2017
There is certainly enough to make the country worried in the
first 2 months of 2017, but that is to be expected. There is nothing that
stands out as a particular challenge and on balance things look good for the
country’s people and there appears little difficulty for the leadership.
The relatively ok position for the people continues in March
to May, although there may be some challenges regarding prices. There may also be some international matters
that come to the fore- perhaps but not conclusively in relation to the US . In
any case the outcome of these does not appear to be too serious.
June to August us also a relatively good period. The issues
that started in the last 3 months do continue but are not likely to last beyond
August. The only challenge may be relating to budgets and resources – however
with everything else relatively rosy it is likely that this won’t be a
particularly severe issue at this time either.
September and October are a bit more tricky- with some
difficulty relating to those budgets and in gaining support for changes to
policy. There may be once more some brief worries about the US policies.
November and December are a little more intense. The picture
for the people may be mixed- some good news some not so good. There is
potential for positive growth and advances in November ( including a positive
phase for the government) but December may see some economic challenges from
other parties ( possibly the US).
January and February 2018 are mixed. There is some minor
hardship but nothing significant. A time of adjustments but not difficulties.
March to May sees a focus on the country and a divergence
between the government and the people. The end of the period in particular may
ring some surprises in this regard.
However there are also positive signs of change and
development so there is good news too.
It may mark a turning point
economically. Expect the questions of debt, house prices and commodities to be key
now.
June to August is once again mixed. There are further
questions regarding debt etc. but the people are more relaxed and the focus
moves away from the leadership.
September and October sees the people somewhat unsettled and
perhaps feeling deceived in some way. There could be adjustments to
communications and to rates. Financial
issues continue to raise budget questions but not to be too challenging.
November and December are the most interesting months of the
whole period so far. There are some key moments where major economic decisions
must be made and this brings some challenges for the leadership – although they
are able to push forward with plans despite objections in December.
There is a continued sense that the people are not in
possession of all the facts. But once again the scenario is not all bad – some
economic pressures have abated and there is opportunity to grow.
January and February 2019 is another mixed time, when there
are some challenges but on balance the economic position looks positive.
Some economic inertia is possible now which puts a break on
some freedoms but there is still sufficient motivation to continue. Pricing
continues to be a trade issue and there may be some short term inflationary
pressures.
March to June is once again mixed, but although there is
some additional ( financial ) discipline required for the people the overall
picture is still bright. Indeed there is good news for the budget/resources
situation.
July to September continues this mixed theme. And perhaps
there is some re-evaluation of the good news. But on balance there does not
seem much to worry about.
October should be election time. There is an absence of
focus on the government at this time which is rather odd. There is some
surprising/perhaps even shocking news but there is no indication that this is
election related. The conclusion must be that the economic position in the
country relative to elsewhere is sufficiently sound as to make re-election almost
a certainty.
December is a month where there is a big focus on budgets,
debt and trade but having said that not a lot is likely to happen in the
country . There may be some rate adjustments, but no big surprises.
2020
Given what we have seen time and time again across our
forecasts for 2020, the big surprise here is that Canada seems mostly to be one
step away from all the action. There is some pressure on the people but if
anything this just makes the stability more noticeable.
Initially in January there is another period where there is
a big turning point for the government, and by February there are some big
changes in place which affect debt /inflation etc but nothing looks
unmanageable.
March to July is interesting. There is a permanent long term
change in the country’s economic prospects, although it is much too early to
work out what the impact of this will be it is very long term and relates back
to pre the post WWII period.
There are a lot of surprising and exciting developments now
which for the most part are positive. There are some communication difficulties
or possibly rate changes that are more challenging but these appear small in
relation to other matters elsewhere.
August and September are actually relatively quiet months
where there are few developments in the country, though this might make the
people somewhat agitated.
October and November see more of a focus on the government
again. There is some disconnect between the people and the leadership though it
is brief and although there may be economic and policy compromises to be made
by the leadership due to the environment there overall picture is good with big
steps forward being made as events on balance seem to favour the country.
December sees any disconnect between people and
leadership evaporate as the broader environment changes but Canada is
relatively sheltered.
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