Sunday, 31 August 2008

The buck stops here: August 2008 errors and successes


I thought I could be forgiven for feeling a little dejected as August drew to a close. No sooner had I posted my forecasts for the major currencies and oil than commodities took a dip and the dollar gained in strength. I did not expect this to happen so soon or so much.

What to do? Edit my posts perhaps? Or select only the good forecasts and ignore the dollar (I could perhaps refer to it as “trivial in the general scheme of things!”), Blame someone else? “It’s a conspiracy, right?”

However, I’m not a politician not a corporate clone, I am more than happy to confront my errors, understand them and ensure that they don’t happen again.

And indeed once I consulted the dollar chart I could see what I missed and when I read my posts, the only significantly bad forecast I made was the dollar. Now obviously getting the dollar wrong can’t be taken lightly, especially if one is trading. However, I wouldn’t trade the dollar on a less than three month basis on the information from these very long term forecasts, so even that can’t be considered a disaster, just a symptom of the nature of the forecasts.

Anyway, because the upshot of all this was a review of all my forecasts, I thought a recap might be helpful to see how I did on each forecast, and not just the one that seemed to stand out. So here we go:

From my original background post:
“March 2008 will not see the end of these opportunistic interventions. The aspect continues through May/June and is again resurrected later in October/November. That in itself should indicate that we are not out of the woods, that we won’t be out of the woods by the end of the year, but also, more importantly, that 2008 is not likely to be the year when the whole system comes crashing down

And in late 2008, we will see a shift. Even slow old Saturn, currently re-working the credit crunch analysis, has to move on eventually. And in this case he moves on, first, to form a nice stable and comfortable trine with Jupiter. This initially happens in September…..”

The only error in this is the timing, with the slight optimism that has been engendered in some people by the idea that the US is indeed coming out of the woods.

Next let’s review my oil forecast

I said:
“Even taking into account supply issues and other fears, this is clearly rampant speculation.” ……………..Fundamental supply and demand has its place but in 2007-2009/10 it is not the core denominator of prices.

The recent spurt in prices in mid June was the result of Mars opposing Neptune. ……………….but we are getting so close to the eclipses now that any lunation such as the new moon on 3rd and the full moon on 18th will exert a volatile influence.

The situation is unlikely to improve much in the coming 6 weeks as Neptune is also at the degree of the August eclipse……. Obviously it is all coming to a head. $ 150 by then – maybe more.

However, my view, is that once Saturn comes into aspect with Jupiter and Uranus in September through to December the escalation of the price will stop. Saturn in opposition to Uranus will quell the unexpected spurts in the price- but with Jupiter still in aspect to both there will be support on the downside. So I don’t expect big decreases in price this year either."

Again my timing is a bit out. We can see why if we look at the US forecast where I said:

"The difference however, is that as far as the credit crisis is concerned, things have moved on and as Saturn moves away from 4 degrees the current conditions will draw to a close. Now if I were to see the next two months as being the end of all the pressure on the dollar I would conclude that things would indeed settle down post August and the dollar would at least partially recover””

So far so good, but I then said..

“However, whilst Saturn does move away by September, the Pluto aspects remain for some time to come.

The conclusion therefore, is that the problem will move away from the pure financial situation and into one or other or both of a general economic problem and a broader derivatives problem.
…… It is interesting that while the US$ chart does not get much respite this summer, the Fed chart gets a bit.. ……."

Still not bad

“So we can expect the dollar to suffer not just against oil but against other currencies again in the next couple of months, for the Fed to do little and for recessionary data to increase”

Completely wrong. I should have double checked; given my conclusions about the Fed chart I should have revisited the dollar. In fact, doing so now, I find that Jupiter retrograding through Capricorn makes a sextile to a progressed conjunction of Jupiter, Sun and Mercury throughout August. This suggests positive intervention and should have been a pointer that the dollar was due for a reversal for August and September, the months during which the sextile has an effect.


This would then take us into the latter part of the year when I was expecting more stability anyway. Missing the Jupiter aspect meant I was 6 weeks out in my forecast. This can easily happen when looking at the longer term and focusing on the planets from Saturn out that move more slowly. Accuracy to the nearest month requires consideration of all Jupiter aspects as well as the trends of Mars and the Sun at least.

So there we are. I missed a key factor in the dollar which contributed to the oil timing error as well, although the magnitude of the oil moevment still remains a surprise to me.

However if we take the dollar out of the equation, elsewhere I did not do so badly at all.

For Sterling and the UK I said:





“It would be good to believe recent suggestions that the worst of the credit crunch may be over. Perhaps it is, in the form it has taken to date. However it is difficult to see an end to the story for any of the major currencies and Sterling in particular. Challenges to the Bank of England seem set to continue throughout the rest of the year and the spectre of inflation is definitely not going away.

We have seen some respite in last couple of months, but it doesn’t look like it will last. As Saturn moves forward again to its position of September 2007 and February 2008, the concerns of those months will resurface. We will see things starting to unravel again later in June and in July. Although at a global level the impetus from this will come from America and possibly elsewhere, the falling house price situation in the UK itself will create its own pressures at this time.

………………………..

The eclipses on 1st and 16th August are likely to trigger further events. The 16th August eclipse corresponds with the Neptune Saturn configuration. We will really know how bad it is going to be by then. Answer- very bad indeed. We will have statistics that show a year of price falls and no potential for the trend to reverse.”

Can’t quibble with that – Sterling has fallen relative to more than the dollar and the increasing consensus is that things are bad.

For the Euro I said

“What is notable when we look at the Euro chart is that, after some hard aspects …..in the first 3 years, …….. the transits and progressions were, on balance, relatively benign. That is changing in 2008. Pluto is currently at around 0 degrees of Capricorn. Not quite conjunct the Euro IC or square its Ascendant, but close. Saturn is also strengthening its effect at the moment – although that should improve in the coming months.

The picture for March to June has been mixed. Clearly against the dollar and gold things there has been strength, but against oil almost none. It seems that the price of oil is starting to undermining the fundamentals of the region and that this is starting to have an impact on the perceived worth of the currency……………………

The mixed picture continues into June and July. Jupiter in sextile with the Euro’s Jupiter and transiting Uranus, by itself, is positive, though not stable, but Jupiter is also conjoining the Euros’ progressed sun and squaring its Mars. This suggests disputes and also more volatility (and gains?) against the dollar. However there is a potentially tricky time in August where Saturn squares the Euro’s Pluto, suggesting some tendency to undermine its strength again.

Furthermore, the August Eclipse at 24 degrees Leo, with Neptune there, picks up the Euro’s North Node. People are definitely going to question the raison d’etre of this currency this summer. No doubt it will once again be blamed for problems totally outside its control. However the aspect does not directly challenge the chart’s planets and it is likely that all that results is uncertainty, rather than any policy, or even significant value, changes”

A mixed bag. The dollar’s rise has tended to make us think the Euro has suffered, but in overall terms it is precisely as I described: mixed, a rise vs. sterling, overall flat vs swiss franc, rising then falling to its early June value vs the Yen etc.

My Yen forecast was prepared later and the only relevant part is:
“There is evidence of speculative volatility in the yen chart around the eclipse time, with Neptune quincunx the progressed Jupiter and Uranus an Neptune sextiling Neptune and trining Venus and Jupiter suggests a departure from fundamental value which is likely to continue over the next couple of years.”

The major currency movements did take place around the time of the eclipses so this is on track.

Forecasts for the Renminbi have to be long term as its revaluation is being actively managed.I said

“A reasonable question is therefore, if the currency has just had a Saturn return why does the Renminbi still have apparent strength ….. The answer is that Saturn in the chart is trine a Jupiter Mars conjunction. The real value would have gone much higher by now if the currency was free floating but it is not – Saturn is and has been holding it in check”

I also said

The currency ……. is also having a Jupiter return, as well as having had a progressed sun sextile sun. All of which are positive signs. …………………However not everything is positive. Jupiter is also about to square the currency’s Neptune and will be within orb until November. This is inflationary. Finally Pluto is making its final opposition to the Renminbi Uranus, indicating the end of the pattern of change of the last three years or so.

During August Saturn will go on to square the chart’s Sun and Moon (and possible conjoin its ascendant – based on a midnight start time). This coincides with the Olympics and suggests some financial challenges coinciding with those. However these are likely to be minor disruptions rather than any major problem."

The Renminbi did fall briefly vs. dollar from late July to around 18 August, although there does not seem to have been any Olympics connection, rather just a catch up against the dollars rise. The moving average continues to show it strengthen vs the dollar, if we ignore an overshoot and recovery on 26th -28th August. Pretty much what was predicted.

So that’s our currency forecasts. What about the stock markets?

For the Dow, I said:

“…………..and now stands at around only 11,500 its value two years ago…….

So what about the upcoming eclipses? Do they affect the chart? The solar eclipse doesn’t really but the Lunar eclipse on 16th August is square the Dow Venus and widely aspecting progressed Jupiter. It also, to a lesser extent, aspects the Dow Mercury and progressed Sun. All this throws the market into the spotlight and asks questions about real value. Expect more trading and re-pricing of the index companies in the run up to this date- though by itself the aspect does not really say what will happen to the overall index value. However a major rise is not anticipated – Jupiter returns to its position in February – the low up until the last couple of weeks. Still, another big fall doesn’t look to be on the cards at the moment either”

Since we are currently back at about 11,500, despite a lot of volatility, this appears to have been correct.

The Nasdaq forecast I did not post until 28 July, (although it was mainly prepared a week or so before)

“The solar eclipse is actually trine both the Nasdaq Mars and MC as well. So a spot of hyperactive trading is probably in order next week, with Saturn probably depressing the price. The fact that Saturn then squares Mars indicates far less trading in early August. But then we have that lunar eclipse. It is also sextile the Moon (which is within a degree of Mercury in the Dow chart ………………………I expect there will be a shift at this time – perhaps in favour of Nasdaq stocks or just focusing on the make up of the index and the fact that some huge losses in some sectors have been offset by gains elsewhere. I suspect a bubble will start to form in certain sub-sectors”

The Nasdaq did indeed rise until 16th August, and remains up on the month, and though I have not investigated whether my comments on its components were correct, I am pretty happy with this outcome too.

I did not see all of the dire UK economic situation being reflected in the market.

"Currently there are two influences at play. On the one hand Uranus is transiting the FTSE Mars increasing volatility- Mars is natally in the 7th house of partners and relationships – it is not surprising that the index is tracking the US at present. A fact substantiated further by the progressed Ascendant opposing the natal Sun during this time. On the other hand Saturn, having left its square with the progressed Sun and Jupiter is now sextiling the natal Moon, opposing the progressed Moon , is about to conjoin Pluto and then in August will oppose progressed Jupiter.
Again this is a busy time.

