The currency had, after the first few weeks, a moderately good year versus most
currencies, until the last quarter when it suffered due to the Trump related
dollar rise.
2017
2017 starts with a bit of a mixed bag. Investors are looking
for interest rates now and they aren’t finding them in the yen. There are still
surprises and an unsettled picture in the run up to Trump’s inauguration, so
little reason to switch track yet. Values are challenged due to uncertainty
throughout January and February.
The position doesn’t seem to improve in March and April.
Indeed there are signs that the value of the currency will be depressed at this
time. There is no sense of major collapse however there will be more
volatility. A change of direction is likely in April.
June and July sees
more volatility, caused by surprising events, increasing. But no real increase
in value.
Once more there could be a swing in sentiment at the latter
end of the 2 months.
August to October continues the mood of the summer, but now
there is likely to be more investor activity.
Although the underlying trend is still negative there may
well be some movements on the upside in September and October as there is a
tendency for small positives to be overdone.
November and December continue the main theme of the year
however, with less positive sentiment and more volatility.
January and February 2018 are key months. There is less
concern about the current currency value and more about the long term picture.
It is not so much value that is depressed now as the conditions surrounding the
currency- changes in management or structure are likely. Debt concerns
dominate.
March and April don’t really bring much new to that party,
perhaps marginally more volatility again.
May to July is mainly stable but is likely to include a
significant surprise or shock around the end of May, leading to a one off shift
in values. Not massive but noteworthy.
August to October is mainly similar to March and April but
with added disruptive conditions towards the end of the period. I would not rule out an increase in value at
that time. However before then there are some real challenges for the central
bank and possibly a rate change.
November and December are generally less eventful and there
is a bit of a back to basics mood with buying of the currency more busy.
January and February 2019 for the most part are positive –
there is a rosy hue to investor perspectives which could lead to over buying.
There are, however operational issues
with the currency still..
March and April is a complex period. Major underlying (
global or structural)factors are coming into play now. One again investors are
vulnerable to big shocks.
Nevertheless there are some stabilising factors and even
some optimism in some quarters.
May to July is a bit of mixed bag . There is investor optimism
in the currency despite the surrounding
conditions.
Refinancing and repackaging are important in preventing
currency falls as are larger than usual rate movements. The latter part of the period is one of
adjustment but high levels of currency trade.
August to November sees a bit of a change of sentiment,
perhaps triggered by other currency issues.
Generally it is a tricky period where trading is disjointed
except perhaps in November when the bigger picture gets clearer and investors
make large trades.
December is curiously calm in comparison, although there is
still a lot of work for the central bank in ensuring confidence is maintained.
2020 is a year of big currency movements.
January 2020 sees drama for currencies in general, but
possibly some upside for Yen investors.
February is more difficult for them, with debt restructuring
and interest rate changes and major action by the central bank.
March to June sees this escalate. And investor activity
freeze. There is a lack of confidence in trading and perhaps in another major
currency.
July to September sees little change in these factors.
Although perhaps there is more chance to shift positions and capitalise on the
restructurings etc.
October and November sees the situation escalate and some
clearing of the decks. Interest rate changes are favourable and despite the
problems with global currency trades in general there are upsides for the
central bank.
Although December is disruptive and critical, there is a
major reset for investors and the start of a new environment.
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