Wednesday, 30 July 2008

Hang Seng -2008-2012



Hong Kong - why bother?
I was not sure whether it was worth spending too much time on the Hang Seng index. Hong Kong is not a typical economy and banking and property stocks account for over 50% of the market capitalisation of the index. HSBC accounts for 15% even now, after substantial falls in the banking sector worldwide. Furthermore there is a tendency for the Asian indices to correlate over longer periods, so there is a question over whether this will diverge significantly from the Shanghai composite.

Nevertheless on balance I decided it was worth a look. However we should keep in mind what we are really tracking when we study this index.

From a high of nearly 32000 last October, the HSI has fallen to around 22,000 now. It is not difficult to see in an economic sense why that should have happened. In an astrological sense we see that Saturn stationed on the index’s Uranus last October – December and indeed its Mercury is positioned at 4 degrees Virgo the degree of the key eclipse last summer which defined the financial crisis. Uranus, having transited the IC in December 2007, also opposed the chart’s Sun in March, another key point in the cycle. Finally Pluto has been opposing the index’s Mars and sextiling its Saturn and progressed MC all year. A challenging year for anything or anyone.

The current situation does not show much improvement. Uranus is retrograding now and will transit the Sun again in September and again in early 2009, Pluto will return to its opposition with Mars in November and Saturn has not finished its damage yet it will transit progressed Uranus, Pluto and the progressed Sun before the year is out.

What about the upcoming eclipses? It would be nice to say that the chart is not affected. And as we are just 4 days away (as I write this on 28th July) it is unlikely that much damage can happen. But the eclipse on 1st August is on the chart’s Sun. It is hopefully safe to say that that has already manifested itself in the decline in the index and specifically in the main bank components; however it is not exactly an uplifting configuration. The 16th August eclipse is square the chart’s Jupiter which is less clear- this rather dramatic aspect may explain the recent positive reversal since mid July. The overall expectation though is for no major change in trend direction for the next few months.

The good news is that Jupiter will positively aspect Saturn and Uranus by November which suggests that there will be sufficient positive elements of news to create some recovery by then. Indeed there may be a turning point 12 months on from the downturn last October, as Jupiter crosses the progressed Ascendant. However it should be born in mind that Saturn will be on the MC at this time – supported it may be but that is a heavy aspect and not likely to make the index attractive. Caution is advised when Jupiter moves away in December when the full force of Uranus shocks and Saturn fears across the MC/IC axis, may manifest. Having said that Neptune in square with the chart’s Jupiter might put a positive spin on things albeit without much foundation.

One other positive influence is the trine relationship between the MC and progressed Ascendant, which keeps the view of the index positive despite the challenges.

2009
In early 2009 the Saturn Uranus opposition across the chart’s progressed Sun continues to hold sway. This suggests we are waiting for further developments at this time. Saturn is actually at its station so very powerful. Pluto is still in sextile to Saturn and the progressed MC, suggesting restructuring will be taking place. The retrograde movement of Saturn assisted by the square o the progressed Moon suggests more of the same for a few months until May.

The Jupiter Neptune/Chiron configuration is square the charts Jupiter but sextile its Moon and trine its Venus. Uranus will be sextile Jupiter although square Venus. Added to which the progressed Sun is moving towards a trine with the chart’s natal Jupiter, a sign of optimism and growth. This on balance, although it still suggests substantial speculation, is likely to be positive for the value of the index. Looks like whatever is happening then is favourable for the HSI.

This despite Saturn returning to the progressed Sun in August the balance of the transits seems to be positive for the year. Even in August the influence of Saturn is offset by the progressed Moon reactivating the effects of May. And by September the influence of Saturn is beginning to wane which further supports the positive influences. So expect more of the same into early 2010.


2010

Although Saturn is making some hard aspects to the chart’s natal Saturn and progressed Moon, Pluto is mitigating these. Now Pluto is rarely entirely positive but it does always have a positive final outcome. In this case it’s transforming the tradability of the index and with Jupiter in sextile in January this is generally in a positive way.

The spring of 2010 seems to continue to be about re-evaluation and although not particularly thrilling is not especially negative either. Much of the 2009 themes get repeated but probably to a lesser degree. However Saturn will square the chart’s Mars at this time as it sets up its mundane square with Pluto. That is more serious and may lead to some difficult trading conditions beginning, however this is only a taster as the rest of the spring and early summer is unlikely to radically change matters.

By July and August however the HSI Mars is being attached from all sides by the Cardinal Square. However the progressed Mars is being positively aspected by all but Pluto. Volatility looks to be the name of the game with no real direction. There is a bit of support from the chart’s Saturn (HK organisation is generally favourable and offsets many ills) but this isn’t enough/relevant enough to save many of the index’s components from being hit by general economic conditions.

On balance looks like the index will hold it together – after a few weeks of upset. And as Saturn moves on it sextiles the HIS Sun and also its progressed Venus. This Venus is approaching a conjunction with the Sun which will occur within 12 months on so. That is an extremely favourable factor and with Saturn in sextile there is opportunity for value and investing in good fundamentals for the future at this time.

The themes of 2009 are also still relevant here in the last months of 2010 as Jupiter and Uranus, untrammelled by Saturn activate the chart’s Jupiter and Venus while Neptune creates speculative fever again. It seems as if the value investing turns very quickly back to speculation in the last months of 2010.


2011
Although the progressed Sun has by now passed its trine to Jupiter, progressed Venus is still completing its conjunction with the Sun. The overall background is positive. The tail end of the cardinal cross continues to have some impact but probably not much. Conditions seem relatively benign except for one thing.

Neptune reaches a conjunction with the HIS Saturn by, March/April. This is almost certain to be a depressing influence. There is some offset as Jupiter trines the chart’s Uranus and Pluto but not enough to save it from inertia at this time. May is a little more positive (Jupiter conjoins the Moon and trines the progressed Sun) but the Neptune influence extends to a quincunx with progressed Mars- and it is difficult to find anything that really mitigates that until June. Then the progressed Moon transits the progressed Ascendant and we have a change of mood. More people are enthusiastic about the market. Next Jupiter is square the Sun and progressed Venus which should be enough to increase values while it stays around this degree – i.e. to the end of the year. December may even be exciting with Uranus trine progressed Mars and square Mars, which may be enough to offset the weakening effects of Neptune on Saturn and Mars.

2012
Pluto is quincunx the Sun now, though that is not a strong influence and probably just suggests underlying realignments. Jupiter is still relatively beneficially placed although Neptune continues to weaken all the structures and detach the index from reality. In fact in May 2012 the HSI has its 12 year Jupiter return, supporting the progressed Sun and leading to likely expansion and optimism.

The themes continue, with Neptune in conjunction with progressed Saturn for the rest of the year and with Jupiter moving forward to again enhance the impact of the Sun and Venus mid year and then provide momentum through its trine with Uranus and Pluto later on.

August is particularly key as Jupiter crosses the Descendant marking a turning point for the index. Although it must be said that with Saturn approaching square with the Sun/Venus configuration by December it is less clear which way the index is poised to go after 2012.



Chart:

Hang Seng Index: Hong Kong, Based date 31 July 1964, 16.00 local time. Sources: wikipedia plus stock exchange site for trading hours



Shanghai Composite : 2008-2012



Never too late?
It really feels a bit late to be writing a post on the Asian markets. Maybe, I should have written this last October, when I first looked at them. I see from my files that that was 26 October 2007! Still, that assumes I am only in business to predict when bubbles will burst and that is not so. I am here to predict all changes and even the times when nothing happens at all. All information is equally good.

Having said that, it is worth peek at what astrological factors correlated with the huge increase in the Shanghai composite and its subsequent fall before looking to the future.

In the period 2001-5 things were depressed in the Chinese market. Progressed Venus and progressed Saturn were in conjunction the whole time – this reached its maximum in 2005 when a Saturn transit opposed the degree.

However things were changing in the background, the progressed Sun was also in conjunction with Uranus at the time, showing a tendency for a rapid swing about. And in 2004 Mars turned direct in the chart and in 2006 Mercury did the same; indications of a big change in the level of trading.

During 2006-7 the progressed Sun was in conjunction with progressed Neptune – a sure sign of things losing touch with reality. But Pluto was conjoining the natal Sun – a sign of transformation of the index and with this roughly sextile the MC there was a potential for any trend to be magnified. On 16th October 2007 Jupiter transited the progressed descendant creating a turning point. At the same time transiting Mars sextile Saturn/Venus was mirroring the aspect in the chart and triggering the negative pattern again.

In 2007-8 we also see that the progressed MC is square the Ascendant and progressed Mars, suggesting difficult trading patterns.

Can we put the gas back in?

Now, in late July 2008, Pluto is making its final aspect to the Sun and the progressed Sun is leaving Neptune, suggesting this particular bubble will not re-inflate. However with Jupiter transiting that progressed Sun there maybe some brief rallies now and when it returns to this position in October.

The eclipse on 1st August is close to the IC and quincunx the chart’s conjunction of Venus Mercury and Uranus. We might have reached a bottom.