The solar eclipse of 1 August is within one degree of the chart’s Saturn. There does seem to be a feeling that the bottom has been reached in banking stocks at least. The aspects does suggest a time of re-evaluation and switching sectors. However it should be borne in mind that the UK economic forecast was not good- by all means take advantage of short term shifts, but beware of the long term trends.

The lunar eclipse of 16th August does not significantly affect this chart. The FTSE Uranus is at 27 Leo but this has already been activated for some months and the eclipse at 24 degrees should not affect it much more.

Negative news is likely to put a halt to things those by the end of the month when Saturn squares the FTSE MC and so trading is likely to be much more subdued by the end of August and into September.”

The last paragraph certainly reflects the news in the last week, if not the market direction. The market has risen slightly (1%) over the month and this is indeed a reflection of sector shifting including rises then fall backs in banking stocks. Again I‘m happy with this one.

For the Shanghai index I asked “Can we put the gas back in?” And said

Now, in late July 2008, Pluto is making its final aspect to the Sun and the progressed Sun is leaving Neptune, suggesting this particular bubble will not re-inflate. However with Jupiter transiting that progressed Sun there maybe some brief rallies now and when it returns to this position in October.

The eclipse on 1st August is close to the IC and quincunx the chart’s conjunction of Venus Mercury and Uranus. We might have reached a bottom.

The eclipse on 16th August is accompanied by Saturn trining this conjunction, further suggesting that we will have seen the worst of the downward trend by then. The eclipse is trine progressed Mercury and square progressed Mars, suggesting fluctuations in trading however, which is not surprising given that there is no major upward trend forecast for a while and the fact that the Olympics will disrupt everything in the country for a few weeks.”

The index continued to fall into the first week of August, then recovered a little before eclipse of 16th, and has been more or less flat since. Another success. Although in this case we will have to wait longer to see whether the broader forecast is correct.

I also looked at the Hang Seng but this was not posted until 30th July and I said:

"The current situation does not show much improvement. Uranus is retrograding now and will transit the Sun again in September and again in early 2009, Pluto will return to its opposition with Mars in November and Saturn has not finished its damage yet it will transit progressed Uranus, Pluto and the progressed Sun before the year is out.

What about the upcoming eclipses? It would be nice to say that the chart is not affected. And as we are just 4 days away it is unlikely that much damage can happen. But the eclipse on 1st August is on the chart’s Sun. It is hopefully safe to say that that has already manifested itself in the decline in the index and specifically in the main bank components; however it is not exactly an uplifting configuration. The 16th August eclipse is square the chart’s Jupiter which is less clear- this rather dramatic aspect may explain the recent positive reversal since mid July. The overall expectation though is for no major change in direction for the next few months."

The Hang Seng actually fell in August from 22500 to 20500 until after the eclipse of 16th and though the last week has seen a recovery, it remains at 21000, below its July 30 level. Yet another success, although again I wait with interest the next few months.

Finally the Nikkei. I did not post this until 10th August so we are not looking at anything like long enough a time period, but I said

“At the moment we also have a Saturn effect – it is transiting the progressed MC, once more depressing prices. However we also have that delightful little animal, the Neptune/Mars configuration in play. Progressed Mars at 24 Gemini is being activated by Neptune- this is liable to provide flights of fancy that this market is the place to be. The eclipse next Friday 16th August triggers this point, so there may be a rally around or just past that date as Saturn finally moves on.”

The index fell to 20th August, since when it has seen a small upturn

There is, in the background an approaching Jupiter ascendant progressed trine. Definitely a positive sign. And with Jupiter retrograding to station on the Moon and IC and square the Neptune/Ascendant at the end of August and through September, we something of a consolidation of a turning point going on here. However it is as if things can’t quite get off the ground – Neptune in quincunx the progressed Sun and Saturn square Mercury in October, there are difficulties, perhaps a mix of news that makes people still nervous about the index."

There has certainly been an improvement in recent days, due to government promised stimulus, but we will have to wait to see whether the prediction proves to be the case or whether the uplift continues unabated.

So there we are. Why I felt depressed about the dollar, I don’t know, it was the only error out of over 12 forecasts. I just hope I continue with this level of success!!

My next post will also be a recap. But of a different type. I want to look ahead again, but now taking all the individual forecasts and the background information and putting it all back together to see if we can deduce what will really happen globally over the next four years, and where if any we should be putting our long term funds.

Friday, 29 August 2008

Hong Kong Dollar - 2008-2012


Torn between two lovers?
Back to the schedule and, to complete the set, an analysis of the Hong Kong dollar. Now, there are those who might argue that looking at the HK$ is a waste of time since it has effectively been pegged to the US$ since 1983. They may have a point, but then again one may uncover some interesting information in the most unlikely places.

Furthermore there are those who think that the time might come when the HK$ might be abolished and merged with the Renminbi. See
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/hans_parisis/Hong_Kong_Dollar_Float/2008/02/11/108664.html

“Jim Rogers was right when he said last November that the Hong Kong dollar should disappear as soon as the Chinese currency, the yuan (also known as the renminbi) becomes convertible. "If I were the Hong Kong government, I would abolish the Hong Kong dollar. There's no reason for the Hong Kong dollar. It's a historical anomaly and I don't know why it exists anymore." ”

This is more like it. Perhaps we can see how and when this will happen?

As usual we have the same “pick a chart” issues. And in this case we have dates but definitely no times. I have made a rectification which can only be described as rough. Still, it results in a connection between the charts for the designation of the HK$ on 9th November 1935 and the Currency Ordinance of the 6 December 1935. It comes with a big caveat emptor but let’s run with it anyway.

Unsurprisingly the chart has Saturn at 3-4 degrees Pisces, opposite the US$ ascendant and the Renminbi Saturn of course (naagh, astrology is a load of rubbish, right?). I have set the ascendant for the same degree. We thus know that Saturn has been transiting opposite the chart’s Saturn and Ascendant this year. Progressed Mars is also close to progressed Saturn just past this ascendant indicating that the HK$, even more so than the Renminbi has been significantly undervalued as a result of the dollar peg and the depreciation of the dollar. In fact with the double effect of Saturn and the Ascendant it seems the most undervalued of all. Some of the effect is lifting now as Saturn moves on, but we should keep in mind what this double effect is trying to tell us.

The recent eclipse has had only a limited impact on the currency – Saturn’s declining influence has had more, and an even greater impact has been Jupiter retrograding through Capricorn, conjoining the node, sextiling the chart’s Sun and trining its Neptune. I missed this when looking at the dollar as we will see in a coming review post, it indicates somebody has been pumping in liquidity in the last month or so ….

This liquidity effect will last through September. Although there may be some dollar related fall back when compared to the last few weeks. But with Pluto squaring Venus and sextiling Mercury, people are seriously re- evaluating this pegged currency at the moment.

In October there is an interesting Saturn transit of the HK$ Neptune which suggests some limitation of the money supply. But as for many of the other financial indices we have looked at, the Saturn/Uranus/Jupiter configuration of October-November makes only limited impact.

A little more happens in December. Pluto sextiles Jupiter and trines Uranus. This suggests a growing speculative demand for the currency. Maybe there is a wish it would float free, but of course it can’t. The Saturn/Uranus opposition squares the progressed Venus and this is further activated by the progressed Moon. And transiting Jupiter trines Venus and opposes Pluto. This definitely suggests the movement of significant quantities of wealth. Maybe people will start to accumulate it in anticipation of future changes? Obviously that implies a whole raft of issues about the US$ too…………..

2009
The theme continues into January, enhanced further by Jupiter conjoining the progressed Sun and sextiling Jupiter. Somewhere, somehow, someone is intervening again. This could be local Chinese government or it could be the Fed and Co. When we do our recap and put all the pieces together in my next post, we will see how this fits with what is happening in the US at that time.

February indicators are that funds are free flowing with Neptune sextile the progressed Moon. March and April have Pluto, now at 3 degrees Capricorn, sextile the HK$ Saturn and trine its Uranus. More pressure to float? Saturn continues to transit Neptune, and square Jupiter. There are obstacles still, but a build up of pressure.

Next, of course, we have the Neptune/Jupiter/Chiron conjunction of April – June. This is on the progressed MC of the HKS$ chart. Now as I mentioned this is a rough and ready rectification. However, as it happens, the 6 December 1935 chart’s progressed Sun is also at the same degree. Mmm, I’m convinced.

But is this really a positive?- Neptune often means weakness as well as inflation. If there is a weakening of the dollar due to monetary inflation, then the HK$, still pegged will follow, However together with the balance of other aspects for the period I am convinced this will also increase demand for the HK$ - whether in the long run these factors will be good for the local economy is another question.

Anyway, it is not just the progressed MC that is affected. The conjunction is sextile the moon and trine Mercury, and all this is activated further by a sextile to the progressed Moon. There is also a progressed Neptune Jupiter square in the HK$ chart, which will be resonating to the Neptune conjunction.. Now this is a very slow moving aspect, and indeed it is in orb since at least 2004, and doesn’t perfect until around 2012, but its significance when combined with the other information cannot be ignored.

So obviously nothing will happen at all……

…. or perhaps we really have a big speculation involving this currency.

While the conjunction retrogrades and the effect weakens, though does not disappear, Pluto, in July conjoins the progressed Moon and trines Uranus which continues the theme of December/ January.

September does not really suggest new trends, though Jupiter is conjunct the chart’s Mercury, increasing information flows and opening up new channels. October’s progressed Moon sextile Saturn and trine Uranus just takes up the baton already carried by Pluto and Jupiter. However there is some negativity this month as Saturn transits Venus so perhaps people question the efficacy of their strategy at this time.

November is characterised by a change of emphasis with Saturn reaching Libra and sextiling Jupiter, trining the progressed Sun and making a more tricky aspect to Saturn. On balance this suggests stability rather than anything else. Dull!

In December Pluto is again sextile Saturn and trine Uranus and the Neptune conjunction returns, albeit not so close to the MC as in May. But it is clear that the concerns of earlier in the year return at this time, it is likely that once again there is a sign of an excess of money and maybe creeping accumulation of the currency.

2010
In the background there is evidence we are reaching a critical point for the currency. The progressed Ascendant is approaching a conjunction with the natal ascendant. A major turning point in the life cycle.

What we are seeing globally, of course, by this time, is the closing in of the Cardinal cross. By January Saturn reaches 4 degrees Libra in square with Pluto giving a taster of later on in the year.

