stock market. It did ok (in fact it was up 50% from March 2009) and better for many in their local currencies but of the main markets it was the worst performer in local currency terms for the whole year.

I also though that there would be more likelihood of the Renminbi floating around May. But despite the expected pressure from US, this didn’t happen.

I also forecast a significant movement in the Bolivar during the first Jupiter Neptune conjunction. This did not happen. However I also noted that, after not much happening Bolivar wise from August to December, these themes would repeat at the end of the year and sure enough then the pressure got too much and the Bolivar devalued. Right forecast, right aspect, but second transit rather than first .

But I am not happy with almost all of my Brazil forecast. My forecast was for a quite negative year, whereas Brazil has apparently recovered well so far from the financial crisis. The Real has continued to climb versus the dollar since march 2009. Certainly there don’t appear to have been major leadership issues in November other than objections to the Iranian leader’s visit for example. Protests mentioned in the forecast occurred but were mild and localised. The only corresponding events are Lula’s rhetoric in September re the developed countries etc and his speech re the oil deposits and a “new Independence Day. Lula’s latest oil development plans have met some opposition but not as much as my prediction anticipated. The only part that seems to correspond is the stimulus in December together with an expectation that February 2010 would bring a liquidity hit, and the Real has fallen in the month vs. the dollar. It might be necessary for me to go back to the drawing board on this chart.

Some of my economic forecasts on re-reading seem a bit vague: Switzerland and Italy for example. In fact in both cases the aspects clearly just weren’t strong enough to indicate trends so my predictions have come across as muddy. In fact not too much happened economically in either case relative to the rest of the world.

Politically, I thought there might be more Tibet issues, but there weren’t. Though there was violence in Ürümqi, the North west of China in the early summer.

I expected more issues around North Korea leadership, especially in August, which didn’t happen.

And finally I forecast more relating to conflict in Israel in May- though they did set fire to Palestinian crops on 4th of that Month.

Seeking perfection
If I am depressed it is because I didn’t get everything right! And because I seem to be able to identify political issues more concretely than market direction, which is a shame when I am an economist and finance person with no background whatsoever in politics! But, really, looking at the list I did spectacularly well and even when I failed to interpret the aspects perfectly the astrology got the timing spot on. And, for many of these countryies it was my first forecast and I was working with an experimental chart. On balance -Nice. I've given myself a gold medal ;-)

Monday, 22 February 2010

Greece: 2010-2012


Now this is more fun, eh? Looking at somewhere where the action is now.

Let’s look first at what constitutes the Greek chart. With the noon chart (caveat emptor – not a timed chart) we have a Sun, Mercury conjunction on the MC square another conjunction between Saturn and Jupiter. The Moon is square a conjunction of Neptune and Uranus and opposes Pluto and Chiron. That is interesting – an outer planet collection that touches the people (described by the moon ) but not the administration ( described by the Sun), we’ll have to see how this plays out.

It is also interesting because the Neptune and Uranus conjunction falls right across the IC of the Euro chart and the Moon on its Ascendant. It is not difficult to see how that is playing out…. (Someone really should never have let them join with such a chart!)

The chart is completed by an opposition between Venus and Mars. Which would be a minor consideration but Venus is the chart ruler.

During the decade which has led up to these problems progressed Mars was working its way through an opposition with the country’s 12th house Pluto

It is also interesting to note that in 2004, the Greek olympics year the progressed Sun was 180 degrees from the natal Sun ( and in the noon chart so was the MC). Of course all this was square the Jupiter Saturn conjunction again- multiplying the normal Greek issues. No wonder the debts just kept getting bigger.

There are currently a number of active progressions : Progressed Sun is trine Pluto, Progressed Saturn in trine with natal Mars, Progressed Mars conjoining the Moon and the progressed Ascendant activating the Sun/Saturn/ Jupiter square. And finally, progressed Jupiter is about to change signs in March for only the second time since the formation date. That much action, all for one little country….

Incidentally a key debt/mega wealth signifier is Jupiter /Pluto. Greece did not have this at the date of foundation, but by progression it now has a sextile between these planets.

2010
Now, in February 2010 is not a surprise to see Pluto transiting the Uranus/Neptune conjunction and Saturn smack on the Moon and progressed Mars, because of the relationship between this configuration and the Euro. We have a Euro problem and the source is the Greek nation’s nature in regard to money and government. Pluto and Saturn are excellent at bringing chickens home to roost – and with the Greek configuration they have been rather wayward hens. Whispers of the problem have been around since Pluto and Saturn started their square in November. But it has all come to a head during the Jupiter sextile to the configuration too. Proof that Jupiter isn’t always as charming an influence as we might wish – sometimes it just magnifies the problem.

So, Saturn is retrograde and will be popping back into Virgo soon, presumably that will be the end of the matter? Sadly of course, it is only the beginning….

