There are few countries so immediately affected by the new
US administration than poor Mexico. Regardless of what happens in the rest of
the world, and regardless of how much of a wall gets built we can be sure that
Mexico will be affected by new policies. The only question is when and by how
much?
2017
There is little to be said about January and February 2017
as we are already half way through the latter and we know the events of late
January well. We know that is Trump gets his way the wall is imminent, and we
know that the Mexican president is not impressed after cancelling the trip north.
And the fact that this has probably strengthened the Mexican leadership is also
not much of a surprise.
March to May is likely to see more surprises from the
leadership probably in response to US policy. The subject of restrictions on
the people also continues to be a key factor. There is also continued confusion
over the economic impact.
There may also be a brief spell of severe difficulty for the
people, perhaps relating to the drug cartels or other threats.
This is not long lasting, however and June to August sees a
shift in emphasis for the people.
However confusion dominates both economically and in terms of direction.
There may be upsets to industry and other economic activity
but the leadership continues strong.
September and October see much of the above mood continuing.
But there is a lot more going on in terms of international relations. The leadership may be outspoken and
certainly not acquiescent.
November and December are months of more drama, likely on an
international field. Indeed there
appears to be a lot going on now in terms of policy and other decisions. Not
all of the government’s actions are acceptable to the people and the people are
likely to be the dominant force now.
January and February 2018 are also months when the country
and its people are in focus. There is some indication that the people are
unsettled and perhaps rebellious and the issue of restraint ( perhaps relating
to the wall) is important. Relations with other nations ( presumably the US)
remain unstable.
March to May sees the people at least somewhat calmer. The
focus seems mainly on economic matters.
Although the general unsettled feeling is reducing there is
still a sense of it at least in the
early part of the period. Later things become more dynamic and the mood changes
to one of aggression in some places. At a guess there may be some border
confrontation now.
June to August us a good deal calmer. There is still focus
on matters which seem to pertain to the wall but there is less pressure on the
people. However the time is characterised by more pressure for the leadership due
presumably to the scheduled elections. I’m not seeing radical shifts in the
leadership though- and anyway we know Nieto is not eligible for re-election. I
think we can expect a smooth transition and not a radical change of political
direction.
September and October see a return to focus on those economic
matters, but also more unsettled conditions which probably relate to the border
again but might also relate to the drug trade. However the whole of the second
half of the year seems less disruptive than the first half.
November and December are similar to the last few months ,
but there is far more unsettled feeling economically/ in the main industries
again- more like the early part of the year. However the emphasis on cross
border issues seems to have abated somewhat by the year end.
Probably any disruption in industry etc will be for the long
term good now as technological changes are favoured.
March to June, however, seems to be much much trickier.
International ( border?) issues now resurface affecting the people and putting them at odds with the
leadership. There may be a short period where brutal treatment of some is
possible – alternatively debt issues cause short term hardship. It is an
interesting period when there are many developments and some elements of the
population are very disrupted or disruptive.
July to September sees a continuation of this disruptive
mood, but otherwise it is an uneventful period when there are adjustments to
political and economic policy but no radical changes. Indeed it is a time when
economic statistics and availability of resources is fluctuating so no one
trend dominates.
October and November continue this focus on economic matters
including statistics and resources.
The government is seen in a good light in a time when events
are moving fast and there are opportunities to be grasped.
However there is a risk of significant conflict for the
people around late November/early December.
December itself is a relatively calm month when some things
settle down a bit, though there is a major turning point now in relation to the
external image of the country and its freedoms – it appears positive for the
people, less so for the leadership.
2020
January and February 2020 become more intense again. There
is a lot of focus on international relations and the government and economic stability.
All of which appears very challenging. This is a critical time for the country.
However the people are not highlighted so this suggests
international events are impacting the bigger picture but not the day to day
lives.
March to July however sees that change- perhaps as the
impact of events starts to trickle down. The situation for the government seems
to be increasingly relating to economic matters ( major international funds
flows are highlighted). The people are
more restless, and there is a shift in focus from the government to the
international arena for them. It looks
like a period of considerable drama.
For the people at least things seem to settle down again by
August. But the government has to contend with the ongoing situation.
This comes to a peak in October/November. But interestingly
despite all the challenges there are opportunities still to be had.
Independence and adaptability are virtues at this time.
But, whereas many countries show the events moderating by
December and a new environment forming, this is not the case with Mexico. While
there is a new environment for sure this is one of opposition or significant shifts
in trade. It looks to be an interesting time but we won’t have a good handle on
how this will play out in practice until 2019 at least.
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