The eclipse on 16th August is accompanied by Saturn trining this conjunction, further suggesting that we will have seen the worst of the downward trend by then. The eclipse is trine progressed Mercury and square progressed Mars, suggesting fluctuations in trading however, which is not surprising given that there is no major upward trend forecast for a while and the fact that the Olympics will disrupt everything in the country for a few weeks.

In September Uranus stationed sextile the Moon for almost six months and Uranus trines Pluto. Despite the fact that some people are now nervous about this market, this coupled with a trine form Saturn to the Sun/Neptune conjunction will probably be seen later as a buying opportunity.

In October, as mentioned there is even a rally, and when the configuration of Jupiter Saturn and Uranus meet the chart’s Moon and Pluto in November this might gain some momentum. Though this will not be on the scale of 2006-7 , it may be a change to make some quick profits which can be realised in December when Jupiter transits Saturn and Pluto makes another sextile to the
Progressed MC, or in January 2009 when Jupiter transits progressed Venus.


2009
After the potential winter rally, the chart looks a little dull for a few months, but obviously the conjunction of May 2009 involving Jupiter Neptune and Chiron merits consideration.

Uranus sextile progressed Saturn at that time and is beginning to activate progressed Mars as well as square the natal Sun. Signs of more activity. Transiting Saturn is trine Neptune and the progressed Sun again- suggesting that people are looking for real value again.
The major conjunction itself is square that progressed Mars but sextile both progressed Mercury and the Sun. This does not say much about price direction. It does suggest lots of trade. On balance it is not bad for this market though.

The theme continues through the summer without much change in direction of the overall market, and again it looks as if we are hovering around a bottom as Saturn trines the Moon and Saturn between July and September.

By December Saturn is quincunx the MC it look as if there are opportunities for the risk adverse investor when it trines the progressed Venus. Pluto again sextile the progressed MC suggests a reorientation of the index but this is not necessarily bad.

2010
There are conflicting themes this year. Saturn continues trining the progressed Venus throughout the period – suggesting value remains important. However it is not a hard aspect which might mean depressed prices- rather it ensures that prices reflect fundamentals.

During this time, Neptune will complete its approach to the progressed Mars and will stay in aspect to Mars for a couple of years. This can mean frantic trading or depressed trading – depending on the other factors – it guarantees lack of clear direction and that delusion will dominate. However it is also sextile the Sun and progressed Mercury. This suggests that the balance will be in favour of another unsubstantiated rise in the index despite the Saturn influence.

Uranus sextiles the chart’s Saturn in February 2010 – this could mark the start of the trend. Jupiter is sextile Venus/Mercury and Uranus briefly – providing the impetus in the form of renewed optimism. Indeed there could be a significant rally in mid March as Jupiter reactivates the Neptune /Sun relationship at the same time as transiting Neptune sextiles the Sun and the progressed Moon squares them, to accentuate the trend. However not everything in the garden is rosy and with Uranus square the Sun it would be wise to expect an unexpected shift either regulatory/sector wise or otherwise.

Trading is likely to be frantic again in April when Uranus sextile the chart’s Mars and given the other factors at play we can assume that buying is the favoured mode and that prices will rise.

By May anything could happen. Neptune continues to square Mars. But now Uranus is joined by Jupiter, doubling the effect, and at the same time Saturn will trine Mars. These aspects remain in force throughout the summer, but by late July they are picking up the progressed Venus too. All in all the following aspects will be in force in August (Pluto sextile MC prog, Saturn trine progressed Venus with Uranus and Jupiter sextile it and Neptune sextile the Sun. It does seem like this market will be a good place to be that summer.

The themes do continue into the latter part of the year but they are more subdued. And by December Saturn is square the Mercury Venus Uranus conjunction – probably selling before then would be wise.

2011
Although Uranus and Jupiter repeat their sextile with Mars in January 2011, Saturn is now square Neptune and the progressed Sun. This will almost certainly depress prices even though not too severely. The progressed Moon square Saturn in February confirms this trend and in March when Saturn stations square the progressed Sun things are quite difficult. Although Jupiter will square Venus and Mercury etc. at the same time, this is likely not to be a favourable event – rather volatility will rise but prices will not.

May 2011 is equally mixed. Positive events shown by Uranus sextile progressed Venus again are offset by Jupiter square the Saturn Moon conjunction – the balance is negative for the month. June looks more positive as Jupiter sextiles the progressed MC, but care is needed as Chiron is also activated.

Things look better from July to September when Jupiter trines Venus/Mercury/Uranus and the progressed Moon trines Neptune and the progressed MC. And the last few months look volatile – with falls in September as Saturn squares Neptune again, rises by November as Jupiter returns to the Venus configuration. All in all trading is uninformed with Neptune still square Mars. But as we can see that may be the clam before the storm.


2012
In January 2012 Neptune is square the Ascendant- showing confusion and misinformation abound. But Jupiter is sextile the progressed MC – people are optimistic anyway. And we are approaching big changes. These will have been highlighted by the themes of 2010-11 but only now will they start to become really apparent as in February Pluto reaches the 8th degree of Capricorn and the conjunction of Venus/Mercury and Uranus. At the same time transiting Uranus is activating the chart’s progressed Venus again. This is about fundamental change. Global forces are at work and they are affecting the Chinese index. Prices look set fro a big re-evaluation – but not due to a bubble mode- rather as a result of real fundamental shifts.

That this is a critical year for the index is confirmed by the fact that two progressions are exact- the progressed Mercury reaches the Sun and the progressed Sun reaches the Moon. This confirms what we have seen elsewhere, that major political and economic changes will be taking place in China at this time and it should come as no surprise that they will be affecting the stock-market.

The themes continue throughout the year. By June Pluto and Uranus are close to their transiting square – We have a fundamental shift in technology, in government structures, in the capitalist system and free markets, and with Neptune conjoining the progressed MC most will have no idea of what the outcome of this will be in the longer term. July is critical- the progressed Moon squares Jupiter and the MC/IC axis, Jupiter transits Mars and the Ascendant- a crucial turning point is reached. Mostly this looks positive – although with Pluto at play dead wood will have to go and only the strong companies will survive to be more successful. But the process is ongoing and will still be in play as we move into 2013.


Chart:

Shanghai Composite Index. Shanghai, Base date 19 December 1990, 15.00 local time (base calculations use closing prices but that this happened on the base date is not confirmed). Source Shanghai stock exchange www.sse.com.cn

Monday, 28 July 2008

FTSE 2008-2012



Mystery Chart?
I don’t usually start with comments about my experience of analysing a specific chart. But this one has been the most difficult to date. I am happy that it is a “good” chart based on its response to prior events ( 1987, 2000), but the future is frankly less obvious. Maybe I will return to it again when I have reviewed all my other analysis to date.

The lows of the last 12 months, corresponded with Saturn being at 3-4 Virgo. In the FTSE chart this opposes the chart’s Jupiter and has been squaring its progressed Sun ( at 4 Gemini).

Currently there are two influences at play. On the one hand Uranus is transiting the FTSE Mars increasing volatility- Mars is natally in the 7th house of partners and relationships – it is not surprising that the index is tracking the US at present. A fact substantiated further by the progressed Ascendant opposing the natal Sun during this time. On the other hand Saturn, having left its square with the progressed Sun and Jupiter is now sextiling the natal Moon, opposing the progressed Moon , is about to conjoin Pluto and then in August will oppose progressed Jupiter. Again this is a busy time.

The solar eclipse of 1 August is within one degree of the chart’s Saturn. There does seem to be a feeling that the bottom has been reached in banking stocks at least. The aspects does suggest a time of re-evaluation and switching sectors. However it should be borne in mind that the UK economic forecast was not good- by all means take advantage of short term shifts, but beware of the long term trends.

The lunar eclipse of 16th August does not significantly affect this chart. The FTSE Uranus is at 27 Leo but this has already been activated for some months and the eclipse at 24 degrees should not affect it much more.

Negative news is likely to put a halt to things those by the end of the month when Saturn squares the FTSE MC and so trading is likely to be much more subdued by the end of August and into September. A lack of direction is indicated. October does not look any better. Saturn is on the Ascendant, never a sign of optimism. However by November when Jupiter completes its configuration with Saturn and Uranus things will be a bit more positive and a sense of stability will ensue in the final months of the year.

The end of the financial crisis of the last couple of years? Hmmmmm we’ll see

2009
The broader themes for the coming 2 years look mixed. On the other hand the progressed Sun is approaching a square with natal Pluto, which by itself is very bad. But progressed Venus will sextile Pluto – good for finding value – even if not good at all for soaring prices.

During 2009 progressed Venus will be transiting the progressed Moon in Cancer, people will be looking to preserve value.

February shows glitches in the system Saturn opposite Uranus is square the Index progressed Mercury. These are likely to be information related though rather than anything else- perhaps the results season shows conflicting results between old and new sectors. Investors won’t have a feeling of where things are going yet. In early March there is indication of frantic trading again. Pluto will sextile the chart’s Jupiter – big deals are indicated.

But the excitement is not for long as Saturn returns to conjoin the Ascendant from March till July.