March, however will likely see things calm down a little as the square separates, but with Neptune quincunx the progressed Sun and Uranus transiting the country’s Pluto the underlying problem isn’t going away.

Sometime this summer, I’ll say June as that is when Uranus and Jupiter enter Aries but it could be May or July, the situation will flare up again. Let’s look at the aspects : Saturn conjoins the Greek Moon and progressed Mars, Pluto transits its Neptune and Uranus and Uranus and Jupiter conjoin the Pluto. Full house. Shall I elaborate? No, I think we have the picture. Then again, maybe we don’t- perhaps this comes to a head because of other Euro countries, rather than Greece itself.


And just in case we think that it will pass quickly – the arrival of the progressed Moon at zero degrees of Virgo square the progressed Jupiter in September suggests otherwise.

The last three months of the year are characterised by the Uranus Jupiter conjunction retrograding over Pluto and trine the progressed Sun. Although not a direct challenge to government, given the circumstances we can imagine some major changes.

2011
As the themes of those last few months continue into 2011, Saturn moves on to square both the progressed and natal Mercury positions, restricting communications, exchange and activity in general.

By the time Jupiter returns to the early degrees of the cardinal signs most things are likely to have happened, never but there is still likely to be a lot of speculative trading involved at this time. This is supported by Neptune moving into a square with the progressed Jupiter. This is highly inflationary.

By April Jupiter reaches the Jupiter/ Saturn conjunction and squares the Greek Sun, we have more issues with government but generally this is probably a positive move for economic growth. Expect some optimism.

In May the progressed Moon reaches Mars and trine progressed Saturn, which is actually a relatively positive prospect – suggesting working towards solutions. In July Jupiter crosses the Descendent and reaches progressed Saturn the following months, suggesting a shift in the mood.

Uranus continues its dance over Pluto throughout this time but it is important to note that though this might be a major event in most cases, in the case of Greece now it is less significant that what has already occurred. Nevertheless it is a generally unsettling influence.

And Saturn opposes the Saturn Jupiter conjunction and squares the Sun in October, so the optimism and economic improvements may be short lived. In November the two themes conflict as Saturn squares the Sun and Jupiter retrogrades over the ascendant.

So throughout the winter we have attempts to grow and expand offset with restrictions and difficulties.

2012
January to March continue with more or less the same aspects in place. Tricky for the leadership but with attempts to improve the overall situation. Unfortunately the presence of Uranus in square to the Greek natal Uranus/Neptune conjunction still will cause unexpected speculations and trades that will not settle down yet, and with the Moon and progressed Mars involved even actual disruption of activity.

Nevertheless April and May aren’t to bad at all with Neptune sextling the aforementioned Neptune conjunction and diluting some of Uranus’s instability, Pluto trining progressed Mars and Saturn and allowing restructuring and work towards a better economic future and Jupiter making some lovely aspects to Mercury. Much headway can be made with these during this couple of months.

Although Saturn is still opposing Saturn and Jupiter and square the Sun, in June, there is a feeling of positive change engendered by Jupiter’s transit over the progressed Jupiter and subsequent aspects to progressed Mars. Whilst not everything is resolved there is a much improved situation.

But Uranus is still opposing the progressed Mars and squaring Uranus even in December, there is still a lot of background dissention.

Chart
Formalisation of independence
1 Jan 1822 (OS) noon local time Athens Green
Source: N Campion, Book of World Horoscopes

Indonesia: 2010-2012


I can’t claim that I am not interested in Indonesia because I’ve never visited, as I have. But there is a vast difference between interacting with a country for business and lying on a beach. I don’t have a feel for it at all. I doubt this will be one of my best analysis, but nothing ventured, nothing gained.

It is tempting to use a chart for Indonesia that predated this one, But the only one I can find represents the union of the island under Dutch rule such as the nationalisation of the Dutch East India Company on 1 Jan 1800 and this seems to predate any feeling of unity, so I will go with the independence chart.

Indonesia has the 1945 conjunction of Jupiter Neptune and Chiron, so writing about it before last year would have been a trifle wiser. Too late, but perhaps I will be able to refine by views of the conjunction as interpreting it seems to be my weak point.

Other notable factors in the chart are a very close conjunction between Mars and Uranus, a permanently unstable feature, and perhaps a reason I should use the later confirmation of independence chart. The country also has a Saturn Venus conjunction on the MC, and a Mercury Moon square. A bit all over the place and conflicting really. The progressed chart sees a long term sextile between Jupiter and Pluto which perfected in 2008, suggesting growing power – in this case with the Neptune conjunction the services sector is more important than engineering etc and part of the configuration probably represents faith rather than economic power or perhaps just a representation of the demographics as this is a rapidly growing population. Interestingly 2008 was the year Indonesia withdrew from OPEC as it was no longer a new exporter of oil.

It should also be noted that the Rupiah ( decreed by law on 3 October 1951) has its MC, Sun, and Saturn around the same degrees of Libra and opposite Jupiter. As the country goes so does the currency.