In the case of the HK$, Pluto is making a helpful sextile to the ascendant and trine to Uranus, But Saturn is making quincunxes. There are definitely obstacles to the changes demanded by Pluto. However Jupiter transits the Ascendant this month, which is likely to cancel out the Saturn effect. Expect loosening of conditions, which will continue in February as Jupiter then transits the progressed Mars/Saturn conjunction. But the key turning points are still in the future.

Neptune conjoining the progressed MC and sextiling the Moon again, again suggests more monetary inflation, more dollar weakness and more potential speculation in the HK currency. In March transiting Jupiter squares the MC and natal Jupiter, trines the Sun and opposes Neptune, reinforcing the effect of any speculation. With these planets bubbles often result. What would you like to buy, just the currency or maybe some property or even some shares perhaps?

Saturn conjoining Venus again in April subdues things though. Temporarily. By May, Uranus and Jupiter are opposing Venus and creating significant amounts of volatility.

Neptune continues to conjoin the MC sextile Moon and trine Mercury through the summer.
July and August are the peak of the Cardinal cross. Pluto encouraging change, Saturn, rejecting it and Uranus/Jupiter gently shaking the tree. In most contexts Uranus and Jupiter at this time will be doing some quite vigorous shaking, But here, I say gently, as they only form a semi sextile aspect to the chart Ascendant/Saturn and Uranus. Not enough to create major change, but enough to gently tip the see-saw.

Is there more evidence of such a tipping point? There is. Progressed Mercury in the HK$ chart goes retrograde at this time for the first time since the currency’s formation.

September seems to be a time of adjustment as Saturn quincunxes the Saturn/Mars progression, but it stabilizes quickly as Saturn sextiles the MC in October, although when Jupiter is square Venus in November, there might be a little too much self congratulation.

December ends the year in much the same mode as it has gone on. With huge force for change as Pluto sextiles the Ascendant and Jupiter/Uranus trine Pluto.

2011
The power of the changes in process does not let up in early 2011. All the major aspects of Pluto and Neptune are still in place. February and March mostly favour accumulation. By March Uranus trines Jupiter, and Jupiter sextiles the progressed Sun trines the MC and sextiles the progressed Ascendant. This is a ridiculously positive combination; I wish I could have it when I bet on the horses.

In April when Neptune squares Jupiter effects are once again overblown. All round we are inundated/drowning (suitably Neptune/Jupiter words) in Hong Kong dollars, for good or evil.

The presence of Jupiter conjoining the HK$ Uranus and sextiling the Saturn/Ascendant in May-June is also positive even given the close progressed square of the Sun to natal Uranus which suggests leadership instability.

This is getting boring now. And so let’s just say that summer 2011 into September is more of the same and the themes continue.

But October to December is worth a special mention. We still have the slow moving Neptune transit in play. At the same time Jupiter is stationed retrograde at the same point as in May. Uranus again trines Jupiter. Pluto gives strength through its sextile to progressed Mars,
Finally there is a progressed new Moon, suggesting a new beginning at some level. I think, from memory that this is a critical time for other currencies such as sterling; something is in the air for this time.

Anyway, overall, despite a depressing little Saturn transit opposite the Moon in December it is difficult to quibble over the expansionary nature of these aspects.

2012
The Neptune aspects and the Jupiter station continue through to February, although January 2012 suggests a bit more stability with Saturn trine the MC and conjunct Mercury.

Let’s skip March and April as they just show other ways of achieving the same thing. But by May there is a change of emphasis. Neptune conjoins Saturn and the ascendant. Now this is generally a depressing effect. But in this case Neptune is also sextile Uranus, which is rather more transcendent. Basically, after all the drama of the past few years seems to morph into this point. So just possibly we could finally have a merger of the HK$ with the Renminbi at this time. There is certainly enough momentum for it with the Uranus/Pluto square activating the HK$ Mars/Saturn progressed conjunction and natal Mars.

Although the Neptune square with Jupiter and transit to the progressed MC continues through 2012, I think it may be irrelevant by the time the year is out as this currency will be no more.

So why pick this time and not the Neptune/Jupiter conjunction of 2009, or the cardinal cross of 2010, which is clearly a turning point of some kind, as the point or merger?

Two reasons: Change often requires external forces and if it isn’t broke why fix it. So we have to see more problems with the dollar/HK$ peg first. I see the speculation of 2009 as representing these. Thus we would have a potentially floating HK$ from mid 2010, but accompanied by a lot of changes both in the US$ dollar and other currencies from then into 2011 leading to a redefinition of many currencies at the end of 2011. All this will have inevitable impact on the global economy and interesting times in China will probably lead to some consolidation of position by 2012 which would tie nicely with the Neptune transit to the Renminbi and HK$ Saturns – merger would be a perfect description of such a combination which tends to dissolve structures.

And the other reason? Well, maybe I am just trying to fit things into my time frame!

Chart:
Hong Kong Dollar designated, 9 November 1935, 13.55 local (-8.00), Hong Kong.
Source: for date, Wikipedia and HK government sites, see
http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/exhibition/1-1.pdf
Time unconfirmed, rectified
The alternative date is 6 December 1935 Currency/exchange fund Ordinance

Thursday, 28 August 2008

France : 2008-2012


France is another departure from the schedule, although it forms a useful comparison with Ireland, giving a perspective on two very different Euro countries. The same reservations about monetary policy apply to France as to Ireland. References to money supply etc, must be taken in the context of the Euro, while France retains that currency, and not in terms of French government policy. That said, the existence of a common currency does not preclude a very different experience in France to any other Eurozone countries, it is after all coming from a quite different economic perspective.

That France, under Sarkozy, is trying to go in a new direction economically, should come as no surprise for those who have studied the astrology.

Pluto reached 28 degrees Sagittarius in 2007 and in 2008 had its first ingress into Capricorn. Under the chosen chart for France, this means Pluto has been square the French Sun for the last couple of years, and will now go on to square the France chart’s MC. Pluto rarely indicates changes overnight, they are the domain of Uranus, rather it indicates slow transformation and, more importantly, the other side of the coin, the fear of such transformation. What we have seen as Pluto squared the Sun, is France coming to terms with a new type of leader; what we will see as its squares the MC is likely to be the impact of that leadership on France itself.

Despite a creeping sense of concern, due to the last 12 months global financial activities, (which peaked in August as the lunar eclipse was on the chart’s Pluto, and the global view of Europe’s economic situation was revised downwards), France has been in a relatively stable state for the last couple of years. The progressed Ascendant is in an ongoing trine to a major progressed conjunction involving Mercury, Saturn the Sun and Mars in Taurus. This will not last, but it is not going to change tomorrow either.

There are a number of subtle influences at play and these continue through September 2008. Neptune retreats to once again oppose Uranus, and Uranus to oppose Mercury. This is unsettling but not serious. Information on the state of the economy is contradictory, and we might have some more exposures about French banking or other corporate activity (Neptune retrogrades to its January position, where it was when the Soc Gen misdemeanour was uncovered). Jupiter stations square the French Venus, also indicating excesses coming to light.

As in many of the other countries we have looked at, the configuration of Saturn Jupiter and Uranus in October and November, does not make any strong aspects to France’s chart. There is a quincunx with natal Uranus, which suggests continuing adaptation and discomfort, but no crisis. In November the progressed Moon opposes the progressed Mercury Saturn conjunction, suggesting some heavy evaluation but that is all and although in December the Moon opposes the Sun suggesting a divergence between the government and the people, on the whole things are relatively positive as Jupiter is sextile Mars- although of course that can also mean exhuberant responses, on balance any upsets will be a flash in the pan.

2009
The new trends really start to come to the fore in January 2009. Pluto reaches its square to the Midheaven. However it must be noted that Pluto is also trine the chart’s Saturn and sextile its Jupiter. There is an inbuilt stability in this, still. The fact that France resists changes is sometimes positive, it is less likely to make some of the mistakes of growing too fast, that other economies make, but the resistance is not always pleasant at the time. We will probably see the beginnings of Union dissent at this time.

One of the interesting things about the French Republic chart is that 1792 was also the year the US$ was defined. They both have a Neptune Jupiter conjunction opposing Saturn. Although how that plays out in a country is rather difficult from the inflationary effect it has on a currency, it does mean that France is likely to experience changes at the same time as there are dollar issues. January and February will be no exception to this as Jupiter squaring the conjunction has an impact on France’s economic dreams. And, as a result, we might even see some public demonstrations in March when the progressed Moon opposes progressed Mars, but once again, this by itself is a short lived effect.

Clearly, more interesting is whether the Jupiter/Neptune/Chiron conjunction resonates to the France chart. And in fact the conjunction in May is square the France natal Mars. Mars is the MC ruler in this chart. In the alternative chart it rules the Ascendant. An in the 21 September chart it is on the Midheaven. Whichever way you go, this is significant. However while a Jupiter square might possibly be considered to create a more combative situation, neither Neptune nor Chiron do. Together they are likely to do the opposite- stop action, create inertia. But as we know, what the conjunction touches, so does Uranus. In this case Uranus trines Mars, we have easy action. Since other charts suggest significant speculation and currency movements at this time, the conclusion seems to be that France is a bit of a victim in this case, paralysed by events outside its control.

The situation does not seem to let up completely, as the conjunction retrogrades through June and July. Pluto returns to its January position and there are more underlying tensions, although as mentioned this is not all for the bad, it will still seem challenging in the short term.

By August Jupiter starts a few months of transiting the French natal Uranus/Pluto opposition. While we cannot read too much into an occurrence which repeats every 12 years, it is worth remembering the importance of this conjunction as the one that defines the French change from a monarchy to a Republic. Jupiter transiting this area will always reawaken those themes, but in good times they will take a back seat. In more challenging times, there is likely to be a more mutinous effect. In this case we also have Pluto again activating the Neptune/Jupiter, Saturn opposition reminding the French that this country is supposed to be run for the people. Together the effect, from August to October, is likely to increased nationalistic feeling, and distrust of government and the economic system.

It seems as if the situation becomes more concrete in November. Transiting Saturn conjoins the France IC. The progressed Moon squares Uranus. Chickens come home to roost. By December the Neptune conjunction reforms at 24 degrees Aquarius conjoining the French chart’s Pluto. These appear to be quite big economic chickens that are on their way.

2010
With Saturn conjoining the IC and Pluto square it we are getting a taste of the impact of the cardinal cross on the country by January. However Jupiter is trine the chart’s Jupiter Neptune conjunction, so there is temporary optimism that the worst is over and lots of money/cheap credit being thrown at things yet again.

