Saturday, 15 July 2017

More global gadding 2017

It is July and we need another update don't we?


This time I've summarised each forecast. Generally the political ones are spot on, but there are some weaknesses in the currency and market forecasts- it is easier to see drama than it is more of the same of course so I expect that imbalance to right itself in the coming 3 years!
For completeness here is the summary, but all a reader needs to know is nothing has changed my view of the risk areas:
Uk and sterling. I anticipated uncertainty in the period May to July, and leadership issues in the Sterling chart. Though I never expected the election itself, in retrospect my predictions make sense.
The FTSE prediction was for surprises and maybe glitches, but while the world as a whole has been affected by the computer viruses  in this period the FTSE in particular has not been directly affected.
My Euro prediction was reasonable enough, the countries also not too bad. In France I foresaw the beginning of challenges with a new  government’s policies- we’ll have to see whether I am right in the longer term . I expected Germany to have tougher stats than seems to have been the case, but in Italy the political events are in line and Spain continues to track the expected path. There was little to say about Switzerland, Ireland or Iceland but lots to say about Greece, which pushed the can a little further with another bailout in June. Problems there are still expected later this year but more particularly from mid 2018.
In the US, things go on much as expected with more of the same focus on “fake news” etc.  Expect events there to accelerate in the second half of August. The dollar forecast was fair and the Nasdaq too but I underestimated the strength of the Dow.
Mexico’s position turned out better than I expected, although my expectation of increased drug violence was correct. However my general prediction meant that the Peso has done the opposite of what I forecast which is not good (!) ( well, unless you held Pesos that is). On the other hand Venezuela continues to fully reflect my expected path to destruction and I was right that there would be another attempt to reform the Bolivar. I didn’t understand the Brazil forecast when I wrote it- after all the previous head had been removed for corruption so why was I still seeing it in the charts, but I wasn’t wrong ; the sage continues. In Argentina I though things would look better and so it proves – the jury is still out on the Peso long term but it is performing exactly as I expected.  
In China there wasn’t much to say and the focus was on “wars of words” which seems to have played out with North Korea warnings. Neither the Renminbi or Stock market did anything dramatic and my forecasts for these were average.
In Hong Kong the HK$ continues to survive  albeit with less relevance and the forecast wasn’t particularly interesting either but the Hang Seng’s did contain an expectation of volatility which proved to be the case due to some individual companies.
In Japan there is also little to say, though things were perhaps better than I expected. I was pretty much right on the Yen but less so for the Nikkei where my timing was definitely out.
Indonesia’s forecast is always difficult due to lack of information. It wasn’t bad but it is difficult to compare the reality accurately. The Rupiah forecast was not very good.
However my forecasts for the Koreas make up for it and especially events in North Korea which are, sadly, proceeding   exactly as anticipated.
 India was pretty much correct too as was the Rupee forecast. But the Sensex forecast was wrong in April in particular though otherwise ok. Pakistan as expected continues without much changes.
Russia was a pretty good forecast too, though arguably despite all the international issues it has remained rather calm. The Rouble forecast was ok but not stellar.
Turkey continues to be interesting, showing government strength when that is not necessarily a positive even if it is technically so!  The Liar forecast was good too.
Israel also continues to match expectations but not necessarily in a good way. Iran did fight off the hardliners in the election but it is by no means clear that they have accepted defeat. I still expect some issues here going forward. Saudi really lived up to my expectations, shaking up the line of succession, threatening Qatar and proceeding with Aramco plans.  This one Is definitely shaping up to be worth watching.
There is little worth saying about Canada or Australia, though the latter does have some economic wobbles it still continues to be a success and I expected this to be the case compared to elsewhere in the next few years. South Africa completes the set with the water issues I expected and on-going political wrangling and a vulnerable economy but perhaps not as tough as I thought.