2010
Transit wise Pluto has recently been squaring the Neptune conjunction in the chart and Saturn has been transiting it since November. However these are subtle long term influences and will probably need the impact of Uranus and Jupiter in the coming year to crystallise into anything event wise.

Although we had a Neptune conjunction of the same nature in the sky in 2009, it made no aspects to the equivalent configuration in the Indonesian chart. Instead it opposed the country’s Sun – which of course meant corruption allegations against the president. However a simultaneous trine to the progressed Sun was protective in the main. Uranus has been trine the deepening Saturn Mars conjunction but will move on now and the issues of this conjunction will be on a back burner for a few more years.

Indonesia has not been immune to the global economic downturn, with exports affected but with such a low level of per capita income and unemployed, the marginal impact on the country as a whole is hardly like that for nations with richer populations. Furthermore despite attempts by the government to increase expenditure to cushion the economic slowdown, the budget deficit is only around 2.0% of GDP, New measures to expedite spending and stimulate the economy are being implemented (1) but it remains to be seen whether that will be enough to compensate for global shifts.

So where is the country heading?

Pluto will continue to square Neptune throughout the year but, by May, Saturn will conjoin the Indonesian Jupiter and Uranus and Jupiter will oppose it. The cardinal cross will pull in the Indonesian progressed Venus through July and August. Given what we know already about the significance of the conjunction we can expect major imbalances within the economy. Output and trade is likely to suffer- probably the impact of no longer being an oil exporter has been underestimated and there is likely to be a significant impact on the commodities business of the country too. Furthermore the effect on the Rupiah is likely to be significant, showing major fluctuations and ultimately in 2010 depreciating.

The effect of the cardinal cross continues right the way through to September. Then Jupiter and Uranus have moved away and are trining the Indonesian Saturn again taking the pressure off a little. However Saturn now reaches the progressed Jupiter and sextiles Pluto, definitely the impact of the oil balance will be felt now.

2011
In January 2011 Saturn will trine the Mars and Uranus conjunction, this is a relatively stabilising influence, but with Jupiter and Uranus opposing Jupiter again there is a lot of instability and imbalance to compensate for.

The currency might actually rise this year – or it might be subject to significant speculation with the Jupiter Uranus opposition – either way it looks like losing contact with fundamental value. Perhaps it may be replaced completely.

The two configurations continue throughout at least the first six months of the year . Jupiter moves forward and across the descendant in May, putting the focus further on external trade issues. From then on the picture is dominated by Saturn, first conjoining the progressed Jupiter in August then , moving on to square the MC, and Saturn in October and finally crossing the ascendant and squaring the progressed Saturn and Mars in November and December. All this Saturn suggests either a very depressed business environment and or a restrictive political situation. Saturn was last in this position in 1982,

2012
Pluto and Uranus continue their transit of the Neptune conjunction in the background during the year. For Indonesia this seems to be about long term trends in the economy.

Saturn conjoins the progressed Sun in January 2012, putting pressure on the government and the as it retrogrades a square to progressed Mars and Saturn in May suggests some sort of police or military clampdown. Again the themes continue throughout the year.


Chart
Declaration/proclamation of independence
17 Aug 1945 10 am local time Jakarta Indonesia-
Source: N Campion Book of World horoscopes
1)Asia Monitor Nov 2009

South Korea: 2010-2012


South Korea is a fascinating development tale and a tribute to the importance of education. Unfortunately it is another country with which I feel little affinity but which I feel must be included in the key economies for completeness, especially as it is currently chair of the G20.

Another Cancer ascendant nation, SK has a pretty powerful Jupiter Pluto conjunction in Cancer, despite its 12th house placement (of which more soon) trining its sun- strong leaders are a feature of the nation ( North and South) and the potential for huge success in a chosen endeavour stands out in the chart. The country has a Mars close to the MC ( which really shows in the people- in my experience they like to work) and a Uranus Moon opposite Saturn- SK even the women are seriously tough cookies in my experience. With its strong manufacturing base it differs from many countries we have considered, and its technology focus leads the world

After a rather tricky Mars Uranus progressed square in 2005-8, at present there are not too many close progressed aspects other than an approaching Sun/Sun square which may prove interesting. There is one long standing progression though – Jupiter to the country’s ascendant which is within orb all decade and will perfect in 2013.

However when it comes to transits the matter is different. Pluto is opposing the country’s Pluto Jupiter conjunction at present, and Saturn is square. This means that some of the industrial success is being undermined by world events. GDP growth fell from over 5% in 2007 to approx zero (est) in 2009. Although SK suffered in 2008-2009 from the world recession it still grew, this aspect suggests it should be careful about over production and focus on transformation and improvement until Pluto moves on in a couple of years.