The next few months are a little mixed then. There is more delusion meshed with inertia as Neptune again squares the French Mars, but Jupiter trines the MC. There is however also continued underlying discontent as the progressed Moon reactivates the Pluto/Uranus opposition, which might lead to more open action as Uranus is also trine Mars again.

By April, though, things are shifting. Neptune is trine Neptune, by itself not very exciting but suggesting again more monetary expansion. This might be lower rates, but it might be literally more money as inflation takes hold.

At the same time the transiting Uranus/Jupiter conjunction trines the progressed Jupiter and Saturn sextile it. It would appear to be a very good time for economic freedom, However, this opposition is not just trine the progressed Jupiter, it is also right on the France MC/IC axis, and picks up the chart’s Sun too. When a country which defines itself by Liberty egality and fraternity is picking up so strongly a combination like this, it suggests radical and potentially difficult changes. Since Uranus and Jupiter are on the midheaven the objective seems to be independence and this could mean it may be trying to break free of economic bonds of the EU, and/or that the people are rebelling again the government. In 1968, when they were together on the chart’s IC ( opposite the 2010 position), there were a series of student protests and a general strike which led to the fall of the De Gaulle government. Although the timing of the actual conjunction differs from the protests by some months, and there are other different factors in play in each case, the parallels should not be ignored.

To quote from Wikipedia on the subject




May '68 was a political failure for the protesters, but it had an enormous social impact. In France, it is considered to be the watershed moment that saw the replacement of conservative morality (religion, patriotism, respect for authority) with the liberal morality (equality, sexual liberation, human rights) that dominates French society today”

As mentioned the situation will not be the same, however, we do know that this will be a major turning point. If we revert to 1928, we see the previous conjunction was a turning point after which France began to run a trade surplus and accumulate reserves following post war depreciation of the franc. Interesting to see the Neptune Jupiter themes in the background suggesting quite the opposite- indeed suggesting free spending and possibly inflation of money.

Where as the timing of events in these previous instances is not perfect correlated, the closeness of these 201 aspects suggests that early August 2010 is likely to be critical. Not only is that the point where Mars joins the cross and the moon activates it but the French progressed Moon conjoins progressed Jupiter; a sign of the people gaining what they want.

It might be a bit of an anti-climax next as Neptune squares Mars again in September. There is, again, a sense of having access to more funds a Pluto sextiles Jupiter/Neptune once more. However by November there is a sense of the need to conserve resources as Saturn conjoins Venus.

2011
In 2011 there is a background theme which will gradually come to fore. Pluto will conjoin the progressed Ascendant.

However in January, although it is within orb, the conjunction does not perfect. The Jupiter Uranus conjunction is again on the MC. Neptune again trines Neptune. And Jupiter will trine the progressed Moon. The themes of 2009 continue but are moderated and relatively positive at this point.

In April through June, Saturn stations on Venus, and sextiles the Moon and progressed Moon conjunction. France is stable but cautious at this time.

In June, Jupiter opposes the Neptune/ Jupiter conjunction in the 1st Republic Chart, expanding optimism and possibly the availability of an excess of cheap money again or, less pleasantly, inflation.

In July Jupiter conjoins that progressed Saturn Sun conjunction and Pluto again trines the progressed Saturn at the same time right the way through to October. The latter is not a particularly cheerful aspect but in the context probably not unhelpful. Uranus (now without Jupiter) again conjoins the MC in the summer through to October too. There is still a lot of change in the air but it does not seem to be accompanied by much difficulty at this time. Neptune square progressed Jupiter in August continues the theme of cheap money, and Jupiter conjoining the progressed Sun again, continues the theme of optimism and a positive feeling about the country. Saturn in October sextile/Trine the country’s Pluto Uranus opposition really suggests stability.

But don’t forget that upcoming Pluto/progressed ascendant. Hints of problems may be briefly experienced in November as Saturn squares the Ascendant, suggesting obstacles and a short period of hardship. But other than that the end of 2011 still suggests things on the surface are expansive with another shot of cheap money/more inflation in December.

2012

In January 2012 however, the picture changes. Now Uranus on the MC ushers in a different change. Pluto is finally square the progressed Ascendant and by the end of the year Uranus will be square it.

So what is different economically? Temporarily at least, a great deal. Saturn is in opposition to the French Neptune in the first months of 2012. And Neptune is forming a sextile to Saturn and a trine to Neptune still. Whilst this is not quite the double whammy of hard aspects that we have seen in the Irish chart, it does suggest a slip into more difficult recessionary conditions, despite, or perhaps due to, the Neptune square progressed Jupiter suggesting more money in the system again. In February the theme is emphasised a Jupiter conjoins the progressed Saturn.

April also looks a tricky time, as Pluto squares the progressed Ascendant and Saturn the natal ascendant. This is a very heavy and depressive combination and suggests that France will be forced into some economic and political restructuring at this time.

But the country is not showing to deep a problem as yet. May is mixed, with a show of combative spirit as Jupiter opposes the progressed Mars and with the Pluto aspect continuing but more positivity and boosts to the economy in the form of more yet more possible inflation or other money easing as Neptune trines Jupiter again.

In June the Pluto/Uranus square is very near the progressed Ascendant. And over the summer Saturn will square the country’s Ascendant- making things seem a lot tougher.

In September to November Saturn conjoins Neptune again, and opposes natal Saturn but is still benefiting from the Neptune transiting trine. Indeed with Jupiter conjoining progressed Venus in September there is a probable feeling of comfort at least for a few weeks.

But December sees that Pluto transiting the progressed Ascendant again as well as Saturn opposite progressed Saturn. It looks as if by 2013 things are about to get much tougher.

Chart

First day of French first republic, September 22 1792, 0.00 LMT, Paris, based on start of calendar source:http://www.marxists.org/history/france/revolution/1793/calendar.htm

see previous post "Will the real French lady please stand up" for a discussion about this chart choice


Will the real French lady please stand up?



Those reading the title of this post and expecting an article on Carla Bruni, complete with pictures, are going to be disappointed. Ms Bruni is of course Italian and this article is about that most French of all French ladies, La Republic itself.

As readers of earlier posts may have surmised, hindsight is easy, prediction is hard, but choosing the right chart can be jolly near impossible. When I wrote my Ireland forecast I was lucky enough to find a full analysis of the various Irish charts to help me: not so with France. I have finally made a choice, but only after much deliberation and comparison work. So for the benefit of those that are interested I am presenting my train of thought here. Those merely interested in the forecasts should move on to my next post.

Nick Campion’s book of world horoscopes, gives a broad range of charts for France. Whilst the revolution charts are interesting from a perspective of the ideals that founded modern France, they don’t really represent the foundation of anything long term. Similarly the 2nd to 4th Republic charts are of interest for those time periods but less so now. We are therefore left with the charts for the foundation of the first Republic and the current, 5th. Which to use? And are there any further charts we should consider?

Essentially the first Republic chart should still be relevant. And indeed we find that the Campion chart has the same degree for its descendant as the ascendant of the 5th Republic. We can conclude from this that the two are linked and using either is a possibility. In such a case I prefer to use the older chart as it provides more historical context for various transits. So 1792 it is.

The answer to the second question seems to be yes. The Campion book includes charts for the removal of the king on 21st September 1792, but the new administration was deemed to start from the next day. Furthermore there are two possible charts for that day, which we could utilize. Both are based on the information gleaned from the calendar that the new government put into place retrospectively, which can be read at
http://www.marxists.org/history/france/revolution/1793/calendar.htm

The intention seems to have been to create a country with a 0 degrees Libra Sun, starting at 9.18am but the practicalities seem to suggest a 29 Virgo sun for a midnight chart. Furthermore the descendant in the Campion chart is the ascendant in the midnight chart ( i.e the same as the 5th Republic) and the Asc/MC for the Campion public announcement chart is the same as for the 9.18 chart. So which works best?

First let us look at the three charts’ key differences:



Perhaps we can pick the chart by looking at the emblems and symbols of the Republic?

Other than the exact degree, the Moon positions are all Sagittarian, perfect for the emblem of liberty as a female. And yet there is another woman that France venerates, the legendary Marianne- perhaps she is more symbolic of the country’s Venus in Libra though. But if France identifies with these women then the Sun sign should also be relevant. Virgo or Libra? If we look at representations we see both. There is no clear line between the symbols or their nature, over time they often have become inter-changeable.

We could perhaps limit ourselves to Delacroix’s famous painting. Liberty wears a red cap, great that must be Aries on the MC, right?............... Or perhaps it is just Mars in Scorpio conjunct the MC? That helps- at least we can rule out the Leo Mc can’t we?

But look at the painting…. Surely Scorpionic? So perhaps a Scorpio Ascendant works after all?
But that tells us nothing since Mars is situated there in all the charts. The only possible determinator from this painting is Liberty’s bare breasts- a very Cancerian symbol.

What about other symbols? France has association with the Coq. But is that Aries with a red top or is a Leo Coq d’or ? It really doesn’t help much.

So what do we see when we look at France? What about buildings that signify the country MC? Shall we pick the very Mars/Aries Eiffel tower, or the “oh so Leo” Arc de Triomphe? No help there either.

Or the people? Well the UK probably associated France with food, either for its Michelin recommended food, its wine industry or just its strong agricultural base. So a Cancer ascendant, Aries MC and Virgo Sun might just work…. But the chefs are hardly associated with humility and the farmers are traditionally rather subversive, so we could equally select a Leo MC and a Scorpio Ascendant instead? In any case, these associations seemed have weakned in the last couple of decades and indeed countries other than the UK may well have a different picture of France.

It is as if there are two Frances; the one they really wanted to be, all balanced and Libran and the one they are, a bit critical of the rest of the world and steeped in Virgoan bureaucracy? Or perhaps these images are just the impact of the Venus or Mercury positions.

Look at what Wikipedia has to say about the symbol of Marianne en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marianne

Two "Mariannes" were authorised: one is fighting and victorious, recalling the Greek goddess Athena. She has a bare breast, the Phrygian cap and a red corsage, and has the arm lifted in a gesture of rebellion. The other one is more conservative: she is rather quiet, wears Antiquity clothes, with sun rays around her head — a transfer of the royal symbol to the Republic — and is accompanied by many symbols.... These two, rival Mariannes represent two ideas of the Republic, a bourgeois representation and a democratic and social representation

In fact it seems that the split is intentional and that all the charts will have something to say about France and it is merely a case of finding the best one for our purpose.

So how about the transits etc, do they tell us more? What follows is a table comparing transits and progressions to mainly (but not exclusively) the angles in the chart significant events in the last century using the two 22nd Sept charts. Note that this is not an exhaustive list of aspects, merely a selection of appropriate ones.