And we won’t be surprised to find that the, now infamous Neptune/Jupiter/Chiron conjunction of May 2009 does not go unnoticed by the FTSE chart. It is right slap bang opposite the chart’s Uranus. We definitely have an out of the blue event here. What is curious is the lack of impact on the other planets in the chart and the angles, almost as if there is an event of major significant, which doesn’t much affect the prices of the UK stocks. Impossible. Sometimes I just don’t have the imagination to interpret the astrological indicators! Or perhaps it takes tiem to work out what the impact will be on UK companies.

That would backup the continued movement of the progressed Sun towards its square with Pluto. As the impact of the Neptune conjunction is in force all the rest of the year, we can probably expect a slow decline in values rather than anything dramatic. Of course if the reality is that it is currencies that bear the full force of the conjunction then a decline in the index would not be necessary for it to lose value in real global terms.

The next notable time is September 2009. The transiting Uranus/ Saturn opposition picks up the ongoing Saturn opposite progressed Moon and transits the natal Mars. Some more sector evaluation is likely – and some switching out of companies which have no future in favour of others. More volatility courtesy of Uranus is promised in November and December, as the effects of Neptune/Jupiter continues to be felt.

2010
You would expect the index to have key planets picked up by the cardinal cross this year but that does not seem to be the case either.

Pluto does sextile Jupiter, as we have seen, and it returns to this position in January February 2010, a sign of more deal-making perhaps. The fact that this is likely to be significant is confirmed by the “Jupiter return” in the same month. This suggests that a major company or companies are affected.

By March transiting Pluto is close to an opposition with the Moon and progressed Venus, but of course this is supported by the fact that Pluto is now approaching a trine to natal Pluto. Although there is more evaluation of fundamentals this is not all negative.

Indeed in March Jupiter conjoins the chart progressed Jupiter, then squares the MC and transits the Descendant. Things are tricky ( Neptune still opposes natal Uranus) but there does not seem to be any indicator of big falls or big rises.

There is a bit more uncertainty in May. Uranus and Jupiter are opposing Saturn picking up the chart progressed MC and its Uranus again. But no clear direction is indicated.

When the cardinal cross is at its most potent in July/August 2010, the FTSE chart is affected-Pluto is once again sextile the charts Jupiter, The degree is triggered by rather indirectly by the rest of the square. And it is the progressed Moon that picks up the chart Moon, Pluto and progressed Sun and Venus. Further deal, further evaluation, but again no radical rises or falls in the index. Increasingly curious. We have suggested elsewhere that there will be a lot of public unrest at this time so perhaps the market is just not the focus of attention.

The themes continue into the next couple of months. It is not until Saturn squares the Moon and progressed Venus in late September/early October that there seems to be a distinct direction – in this case down.

But even that is not long lasting and the lack of direction really returns by November.

In December Mars progresses into Taurus for the first time since the index was created. The emphasis really does seem to switching long term from trading to capital preservation.

2011
There is no significant change in the influences on this chart in the early part of 2011. Pluto finally reaches the exact opposition with progressed Venus and quincunx with the Progressed Sun, but this only really confirms the ongoing trend rather than creating a new one. The pattern seems to be one of consolidation and conservation- without any major rallies or bubbles.

There are a few points where Jupiter aspects the chart and might lead to some increases in activity, notably March when it conjoins the FTSE Mercury, April with the sun and June with progressed Mars ( big trading days).

This might be the beginning of a new trend, as Neptune will sextile the FTSE progressed Mars by then- difficult to tell whether this means subdued trading or trading that bears no relation to price though – it might indicate weakness and lack of direction, but it might also indicate delusion. It should give an indication of the trend for mid 2012 though.

Saturn calms things down in the later summer. Indeed in November the view of the market is looking bad. I do get the feeling that what may be happening is a lack of enthusiasm for trading opportunities and therefore a disillusionment with the market as a whole.

2012
Although the progressed aspects of Venus and the Sun are weakening by this time, transiting Pluto is taking up the baton to continue the relationship.

The square between Neptune and the progressed Mars is also getting more significant, and may be starting to pick up the FTSE Jupiter by March 2012. The progressed Moon is reinforcing the theme between March and June. On balance this looks like optimism and the potential for prices to lose touch with reality.

Remember that however good things are looking, Pluto and Uranus are square and aspecting the progressed Venus. Things are not out of the woods. There may be value but not everywhere.

In July Saturn crosses the progressed Ascendant leading to some disappointments, but in August the FTSE is all in vogue as Jupiter crosses the MC then goes on to square the Ascendant. Another sign of fluctuating opinions about market direction.

Nothing new really for the rest of the year. Pluto is back undermining the value of things by December and really setting quite a long to trend to do this for some years yet. Caution should still be the order of the day despite that rosy tinted Neptune.


Chart :
FTSE all share : 10 April 1962, London 16.30 BST (index based on close of business)
Note the index was not published until 26 November 1962 but the date of composition is used here.

Nasdaq 2008-2012 - Bubbling away again?


Nasdaq- why bother?

Since markets tend to follow each other, we might think there was no reason to look at two separate US indices. But we are looking at long term trends, over a period of significant change. Nasdaq - you're worth it.

While the Dow reached its all time peak in nominal terms in October 2007 but, as is only too well know by dot.com bubble victims, the Nasdaq reached its peak in 2000. So we should not expect to see the same themes in the two charts. For instance the Nasdaq progressed MC has been in orb of natal or progressed Saturn since 2004, depressing the recovery in a way that didn’t happen with the Dow.

However, when the whole US economy is either booming or collapsing the two should roughly correlate for a while. Indeed the Nasdaq did also reach a recent peak last October and trend-wise has more or less been tracking the Dow since.

So what does the chart show?


Well in one way it parallels the Dow. Whereas in the Dow chart we see progressed Venus trining Pluto, in the Nasdaq, transiting Pluto having been square natal Pluto at the end of 2007 made its first transit of natal Venus in February 2008 an aspect that is also in orb of a conjunction with progressed Mar and square progressed Mercury. But more of that later. Pluto is now retrograde and still square natal Pluto. But there must be more to explain matters?

There is. Uranus in June was close to conjoining the progressed Sun. Sharp eyed readers will notice a curiosity here. The progressed sun of the Nasdaq is at 23 Pisces, that of the Dow at 23 Virgo. They are opposites – partners in crime so to speak and have been since the Nasdaq was created. And of course that means that when anything hits the progressed Sun of one it also hits the other. Aaaagh, you see, it always makes sense when you look properly.

So we should expect the coming lunar eclipse, with its partner in crime, the evil illusionist, Neptune, to do something to this chart too, right? Right. The progressed ascendant of the Nasdaq is at 24 degrees of Leo. Perfect. So it will have responded to the new moon on 2/3 July won’t it? And then it should respond to the eclipse on 16th August. So a quiet summer in the markets maybe? Hmmmm….

It has just been benefiting from Jupiter trine the progressed MC. Another parallel with the Dow, which has Jupiter with the progressed Moon.

The solar eclipse is actually trine both the Nasdaq Mars and MC as well. So a spot of hyperactive trading is probably in order next week, with Saturn probably depressing the price. The fact that Saturn then squares Mars indicates far less trading in early August. But then we have that lunar eclipse. It is also sextile the Moon (which is within a degree of Mercury in the Dow chart You have to buy an intelligent force in the Universe when you see this stuff – well let’s face it we need one since there is a chronic shortage of intelligence in the financial system itself). I expect there will be a shift at this time – perhaps in favour of Nasdaq stocks or just focusing on the make up of the index and the fact that some huge losses in some sectors have been offset by gains elsewhere. I suspect a bubble will start to form in certain sub-sectors. The progressed moon in the background in keeping the Pluto Venus aspect in play throughout this time.

A flurry of unexpected activity is likely in mid September. Mars triggers a square between Jupiter and the Nasdaq Uranus. Maybe a bid or something then, although the indicator is short lived.

The Saturn Jupiter Uranus configuration in November picks up the progressed Saturn on the MC- a similar tale of stability to that seen with the Dow.

However, although Jupiter is sextile the Progressed Sun in December and might be positive, Pluto returns to 0 Capricorn review value in the form of Venus and starts a whole new theme.

2009

By February 2009, Pluto is transiting the progressed Mars, and square Mercury. This suggests trading problems of a technical nature. Computer issues perhaps, or plans to clear out some of the dud stocks in the index. But Saturn is still holding things in check value wise ( trine the progressed Saturn/MC conjunction) which is not necessarily bad.

So of course we are now dying to know about the Jupiter Neptune Chiron conjunction in May. It is on the progressed Descendant and sextile Moon while Uranus transits the Sun. And the Nasdaq was born with a Jupiter Neptune conjunction in trine to Chiron so it will be extra sensitive to this configuration. Yes – huge activity – of an indeterminate direction confirmed here too.

Saturn returns to its trine with the MC/Saturn in June, a claming influence I hope, although the Neptune configuration continues to hold sway all through the summer. More volatility at least until September when Saturn in opposition to Uranus cuts down the effect of the latter.

By October Pluto is again transiting Venus and Saturn is transiting the Nasdaq Pluto. This will kill a lot of dogs in the index. The conjunction between the progressed Saturn and MC is reaching exactitude around this time – another indicator of pruning off the dead branches. There is a Jupiter conjunction with the Nasdaq sun at this point and square the progressed MC but rather than offsetting the effect I see this as being the instigator of the final changes.