And as mentioned elsewhere Pluto can be a very dark force. However contrast the SK Pluto transit of the 6th house of work and environment with that of Turkey’s 7th. Korea needs to focus on its internal matters, Turkey cannot help but be affected by the external ones.

2010
Neptune which was aspecting the Moon Saturn opposition is now moving on to conjoin Uranus, which though unsettling is less so than the previous few years might have suggested.

Uranus is transiting the SK Mars which could mean more advances in engineering, although it might also cause some dissent.

Positive aspects from Jupiter to the SK Sun and Jupiter in March will bring good news though .

By April the picture evolves a little: Saturn and Uranus make an opposition across the progressed ASc/Des axis and square the progressed MC. Uranus was square this point when NK separated so its an important point for the nation politically. But this is also good old hard economic stuff, where it is important to balance the old with the new else your economic model comes apart later. Saturn on the IC starts a new cycle while Uranus is completely overthrowing the old. Technical problems might surface and apparent breakthroughs turn out to have side effects. The combination together with Pluto is rather ripe for industrial disasters or environmental scandals.

There is a lot going on here – and I want to keep this short, but with the progressed Moon crossing Pluto and Jupiter in May we have a very important time for the Korean industrial powerhouse from April through the summer’s cardinal cross.

Jupiter joins Uranus in June on the MC – this is all really dramatic stuff – perhaps it is partly due to SK holding the G20 chair and the need for extra key meetings on global economic matters during 2010. Suddenly it seems SK is in the limelight during this cardinal cross for even as Uranus and Jupiter move from the MC they will conjoin the SK Venus and the effect will continue through into September when Saturn squares the Jupiter Pluto conjunction.

A brief holiday in October when the Moon and Sun form a progressed trine doesn’t last as Saturn is squaring that moon and Uranus and Jupiter oppose Mars. I don’t know what the SK inclination towards strikes is but in other nations this would be a likely outcome of this aspect.

The year ends with Saturn squaring the progressed Jupiter /Ascendant conjunction, definitely a time of challenge to growth.

2011
We still have the background unsettling but low key Neptune transiting Uranus during this year but this is not the main worry.

The Saturn aspect continues into the first part of 2011, with Saturn stationed square the Ascendant – this is indeed hard re-evaluation and consolidation and restructuring time.

Pluto also continues to oppose the Pluto Jupiter conjunction, requiring continuing re-evaluation of the impact of SK’s growth. It’s double whammy time too with Jupiter squaring the conjunction in February. A look at whether too much investment has been made too quickly may be in order. So also might take-overs and big debt issues. Although SK is hardly the world leader in debt problems !!!

Really the situation is more or less fixed for the first five months of the year.

Some positive aspects from Jupiter to the SK Uranus, the Pluto conjunction and then to the Sun lighten up the summer a little but Uranus now moves into square the Jupiter Pluto conjunction. This really is a tough time for the industrial powerhouse of SK. September sees the last transit of Pluto but there is still more Uranus to come.

That key period of October 2011 sees Saturn move on from its square too, perhaps the conditions are lifting a bit?

But I’m still not convinced that the country will really see a complete lifting of the overhanging problems until 2012 at least. Trouble is- when you start off with such a powerful conjunction and get all the benefits of the upside, when you get the downsides they are equally powerful.

2012
Does look better though. Uranus transiting Venus might bring some pleasant surprises and the continuing Jupiter sextile Jupiter suggests a pick up in demand and optimism. Saturn trine Uranus balances the new with the old rather than bringing them into conflict and at least for the first three months of the year economy and government look strong; Pluto and Jupiter sextile the Sun in March- that can only be a good thing for the country’s growth.

Positive Jupiter aspects continue, to the Ascendant, to progressed Venus. Mercury and the Sun throughout the whole of the last part of the year. However we still have the Uranus square Pluto Jupiter to content with throughout the year and is will throw some unexpected events into the mix – perhaps in the form of competition from elsewhere or again technical faults which cause problems.

Still it looks as if the worst is over by the end of 2012 – well at least for a couple of years until the Pluto Uranus square hits the ascendant anyway.


Chart
Start of Independence Movement
1 March 1919 14.00 local time Seoul SK
Source : Book of World Horoscopes. N Campion.
Generally people use the 15 August 1948 chart for SK. But after reflection I could see no reason
For not using this earlier one. This is the chart that best indicates Korean national feeling. The chart for NK describes the separation of part of the nation- rather like the Indian and Pakistan situation.
Note on art: No it doesn't completely break the rules, this design is Korean.

Turkey 2010-2012


Briefly the Turkish chart is characterised by Pluto rising square Mars. The Moon, the chart ruler is weak in the 12th house at 29 degrees 59mins . Uranus conjoins the MC in Pisces. Saturn and Mercury are conjunct in Libra, while Venus and Jupiter are close in Scorpio and square Neptune. With relatively few hard aspects it could be assumed it is a simple chart but the mix of planets and signs make it a curious and complex chart, with no one theme predominating.