As we can see, both charts in some way pick up almost all the events. The rather delightful emphasis on Mars in the Eiffel tower comparison is particularly neat.

In the end there is just a slight bias towards the 0.00 chart for the later and economic events which swings it for me. But I suspect either chart will throw up suitable future transits too. France is complex but, where there is complexity, astrology is only to happy to oblige with amazing synchronicity.

Thursday, 14 August 2008

Ireland: Economic forecast 2008-2012


This week I am diverging a little from my planned schedule to indulge the request of some astrologer friends in, you’ve guessed it from the title, Ireland. So, thank-you to Barry and Ingrid of www.velanova.com for inspiring and contributing feedback for this post.

The reason this is a divergence is, that Ireland, as part of the EU, is the first country I have analysed for this blog that does not have its own currency. Ireland does have a stock market, but we won’t be concerned with that directly today, we are interested in the economic and political state of the country itself over the coming years.

These fortunes are in some way tied to the fortunes of the Euro and as a result the Irish government has one less tool at its disposal for managing financial policy. Given how many tools there are and given the ability of economists and politicians everywhere to stupidly and wilfully misuse the ones they do have, this can be no bad thing. It does change the way we interpret the chart, however.

And which chart? Obviously the history of the Ireland in the past few centuries has been a little turbulent, but the country now known as Ireland, as opposed to Northern Ireland, has been peaceful, and we need a chart that reflects that ideology as well as a more outward looking/international perspective.

Finding the right chart for every entity considered is one of the burdens of the average astrologer, and I am no exception. Such research and backward analysis to find the right fit often absorbs more time than the prediction itself. Using other astrologer’s choice of chart is only viable if they give detailed reasons for their choice; else, it rarely solves the problem. In this case I am grateful to Bill Sheeran for his article, referenced below, which has effectively done all the work for me. His choice, for modern economic purposes only, for the current chart of Ireland, is the chart for the total separation from the UK in 1949.

What I liked about this was the fact that, although I thought I was diverging from my schedule, the universe thinks otherwise and has provided me with a chart set for one month after the Nikkei 225 that I looked at last week. Neat. I love the universe when it is being witty.

In the coming years, there are a number of progressions that are approaching exactitude in the 1949 chart and almost all of them involve the chart angles and are therefore likely to be important in changing the overall structure of the country.

Over the last 12 months Saturn has made its 29 year return to both natal Saturn and the chart’s progressed Saturn, stationing on the latter in April through May, and more recently squaring the progressed MC and the Ascendant. Although there has been substantial prosperity with the progressed Ascendant squaring the Sun/Venus conjunction, that has not all been with real foundation and Saturn has recently been providing a few lessons to those who thought there was easy money forever.

This seems in keeping with the fact that Ireland’s economy boom has partly been brought about by Dublin’s financial services developments which started in the mid-90s and are obviously hurting along with the rest of the world banking system, following the so called “credit crunch”. Property prices in Ireland have also risen almost continuously since the mid 90s, spreading out from Dublin to the whole country. That has come to a halt with the arrival of Saturn. But now as the planet moves on we would perhaps expect a change of atmosphere.

This week’s eclipse is not especially exciting for the country. There is a trine to the progressed Sun, but not much else.

Indeed there is not much in the way of events going on at all in the last few months of the year either. Although Jupiter is stationed at 12 degrees Capricorn in September, this really does not pick up much in the chart at all. The progressed Moon does oppose progressed Saturn and square the progressed midheaven that month, but despite the fact that this suggests more difficult times, the sextile to the natal moon implies that it will not lead to any notable changes.

The configuration of Jupiter/Saturn and Uranus in October and November is also pretty irrelevant as far as the Irish economy is concerned.

December looks a bit challenging though. Pluto opposes the progressed Uranus and is in conjunction with the Republic’s moon: suggesting that there may be increasing discontent. However this is again unlikely to be too significant, the Republic’s Moon is trine Saturn, the people have a disposition to be relatively content most of the time, and it will take more than a bit of restructuring to upset them. Anyway the feeling is accompanied by a rather favourable Jupiter conjunction with the progressed ascendant and sextile the Sun/Venus conjunction. This looks like a dose of financial luck (an interest rate cut by the ECB perhaps) so no big worries yet.

2009
This relatively favourable picture continues into 2009. The country has a Jupiter return- a once every 12 year event, and Jupiter then trines the MC and in the absence of conflicting factors this is generally positive. However it is also the end and beginning of a cycle – and it was last in this position 12 years previously in 1997. Given how the Irish economy has grown , the Jupiter return is as likely to throw up some of the negative associations with expansion as well as positive ones. Certainly the progressed Moon square the Ascendant in February implies some dissatisfaction.

The subject of wider cycles is also pertinent in March. Jupiter reaches its opposition with the Republic’s Pluto. This throws up the question of the level of debt in the economy again. Some financial and banking issues are likely to arise – maybe some refinancing is made easier though – as the chart has a sextile between Pluto and Neptune, so favours credit generally. Things also look positive in April. Neptune trines the progressed Sun, there may not be strong leadership but there is no sign of substantial difficulty either.

May is obviously the month when the Neptune/Jupiter/Chiron conjunction is at its peak. The conjunction is sextile the Irish Sun/Venus and trine its Uranus and progressed Sun. Even though Uranus is simultaneously square the progressed Sun, this is still, on balance, expansionary – if anything too much so. However, there are background influences in the form of a progressed Ascendant approaching a quincunx to Saturn, on the back of the 2008 quincunx to Uranus, that suggest that not everything is rosy at the fundamental levels. And more seriously, there is an approaching progressed Mars conjunction with the Descendant.

Now the Republic of Ireland chart has a quite modest Mars. Although it is in Aries, except for a wide conjunction with the diplomatic Sun/Venus conjunction, it really makes few aspects. So generally, here, we don’t have a chart with much aggression in it. However even the most patient individual can become angry with sufficient provocation and nations are no different. With progressed Mars appearing on the descendant in orb with Mercury we can expect some more assertive behaviour and certainly a lot more rhetoric. But even this aspect by itself is not problematic- it merely provides the potential, the action must be provided by a transit of a major planet and we don’t have one yet. Furthermore, Mars on the descendant might also in this case relate to situation in one of Ireland’s partners; this could be the UK (as this was the country from which separation was achieved in this chart) and this would correspond with deepening social problems that are reflected in the UK chart over the next few years. It could also relate to the EU, as the Irish government will almost certainly attempt to lay the blame for any internal problems elsewhere ( that is what governments do to preserve themselves), and the EU and Euro may be on the receiving end of a black-lash from both the Irish government and its people. Less likely, as the chart is the 1949 chart of UK separation and not a chart representing Irish separation, but not to be ruled out, is a recurrence of violence in Northern Ireland. Indeed, if the UK as a whole is suffering economic stagnation, then such problems are a potential side effect.


With Pluto conjoining the Republic’s Moon, opposing the progressed Uranus and trining progressed Saturn, in June there does seem to be a continuing theme of nervousness in the Republic itself though. The thing about Pluto is that is brings a sense of threat with no action and therefore no resolution – a sword of Damocles, if you will. It is difficult to reconcile this feeling with what does not look at all like a severe recession and it is possible that there is some other political motivation – perhaps the relationship with Europe.

These themes continue throughout the summer with only the second week of September being particularly significant as Saturn opposite Uranus squares the progressed Sun – maybe problems or disputes within the leadership will result from this. On the whole though it is just more of the same through November.

But by December Pluto is square Saturn at around 3 degrees of the cardinal signs. The chart MC is at 4 degrees Libra – close enough to be impacted. Now we can start to see some concrete effects rather than mere shades in the background.

2010
The effect of the Pluto/Saturn square continues into the early part of 2010, although Jupiter, sextiling the Moon later in the month lightens the mood a bit. But that same Jupiter heats up exchanges a bit in February – now this might just mean that literally we have a rise in trade, but it also might mean some debates escalating out of hand. The likelihood of the latter is suggested by the parallel trine of Neptune and square of Uranus to the progressed Sun. Perhaps the government’s attempts to implement some economic policy is prevented – certainly action at this time is likely to be disjointed and not as successful as expected.

March sees the return of themes from 2009, with the Venus/Sun conjunction positively activated, but at the same time a sense of instability continues to creep in as Uranus squares Uranus. This is a theme that the Republic will have to get used to as it will last for a few years.

June to September of 2010 is characterised globally by the cardinal cross. In Ireland’s case, as we have already seen in our discussion of Pluto’s advance, this hits the mid-heaven point, and the Moon and progressed Uranus and Saturn. The progressed MC at 3 Sagittarius, and Asc at 0 Aquarius are also picked up – although in this case the aspects will be positive. It is an ill wind that blows no-one any good. This fact is echoed in that the progressed Ascendant conjunction with Jupiter and quincunx with Uranus at the same time. There will have to be some restructuring of the economy which will be difficult but from which some will benefit.

It is not necessarily good for the leadership though. Jupiter and Uranus square Uranus and the progressed Sun in September suggest change.

More seriously, as well as bearing the continued Pluto transit to the MC, by October Saturn forms a conjunction with the Irish Neptune, where it last was in 1981. This is recessionary.

The '80s in Ireland were a particularly bad time economically as well as politically. The following speech gives some indication of the problem then.

I wish to talk to you this evening about the state of the nation's affairs and the picture I have to paint is not, unfortunately, a very cheerful one. The figures which are just now becoming available to us show one thing very clearly. As a community we are living away beyond our means…….. To make up the difference we have been borrowing enormous amounts of money, borrowing at a rate which just cannot continue. A few simple figures will make this very clear...we will just have to reorganise government spending so that we can only undertake those things we can afford.

Charles Haughey, January 9, 1980 –

Source: www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Haughey

In 1981 there was a change of government which brought in a coalition who undertook a severe pruning of government spending following a few years of financial imprudence. Both in the Republic and in the North, it was one of the most politically divisive times in many, many years. To give some idea of the instability at the time and the relatively minor nature of triggers to dissatisfaction, the next government only lasted until January 1982 when it collapsed due to a controversial budget which proposed the application of Value Added Tax to children's shoes, previously exempt. However, at this point, we are not talking about a sitaution identifical at all levels to 1981, only at the economic level.

As I say, it is recessionary, the only question is whether it is a short or long transit…and in October, at least, it’s short. Unfortunately, as we shall see, later October is just an appetiser.

Indeed, in general, the situation remains much the same as in the summer right up until early 2011.

