2017
There is still underlying instability as January and
February 2017 arrive. However there are also stabilising influences too. The
picture is quite good for the leadership, it seems that the country feels it is
on the right track regardless of what the outside world thinks.
This picture continues through March and April. But now the
people feel restricted and everything seems like a bit of an uphill struggle.
May and June are not specially exciting. There is lots of
room to make progress with technology and innovation now. But there are some
restraints on trade.
July to September sees a return to some of the conditions of
the early part of the year. But the positive opportunities continue and they
are encouraged by the government.
Indeed September looks to be a month when developments see a
real boost.
October to December is more of a mixture. We see a return to
underlying instability, which may be physical (earthquakes) again – (something
that continues at a low level throughout 2018 too) and a return to some of the
restrictions of May. But the most important issue is that these restrictions
are more widespread, affecting people, the leadership as well as industry and
communications. However there re also a series of communications which
could be positive. Even December is a
difficult time when there are financial pressures related to debt and budgets.
As a result, January and February 2018 start with the people
rather fired up. Recessionary /structural conditions continue despite policies
and optimism is subdued. However the most interesting events now relate to
relationships with other nations and how this affects the government, which may
overreact.
March and April are all about the people and their response
to the last six months. Expect some to
demand changes, even in relation to the government, and there is a further
risks of the leadership overreacting once again. But also expect that there
will be big steps in the right direction now, technology and development wise.
Nevertheless there are still financial/budgetary concerns.
May and June see the disconnect between the people and
leaders continuing, but more muted.
There is an opportunity for changes in government policy and
even within the government which may help. Once again relations with other
nations tend to dominate. All in all the first six months of 2018 are very
interesting for the country.
July to September sees the people shift to being more
dynamic and trying to address the structural concerns. There are likely to be
ongoing budgetary adjustments and attempts to create a shift in structural
issues. But the challenges from economic relations with other nations continue.
October and November still see the people trying to make big
steps forward despite the ongoing structural matters which are magnified at
this time.
But it also sees escalation in energy campaigning for
changes in the forthcoming elections
December see a shake up in government but it does not look
like a complete change of leadership as the signs are quiet positive. The key
issues are debt and financing.
The first two months of 2019 are somewhat moderated. The
government is starting anew and making adjustments to policies and budgets
accordingly.
March to June sees a shift, then, in the focus of the
country, towards domestic concerns.
This does mean policy changes and a break on some
developments but there is a positive opportunity to grasp now.
Although the opportunity continues in July to October, the
period is destabilising for the people.
There is a lack of clarity about the goals, timescales and
changes being made.
November is much of the same.
Emotions may run high and there may be major opposition in
relation to technological matters at this time.
December may thus be quite difficult, with disruptive
influences to the fore and objections to change and technology. The month lacks
direction and there is major opposition to the leadership who may have taken
too big a step in their attempt to change the structural issues.
2020
January 2020 sees these issues continue and the people
uncooperative and upset.
February looks like being somewhat better, despite the
ongoing issues as there is enough momentum to drive things forward.
Still so much change
is very unsettling.
March sees a major breakthrough, but it also sees the
government having to make some concessions and the country very much in the
global eye.
This remains true in April to June which is a period of
reassessment and adjustment generally.
July and August are more moderated although some of the
challenges remain, the people are more amenable and there is some positive news
regarding economic matters- although this is qualified somewhat.
September to November is generally much better, with the
people’s mood shifting and aligning with the leadership.
While there continue to be difficulties this is also a
period for constructive growth.
December thus sees a completely changed situation, where the
structural issues can be constructively addressed ( though not solved) and where Japan is in focus widely, even though
the leadership may have to make further concessions.
Comments