Interestingly, although the proclamation is said to have occurred at 20.30 Attaturk was formally elected at 20.45- when the Moon had reached Cancer, and perhaps this makes more sense. The chart Moon is very transient.

In any case, either way, Pluto has recently ( 1-2 years ago) opposed the Turkish moon . Neptune has also been activating the chart – squaring the Jupiter configuration, whilst Uranus trined it. Saturn is in the 4th house having stationed close the IC a year ago. Economically Turkey’s rapid growth from 2002-2007 slowed during this period and the Lira completed its restructuring on 1 Jan 2009. The Lira has fallen since its redenomination in 2005, the Neptune square not being conducive to stability, but the Lira has stabilised a little of late, strengthening vs. the dollar in 2009. The Sun progressed into Aquarius in 2007 indicative of some of the issues around secularism that occurred at this time. They have been interesting times. What next?

Assuming the correct time for the chart, we see that the progressed MC is squaring the natal Uranus throughout this period. Changes will happen both in Turkey and with its partners that will radically change the way the country relates in the future.

2010
The current Pluto Saturn square picks up the progressed Saturn, Sun and Venus – but on balance relatively favourably. Harder aspects to the ascendant and Mars lie in the wings for later. Neptune is opposing the progressed Moon but the aspect is over and the Moon moves on. Uranus comes to the end of its quincunx to Saturn and Mercury. Things are getting quieter for a while.

However Jupiter transits the country’s MC in March, which might throw up some excitement. Its trine to the Turkish Venus and Jupiter in April looks very positive.

In May the retrograde Saturn squares the Moon again, some issues from last October will be problematic. Uranus and Jupiter together also start to square the Moon, expect some divisive events and a not wholly happy populace. 1988, when Uranus and Saturn opposed the Moon was more or less the start of Turkey’s hyperinflation ( though Uranus itself was responsible only for the shift rather than the actual inflation). The issues continue through the effect of the cardinal cross in June to September. I would imagine this to take the form of both political and economic disruption – though it is quite possible that this will reflect external events rather than be caused directly by Turkish policy.

In October and November, Saturn will conjoin the country’s Mars, suggesting a clampdown of some sort on activity, further problems are suggested by the subsequent Square to Pluto and the Ascendant. The economic position is ok at this point though with Uranus and Jupiter trining Jupiter.

2011
Uranus and Jupiter again square the Moon in early 2011- suggesting that any respite is short lived and that summer 2010 problems resurface them. Jupiter’s subsequent opposition to Mars only makes disagreements more out in the open. However Neptune by now has reached a trine with the moon making the mood more diluted – perhaps issues will just peter out. Although with Jupiter opposing the Saturn Mercury conjunction in May we might get some changes in policy/law as a result.

More important is the approach of Pluto to the Ascendant axis during these months. Pluto represents underground change, and it is crossing the Descendant square Mars, there is a risk that either Turkey will be subject to terrorism or serious power struggles. When Pluto squared this point in 1974 Turkey moved into Cyprus. Or, more likely since Pluto is on the Descendant, the country will be pulled into international issues and power games especially since Pluto is also sextile progressed Venus, suggesting diplomacy. Another possibility is earthquakes in the region.

June through to September looks more positive with Uranus sextiling the progressed Sun, only exaggerated by a Jupiter square in June. Changes will be welcome at this time and much can be accomplished. Nevertheless the Pluto transit doesn’t go away – it is hard to be completely relaxed. Jupiter sextiles the Ascendant in July and opposes the natal Sun, normally this would be a good thing but in this case it probably emphasises the involvement in power struggles.

The progressed Moon crosses the IC at this time – and the progressed Ascendant is also slowly transiting the same point. As in other charts we have looked at this indicates a key turning point especially for a country that already has Uranus on its MC. 2011 looks like the crucial year for Turkey to enhance its relations and thus its trade.

The themes continue throughout October and November, and the Saturn return in November December ends a 29 year cycle in the country’s history, one that started with the Saturn Pluto conjunction at that time. The next cycle looks to have a less challenging economic theme. Nevertheless all Saturn cycle ends force the evaluation of the whole cycle and there may be much introspection and questions asked of the government in these winter months.

2012

We still see Pluto on the Descendant as 2012 begins, looking more and more like the impact of the wider world on Turkey. A heavy transit especially when accompanied by that Saturn return. I do feel the country will be under some fairly restrictive influences at this time one way or the other. It is unlikely to be great for the economy – although the chart is not showing massive restructuring of industries or hard recession, rather more an ominous shadow of difficulties.

The time around April 2012 looks better – with Jupiter opposite Venus and the chart’s Scorpio
conjunction as well as sextile the MC and Uranus there is some optimism and opportunity but it is still tempered by that ominous Pluto.