2011
The uncertainty, associated with the Neptune and Uranus aspects to the progressed Sun, at government and country level continues into January 2009. February looks a little bullish and upbeat, with Jupiter opposing the mid-heaven but trine the Ascendant and sextile the progressed Mars and Mercury. But March is less so with a Moon square, suggesting more public dissatisfaction.

The recessionary feel is also back as Saturn retrogrades to station on Neptune. The real effects of that Mars crossing the descendant may start to be felt now, as Pluto forms a quincunx with the progressed Mars/Mercury conjunction and Jupiter conjoins the natal Mars. April and May 2011 don’t appear to be good months for Ireland. But the real problems may just be beginning.

In June the progressed Moon reaches the IC and this looks like a key turning point. Saturn is still conjunct Neptune, but now Neptune is opposing Saturn too. This is a similar double whammy to the one that the Japanese stock market is experiencing at the same time. Not sure that they are directly connected (!), although in these global days one can never be sure. What is clear is that although the Irish chart only dates from 1949, we do have data on a previous Neptune opposite this Saturn point, in 1846ish – namely the potato famine. Now while we have moved on from potatoes, economically this mix of factors does not look good. The fact that, at the same time there may be some positive changes as progressed Sun conjoins Uranus and sextiles the Sun/venus conjunction is irrelevant, given the strength of a double dose of Saturn and Neptune.
Recession looks a raging certainty now. Scary that it takes from 2008 to 2011 to settle in. That’s bad government policy – not necessarily local, more likely global- meaning we don’t deal with problems quickly anymore, we brush them under the carpet until we catch our foot on them trip and break a leg.

Anyway, over the summer there is nothing much new. The Pluto Uranus square to the mid-heaven continues and even though the recessionary effect backs off a bit, it does not look to lift completely – indeed it looks like it is only really getting off the ground.

It settles in again by October as Neptune returns to its June position opposite Saturn. It can’t be a coincidence that the progressed MC crosses the Ascendant at this time- Ireland having to face up to both the good and the bad aspects of itself. Saturn opposes Mars, a healthy dose of trade control is probably put in place.

December is characterised by further low key disruption as Uranus squares progressed Uranus and Pluto returns to quincunx Mars again. A Jupiter square makes the situation more volatile.

2012
The first few months just suggest more of the same.

In March, the recessionary Neptune opposite Saturn continues. Transiting Uranus now fully reaches the IC. And Saturn itself now opposes the chart’s Sun/Venus conjunction, although working reasonably well as it trines Uranus and the progressed Sun. This marks another turning point.

There are likely to be more problems of a different type come May, as Uranus sextile Mars, and Pluto is still close to the quincunx point. Picking up this square with a Mars can’t be good economically or politically. Economically it would imply cuts and restructuring, politically – well the less said the better. It is noteworthy that at this time the progressed MC opposes progressed Mars too. Nevertheless, we should continue to bear in mind that the progressed Mars is in the 7th house – it is possible that what we see here is merely the reflection of actions in the UK, EU or Northern Ireland at this time.

By the summer, although Neptune has passed Saturn, it is now opposing the progressed Saturn. No let up from the recessionary conditions. Saturn in the form of government is trying to calm things down; Saturn is once again opposing the Sun/Venus conjunction and trining Uranus. To a degree this will work – this trine is fairly strong and close at the time.

The recession continues though, as Neptune retrogrades again. There is a lot of petty disruption throughout the last three months of the year. The progressed Moon in conjunct Mars, the people are angry and there is still an underlying current of other more serious political problems with Pluto quincunx Mars joined by Saturn in Scorpio in November. Uranus on the IC also destabilises things once more. And the year ends on a particularly inflamed note as Jupiter stations on the progressed Mars.

Chart:
Republic of Ireland: 18 April 1949. 0.00 BST. Dublin.
Source: N. Campion Book of World Horoscopes.
As mentioned my choice of chart in this case was inspired by this article by Bill Sheeran: www.astrologysoftware.com/resources/articles/getarticle.asp?ID=133

Sunday, 10 August 2008

Japan: Nikkei 225 from 2008-2012


Nikkei: The Neptunian role model



The Nikkei and the Tokyo exchange as a whole are a particularly interesting study astrologically. The Stock exchange has in recent years been plagued with IT issues, and the panic engendered by the livedoor scandal.

The Nikkei is a salutary lesson for those who think that markets always go up in the medium term. It is still in 2008, at only a third the level of its peak of nearly 39,000 on December 29,1989, when the exact transiting opposition of Jupiter and Uranus together Neptune/Saturn conjunction on the chart’s IC and squaring the ephemeral Neptune on the chart’s ascendant ended an enormous bubble. We probably won’t get back to those levels until the later 2020s.

The index was involved in a long slow and tedious decline from the mid 90s to mid 00s. Which could surely only be Saturnian. Indeed throughout that time the progressed MC was transiting, first natal, then progressed Saturn. Nice. Not.

The most recent low was March 2008, when the index was experiencing its progressed Saturn return at 3 degrees Virgo- those early Virgo degrees do keep cropping up don’t they?

At the moment we also have a Saturn effect – it is transiting the progressed MC, once more depressing prices. However we also have that delightful little animal, the Neptune/Mars configuration in play. Progressed Mars at 24 Gemini is being activated by Neptune- this is liable to provide flights of fancy that this market is the place to be. The eclipse next Friday 16th August triggers this point, so there may be a rally around or just past that date as Saturn finally moves on.

There is, in the background an approaching Jupiter ascendant progressed trine. Definitely a positive sign. And with Jupiter retrograding to station on the Moon and IC and square the Neptune/Ascendant at the end of August and through September, we something of a consolidation of a turning point going on here. However it is as if things can’t quite get off the ground – Neptune in quincunx the progressed Sun and Saturn square Mercury in October, there are difficulties, perhaps a mix of news that makes people still nervous about the index.

Maybe it is just that the focus is not on this market then, the Jupiter/Uranus/Saturn configuration of October November makes no close aspects to the chart. The question is, is this just interminable dullness or is it the calm before the storm?

At least Jupiter livens things up at the end of the year- making and opposition to the Sun, a trine to the progressed Sun, a quincunx to progressed Mars and Saturn and a progressed Jupiter return, all in the space of a few weeks – that should spark interest again.

2009
Jupiter finally reaches the Nikkei Jupiter for its full return in January 2009. At the same time, Pluto opposes the chart’s progressed Uranus, but it is trine progressed Saturn. This suggests discrimination in investing – only the safe companies, and not the high risk ones will be flavour of the month, but the balance is generally positive. As a result, by late February/early March we might see some rapid trading, when Jupiter squares Mars. It’s all go later in March – Jupiter opposes the index’s Pluto and progressed Venus, Neptune is forming the trine to progressed Mars, Uranus a trine to the progressed Sun, and Pluto’s trine to progressed Saturn is unencumbered by the Uranus opposition. This is a big movement of money at play and it looks to be moving into this market.

So what about the bubbly Neptune/Jupiter/Chiron conjunction coming up in May? It is widely square the progressed Ascendant and square the chart’s Sun, but then Uranus is sextile that point as well as sextile the progressed Jupiter and trine the progressed Ascendant. On balance a favourable picture. I might even put some money in this index for the early part of 2009, got to be safer than other places!

Over the summer, the same themes continue, though diluted as the planets retrograde away from some of these important degrees. The trine to Mars looks like buying in August, but the square from Uranus and Saturn, accentuated by the progressed Moon in September to October looks like volatility with a downward bias. Perfectly in keeping with bursting the Neptunian bubble of the months before.

November looks more stable. The progressed Moon sextiles the Sun and Saturn sextiles the progressed Ascendant and Jupiter. Volatility has dies down a bit and prices are becoming more solid.

In December the situation is beginning to get interesting again. There are a lot of long term fundamental adjustments going on in this chart. Saturn now square Pluto is picking up the Pluto transit to progressed Uranus and Saturn as well as pulling in the chart’s Jupiter. The index’s Venus is also activated. This is fundamental analysis going on. Investors are not looking at the whole index they are really asking what is good and bad in the Japan economy and picking their sectors accordingly. Prices of the index as a whole may be fixed but there is much switching between companies. Maybe battening down into defensives if there are global problems at this time.

2010
January starts with a reply of spring –summer 2009. Both the Neptune conjunction and the Pluto Saturn square are in play. The index probably rises, even irrationally, though favouring safe sectors over others. February, as Jupiter moves to oppose progressed Saturn and trine Uranus suggests more of the same but potentially going for more risky technologically driven companies.

In March Saturn consolidates the position as it forms a grand trine with the index Venus and Jupiter. Uranus is once again squaring progressed Mars, making trading volatile- but on a much lower level, probably as people wait for the next stage. April is more of the same. Probably a lot happening on a granular level but not much trend-wise.

May, however, and the cardinal cross is starting to from. Uranus reaches a trine to the progressed Ascendant. Jupiter is coming up to join it, sextiling progressed Jupiter and reactivating much of the excitement from 2009. Although Saturn is in opposition, this is supporting the attractiveness of the market rather than reducing it at this stage. The trend really locks into place in June as the progressed Moon reaches 2 degrees and sextiles the index Jupiter and Venus. The whole world and his dog are in on this for a while. You want bubbles? We got ‘em!

So the cardinal cross is really picked up here. We can summarize the position in July through September 2010:
Pluto :opposite prog.Uranus, trine prog. Saturn, square prog Moon, quincunx Venus
Saturn: Square prog.Uranus, opposite prog Moon, trine Venus, trine Jupiter, sextile prog. Asc.
Uranus/jupiter : Square prog.Uranus, quincunx prog. Saturn conjunct prog Moon, sextile Venus, sextile Jupiter, trine prog. Asc.


It is big. But is it boom or bust? Can it be both? All these aspects are major, but they are conflicting. Could it be that we have a global ( Pluto Saturn) downturn, but a local speculative boom? Of course much of this will depend what is happening in the currency markets too. This is not the post for putting everything together, we’ll come back to that later.

The themes continue into the Autumn months. But by November we see something different emerging. Saturn reaches the Index Ascendant- and we know Saturn is not a good planet for this index. It is a critical point – not only is Saturn conjoining the Ascendant, but Neptune as well and it is square the Moon. Added to which progressed Mercury is now almost on the Midheaven of the chart, and is also picked up. So many grand crosses, so little time! This is, for a while at least, highly depressing for the index. It suggests lower prices, negative data, unhappy punters and the odd glitch in the system to complete the pretty picture. Hope you sold a few months ago.

December is a bit better. Some respite from November’s slump, but the grand cross is still in place, minus Saturn, and we haven’t got over the broader picture that is creating such shifts yet. There may be renewed but temporary optimism.

