I was not sure whether it was worth spending too much time on the Hang Seng index. Hong Kong is not a typical economy and banking and property stocks account for over 50% of the market capitalisation of the index. HSBC accounts for 15% even now, after substantial falls in the banking sector worldwide. Furthermore there is a tendency for the Asian indices to correlate over longer periods, so there is a question over whether this will diverge significantly from the Shanghai composite.
Nevertheless on balance I decided it was worth a look. However we should keep in mind what we are really tracking when we study this index.
From a high of nearly 32000 last October, the HSI has fallen to around 22,000 now. It is not difficult to see in an economic sense why that should have happened. In an astrological sense we see that Saturn stationed on the index’s Uranus last October – December and indeed its Mercury is positioned at 4 degrees Virgo the degree of the key eclipse last summer which defined the financial crisis. Uranus, having transited the IC in December 2007, also opposed the chart’s Sun in March, another key point in the cycle. Finally Pluto has been opposing the index’s Mars and sextiling its Saturn and progressed MC all year. A challenging year for anything or anyone.
The current situation does not show much improvement. Uranus is retrograding now and will transit the Sun again in September and again in early 2009, Pluto will return to its opposition with Mars in November and Saturn has not finished its damage yet it will transit progressed Uranus, Pluto and the progressed Sun before the year is out.
What about the upcoming eclipses? It would be nice to say that the chart is not affected. And as we are just 4 days away (as I write this on 28th July) it is unlikely that much damage can happen. But the eclipse on 1st August is on the chart’s Sun. It is hopefully safe to say that that has already manifested itself in the decline in the index and specifically in the main bank components; however it is not exactly an uplifting configuration. The 16th August eclipse is square the chart’s Jupiter which is less clear- this rather dramatic aspect may explain the recent positive reversal since mid July. The overall expectation though is for no major change in trend direction for the next few months.
The good news is that Jupiter will positively aspect Saturn and Uranus by November which suggests that there will be sufficient positive elements of news to create some recovery by then. Indeed there may be a turning point 12 months on from the downturn last October, as Jupiter crosses the progressed Ascendant. However it should be born in mind that Saturn will be on the MC at this time – supported it may be but that is a heavy aspect and not likely to make the index attractive. Caution is advised when Jupiter moves away in December when the full force of Uranus shocks and Saturn fears across the MC/IC axis, may manifest. Having said that Neptune in square with the chart’s Jupiter might put a positive spin on things albeit without much foundation.
One other positive influence is the trine relationship between the MC and progressed Ascendant, which keeps the view of the index positive despite the challenges.
In early 2009 the Saturn Uranus opposition across the chart’s progressed Sun continues to hold sway. This suggests we are waiting for further developments at this time. Saturn is actually at its station so very powerful. Pluto is still in sextile to Saturn and the progressed MC, suggesting restructuring will be taking place. The retrograde movement of Saturn assisted by the square o the progressed Moon suggests more of the same for a few months until May.
The Jupiter Neptune/Chiron configuration is square the charts Jupiter but sextile its Moon and trine its Venus. Uranus will be sextile Jupiter although square Venus. Added to which the progressed Sun is moving towards a trine with the chart’s natal Jupiter, a sign of optimism and growth. This on balance, although it still suggests substantial speculation, is likely to be positive for the value of the index. Looks like whatever is happening then is favourable for the HSI.
This despite Saturn returning to the progressed Sun in August the balance of the transits seems to be positive for the year. Even in August the influence of Saturn is offset by the progressed Moon reactivating the effects of May. And by September the influence of Saturn is beginning to wane which further supports the positive influences. So expect more of the same into early 2010.
Although Saturn is making some hard aspects to the chart’s natal Saturn and progressed Moon, Pluto is mitigating these. Now Pluto is rarely entirely positive but it does always have a positive final outcome. In this case it’s transforming the tradability of the index and with Jupiter in sextile in January this is generally in a positive way.
The spring of 2010 seems to continue to be about re-evaluation and although not particularly thrilling is not especially negative either. Much of the 2009 themes get repeated but probably to a lesser degree. However Saturn will square the chart’s Mars at this time as it sets up its mundane square with Pluto. That is more serious and may lead to some difficult trading conditions beginning, however this is only a taster as the rest of the spring and early summer is unlikely to radically change matters.
By July and August however the HSI Mars is being attached from all sides by the Cardinal Square. However the progressed Mars is being positively aspected by all but Pluto. Volatility looks to be the name of the game with no real direction. There is a bit of support from the chart’s Saturn (HK organisation is generally favourable and offsets many ills) but this isn’t enough/relevant enough to save many of the index’s components from being hit by general economic conditions.
On balance looks like the index will hold it together – after a few weeks of upset. And as Saturn moves on it sextiles the HIS Sun and also its progressed Venus. This Venus is approaching a conjunction with the Sun which will occur within 12 months on so. That is an extremely favourable factor and with Saturn in sextile there is opportunity for value and investing in good fundamentals for the future at this time.
The themes of 2009 are also still relevant here in the last months of 2010 as Jupiter and Uranus, untrammelled by Saturn activate the chart’s Jupiter and Venus while Neptune creates speculative fever again. It seems as if the value investing turns very quickly back to speculation in the last months of 2010.
Although the progressed Sun has by now passed its trine to Jupiter, progressed Venus is still completing its conjunction with the Sun. The overall background is positive. The tail end of the cardinal cross continues to have some impact but probably not much. Conditions seem relatively benign except for one thing.
Neptune reaches a conjunction with the HIS Saturn by, March/April. This is almost certain to be a depressing influence. There is some offset as Jupiter trines the chart’s Uranus and Pluto but not enough to save it from inertia at this time. May is a little more positive (Jupiter conjoins the Moon and trines the progressed Sun) but the Neptune influence extends to a quincunx with progressed Mars- and it is difficult to find anything that really mitigates that until June. Then the progressed Moon transits the progressed Ascendant and we have a change of mood. More people are enthusiastic about the market. Next Jupiter is square the Sun and progressed Venus which should be enough to increase values while it stays around this degree – i.e. to the end of the year. December may even be exciting with Uranus trine progressed Mars and square Mars, which may be enough to offset the weakening effects of Neptune on Saturn and Mars.
Pluto is quincunx the Sun now, though that is not a strong influence and probably just suggests underlying realignments. Jupiter is still relatively beneficially placed although Neptune continues to weaken all the structures and detach the index from reality. In fact in May 2012 the HSI has its 12 year Jupiter return, supporting the progressed Sun and leading to likely expansion and optimism.
The themes continue, with Neptune in conjunction with progressed Saturn for the rest of the year and with Jupiter moving forward to again enhance the impact of the Sun and Venus mid year and then provide momentum through its trine with Uranus and Pluto later on.
August is particularly key as Jupiter crosses the Descendant marking a turning point for the index. Although it must be said that with Saturn approaching square with the Sun/Venus configuration by December it is less clear which way the index is poised to go after 2012.