2017
It is not surprising then that the signs for January and
February 2017 are challenging – although it appears that the biggest issues
come from externally ( and specifically finance and perhaps relations with
China etc) rather than internally. Nevertheless the coming year could have
election at prettymuch any time depending on the timing and outcome of the
impeachment process.
Despite all this the mood amongst the people is very good.
There could be a bigger focus on the people in the country
in the period March to May and some risk of major undermining. There is a big
risk of disinformation too, maybe more corruption allegations and perhaps
confusions as to the authority of the acting leader. It should be a good time
for development though.
Things look ok for the leadership – though this probably
does not relate to the now impeached Park – despite the risk of overreaching.
June to August sees a continuation of the above themes.
Although there is less support for the leadership now. The people may be quite
agitated, although any sort of major disruptive protest is highly unlikely. If
Park is found guilty this could be election time.
September and October see the international and financial
issues reach a head. But other than this and the continued sense that the
people are not getting the full story, things continue to be relatively
positive.
Compared to many other countries we have viewed, this one
looks calm at this point.
November and December include the scheduled election period
( although as mentioned this could be changed due to the results of the impeachment
). There is still a lot of misinformation and confusion but the outcome seems
to be no change of leadership although the year end indicator is of some shift
in the overall government power.
January and February 2018 see the government and the people
in agreement. However that is the only positive in this period. Misinformation
continues and now there are some more serious issues regarding economic
development funding as well as budgets. Making progress on policy is hard.
March to May sees the people in an expansive mood- but not
necessarily a positive one. Financially the country is entering a new phase
which might be unsettled.
Whereas before there was merely disinformation, now the
confusion surrounds the leadership which may be proving weak.
It is a more tricky time than all of the previous year in
many respects.
The leadership weakness or confusion continues into June
through August. And there are definite issues regarding ability to pass
policies now.
More serious is a
challenge to the country’s structures which may be financial restrictions but
could equally be issues regarding NK or other countries.
September and October is similar, though now there may be
some instability relating to budgets or resources as well.
The people feel strongly about issues.
November and December sees no let up in the fog of
misinformation that seems to characterise this whole period.
It is a tricky phase, when there is potential for a lot of
short term upsets, although there is still longer term security.
January and February 2019 are somewhat different, although
there is still an issue of misinformation this is becoming less fundamental.
There are, however a number of challenges for the leadership and some major
challenges for the country, quite possibly from other nations-enough to make it
newsworthy on a global basis.
March to June is a mixed and quite intense period when a lot
of things come to a head at once. The government may be suffering due to
weakness/ confusion/corruption or possibly inflation now.
There is a big shake up in economic matters to try to
reconcile budgets with debt etc. Furthermore the external pressures that
characterised the early months are continuing and may lead to tricky
negotiations and overreaction by the government.
August and September time is slightly less fraught. The direct
external problems are less intense but the issues involved in resolving them
continue as does the climate of possible inflation and/or deception.
October and November sees these and the negotiations
continue but is generally a better time for the country. The people though
somewhat misled on some issues are far more motivated and prepared to do what
is necessary to address any economic or political difficulties.
As a result December is a quiet month. The issues linger in
the background but aren’t as immediate as earlier in the year. Budget issues
take precedence.
2020
January and February 2020 are interesting months, but not
wholly bad. There are major global financial issues to contend with now which
creates difficulties for the government. There is also the issue of what could
be ongoing inflation ( but maybe corruption/weakness). Despite all this,
however the people are broadly supportive of policies and although progress in
some areas may be held back by events there is still momentum.
March through to July is even more positive. The country can
overcome any issues now and events may be transformative.
August and September is a little more difficult but there is
big recognition for the government in relation to changes and development.
Likely to be a very positive time for the country in terms of relationships with
other nations.
October and November are interesting for what they say about
the last few years in terms of issues such as corruption/misinformation and or
inflation. The country and people as a whole are definitely beneficiaries
although the government must further negotiate through the challenges.
December is actually a very moderate month. In
contrast to many places, it looks like the country has achieved its goals by
the year end and is recognised for this.
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