Of course Pakistan’s
political and economic problems are well known, and there is nothing at
the moment to suggest that they will improve in the timescale we are looking
at. And indeed the characteristics of the country’s independence chart means it
is not ever going to be a bowl of cherries.
So the only question really is, will anything really dramatic happen
during these 4 years that might radically shift the position either to a better
one or, indeed cause either internal or cross border issues to deteriorate?
Actually we are coming to the end of one phase that has
lasted from early 2013, and are moving into another that takes us to 2020.
2017
January and February 2017 are therefore transition months
where not much will be different from the latter part of 2016 but if anything thee will be a bit of a lull.
There may be some protests though as there is a likelihood of underhand
behaviour.
March to May, however look more problematic. It is a
difficult time for the people in general. Not only are the people faced with
direct threats but there seems to be an increase in behind-the -scenes brutality. Indeed, what I might in other cases see as
positive opportunity, looks here as if it may be just an upscaling of less
pleasant activity.
June to August may be marginally better. That is not to say
the problems go away, merely that they are moderated slightly, or perhaps
targeted towards other nations rather than internally. There are few big shocks
however and ironically it is actually a time when there are some indicators
that constructive changes could be made; it just doesn’t look on balance like
they will be
September to November sees the problems create dissent
between the leadership and the people. There are some shocks to be expected
now. However some of the worst problems
with terrorism etc are likely to be reduced slightly now.
December indicates a long term, one off, change of mood.,
actually suggesting more freedoms and a more international outlook. However
there is also a risk that this could intensify religious feeling. It is also a
month when international matters come to the fore again, where disputes may
escalate quickly and there may be some sort of crackdown on activity.
2018
2018 looks to be a year when unfortunately violence could
escalate further. Even the government has got a more than usual militant mood
on it. I expect this to bring the country into the global eye more than
recently.
Things start to get interesting almost immediately as there
is a change of sentiment at government level, bringing to an end the emphasis
of the last 30 years. This is interesting as it suggests there may be a shift
away from the main parties of the past come the elections.
There is, however, still evidence that the hidden activity
mentioned in 2017 is continuing. There does not seem to be any noticeable improvement economically and there may be
more instability for the people.
Also likely is a step up in disagreements with other
nations, although at this stage they are likely to be just that- differences of
opinion.
The period April to June continues this there. Plus, this
period should if things are as expected, see elections. Once more there is
indication of a long term shift generally, though there is no clear indication
of a radical change of leader, there is indication of weakening of power.
July to September actually indicate that there is some sort
of change as the people, as a whole,
become more cooperative and prepared to adopt government initiatives.
However there is still the ongoing issue of international
matters to content with particularly in September.
Although this passes, there are ramifications throughout the
last quarter. The deceptive element that characterised 2017-18 continues but is
now accompanied by the potential for more surprise action ( which may include
terrorism or military stance).
Early November is a particularly vulnerable time.
2019
The good thing about 2019 is that it seems to be
characterised by sensible government pronouncements.
However, even from the first quarter it is not a year when
much headway can be made, as it is also characterised by adjustment at every
level. The first three months may also see a sudden change of leader. Once
again the potential for terrorism or other brutal acts is magnified in these
first months of 2019.
April to July as yet another indicator of a long term
changing dynamic. This time it may relate more to relations with others.
The rest of 2019 is dominated by sudden shocks or
destabilising influences that tend to undermine the constitutional foundations
of a country.
However there are also some moderating influences now and
only the end of July looks noticeably tough ( relative to the norm).
August to November
see more of the mood of adjustment , this time with the people adjusting
to the new circumstances.
In some ways it is a better period, but the potential for
shocks that destabilise the country hasn’t gone away. Of course these might be
the indirect consequence of financial events elsewhere.
December is similar to the preceding months, except that
there may now be an increase in the difficulties for the leadership in
implementing matters.
It is a very confusing period for the people in general,
where they feel under a cloud and are being pulled in two directions.
January and February 2020 see the people focus on the
outside world but the outcome is totally unclear. Things are tough for the
people who still feel under a cloud, and there is a lot of instability for the
leadership.
There is a sense that things are not entirely controllable.
The situation does not really let up in March to June,
indeed external relations may be become more polarised. The people are still
unable to see a clear way forward, and
the government may also be a bit lost in the swamp now. This might even be
literal in that floods are also a possibility of this indicator.
And all of this means that again there is potential for the
country’s foundations to be rocked further.
The background conditions continue for the next few months.
July to October sees the people more coherent but far less
compliant- there may be protests. The situation with external nations is no
better- indeed it is quite dark.
November and early December stand out as a period when
everything is coming to a head.
By the end of December then sees the people become more
fired up and dissatisfaction with the leadership means that active conflict
becomes more likely internally
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