As we know by December Saturn is at 1-4 degree Libra and square Pluto, and natal Venus as well as opposite progressed Mercury. This also makes it sextile the Nasdaq’s “bubble” aspect of Jupiter /Neptune in early Sagittarius. Possibly by late December/early January 2010 when Jupiter Neptune and Chiron meet again, we have plans for a new looking Nasdaq index.


2010

Throughout the year Neptune continues to oppose the progressed Ascendant and Uranus again transits the progressed Sun. We don’t give up on the themes of 2009. However the effect of the 2010 cardinal cross becomes more important

In February the progressed Moon opposes the progressed MC/Saturn conjunction.

In March and April, Pluto moves to square progressed Mercury and Uranus still in opposition to Saturn also now opposes the Nasdaq Pluto. This suggests a conflict between the old and new and a resistance to transformation. The matter is emphasised further as Jupiter approaches its conjunction with Uranus at the end of Pisces and picks up the Ascendant axis and Mercury.

By mid summer and the cardinal cross’s maximum influence, the Nasdaq planet’s being influenced are still Venus, progressed Mars, and more favourably the Neptune Jupiter conjunction.

In September to November it is Pluto and the progressed Sun again that are transited by Uranus and Jupiter, really shaking up the fundamentals. This is emphasized further by the progressed Moon which trines the progressed Sun in October. However a counteracting influence, in the form of Saturn transiting the Nasdaq Uranus again restrains further development in November, and in December when Saturn is trine the chart’s Sun, we can expect regulation influences to slow things down.

2011

The Nasdaq progressed Venus will conjoin the chart’s Sun this year. And the progressed Sun will trine the chart’s Ascendant. These should be positive developments. The index should reveal its “best” side for most of the year.

However, at least in the early part of the year, Neptune is still opposing the progressed Ascendant, and Jupiter and Uranus are still shaking up the fundamentals.

In February 2011 Jupiter trines the Jupiter/Neptune conjunction in the Nasdaq chart, and then crosses the chart MC, suggesting the beginnings of a significant rise in value. This might have been brief if it wasn’t for the fact that the progressed Moon will conjoin this natal conjunction from February through to October, continuing the enthusiasm. Uranus will also move forward to trine the conjunction – stimulating matters further. Uranus will also again square progressed Mars and natal Venus, but this square combined with the above influences is only likely to add to more excitement and volatility – it is not a price depressing influence.

In April and May when Jupiter trines the Ascendant and squares the progressed ascendant, the trend is likely to be accentuated. However the trend is then somewhat offset by Saturn which stations throughout the summer on the chart IC and Uranus. This holds things in check a bit at that time. Saturn in trine with the Nasdaq Sun and progressed Venus, emphasises value over speculation by September.

The volatility created by the Uranus square continues through the last months of the year.. Saturn square the ascendant, among other things, in October and November looks to me like a suppressing influence. The bubble of the earlier months will deflate somewhat at this time.

2012
I expect the influence of Saturn to temporarily lift from December 2011 to February 2012, and the influence of Uranus to return with more volatility leading to increases in stock prices– especially with the support Jupiter in Taurus trining progressed Mars at this time.

The volatility doesn’t really stop all year as Uranus continues to create trading impetus. But there is another fall back between March and August, as Saturn retraces its steps. April and May look particularly interesting- Jupiter will transit the Nasdaq chart’s Saturn and then its progressed Saturn and finally, progressed MC. Jupiter at this point in 2000 was the peak of the tech bubble – and although it was accompanied then by a “Saturn return” in the chart, the Saturn position square the ascendant is likely to have a similar influence. Added to this Pluto is square the chart MC- dangerous territory – watch out for what is happening at this time – it will give some indication of what is to come in the next years.

However Pluto retraces its steps and Saturn moves temporarily out of orb for a few months so bubble territory is indicated again by July. Jupiter is square Neptune, and this configuration picks up the Nasdaq Jupiter/Neptune conjunction.

But Saturn pulls things down again in September and the index is relatively quiet for a couple of months until around December when the future direction becomes clearer. We will return to these major changes in our 2013-2020 forecasts later.


Chart:


Nasdaq Composite: 5 February 1971, New York, 15.30 local time (Index based on close of business) Source: www.Nasdaq.com

Where goeth the Dow 2008 -2012?


The one and only market?
Financial astrologers love the US stock-market. Indeed for many – this is the only stock market in the world. Consequently, every time there is even the slightest negative indicator in the sky, there is tendency to predict an imminent stock market crash.

It is all too easy to get caught up in this Doom for the Dow mentality. I almost got hooked in September/October 2006, when Neptune opposed Saturn – an obvious sign of price depression. Fortunately, before putting any money on this, I wisely checked out the actual charts of the Dow and Nasdaq, only to find that they weren’t “picking up” the Neptune/Saturn aspect at all- by which I mean, the opposition was not making any significant aspects to the planets in the indices’ charts.


Furthermore it is crucial for any financial astrologer to understand the economics of a situation. Price inflation and currency deflation– whilst not accompanied by any apparent major structural changes ( the situation in 2006-7) will lead to inflation in the relevant stock-market as indeed as happened. I

So it is important to remember there are many stock-markets around the globe, all resonating to different themes. A negative transiting aspect may pick up all those stock-markets, just some selected ones or none at all.

Furthermore it is crucial for any financial astrologer to understand the economics of a situation. Price inflation and currency deflation– whilst not accompanied by any apparent major structural
changes ( the situation in 2006-7) will lead to inflation in the relevant stock-market as indeed happened with the Dow over this period.

Having said that, clearly there is a reason for the Dow obsession. It is an index containing some of the world’s biggest companies. And, while the US remains the biggest country by GDP in the world, it is a good place as any to start when looking at future stock performance.

2008 Bi-polar Bear?
Now obviously the Dow has fallen significantly (even into a technical bear market) since its high of 14,200 last October, and now stands at around only 11,500 its value two years ago.

So what has occurred this last twelve months? We know that a major cycle ended in December when Jupiter completed its conjunction with Jupiter. The progressed Jupiter of the Dow is at 27 Leo so trined that over-expansive event. Is there anything else that explains the process?

Progressed Venus was approaching a trine with Pluto all year- completed in mid June and is now approaching a trine to progressed Pluto. This indicates transformation in value- clearing out dead wood ( no companies mentioned by name…), but by itself probably wouldn’t lead to big falls. However progressed Venus is also squaring the progressed Ascendant and in the last three months this has been further triggered by the progressed moon. Definitely a sign that the index is under change as some companies no longer qualify.

In the short tern of course there can be big fluctuations. The current boost is a product of transiting Jupiter conjoining the progressed moon at 15 Capricorn this month.

So what about the upcoming eclipses? Do they affect the chart? The solar eclipse doesn’t really but the Lunar eclipse on 16th August is square the Dow Venus and widely aspecting progressed Jupiter. It also, to a lesser extent, aspects the Dow Mercury and progressed Sun. All this throws the market into the spotlight and asks questions about real value. Expect more trading and re-pricing of the index companies in the run up to this date- though by itself the aspect does not really say what will happen to the overall index value. However a major rise is not anticipated – Jupiter returns to its position in February – the low up until the last couple of weeks. Still, another big fall doesn’t look to be on the cards at the moment either.


In September, Uranus returns to its square with the Dow progressed Neptune, and Neptune to its square with the Dow Uranus, another indicator of volatility in duplicate. Expect the period around 15th September to be eventful too. I’m expecting a possible US interest rate change during the month so maybe this leads to a rebound. Saturn is square the Dow Pluto at this time, and while this could be interpreted as a negative influence, I see it more as intervention creating some stability for a while.

Obviously by November we have Saturn/Jupiter and Uranus all in aspect to one another. As this picks up the Uranus/Saturn conjunction in the chart in a relatively positive way, it looks as if the overall. Jupiter returns to the IC and the progressed Moon in late November which might result in another boost.

2009
If the number of progressions becoming exact is an indicator of the importance of events in a chart, then the Dow is showing a lot of activity. As well as the previously mentioned Venus aspects, the progressed Sun will square Mercury and trine Venus during 2009, the progressed Mercury trines the progressed Neptune and progressed Mars conjoins the Dow Neptune.

The early part of the year seems to be only a continuation of late 2008, although the January/February eclipses pick up both the Dow’s Sun, and progressed Mercury/Neptune suggesting plenty of focus on the index, and a progressed Moon /Sun trine in March – again relatively positive.

However by April Uranus will oppose the Dow progressed Sun and square its Mercury and sextile its Venus. Big unexpected changes are afoot, but only just beginning. At the same time transiting Pluto will finally reach a square to the chart’s Mars. This suggests major trading challenges and with the other aspects in place, value issues are also likely.

Saturn goes retrograde in January and repeats some of the aspects ( such as the square to Neptune and progressed Mars) that it makes in late 2008, this is a depressing effect, but in the light of other aspects, I would not expect it to dominate the picture.