To add to the problem, over the Spring and summer Uranus reaches its cardinal square with Pluto – close to the Ascendant axis and opposite Mars. This is really tricky. Perhaps the fact that the MC is not involved saves the country from break up but having such a major global square slap bang on an angle can’t be brushed under the carpet. That and retrograde Saturn repeating its return to the 1923 position suggests a very difficult political period- even though economically it is more mixed. It is possible that Turkey is suffering damage to its main industries such as tourism etc at this time as a result of economic hardships elsewhere. Either way the government will be under pressure.

Furthermore the fact that Pluto moving on from the ascendant will soon oppose natal Pluto suggests little respite for some time yet.

Chart
Creation of Republic
29 October 1923, Ankara, Turkey, 20.30 local time
Source: Book of World Horoscopes. N Campion

Saudi Arabia: 2010-2012


While I am sure that to do a good forecast I need to understand a county well, I am not sure the same in true for just an interpretation of its natal chart. Sometimes it seems the less I know about a country, the more the image I have seems to resonate with its chart. Perhaps it is the fault of the chart ascendant that just shows the simple view presented to the world.

The Saudi chart is no exception. My view of Saudi Arabia is perfectly described by the Capricorn Ascendant with Saturn rising, and the Sun conjoining Jupiter also in Capricorn.

Unsurprisingly this chart does not show some of the drama that other countries have experienced over the last couple of years. It has no planets at 20-28 of Aquarius, or other fixed signs, activated by Neptune, only progressed Venus at 20-26 of the mutables activated by Uranus, and nothing at 0 of the cardinals activated by Pluto. Whilst Saturn and Jupiter has activated points in the last few years this is small fry compared to many countries.
So let’s just focus on whether this situation will change in the next 3 years.

2010
Uranus is transiting progressed Venus and the Moon, so we can expect issues surrounding women in the country to be highlighted over the next year. Jupiter emphasises this in the last three months of the year. But Neptune makes no aspects in 2010 ( the closest is an approaching trine to Neptune not a cause for any disruption). Pluto is trining Mars, but this is just a powerful aspect. There are no hard squares, although Saturn does activate this in a tricky manner over the summer.

Saturn spends the year transiting the early degrees of Libra and makes few aspects. Jupiter makes favourable aspects to the chart as it moves through Pisces and little at all, except as mentioned above, when it joins Uranus in the cardinal cross.

So, compared to other countries , 2010 looks relatively calm economically.

2011
Again little notable action from the three outer planets, but this year Saturn and Jupiter do shake things a little.

April 2011 sees Jupiter square the Saudi Arabian ascendant, it then moves on to square Saturn then the Sun Jupiter conjunction. All of this will go to make the country seem more extreme in its nature than usual. The same goes for the economy – all matters will be exaggerated.

Jupiter, however moves on fast, by July it will conjoin progressed Mars – making the country more assertive than usual and increasing all economic activity. At this point it is aided by the ongoing Pluto trine, a lot of power can be harnessed by the country at this time.

Jupiter then goes on to square natal Mars – suggesting even more. But before we forget- Jupiter transits a chart every 12 years and makes hard aspects every 3, its not so much of a big deal without the outer planets and by this stage the Pluto influence is waning.

By October though, Saturn will square the Ascendant, then Saturn. This is more significant. Remember once again it is picking up October 2011 which seems to be a critical point in all the currency charts. . Even Saudi wealth would be affected by a worldwide redenomination.
Furthermore Uranus is transiting the progressed Moon at this time – futher indications of a critical point

By November the square reaches the Sun/Jupiter conjunction – and the country rulers. Restriction even here. Jupiter retrograde is of no assistance. Indeed its transit of the IC further suggests a tunring point. The transit also quincunxes the Moon and progressed Venus- nothing escapes completely.

.
2012
There is some evidence of things settling down by January 2012. Saturn trines Neptune, a weakening but not difficult aspect by itself. Jupiter makes its final pass to the IC and progressed Mars, more assertion but not particularly constructive

Saturn retrogrades backwards from February to September, keeping a feeling of restriction in place. Of course the country is no stranger to Saturnian influences, it is just that this time they may come from external influences rather than being imposed internally.

In November Saturn crosses the Saudi Arabian MC and opposes the country’s progressed Mars. The end of a cycle which started with the Saturn Pluto conjunction in 1982-3. Saturn and pLuto both pick up the progressed Ascendant by quincunx at the year end as Jupiter transits, Definitely a change of direction is indicated.


Chart
Capture of City from Turks.
15 Jan 1902 Riyadh Saudi Arabia. Rectified to approx 6.30am local time
Source Book of World Horoscopes. N Campion ( given time 6.45 am)

South Africa : 2010-12



Time flies, doesn’t it? But until the last couple of weeks we haven’t missed much economically have we?

I was, of course going to complete my G20 countries months ago, but try as I might I couldn’t raise any enthusiasm for a group of countries I had never visited. So economic output at Fortuna2020 has equalled zero. However, Greece has kindly re-ignited my interest. Of course it wasn’t on the list, but I’ve bribed myself: if I finish my G20 then I can look at Greece. Oooooh the thrill of it!