2011
The themes of December continue into February of 2011. Jupiter sextile Venus and Jupiter again suggests the balance is once more positive.

In March/April there is a significant shift again. Saturn, which has gone retrograde returns to its December 2010 position, and the progressed Moon crosses the Descendant. Both pick up the Index’s Moon/Neptune and progressed Mercury, angular square again. If this weren’t negative enough we have confirmation: transiting Neptune opposes the index’s Saturn and squares its progressed Ascendant at the same time. This is a pretty spectacular double whammy. Although Jupiter is on the Descendant, and would normally be busy pumping up a bubble, it is difficult to see how it can overcome the negative Saturn connotations of the chart at this time.

It is worth bearing in mind, at this point, that what we are encountering here is something bigger than just the Japan index. What we are seeing is something about consumerism as a whole. Japan’s chart dates from 1889/90 and closely picks up the Pluto/Neptune oil and consumer conjunction of 1891/2. The Nikkei 225 picks up the sextile, which we know defines the consumer boom of the last half century. What these aspects are saying is something more fundamental than the grand cross even, they are indicative of Japan’s role as a supplier/exporter to the consumer society and how that will change in the coming decades. Of course that puts the question right back to “what is the overall economic objective of society?” It’s a question that Japan will be forced to ask as the Uranus Pluto square comes up to the index angles in 2013 onwards, but that is for another day…Let’s go back to Japan in 2011.

Saturn and Neptune continue their influences throughout the early summer. Saturn is stationed around these degrees until late July and any beneficial influence of Jupiter reduces after mid April as it moves away. Uranus continues to inject volatility through its aspects to Venus, Uranus Jupiter and Saturn, right the way through the summer, but it is unlikely to be strong enough to overcome the Saturn Neptune influences before August.

By August Saturn is moving on, but of course the impact of the other partner in crime Neptune, so much slower in movement, still continues. Jupiter creates the conditions for a bit of a rally in August as it squares Jupiter and trine Saturn in the chart and Saturn turns its attentions back to looking at fundamental value as it sextile Pluto and progressed Venus and trines Mercury.

The theme of volatility created by Uranus continues throughout the rest of 2011, although Saturn finishes his evaluation work in October and moves on to just creating general restriction and regulatory issues, as it qincunx’s the Sun, in the last two months.

Neptune’s influence does not wane however and it is still making the same depressive aspect in December as the year comes to a close.

2012
Uranus lines up for the final burst of volatile prices in January and February, as it return once more to sextile the chart’s Venus and Jupiter square its progressed Uranus and quincunx its Saturn. Saturn and Neptune are briefly forming a grand trine with the index’s Uranus which might subdue the volatility a bit through, or sustain the effects for slightly longer. The theme seems to remain intact through March.

By April, there may be some false signs of life. Neptune is approaching a square the Venus and trine to progressed Uranus – which suggests blindness to faults and a bit of overvaluation. Saturn, trining the Index progressed Mars and square the Index Sun gives a bit of substance to trading, and a Jupiter square to Pluto and progressed Venus in late April, implies some big money shifts then. But we are not talking 2010 activity here, just a let up of the recent inertia.
Saturn stations for a few months, without really activating very much. Really nothing much is happening trend-wise throughout the summer months. Saturn is back to its April position in September, so being out of the Japanese market for these months is no loss either way. Although of course I am talking medium to long term trade here, not daily ones.

Neptune is back to its opposition and square in October. Saturn is no longer of course creating a double whammy effect, but it is trine Neptune at this point and is more likely to be holding the trend than changing it. This is dull stuff at best – depressing prices at worst.

And the year on a similar picture. No real direction and whereas the end of 2008 looked like potential for excitement, the long term perspective for 2013 here is for some tough times unless you have chosen the right technologies.

Chart:
Nikkei 225 Index : Chart set for index base on 16 May 1949, 15.00 JST -9.00 Tokyo, Japan. Sources, Wikipedia/wiki/Nikkei_225 , Tokyo Stock Exchange opening hours from TSE.
Index was calculated retrospectively, it is assumed that the base was the closing price on first day as this was the first trading day of the exchange and opening 9.00am prices would have been more difficult to compute.

Japan, economy and the Yen: 2008-2012



On 4th August , the Financial Times reported that “Japan is suffering a slowdown but it has no house price bubble or credit crunch to deal with and its export markets in Asia are still growing” and that “Japan should keep interest rates on hold”.

Aside from what this implicitly states about the desirability of the hamster-wheel relationship between domestic consumption and the goal of GDP growth, it does beg the questions, “what is the real state of the Japanese economy, where is it going from here and how does that fit with the broader global economic picture?”

So looking at the Japan country chart in conjunction with the Yen chart, we will consider the direction of the Japanese economy between now and 2012.

The current eclipse on 16th August will be close to the Japan sun, and Neptune will be transiting the Sun as it did earlier in the year. This suggests exactly what the FT article portrays – a lack of direction (*) and possibly pointing to issues of deception around the leadership. There is a potential for disputes/disruption as Uranus is square progressed Mars at the same time- although the favourable trine from the eclipse to that Mars suggests resolution rather than escalation.

The Yen now


There is evidence of speculative volatility in the yen chart around the eclipse time, with Neptune quincunx the progressed Jupiter and Uranus an Neptune sextiling Neptune and trining Venus and Jupiter suggests a departure from fundamental value which is likely to continue over the next couple of years.

One of the key factors in the Japan chart or the next few years is the progression of Mars to a trine with the natal, Sun, closely followed by a similar progressed Sun aspect. And with the Sun in the chart trine Uranus, there is a suggestion that changes have been happening internally that will bring fruit in these next 3-4 years. On the other hand the Neptune influences don’t die out as the transiting Neptune effect is replaced by progression of the MC to the natal Neptune. The lack of clarity is likely to be a feature of the coming years.

In September and October 2008, Uranus retrogrades back to a square with the progressed Japan Sun, reactivating unsettling events from March this year. The internal political situation continues to look a bit tricky, Saturn opposing Uranus squaring the progressed Sun and Mars: any government stimulus policies will not be having the desired effect. But the overall news is relatively good as the configuration between Jupiter/Uranus and Saturn favourably aspects the country Ascendant.

This is bourn out by the Yen chart. Uranus returns to its March position sextile the Yen’s Sun Pluto conjunction and opposing Mars. March was a strong time for the Yen and at least some of this strength is likely to return in October.

By November, Neptune’s trine to the progressed Japan Sun, weakens things but not enough to be serious. However Pluto returns to its position in January – conjoining the Japan Jupiter- this suggests reference to the credit problems – if Japan has any exposure it will come to light now but on a positive note, it may also be the start of Japanese financial institutions buying international ones – certainly having Pluto trine the progressed Ascendant in December and into early 2009 is a sign of strength.

In the Yen chart, November also looks positive. Uranus continues to provide underlying foundations to the currency as it trine natal Pluto, and though it is now opposed by Saturn, the Jupiter trine will offset this. Pluto also trines the natal Ascendant in the chart, and Jupiter trines the progressed Mercury and Mars. On balance the best major currency to be in this month.

December is a bit more mixed for the Yen. There will be a lot of currency switching this month, which might be a result of the consolidation or publication of further banking issues mentioned or a rate change elsewhere.

2009
The late 2008 Japanese economic strength continues in January- as Japan benefits from the global influences – as well as the Pluto aspect above, Jupiter trines the Pluto Neptune conjunction and progressed MC and then transits the chart MC. Although Neptune continue to conjoin the Japan Sun, it is also trine the progressed Mars, a chance to attain business goals, even if political problems are ongoing.

Jupiter’s opposition to progressed Uranus continues some of the volatility in the Yen chart, but as Jupiter is trine the progressed Sun, and conjunct the Moon, this is again reasonably positive. However since Jupiter is no longer supporting transiting Uranus, there may be some negative impact from the transit of Saturn over the Yen Mars. However on balance the trines to the natal Sun and Pluto still look good throughout January and most of February.

February however is less good for the general economy. Pluto opposes the progressed Mercury, and so bad news may seep out of the woodwork. The mixed effect of the Saturn Uranus opposition making positive aspects to the ascendant but challenging, square, ones to the leadership is again emphasised. So by March it is back to the disputes and disruptions of Uranus square the progressed Mars.

It is not surprising then that the Yen chart shows Pluto conjoining the Yen Saturn and squaring its progressed Venus. As this is the first such transit in the history of the currency in its current form, this is likely to be significant. It is not generally good for value: a similar transit suppressed the value of the euro in its early years. A look at the square and opposition in the early 1920s and in 1973 will help identify the likely trend.

April onwards is characterised by the Neptune/Jupiter/Chiron. In May the progressed Moon is on the Descendant – the focus is likely to on other countries. The Neptune configuration is trine the Japan Moon – beneficial then for the people in general, but it is also widely square the progressed MC, goals and direction are likely to be thrown out of the window by events then. This is reinforced by the transit of Uranus to the country’s Mars. Expect hyperactivity, high levels of trade and possibly other types of disruption ( in 1925/6 the last time this aspect occurred the elites had to appease the people with law changes, there was a change of emperor, the start of fishing disputes and Japan’s expansionist period began)

The Neptune conjunction squares the Yen MC. This is in keeping with what we have seen elsewhere- speculation is indicated on a major scale. However in this case the conjunction also trines the Yen Jupiter Venus conjunction, which seems to suggest speculation in its favour.
However, Uranus is square these two planets too and yet is also trine the progressed Jupiter in the Yen chart and sextiles the MC. On balance the currency looks a favoured choice but it is not a cut and dried situation.

On balance the summer does not look too bad for Japan, but we are not seeing untrammelled dynamism here, there is some economic strength (again Pluto trines the progressed Ascendant) but too much external and internal uncertainty, and with Uranus conjoining Mars there is an underlying restlessness.

In August 2009, Pluto repeats its November 2009 aspect to Jupiter – again suggesting that Japanese banks (or even other companies) might capitalise on weakness elsewhere in the world economy.

With most of the outer planets retrograding over previous positions, we can expect the Yen to show a repeat of trends earlier in the year in July and August. With the exception of square from the progressed Moon to natal Pluto and the Sun which suggests some underlying dissatisfaction (no situation benefits everyone), the strength is still there in the currency.