May is dominated, of course, by the exceedingly rare Jupiter- Neptune-Chiron conjunction, backed up by a semi-sextile from Uranus. In the Dow chart the conjunction opposes Jupiter. Watch the August 16th 2008 trends of an indication of the themes we will see in 2009, but it is likely to lead to huge levels of trading- maybe liquidation of large portions of the stocks involved. At this stage I would just bet on huge volumes, not direction – given the potential for immense shifts in currency values at this time.

These themes carry on throughout the year. The Saturn Uranus opposition repeats in September-November 2009 across the progressed Sun access square Mercury and sextile Venus- as this is a battle between old and new, I would expect the index to be redefined and new companies to replace old at this time – I suspect at least some of the components will have gone into bankruptcy by this time. The position of transiting Jupiter at this time ( trine Neptune and progressed Mars) suggests that there will be a big demand for shares in the index at this time.

Late December sees the end of the Jupiter Neptune Chiron relationship, and a repeat, though to a lesser extend of the May themes.

Also in December Saturn reaches its square with Pluto and will give us an indication of the themes for 2010.

2010

It is notable that in the Dow chart there are a number of planets at early degrees of the signs. But, only Mars at 3 degrees of Aries is in a cardinal sign. Jupiter is at 4 degrees of Leo, The Sun at 6 of Gemini and the Moon at 4 of Sagittarius. What this means is that the Cardinal cross is not all bad for the Dow, as the planets that form it are as likely to support the Dow chart planets as challenge them.

In February 2010, we will get more of an idea of how this will play out over the year and especially the tight summer cross. Uranus continues to oppose the progressed Sun at this time, more changes in the way things are run on the markets can be anticipated.

In March there is yet more activity. Neptune will oppose progressed Jupiter and transiting Jupiter will trigger the Pluto/progressed Venus/progressed Ascendant again- more re-evaluation of relative values of the components.

The only prediction we can make based on the chart for the summer and the cardinal cross in August is that there will be a huge amount of trade. In what direction is less easy to predict.

In the last months of the year, Uranus and Jupiter retrograde to oppose the Dow’s Sun again and Saturn moves forward to conjoin progressed Venus trine Pluto and square the progressed Ascendant triggering off more re-evaluation – this time almost certainly in a negative direction.

2011
Saturn remains within a few degrees of the Venus/Pluto configuration until September of 2011 and Pluto within aspect of the Dow Sun, which together suggests generally depressed prices during most of this time.

Uranus returns to 3 degrees Aries in May 2011, and again in August, suggesting increased trading at that time and Jupiter squares Jupiter in June continuing this theme.

After September Saturn moves on to trine progressed Neptune and Mercury, a mild aspect which by itself probably does not signify. However Saturn’s absence from the Venus/Pluto configuration will release some of the pressure and prices might recover. The likelihood of this is enhanced as the progressed Moon reaches transiting Neptune opposite Jupiter by November/December time, suggesting significant speculation and loss of touch with value reality – although Saturn in orb of a trine to the progressed Moon in the last week of December might mitigate this a little then.

Note however that this is the last trine of Saturn to the progressed Moon, an aspect that has been in force since 1996/7, presumably this is the point where government policy is forced to stop protecting the public shareholders and funds as other matters take priority.

2012
Again, a year with conflicting themes.

Progressed Venus, still within orb of the progressed Ascendant and now conjunct the natal Ascendant is very much the focus of the year as it approaches a trine to the Dow Neptune.

Uranus makes its final transit to the Dow Mars (and thus Moon and Jupiter) in February, a last twist in the tail of the events of the last year or two before going on to sextile the Dow’s Sun. Jupiter marks the turning point as it opposes the progressed MC in March and the Saturn Uranus conjunction in April.

The Neptune conjunction with the progressed Moon continues through to May, leaving a sense of uncertainty, lack of confidence and feeling of deception. But this begins to recover as the progressed Moon trines the natal Jupiter.

Saturn stations on the chart’s progressed Mercury in June-September, which by itself suggests lack of activity, but at the same time Jupiter will conjoin the chart’s Sun, and activate the Mars/Jupiter/Moon trine, a positive offset.

In the last months of the year Uranus continues to transit the Dow Sun. In September Jupiter reaches Pluto, and by 2013 will again re-activate the configuration with progressed Venus – even though this should otherwise be well past.



Chart:
Dow (DJIA): 26 May 1896, New York, 15.00 local time (Index based on close of business). Sources www.NYSE.com

Saturday, 26 July 2008

Feedback and suggestions


I thought some of the feedback I received from friends and others was worthy of exploring. Here are the comments and my responses:-


It’s not very cheerful is it?
I can certainly see why some people might think this- although I think it was pretty positive of me not to predict the end of the world in 2012.

But, a truly bad event for everyone is, thankfully, very rare. Even catastrophes present opportunities for some. And when it comes to financial matters there are always winners as well as losers. Crises points are choice points. We are all free to choose how we respond.

I write from the perspective of the status quo. The purpose of my posts is to indicate when big changes may occur; these will have negative implications for those who cling to the status quo, but for those who embrace the flow, the opportunities can be unlimited.

So, rather than having me write a lot of platitudes and uplifting twaddle, if you throw away your preconceived notions of what is economically good and bad in the world, you will see that what I write is as positive as you first believed it was negative.


There is a lot of text. Could you make the postings shorter?
Yes. There is a lot of text. Let’s face it most blogs are commentary of current topics in whatever field. Mine isn’t a blog in that sense- what I am doing is publishing full articles in blog format, because it’s a convenient one.

So, sorry, there is a lot of text but I am covering long time periods and doing a lot of analysis. Either such breath and depth is useful or it isn’t. If you like everything in KISS mode and just a few bullet points you probably aren’t the right audience for this blog.

I could break it down into smaller bites and post more entries, but that would just mean the information would become more disjointed. But I will do so whenever it makes sense.

There are a lot of technical astrological references. Can’t you make it friendlier to non-astrologers?
This is a fair point. And, I could write a much shorter and pithier article if I just stuck to the predictions with no explanations. But the problem is that with no explanations, there is no evidence for my forecasts.

My blog is a tool for refining and building on the model. We need to know what was said and why in one year in order to revise and expand upon what will happen in the next.

I have considered also posting “executive summaries” which just extract the bare predictions. However the blog format doesn’t let me post two things together in parallel so I haven’t found a good way of addressing this yet. Nevertheless, I am still thinking about this problem and I might improve it in future.

You claim to be an economist but you don’t do any economic analysis

I presume this is a compliment…..

A lot of my understanding of markets, economies, monetary systems etc. does come from my economics background. However, it is true that I don’t use any economic models to make my forecasts. Since most economists get it wrong, that is not necessarily a bad thing…..

Economic forecasting depends on models constructed for the purpose, often by the user. I have a model in the form of the solar system which I did not construct (the rumours of my divinity are grossly exaggerated), and which therefore allows me to be more objective than if I used an economic one. And since mixing models is like mixing metaphors- not terribly successful and open to ridicule - I will stick to just the one.


Your analysis of the Iran/Israel situation shows distinct bias in favour of…..
Both options have been suggested. Bias, like beauty, is mostly in the eye of the beholder.

So, no, my analysis doesn’t show any bias. Actually by the time I had written both elements, I was irritated by both parties keeping repeating the same themes over and over and frankly didn’t care either way what the outcome was. The last line of each section gives some indication of my total detachment.

And a more detailed example of the above:


You show a picture of Iran’s missiles (the one where they are all fired) but nothing for Israel.

I really, really wanted the pictures to be unbiased. I searched for a picture of Israel’s trial mission in early June but not only did I not find any pictures, I didn’t even find a time or even an exact date anywhere. Surely someone somewhere must have seen them? Anyway, what I don’t have, I can’t post.

I posted the 4 missile picture because it is prettier. Aesthetics matter to me.

Sunday, 20 July 2008

China and the Renminbi :2008-2012



2008: Where we are now




The Bank of China and the Republic were formed just 10 months apart and therefore the charts have elements, such as the position of the outer planets in common.

Obviously China has been and remains in the limelight this year, due to the Olympics. The issues surrounding the Tibet situation and the Dali Lama have also been highlighted. Added to this the country have suffered both earthquakes and floods in recent months.

All this is a reflection of the coming solar eclipse on 1st August. The path of this eclipse ends in Western China. And the degree of the eclipse is sextile China’s sun and closely trine its progressed sun. Furthermore the lunar eclipse of 16th August at 24 Leo and conjunct transiting Neptune (water, spiritual matters etc) is 3 degrees from a square to the country’s MC, and makes quincunx aspects to progressed Venus and to Jupiter. Finally, the country’s progressed Ascendant is squaring is Mars this years – a lovely indicator for the Games. So the fact that the focus is on China should not be surprising. But what about the economic themes?

What is striking about the Renminbi chart if the position of Saturn at 4/5 degrees Virgo. There is some evidence to suggest that this point is key in the US dollar chart – perfect symbolism then for a currency pegged to the dollar.

Of course the peg has been relaxed a little in the last few years- but revaluation is still carefully controlled.

It is, as readers will now be familiar the degree at which last summer’s lunar eclipse took place and which Saturn transited in October 2007, March 2008 and again in the last couple of weeks.