So here we are in South Africa. At least with the World Cup it is topical. You’d think I would be more thrilled wouldn’t you? However my appreciation for the World Cup is severely diluted every four years until that moment of ecstasy when England are eliminated. Then I am gripped by it. Of course England is unlikely to be submitting a team this year as the media has decreed that philandering is not acceptable in its footballers. And, since the phrase faithful footballer is clearly an oxymoron ..well…

Ooops, I digressed, didn’t I? Can you tell I am not enthused by South Africa? Oh well let’s get it over with shall we? I’ll try to make these next few posts short and sweet.

The chart I am using for South Africa makes it a Gemini nation – the dual face of Gemini fits well with the history of apartide. The contrast between the beauty of the Cape and the crime of Jo’berg is also indicated by this aspect. There are other interesting factors in the chart, notably a Mars Neptune conjunction, but we won’t analyse these we’ll just look at the future.

The Rand chart is rather mixed with a Jupiter Saturn conjunction quincunx Uranus. Interesting to see a currency that is about global matters and does not really tap into the personal planets at all. It has benefited from Neptune transiting its Sun in 2009; but some gains have been speculative.

South Africa has so far remained relatively unaffected by the world economic problems (
though of course relatively is a big qualification in this case), with its currency strengthening significantly in 2009, - although making the country less competitive, it is probably welcome after some years of deppreciation. However the political situation has been more questionable with the hints of past scandals associated with Zuma, president since May 2009 . Neptune spent the last year transiting the country’s moon : a situation where no-one knows the truth. The unsettled effect has been amplified by a Uranus sextile to the country’s Uranus which is pulling in a square to natal Pluto.

As 2010 begins these aspects are still in play. They are accompanied by a Saturn transit to the SA Jupiter, suggesting some restriction in business, but the trine to the progressed ascendant confirms that the country is coping better than others. However Pluto is square Jupiter suggesting that there are a number of problems simmering beneath the surface.

Transiting Jupiter is about to pass over the country’s ascendant and into its first house in the next few weeks. Of course the fact that the country must be more open to the world and find eyes focused on it is par for the course for a world cup host. Jupiter also squares the SA sun and MC, definitely a time when the activities of the country, good and bad, will be thrown open to all eyes.

Jupiter continues its journey through the first house in March and April shifting from hard aspects to the natal sun and MC to one to the progressed sun and MC. Jupiter then opposes the country’s progressed Mars and sextiles its progressed Uranus in April – unfortunately this progressed aspect probably reflects the crime and violence that occurs in the country and Jupiter is likely to draw attention to this in the run up to the Cup. Hopefully there is sufficient prominence given to the country’s Aids problem too.

From a trade point of view, though, the aspect is probably going to be a good thing – much more development and economic activity.

There are some problems surrounding the rand as Saturn transits square its Mars, but this is offset by Jupiter; probably too much demand upsetting the hard currency balance and not a longer term issue. The issue of trade in the currency continues throughout the period to August, but it is a technical rather than a value one.

However, Saturn is square the SA Pluto through the months of May to July. Add to this the upcoming mundane Saturn Pluto square and it is difficult to see how there won’t be some unpleasant events associated with this Cup. Security will need to be good else the sort of event that marred the Africa cup in Angola could be repeated.

June itself is characterised by the first conjunction of Jupiter and Uranus (sextile the SA mercury) at 0 degrees of Aries.. This in itself is a dramatic aspect. Perfect for a sporting event to break with tradition and suggesting progressive steps, but nevertheless a combination that can be volatile- on the pitch it could give some fantastic football, off the pitch I am less confident of the positives. Still there is little in the SA chart at 1 degree of the cardinal signs so perhaps too much disruption can be avoided. Economically, and despite the impending restrictions of Saturn, its all good stuff.

The themes continue into July. But now the impact of the Saturn and Pluto become stronger- a bit of a hangover effect probably. However, compared to some countries this key aspect is not too damaging to the SA chart. the progressed Moon forms a sextile and Saturn again trines Mercury as it conjoins Jupiter. All in all, a dampening of the exuberance but not too difficult, which continues throughout the SA winter months until October.

Furthermore Neptune trines Pluto, an easy aspect economically, though it has its downsides in other areas.

By October Saturn trines the country’s Sun and conjoins its progressed Neptune. This would normally be a sign of stability, politically and economically. However it is accompanied by the return of Jupiter and Uranus to a square to Pluto and sextile to Uranus through to January 2011. Much of the past problems come to the surface again so that Saturn trine is probably going to be harder on the economy and on the president than would otherwise be the case.

November and December sees Neptune transiting the SA moon again – yet more evidence of a return to murky situations.

