The most significant event in India in 2016 seems to have
been the demonetization policy of 8 November. Although this is really a subject
for the Rupee analysis, it has had wider economic and political consequences
that have slowed down the country’s effectiveness at the year end. It will be
interesting to see how this plays out in 2017 particularly given the various
state election scheduled.
Certainly, at first look India’s 2017 prognosis is more challenging
than many of the other countries we have reviewed.
2017
January and February 2017 immediately look “busy” presumably
with the upcoming election campaigning.
Although the people do support the leadership there is some widespread
dissatisfaction. This will in the intermediate term undermine that leadership
There are some elements of economic inertia that are making them unhappy and
prone to objections. Fortunately now,
there are some milder sentiments which should prevent anything escalating.
March to May sees a continuation of this undermining
scenario as there are continued concerns about tepid growth. It is
a critical time when there is potential for shocks internally and from
other sources. But hopefully the balance
of mood remains pacifying.
June and July, although continuing some of the creeping
discontent with the economic position, are relatively calm. Monsoons may be
late.
August to October is more mixed. Some of the negative
sentiment has abated briefly and by the end of the three months there is a
heightened sense of excitement. There are challenges to this period, but they
are short sharp ones rather than longer term concerns.
November and December, however see a return to the earlier
discontent with the economic progress.
But mostly focus is on a changing environment and there is
optimism and expectation for the future despite attempts to criticise policy
direction.
Although January and February start with elements of the
mood of 2017, many things have changed.
The people feel as if they are being restrained or opposed,
which makes them more inclined to object. But faith plays a part in supporting the
status quo.
March to May sees the position improve slightly as people
have more of an outlet for concerns. A change of mood generally leads to more
support for the leadership, although there are still pockets of objection or
protest.
In June to September, despite the background conditions,
there is likely to be much more alignment of leadership and people However despite a feeling of stagnation
within policy and economic circles, there is enough structure and budget to
maintain stability. September sees some outbursts though.
October and November don’t bring much that is new to the
party. But now there can be a big push forward for growth as optimism and
motivation dominate.
December is rather strange. The background concerns are less
prominent and there is a sense of stability and pulling together generally.
However there is also a destabilising effect which might fire up the detractors
– this may be an external financial matter, rather than domestic though.
2019 is an important year for India; of course it is the
year of the next general election among other things.
January to March sees the inevitable challenges to the
incumbent arising. However there is widespread inertia regarding change – much
more of a better the devil you know mood. The reality is that there are two
equally strong positions now.
April to June is likely to be the election phase. There is
maximum objection to the leadership now.
People are more fired up and there may be some attempt to restrain too
much physical manifestation of this. However despite the rather disruptive
conditions/ the lack of plain sailing
there does not seem to be enough momentum to see a change so it is
likely that India will keep the same leaders, marginally.
July to September sees a return to some of the undermining mood
of the pre -election years. Perhaps this is the outcome of not having a change.
There are risks at this time of outbreaks of aggression.
Security must be paramount.
October and November see the last on this long term mood of
underlying dissatisfaction. However there is a tendency for things to be more
obviously unstable with upsets to the normal routine. However it seems that
conciliatory and cooperative actions will overcome this and provided the
government can adjust their stance it should not be too serious.
December is less eventful that the early parts of the year.
However rather than low level undermining of the leadership, we may now have a
more concrete representation of it from the opposition party. Despite this
though the year may end on a highly positive note.
2020 is another key year for development, particularly
regarding financial matters and women’s representation.
January is in fact
the start of a turning point, although it is possible that the impetus
comes from events outside the country rather than in.
February and March are all about the drama, when things go
big and the people may be exposed to unexpected instability ( there may even be
earthquakes etc)
April to June could be very difficult for the people. At
this stage it is hard to pin down the events, but they are definitely major.
There may be natural disasters ( earthquakes or floods- I’d certainly be
betting on a big monsoon season either way) but the indicators may also be pointing to major financial
upheaval, bearing in mind the picture in other countries.
July to September doesn’t really see a let up in the events
completely, but there is a toning down of intensity. However there may be real
challenges for the leadership now as the people are not supportive and this is
a big opportunity for opposition.
Although the people feel constrained in October and
November, and the leadership may be overturned,
there is a sense that the period is transitionary.
December ends 2020 with one final big bang before the environment
changes to something more moderated.
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