A reasonable question is therefore, if the currency has just had a Saturn return why does the Renminbi still have apparent strength (I say apparent because the control over the partial peg restricts a free valuation so the real value can only be deduced from other factor)? The answer is that Saturn in the chart is trine a Jupiter Mars conjunction. The real value would have gone much higher by now if the currency was free floating but it is not – Saturn is and has been holding it in check.

The currency (being nearly 60 years old) is also having a Jupiter return, as well as having had a progressed sun sextile sun. All of which are positive signs. The Jupiter return has one more pass to the progressed Jupiter – in November so there are still some very positive signs for the currency.

However not everything is positive. Jupiter is also about to square the currency’s Neptune and will be within orb until November. This is inflationary. Finally Pluto is making its final opposition to the Renminbi Uranus, indicating the end of the pattern of change of the last three years or so.
The Olympics and beyond in 2008

During August Saturn will go on to square the chart’s Sun and Moon (and possible conjoin its ascendant – based on a midnight start time). This coincides with the Olympics and suggests some financial challenges coinciding with those. However these are likely to be minor disruptions rather than any major problem.

By the time transiting Saturn Uranus and Jupiter make their configuration in November, Jupiter is back near progressed Jupiter and Venus – suggesting increased value – presumed to be vs. the dollar etc. But the progressed Moon is opposite natal Pluto and trine natal Neptune – maybe some strong demand for the currency, or some other valuation problem causes some financial imbalance affecting the people at this time. Perhaps the effects of inflation begin to impact the ordinary people.

That seems to be confirmed by the China chart which has its Saturn return. Transiting Saturn conjoins both the progressed Saturn and Mars in October and November, and Uranus opposes them. This suggests some internal unrest and opposition. Probably demands for more freedom- the country is also having its Jupiter return at this time ( December) and Jupiter will further transit the country’s Moon ( representing the people ) and the Ascendant in January 2010, another indication of broadening horizons, or at the very least significant influence from the rest of the world that can’t be ignored.

2009- Outside influences and internal changes

The themes continue in the country chart in 2009, and there is some pressure in March April when transiting Pluto squares the progressed Moon and almost opposes the country’s Uranus. But not quite. More concerning is the fact that the country’s progressed Mars and its progressed Saturn are approaching an exact conjunction all this year. This is a military aspect and is likely to suggest oppression in some way – although the exact point does not occur until 2010.

However economically things don’t look too bad. In China’s chart Uranus sextiles Jupiter and progressed Venus all year, as well as the progressed MC. This suggests that the country will appear to maintain its economic strength whatever else is happening globally.

From the Renminbi perspective, January through Summer 2009 is interesting. On the one hand the positive Saturn Uranus aspect to progressed Venus continues, on the other Pluto will conjoin the Mars Jupiter conjunction. This indicates a major change afoot. This suggests big pressure to let the currency float freely against the dollar (from the US or from Asia itself it is difficult to tell). Certainly it is difficult to see a Pluto transit to what is a very driven conjunction (Mars Jupiter) suggesting anything other than a dramatic change in the level of trade in the currency and possibly the value thereof.

A curiosity is that most of the Renminbi chart is not significantly hit by the Jupiter Neptune Chiron conjunction of May 2009. Whatever is happening in China at this time it will be happening in quite a different way to US/UK etc. It does seem increasingly likely that this is some major unravelling/speculation/inflation in the Western currencies which leads to significantly increased demand for the Renminbi, and probably increased negotiations with US etc about this issue. It is interesting to note that the progressed moon will be within orb though – the people of China are affected by what is happening – and if we use a different time (9am) for the currency, then this falls at exactly 26 Aquarius – the degree of the May conjunction.

This is confirmed by the China chart –as mentioned the MC is at 26 Scorpio, so square the Neptune conjunction. My feeling is that there will be further issues regarding Tibet affecting the country at this time, but that the speculation/inflationary issues elsewhere won’t have the same impact as in the US etc.

The Renminbi themes continue throughout 2009, until October when there is a slight change as transiting Saturn squares the currency’s Uranus. Additional controls may have to be put in place at this time. Interest rates could change (as Jupiter conjoins progressed Mercury) The fact that Saturn then goes on to square transiting Pluto and natal Mars and Jupiter in December seems to confirm that conditions relating to trading the currency again become quite difficult and remain so in January 2010.

2010: Big Changes from mid-year

In January the Chinese progressed Moon opposes the country’s Neptune, and sense of deception may ensue amongst the people.

By February 2010, Jupiter is square the Renminbi sun and moon and opposite Saturn, suggesting a freeing up process. This is emphasised by the fact that Uranus will square the chart’s Uranus this year and this once every 21 year hard aspect is likely to result in radical change. Transiting Pluto will also trine the Renminbi Saturn, which as we have noted is the point at which it is tied to the dollar. Further managed revaluation is likely. Pluto trining the Renminbi Venus further suggests a transformation of value this spring.

In May the situation is even more disruptive as transiting Jupiter joins Uranus in the Sky and reactivates the Uranus to Uranus square. Expect big challenges to the status quo between April and June 2010. The progressed Moon sextile to Mars and Jupiter suggests that the Chinese people will be active at this time too.

This is further confirmed as the change is mirrored in the China chart. The Saturn Uranus opposition sextiles/trines the Country’s progressed MC, Venus and Jupiter conjunction and within 1 degree the country’s natal MC. Money issues/economics are definitely highlighted.

However the theme of deception already referred to becomes stronger. Transiting Neptune will square the country’s MC. Maybe it will be difficult for the rest of the world to understand what is happening economically in China at this time. But also with the Mars Saturn progressed aspect exact there is an indication that there may be some further oppression and a closing down of information channels.

The August cardinal square really hits the Renminbi’s Mars/Jupiter conjunction in Capricorn:
Pluto conjoins it, Saturn squares it from Libra, Uranus and Jupiter square it from Aries. A dramatic change is likely – perhaps a free float of the currency?

In the Chinese country chart- the cardinal square hits Uranus. Now as I mentioned in my introductory posts on the broad theme of this conjunction, Uranus in the early degrees of the cardinal signs has been critical in the development of China throughout the last century. To recap Uranus was last in Aries, beginning in 1927/28 leading to:
Formation of the Communist Chinese People’s Liberation Army during the Nachang Uprising
and an 8.6 magnitude eathquake,killed 200,000.
1948/1950 Uranus in Cancer: The current Republic formed
1968/9 Uranus in Libra: The Cultural Revolution
1988/9 – Uranus moved into Capricorn: Tiananmen Square protests

Ad to the fact that we have 4 major planets aspecting the country’s Uranus and an exact Mars Saturn progression and a progressed ascendant square the country’s natal Pluto to expect nothing to happen in China this summer would be more than naive it would be frankly idiotic. So the period right through summer to October promises to be very exciting and not necessarily easy, although one can assume that the end result will be to bring China further forward in its development.

However things start to look more stable by October. There are changes in the way things are managed and by November there may actually be a feeling of a slight handover from all the activity indicated by the Saturn opposition to Neptune (in both the country and currency charts). However with Jupiter and Uranus still squaring progressed Uranus in the renminbi chart and Pluto continuing to oppose Uranus in the country chart there will still be a lot of instability in the system.

2011: More changes but different

The themes for the spring of 2011 shift a little.

In China’s chart the progressed Ascendant continues the theme of major transformation as it squares progressed Pluto. Jupiter Uranus continues a trine to the country’s MC suggesting more freedoms, although with a corresponding Neptune square some of these will be illusory. There is a potential turning point in March as Jupiter transits opposite Saturn and over the Chinese Sun Neptune and Mercury.

And, in the Renminbi chart, Uranus will continue to square Mars and Jupiter throughout the year. But Saturn moves on after April suggesting that attempts to control matters reduce again until October. There is potential for banknote inflation/forgery or computer fraud in the summer as Neptune squares Mercury.

It seems as if there is mixed success at adjusting to a new environment throughout the year, with things continuing in a state of flux – sometimes with volatility and disruptions, sometimes with periods of uncertainty and lack of any direction.

2012: Beginning to settle


In 2012, in the Chinese chart Uranus will square Uranus so the impetus for change will remain. Pluto will continue to be square the Republic sun throughout this year, supported in the latter part of the period by Uranus and continuing the challenge to existing leadership. On the other hand the country’s progressed Ascendant will trine progressed Saturn and Mars and oppose Venus, and actually this is potentially a very stabilising and diplomatic influence. By the end of the year a new regime (either evolved or completely changed) will be emerging as the progressed MC reaches a conjunction with Jupiter. Potentially China may reach a significant point in its economic development vs. US etc at this point too.

In the Renminbi chart, in 2012, although Uranus is still transiting square Mars and Jupiter, transiting Jupiter moves on to form much more favourable aspects to Mars, Jupiter and Saturn. Neptune will sextile Mars and Jupiter- an inflationary indicator but not a difficult one. Even if things aren’t good in reality, with Neptune they will seem to be at this stage. Saturn also forms trines to progressed Mars, to Uranus and a sextile to the Mars/Jupiter conjunction during the year all helping stabilize matters a lot. Consolidation and a feeling of getting a grip on value are likely this year.