The next couple of months are harder for the Japanese people, with Saturn square the country’s Moon, more problems leaking out of the woodwork ( Pluto again opposing Mercury), and the repeat Neptune conjunction this time a couple of degrees further back on the country’s Sun . Even though there is a positive trine to the progressed Sun/Mars conjunction, the overall feel is that there is more negative impact on the country at this time than earlier in the year. The double impact of the progressed MC conjoining the country’s Neptune and the progressed Ascendant squaring the progressed Neptune is at its peak at this time suggests either falling into a slight depression or an erroneous belief that everything is going to be well. The Trine of transiting Saturn, however, does not suggest a deep recession, more a maintenance of the ongoing state of slight inertia, and with Saturn square Jupiter, it is more likely that there will be a negative disposition in the country rather than delusion about the situation.

In the yen chart Jupiter squares the Pluto/sun conjunction. Again an indication of major funds flows, but this might have more to do with the actual investment than with speculation. Uranus is still trine the chart’s Uranus which is not by itself a negative aspect – rather one that indicates positive but unexpected changes. Saturn square Venus and Jupiter, however, suggests reduction in value, even though its sextile with progressed Uranus is mor supportive. On balance not a good month for long term trading.

December 2009, is a different matter, as Uranus makes its last square to the progressed Japan Sun and Mars. Expect some radical shifts in both business and political spheres, before 2010 begins.

The effect on the Yen is mixed too. Pluto is again conjunct the natal Saturn. But this time transiting Saturn is square it and conjoining the now close conjunction between progressed Sun and progressed Venus. The Neptune configuration is close to a sextile with the chart’s progressed Ascendant and Neptune. This suggests a conflict between speculative buying and assessments of fundamental value.

2010
Pluto conjoins progressed Jupiter in January – which by itself suggests a repeat of the financial consolidation already referred to. But this time Saturn is opposing Jupiter. Restructuring is needed, although at this point it can be achieved without too much pain as transiting Jupiter is trine Japan’s Jupiter.

Uranus’ final transit of Japan’s Mars in February continues a momentum for change that has crept up during 2009. But now it is more open as Jupiter crosses the progressed Descendant, and there is obstruction as the balance of power shifts ( Pluto quincunx Pluto). March continues much of the same themes, from January and February as well as late 2008. And in April though June they intensify as the progressed Moon opposes the natal Pluto. The people are especially restless in May, when Jupiter and Uranus squares the natal moon and there may be political resistance to change with Saturn square the Moon too.

The Neptune configuration continues to be activated in the Yen chart from January to March as a result of the progressed Moon picking up each planets’ influence at this time. Uranus also once again crosses the same degrees. In February these trends are accentuated by the progressed Moon square the MC, trine Jupiter and finally conjoining the Ascendant. This seems to confirm the Japan chart themes of a restless populace throughout these months.

The trend is emphasised in April as Jupiter sextiles the Yen Sun/Pluto conjunction and opposes its Mars and progressed Mercury. Then in May, the progressed Moon on the descendant and square the Yen progressed Mars, multiplies the influence of Neptune stationed on the square.
These two months will mark a critical point in the currency markets.


Over the summer of 2010, the cardinal cross is at its most exact. And its impact on Japan is mixed. Now the country’s Jupiter opposite progressed Mercury is the focus. This might have an impact on issues such as communications, including freedom of speech, and thus on trading routes. However the positive trine/sextile aspects to the Neptune/progressed MC conjunction mean that still doesn’t suggest deep problems.

In the Yen chart the square between Saturn and the progressed Sun/Venus conjunction is once again activated by Saturn and Pluto, but now with the added impact of a square from Uranus and Jupiter. More speculation, less value for the Yen, would be the interpretation if it were not for the corresponding trine to progressed Uranus and a sextile between Pluto and the progressed Moon. The aspect on balance does not bode well, but where compared with other currencies the Yen still looks a better bet.

The last few months of 2010, merely continue the themes in the Japan chart, but with less intensity.

In the Yen chart, the square of Neptune to the MC and mercury and to progressed Mars takes precedence from September to November. This suggests that there is no awareness of fundamental value at this time, merely buying on faith. The Pluto/Saturn square also continues, moderated a little by the factors already mentioned depressing the value of the Yen.


It is difficult to predict what the net effect of these conflicting factors is so early on. But by December when Saturn conjoins the progressed MC we should expect the currency value to be depressed.

2011
In early 2011 the situation is much the same. By February Saturn transits the Japan Uranus, but other than added restrictions in some areas there is nothing new. The Neptune square is continuing and despite the boost given from Jupiter sextiling the Neptune/Pluto conjunction, it is hard to make the benefits concrete. Japan ought to be doing better than it is, at this point.

Yen holders seem to think so too. The progressed Neptune/progressed Ascendant trine is at its strongest now implying faith in the currency is quite strong.

In early January we still have the effect of Uranus/Jupiter sextile the MC/ Mercury and trine progressed Mars again, offset by the Neptune square to the same points. So no change here from the 2010 position. But in February Jupiter picks up the Saturn/Venus/Sun progressed Square and gives a small boost to the Yen value.

In March/April 2011 we have another critical turning point as Neptune reaches the Yen descendant, and a Saturn opposite Jupiter configuration transits the chart’s progressed MC.

Indeed, the summer of 2011 might seem a positive time – Jupiter sextiles the country’s sun, progressed sun and mars, Neptune sextiles Jupiter and trines the progressed Mercury. All this suggests optimism and dynamism and the nest phase of a few years.

During May through July, Saturn continues to station on the Yen MC, and Neptune on the Descendant. This does not imply a good time for the Yen, but again everything is relative, and Jupiter transits the Yen natal Neptune in May, suggesting inflationary forces even – although compared to other currencies the Yen was not born with quite the same problems reconciling expansion with stability.

In the Japanese chart, by September the few months’ relative respite is over and we are back to the issues of the early Spring. There is more change, probably technologically motivated, as Uranus square Pluto, close to the country’s Jupiter. More restructuring is anticipated. And again there is a feeling of lack of direction as Neptune returns to square Neptune and the progressed MC.

The themes are once again mirrored in the Yen chart. Progressed Mars trines progressed Uranus and is accentuated by the progressed Moon. Uranus again activated the progressed Saturn square Sun/Venus conjunction which is close to exactitude now and Neptune continues to rest on the Descendant. But without the influence of Saturn to mitigate the flights of fancy – this might lead to an unexpected appreciation of the Yen now.

But the last months are a little more mixed currency wise. Saturn opposite the Yen’s Neptune depresses the price and some other tricky aspects reduce the major trend in the last months of the year.

For Japan as a whole, October and November are positive, however, a major Jupiter grand trine with Japan’s Jupiter and its progressed Ascendant, suggest that the country capitalises on its strengths in the global environment at this time. And although Saturn ( government/outside influences) again restrains the impetus for change (Uranus) it does so in a long term enabling and sustainable way ( Saturn trines the Japan progressed Mars/sun conjunction).

Even a bit of mixed December that follows can’t really negate the strength of that positive configuration. Interesting though that the currency seemed to have priced all this in earlier on and is trading in a smaller range now – or perhaps that is because action has been taken elsewhere and everyone is waiting to see what the impact of it is.

2012
The ongoing Japan Neptune square, and its relationship with the progressed Japan MC, continues to prevent a clear perspective of where the country is going long term.

There is inertia in the Yen chart too. Neptune square the Yen progressed Mars is the strongest aspect in January and does not suggest a real direction.

The spring continues mixed in the Japan chart. The Neptune inertia, is offset by Jupiterian optimism and growth. Indeed the country may look particularly positive in April as Jupiter crosses the Japan Ascendant and in May as the progressed Moon conjoins progressed Jupiter.

The Yen is likely to be depressed despite good economic trends, with Uranus still aspecting the progressed square between Saturn, Sun and Venus, and now Pluto reaches the natal Saturn.

In the Japanese economy, there is more constructive planning and optimism for the future in the summer as Saturn again trines the Sun and progressed Sun/mars while Jupiter transits the progressed MC, Neptune and Pluto. Despite the mists of Neptunian lack of clarity, this is potentially a very strong time for the country, when it can build strong foundation and successfully consolidate its economic strengths for the future.

Although with Neptune on the descendant, there is still uncertainty about the currency market as a whole, the Yen gets a new boost in May as Jupiter transits the chart’s Sun and Pluto. The Uranus Pluto square to the progressed configuration is replaced by a sextile between Neptune and Saturn- not a sign of major buying but certainly stabilising, and enough to offset the opposition of Saturn to natal Neptune from May to August.

In fact Jupiter conjunct the Yen MC in June followed by its trine to progressed Sun/venus, suggests that the economic benefits may be reflected in the currency value at this time.

But there is a need to seize the moment as, from August onwards, things are more mixed. The Pluto Uranus square picks up the progressed Moon then and although there is continued strength in September, there is sign of less positive developments from November as Saturn quincunxes Neptune and Pluto and Uranus in the form of external shocks disrupts the economic environment (squares Jupiter) again.

And the Yen is mixed too for these months. The weakening effect of Neptune square progressed Mars reoccurs, despite some sustaining aspects from Saturn to Jupiter and, in October, to the Ascendant. By December the Pluto conjunction with the Yen’s progressed Saturn suggests that fundamentals are being re-evaluated for the future. It is a mixed but not bad picture as Saturn is supportive and Jupiter is boosting the currency’s reputation through a trine to the progressed MC. With Uranus conjoining the progressed Moon, expect some volatility as the factors are weighed against each other again.



Charts:

Japan: set for promulgation of the Meiji Constitution, 11 February 1889 10.46 LMT -9.19 Tokyo. Source N. Campion, Book of World Horoscopes, time amended
The Campion chart is set for none but I have used a reported time of around 10.40-10.50 a.m. available at:
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=1KiZNIqF7A0C&pg=PA110&lpg=PA110&dq=%2211+february+1889%22+japan&source=web&ots=hxeMLXlfoq&sig=IGlao-fdRycVg8w9sJ88hp5gHX0&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=10&ct=result#PPA110,M1

Furthermore, the constitution did not come into effect until November 1890. I would prefer to use that date. However there seem to be two dates reported for this ( 25th and 29th) and no time and as I don’t have the time for significant library research at the moment it is not possible to confirm which is correct. Hence I have stuck to the promulgation chart.

Alternative charts exist for post WWII, but for my purposes I am looking for the earliest identified chart that is associated with the Japanese identity rather than with a specific regime.

The yen:
Yen Currency Act, 10 May 1871 Osaka, Japan. Rectified to 12.25 pm LMT -9.02
This is another chart that seems to be shrouded in uncertainty. A number of dates are possible, representing the foundation of the mint, the currency act signing and its announcement. I have used the Act signing date.

(* with Neptune transiting the Japan sun at present I had no chance to tie down a date and time for any of these charts!)