Saturn on the Rand progressed MC opposite its progressed Sun and natal Venus, suggests the attraction of the currency wanes at this time.

The period is also dominated by Pluto’s square to the SA Jupiter. This is a debt aspect, and
since SA have been rather cautious about debt, we could probably surmise that this represents the impact of events elsewhere in the global economy.


2011
As mentioned the themes of October onwards continue into the early part of 2011. Now, however, Saturn reaches progressed Jupiter and then squares Neptune. This will inevitably subdue optimism and clamp down on deception. It is less good for the currency too.
However it is offset by Jupiter sextiling the progressed Ascendant and opposes the country’s Jupiter, and expansive, even over-expansive, aspect.

There might also be another spike in rand trades at this time- the currency’s Mars is again squared by the Jupiter Uranus conjunction. With Pluto trine its own Pluto, it is facing questions over fundamental value – perhaps in line with other commodity related currencies.


Uranus returns to its sextile with SA Mercury in March, and Jupiter opposes progressed Mercury . Since these both highlight communications and information, we can expect information to come to light at this time which may change the political picture. It also suggests a continuing high level of trading activity.

April sees Jupiter sextile Neptune Mars conjunction and trines the progressed Sun and Mars
May sees Jupiter square the SA Uranus and sextile the Moon as well as Neptune squaring its Mercury and sextiling Saturn. A bit of a mixed bunch but not economically problematic in the longer term. However it will highlight some endemic problems within SA. The transist are accompanied by the progressed Moon Trine the progressed MC- not a bad aspect but in this case focusing on the people more than usual and perhaps further drawing attention to ongoing issues.

The Saturn conjunction with progressed Mercury in June will likely result in some repression of information and or trade.

July and August see Jupiter conjoining the country’s Saturn, good for both the government and the economy, a fact further confirmed by the sextile between the progressed Sun and Moon and a progressed Moon trining the Mars/Neptune conjunction and Uranus sextiling Mercury again. However, I do have reservations about the significance of the Neptune Mars conjunction in the SA chart and although all this seems mild stuff, the Moon highlighting a potentially questionable natal aspect is not without its downsides.

The Rand’s progressed Moon crosses its ascendant at this time – throwing the currency into strong focus globally. Remember elsewhere there are hints of a big change in worldwide currency values in October 2011 – these aspects, then, might represent the SA impact of the external trends.

In September/ October Saturn opposes the Rand progressed Sun, and the progressed Mc opposes its Venus, reinforcing the likelihood of currency re-evaluations.

Pluto squares the SA Jupiter in October, repeating the themes from early 2011. As mentioned earlier this likely represents the impact of events elsewhere in the global economy. Pluto also trines progressed Saturn and quincunxes the progressed Ascendant as the year ends, this together with a Saturn trine to Pluto suggests some dark and difficult influences politically and economically.

2012
Jupiter retrograde stations on SA’s Saturn in early 2012, and the progressed Moon sextiles the progressed Uranus/Mars conjunction, It is a probably time for change.

The rand chart shows a brief upswing of activity -with Uranus sextling the Moon and progressed Jupiter again and Jupiter squaring them.

Tricky aspects to the SA chart involving transiting Pluto Jupiter and Neptune in February suggest that the external impact of late 2011 is causing adjustment in all areas of the economy. In March Neptune sextile Saturn, Jupiter conjoins progressed Saturn and Uranus opposes Jupiter. Another mixed bag but the balance is an upset to the status quo.

April and May are much easier, with a nice sextile from the moon to SA’s Uranus, easing change, and a Jupiter trine to the Sun, and progressed MC, then to Neptune/mars and then Uranus/mars then conjoining Mercury. Everything happens quickly and by June a lot of changes will have been implemented without, it seems too much force being required. However June itself might see difficulties for the government.

There are underlying changes suggested to the Rand as Pluto sextile’s its Mercury. Perhaps talk of changing denominations or the use of the hard currency. Saturn also opposes Venus – issues of fundamental value are discussed. Jupiter crosses the Descendant in July– probably representing what is happening politically.

For July is another month dominated by Jupiter and Uranus transits. Jupiter consolidates its position conjoining the SA Sun , IC and progressed Ascendant. Uranus sextiles these points at the same time. A new government? Certainly a key turning point in the country’s history, now or perhaps at the end of the year when the aspect repeats. In any case Jupiter’s aspects in September suggests things are taking a while to settle. Neptune square Mercury suggests misinformation

August sees Saturn opposing Venus but trining Pluto, transformation in key sectors such as mining, Uranus opposing Jupiter in November accompanied by Saturn opposing Saturn and the continuing Jupiter transit suggests the end of 2012 is not the end of the situation.

The square between Saturn and the progressed Jupiter/natal Moon in the rand chart suggests more currency restrictions too.


Chart
Union of South African states. 31 May 1910, Midnight local time, Pretoria, South Africa
Source Book of Word Horoscopes. N Campion