Charts:

Renmimbi/Peoples Bank of China formed and started to issue currency 1 Dec 1948 Beijing, time unknown; time used midnight local. Source PBC
Alternative time considered 9 a.m.
PR China: 1 October 1949. Time, 15.15 Local. Source: Book of World Horoscopes. N Campion

Monday, 14 July 2008

Iran and israel - will they, won't they?




My intention is not to publish political charts here. However it’s is clear that the Iran/Israel situation has a knock on effect on Oil prices and general economics and is therefore fair game.

I did publish a forecast of the progress of the relationship between the countries and indeed the USA in February 2006 as part of a prediction challenge here:

http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1421

Although I admit I hedged my bets a bit on that one, I have been generally pleased with the results. Especially for Israel where I hit on some clear winners:

This configuration will be heavily hit by the Saturn Neptune Jupiter T square later in the year, but that is likely to reflect issues to do with the leadership rather than external matters. As mentioned it is 2008 before Neptune reaches the natal sun so such issues may drag on, there may be questions asked about internal political issues.

Obviously corruption and other matters have kept rearing their head there the whole time.

I also said about the period of Spring Summer 2006:

The Gemini progressed conjunction has something to say about Palestine, having already been activated by Pluto for the last couple of years, and cannot easily be unravelled, yet it was certainly triggered in the 1981 situation described above. And with mars ruling the 7th it is difficult to discount the likelihood that both natal and progressed mars aspects will signify either attack or being attacked. …... An astrological case could be made for something happening very soon. With Pluto conjunct Jupiter square progressed mars opposite progressed Uranus being activated in 4-6 months by the progressed moon.

What of course I failed to pick up was that the adversary in the attack and being attacked situation was Lebanon. No shame – no one asked me to look at the Lebanon chart!

I concluded my Israel analysis with:

The emphasis shifts a little in 2008. Pluto continues to oppose progressed mercury but no longer aspects mars. However, in June the full moon is at 27 sag right on Israel’s natal Jupiter, and the full moon eclipse that follows on 16 August may support action.

June 2008? Yes alleged trials for an attack in the Mediterranean.

I then said:

Uranus opposes the progressed MC mid year and progressed ascendant is exactly opposite natal mercury. Uranus was square progressed MC in 1981 so mid July cannot be ruled out – note that the progressed moon returns to its 1981 position end August 2008. But this is again rather close to November 2008 and US elections to make any action likely then…..

I do appear to have completely over-estimated the control of the situation by the US. It appears that Israel may have no regard for the US at all and may just go their way regardless of the consequences on their allies.

Of Iran in the same period I said:
Although the eclipse cycle which culminates on 16 August 2008 transits the critical Pisces 24-27 degrees, interesting there are no other new developments for some time after this. Rather more of the same. Uranus stations at 22 degrees Pisces without reaching Mars and Mercury. Saturn does not return to its return position of 7/8 degrees until August when it conjuncts Mars there. That suggests Iran will be in military mode that summer – perhaps under martial law?

I got the bit about the state of Iran internally wrong. A reflection of my lack of real knowledge of how things tick there internally which makes it difficult to imagine how things will play out.
Still they are in military mode shooting off rockets (or not depending on photoshop), so not bad for a prediction made two and half years ago.

So what is doing to happen next? Let’s look at Iran first:-

Actually my comment about Mars was not strictly true- as Mars is transiting the Iranian Saturn now in July. This whole period of the second half of July is risky. Mars moves on to square the MC on 17th, and the Sun and Mercury transit Jupiter in the last week (though since the Sun returns to this position every year (!) perhaps too much significance should not be attached to that alone).

Mars then opposes Iran’s Mars and Mercury on 12th-15th August. Expect at least some more heavy rhetoric then. At this point transiting Saturn moves past the degree it reached in December 2007, which suggests new developments. The Sun will trigger this Saturn transit to the progressed Ascendant in the first week of September suggesting that the theme will continue for that period too.

However, there is a lull after this. So whatever happens in August/early September it doesn’t look like a prolonged event. None of the outer planets make especial aspects to the Iranian chart until November when the mundane Jupiter/Uranus/Saturn configuration aspects the Iranian Uranus and progressed Mars – this suggests disruption and adjustment but not all out conflict – and let’s be honest all eyes will be on the US then anyway.

Because Saturn then goes retrograde the situation is in abeyance over the winter. Jupiter transits the Descendant on March 22nd. Then in April/May transiting Uranus reaches a conjunction with Iran’s Mars. What is more significant is that the progressed Sun will pass the country’s MC in May. I have to say I don’t like the look of this because the timing coincides with major aspects to so many other economic charts. A change of leader is possible – but so is conflict. Take the 16th May – Mars is transiting progressed Mars and opposing Pluto – this tends to breed violence (the UK has experienced a spate of stabbings with a similar aspect this summer).

So what happens then? Well the events look like continuing for a couple of months but then Uranus goes retrograde in the summer and does not reach the same degree again until 2010. There is some action in September/October when Saturn opposes this position, and Jupiter is stationed on the descendant, but nothing through the winter. That is curious. What goes on hold? Why? Is it Iran or is it something else?

Then in March 2010 Uranus returns to its position with a new moon at the same degree on 16th March and transiting Mars on the progressed Jupiter. By mid May Jupiter has reached the Iranian Mars as it makes its mundane conjunction with Uranus that month. Now this is rather explosive.

So even if something happens in spring 2009 – it won’t be all over until this particular fat lady sings in 2010 at least. And since Jupiter and Uranus go retrograde in the last part of 2010 the themes will continue until February 2011.

At that time Saturn transits Iran’s Pluto and Pluto trines its Saturn. Resolution will come one way or the other then.


So what, if anything, in Israel’s chart coincides with these key dates?

Well as already mentioned in my 2006 forecast. June through August are exciting.
Today ( 14th July) Neptune is square the Sun- not a time for conflict. And with Uranus retrograding opposite its progressed MC, it still has a very unsettled foundation- but that is to do with the past –probably Palestine etc-just as well there is a conference about it. Probably there will be announcements ( not all good) this week as Mars squares Mercury and the progressed Ascendant- well, it is impossible to keep everyone happy in that situation.

The eclipsed new moon on 1st August is trine the Israel progressed Ascendant as well as making some other favourable aspects. The lunar eclipse on 16th August is trine the natal Ascendant and favourably aspects Uranus and Venus and Jupiter. And I have already referred to the position of the progressed moon at the 1981 position. Really this is a very good time for peace not war- but with Israel you never know they may decide it’s a good time for anything.

Actually, this summer (August to October) is the last time Pluto will square the Israeli progressed Mars and, if it wasn’t for what will come next, that would suggest it might feel a little less threatened.

November and the Jupiter/Uranus/Saturn configuration shows a similar theme in the Israel chart to that in the Iranian one- adjustment but again not conflict. The country’s Saturn is aspected but obliquely- more internal governmental and political issue probably. Furthermore Pluto will oppose the progressed Mercury suggesting undercover activity at this time.

In April 2009 Uranus will again oppose the progressed MC and there will be more disruptive activity–But this time Uranus goes on to square Venus and Uranus- the matter moves forward for good or evil. At the same time the Neptune/Jupiter/Chiron conjunction trines them. Uranus square Uranus isn’t good – but it still doesn’t seem quite like the climax of the situation that might be expected – too much uncertainty and retaliation and no certain outcome. Still 23rd May time might lead to some conflict.

As in the Iranian chart we see Saturn squaring and restricting matters in the late summer of 2009. Uranus and Saturn oppose each other across the progressed Israeli MC axis in September and Saturn goes on to square natal Uranus and Venus. This is particularly challenging. When combined with the information from Iran of frankly not so much it says either that all plans regarding Iran will be suspended due to other conflict in Israel– or if conflict with Iran has already started it will have no resolution for this whole period (so anyone expecting a quick result will not be happy).

Although the opposition between Uranus and the progressed MC finally ends at the end of 2009, from early 2010, the progressed MC will square natal Uranus and progressed Venus ( astrology is very good at doing this theme baton passing). Uranus will go on to square progressed Uranus and natal Jupiter opposition in April. Then in May Jupiter will catch up with Uranus as Uranus goes on to oppose the Israel progressed Mars, by then at 29 degrees.

The problem with these aspects is that they are not very rational – they are “do something at all costs” to change the situation aspects – and worry about the consequences later. Unfortunately this is exactly the mix that Israel was born on (Uranus was opposite Jupiter) so in 2010 we have a double whammy involving an exact progressed aspect and the transiting conjunction. That can’t be good – and as mentioned it is not a one off but a series of aspects between May and December. Added to which Neptune will be sneaking up to oppose the country’s Mars. Neptune in hard aspect to Mars means “ if you are called to resolve someone else’s ongoing conflict you will be a victor, but if you start your own – it will drag out eternally” ( example US in Iraq and Afganistan).

Well presumably one way or another the future of Israel will be settled by the end of this too.

Clearly then there are a few risk points. I would say in order of the highest risk first.

1. Spring 2010 (long lasting)
2. March - May 2009 ( but suspended by late summer)
3. This July August (brief)


Charts used: Both from Nick Campion's Book of World Horoscopes

Iran 1 April 1979 15.00 Tehran 17 Leo rising
Israel 14 May 1948 14.00 Tel Aviv 23 Libra rising






Sunday, 13 July 2008

OIL (II) 2008-2012



Long term trend.
As mentioned in the previous post (oil – a case study…), Pluto and Neptune were in sextile aspect and have temporarily pulled away from this aspect. By 2004 they were 52 degrees apart and that gap has reached 51 degrees in 2007-8. It is not surprising then that we have such a disrupted oil market- and it is unlikely that the situation will settle in the next couple of years.

They stay around 51 degrees until 2012 and then start moving back into their sextile relationship. After 2012, as the two planets move back towards the sextile, we can expect some reduction in demand and a lowering of prices as the market clams down for the next 20 years. Although it is, unfortunately, likely that part of the reason for this will be a protracted recessionary phase which may not necessarily be considered a good thing, from the point of view of matching supply and demand in the oil market it is a positive trend.

Post 2030 we can expect the end of the Pluto Neptune sextile to bring reduced availability which would also lead to increased prices. However, by then, it is likely that there will be sufficient alternatives and that oil usage will decline as the final sextile aspect dims. I expect consumerism to begin to decline after that time too -but more of that another time.

Having identified the broader themes, we can now look at the detail.



What has contributed to the increase in prices in the last 12 months?

Clearly if Pluto and Neptune are the same degree apart for almost a decade - they don’t tell the whole story. To get the complete picture we need to look at how the other planets are contributing to the picture by reinforcing or ameliorating the core aspect, and refer to the 1891 chart for more clues.

We know that in 2007 Neptune was in opposition to Saturn - well anyone who was involved in the US housing boom, and its ending in the credit crisis, will be well aware of the effects of that aspect. On the other hand Jupiter was conjoining Pluto and sextiling Neptune during 2007, which would contribute to speculation. But let’s not get too excited – Jupiter moves a sign even year each time activating the relationship. In 2008, both Jupiter and Pluto have moved on but the price rises continue. In the first half of 2008 alone the price of oil has risen from $99 to $145. In March it went to over $110 in May to over $130. Even taking into account supply issues and other fears, this is clearly rampant speculation. Although some commentators and government officials are stating that the effect is pure supply and demand, George Soros supports the speculation theory:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/26/cnsoros126.xml

So why, in astrological terms, is this speculation still occurring ?

The price rise really got going in the second half of the year so contributors are likely to be:
  • The transit of Neptune to the 1891 chart. And the relationship of the progressed planets to that chart – specifically Mars, Venus and Mercury that are all within orb of transiting Neptune. With the ascendant at 23 degrees we see that over the last couple of years progressed Mars has been coming into trine with it. And in the last 12 months transiting Neptune has moved from 19-20 degrees Aquarius to 23-24 degrees. Nothing detaches things from their real value quite like Neptune, and nothing does trading (especially acquiring) quite like Mars. So the chart is telling us that people are uncontrollably buying the idea that oil is scarce and the price is therefore rocketing. Fundamental supply and demand has its place but in 2007-2009/10 it is not the core denominator of prices.

  • The position of transiting Uranus. It is 30 degrees from Neptune and thus what Neptune touches it aspects too, so it is forming a 150 difficult aspect to the progressed Mars for example. Unexpected slightly explosive activity will result from this relationship.

  • The position of the progressed Ascendant in the chart. – approaching a conjunction with the 1891 chart’s Moon ( and thus a trine with the chart’s Jupiter too). Transiting Jupiter is opposing this – a double whammy. This puts the focus firmly on consumption.
  • Finally there is Chiron. Less studied, it is difficult to know whether oil is one of its facets, but it last made a triple conjunction with Neptune and Jupiter in 1945, so it is possible that it does reinforce the relationship between those two and is becoming more important as their 13 year cycle is also coming to a close in 2009. Chiron is highlighted in the 1891 chart- being in close conjunction with Mars.

Where are we now?
The recent spurt in prices in mid June was the result of Mars opposing Neptune. The current resurgence is obviously Iran inspired (a nice transiting Mars Saturn was in place last week to get that one going), and as we expected the dollar is shaky again, but we are getting so close to the eclipses now that any lunation such as the new moon on 3rd and the full moon on 18th will exert a volatile influence.

The situation is unlikely to improve much in the coming 6 weeks as Neptune is also at the degree of the August eclipse. Neptune and the 16th August lunar eclipse is after all conjunct the 1891 ascendant and trine its progressed Mars. But furthermore the 1st August solar eclipse cojoins the 1891 Sun, Mars, Chiron conjunction. And ( as if that wasn’t enough) the progressed moon in the chart is approaching a conjunction with the progressed Mars which will be exact in late August. Obviously it is all coming to a head. $ 150 by then – maybe more.

However, my view, is that once Saturn comes into aspect with Jupiter and Uranus in September through to December the escalation of the price will stop. Saturn in opposition to Uranus will quell the unexpected spurts in the price- but with Jupiter still in aspect to both there will be support on the downside. So I don’t expect big decreases in price this year either. Indeed the 1891 chart seems to confirm this. Whilst the Neptune transit continues, the transiting Uranus/Saturn/Jupiter configuration does not significantly impact the key chart degrees.

The exception is a Saturn return. Effective with natal Saturn in late 2008 and early 2009, it emphasises re-evaluation of the situation and the strategy. Good in the long run – hard in the short term. It was last in play in 1979.

2009 - More speculation
Any stability may be short lived however as in 2009 Jupiter will conjunct Neptune and Chiron in Aquarius only a couple of degrees from the ascendant. Speculation in pretty much everything money wise will be the name of the game from April 2009 through to December 2009/Janury 2010. At this point the progressed Ascendant conjunction with the moon will be exact. But even more the progressed Sun will approach the chart’s natal MC.

The April/ May 2009 date is flagged in most of the currency charts too. I am still not inclined to see the Jupiter Neptune Chiron conjunction in 2009 as being a specifically oil related event. However it is likely that commodities including oil will be demanded in response to increasing currency related inflation or possibly a major geo-political event at that time. So although in my view we have reached the top in purely oil market terms- we must consider this general speculation as increasing the price above its current levels in dollar terms ( although whether oil will rise further against precious metals, for example, is questionable I believe).

I am less confident in stating the level of prices - but the significance currently being attached to $200 leads me to suspect that just above or below this price will be the dollar peak in 2009 - possibly in May and, if not, in about December of that year.

Saturn returns to the progressed Saturn position at this time. Again the themes of 1979-80 will be reprised.

The conjunction of the progressed sun with the MC is likely to lead to OPEC or other significant global action by December 2009 or January 2010. This possibility is increased as Pluto will by then square transiting Saturn and both will make challenging aspects to the progressed MC. That is not a good sign generally although it is offset a little by an aspect to progressed Uranus ( the good fairy might just materialise and wave her wand to mitigate matters at the last minute ). For the whole global situation as a whole it might be tricky


2010 - the crisis point
Clearly the question is then how will the cardinal cross of 2010 affect the oil price? As mentioned, in the last couple of months of 2009 Saturn will square Pluto which is likely to create supply limitations. This aspect stays in place throughout most of 2010 which still does not suggest falling prices. Speculation is reducing but supply limitations are probably in place, a situation which is exacerbated in the summer of 2010 when Uranus and Jupiter conjoin to complete the cross – all of which are aspecting the progressed MC. Ugh. As I see this as probable opposition on the streets in many places, it is not a specifically oil related aspect- but nor does it suggest economic stability. In the 1891 chart the progressed sun is coming towards an opposition with progressed Neptune Pluto that year too. The world must confront its dependence on oil on credit and also on endless unsatisfactory consumption. The Universe loves it when a plan comes together!!

Originally I thought perhaps the coming crisis was for capitalism. I now think the next few years are a crisis of the consumer, credit and oil dependent society, but no necessarily capitalism itself.

Anyway as a result of this crisis, on balance, oil prices will probably be sustained through this period, but at less than their 2009 nominal peaks.

2011-12 a change in focus
2011 is the year when the world effectively changes then -as the progressed sun finally opposes the 1891 natal Pluto/Neptune conjunction. A lot of adjustment is shown in the chart – again tricky but potentially helpful in the longer term. I therefore expect the oil situation to begin to show recovery and some reduction in price by mid 2011, more a factor of general recession, new government policies and the resulting demand issues than any supply increases.

In 2012 the theme is even more adjustment and with Saturn conjoining the progressed Mars almost certainly oil price falls.

Indeed expect dramatic shifts in the market as technology improvements/developments arise as transiting Uranus sextiles the 1891 Pluto Neptune conjunction, trines the natal MC and continues to conjoin the progressed MC, while transiting Jupiter conjoins both the IC and the conjunction. Expect new oil sources/new energy/new methods. And with Uranus trining Mars Chiron, new car technology as well. Neptune trines the chart’s progressed Uranus too – So if you are still looking for speculative bubbles, by then they will be in that new technology not in the oil price.

We have already briefly discussed the longer term trend to 2030 and beyond.

Summary
So in summary, pure (non- speculative) peak oil prices operated last year. Now we just have increasing speculation. But dollar prices will rise again in 2009 and political constraints will lead to sustaining of the nominal price peak into mid 2010. By 2011-12 have your money out of oil and in other technologies.