Because for most intents and purposes North Korea is cut off
from most of the rest of the world, nobody,
in the West at least, would really care a damn about the country and whether or
not its people were oppressed or not if it weren’t for its focus on military
capabilities and its increasing status as a nuclear power. The fascinating
thing is that because it is cut off no one can do anything significant about
it! It seems unlikely the situation will change over the next 4 years, but we
know by now that the unexpected can happen anywhere so we have to check.
It is always difficult to do a detailed forecast for the
same reasons, lack of information. But we’ve successfully identified leadership
changes and border escalations in the past so we can but try.
January and February 2017 seem to be intense periods for the
NK people. For some reason the world seems more concerned with their situation
now. There is an indication that
financial and resource pressures may have intensified. However, there is also
an indication of more military developments and more coordinated and
constructive than before. There is no indication of outright conflict though.
The situation continues between March and May with the
people very much in support of the leadership. Indeed there may be some short
term positive news economically. However there may be some dramatic surprises
in relation to the leader; but perhaps the idea that there is a sense of
instability about him is not surprising ( he seems to have internalised it
quite well!). There is far less focus on military issues now.
June to August however sees some return to these. There are
compromises to be made regarding the people and
military matters. It is still a time when economic issues are improved
despite long term indicators of challenges.
September and October are interesting as they see the people
and leadership opposed. There is once again a focus on military issues but it
is less well managed now and there may be short term escalation in related matters.
Some days may be tricky though there is little evidence of any long term
conflict.
November and December actually see the people reach a
turning point but they seem to be fully aligned with the government. There are,
once more, some surprises in relation to the leadership, and indeed its
relationship with the people.
2018
It is a more tricky time with challenging relationships with
other nations, an increase in misinformation and a tendency for the leader to
use big threats to consolidate his position.
This mood characterises the whole of 2018
Indeed, January and February 2018 are much like the end of
2017, although perhaps with less aggravated behaviour.
There are still economic resource challenges and confusion.
And there is even more restriction of communication than usual.
There is a continued risk of the country expanding its
nuclear capabilities as evidence of the leader’s success to the world.
Although this remains the case throughout the next 3 months,
March to May is a period of change. It could be more tricky than usual for the
people. It is also the beginning of a phase where the leadership is perceived
as without clear direction/ weak ( perhaps ill) or more deceptive than normal.
This is likely to be a worry for other nations.
At the same time there is evidence of big developments,
changes to strengthen the economic position. This may possibly mean more
maverick behaviour. It won’t be clear exactly what is happening.
June to August continues these themes and is particularly
hard for the people who do feel unable to act.
The grandstanding by the leader is likely to continue.
September and October are more positive months with the
clear alignment of leadership and people
being well promoted.
There continue to be surprise developments though these seem
to be more economic than anything else.
November and December are likely to be more moderate months
from an international point of view. Events are likely to be more economy
related than anything else. The mood is mixed.
2019 sees a likely
increase in the military focus.
January and February are again months when there is
confusion surrounding the leadership as well as the country’s power.
There are mixed signals now- on the one hand the country
seeks to expand and show off on the other there are factors making it more
cautious and indeed ineffective.
March to June begins a distinctly more aggressive phase.
There are indications that there will be some general low key dissent
internally over term structural matters and it may well be this, together with
a noticeably challenging economic situation at one point, which creates a more
disruptive situation. There can definitely be outbreaks of aggression now and
it would be easy for some of these to escalate. My only question would be to
what extent this is internal or external.
July to September is more moderate though. There is a lull
in the mood where other economic and power matters take precedence in the eyes
of the world.
October and November however see a return to the earlier
picture. It is a difficult phase ( there is a return to the confusion/weakness)
surrounding the leader and this seems to enhance the more aggressive stance.
This time at least some of the issues relate to an escalation of conflict with
other nations.
December remains unstable and uncertain. There is definitely
a potential for radical and contrary behaviour now.
A very risky time.
The broader mood does not really let up in 2020.
It certainly does not in January and February. There is
continued aggressive or military action, which may even make things difficult
for the people.
However the people and leader appear to remain aligned and
there can be huge consolidation of power in the country now. The leadership
benefits from propaganda and is enabled.
May to July is a long period where the leader and the people
seem to benefit from huge power but not without cost to external relationships.
This power could be nuclear related but is more likely to be related to large
financial flows.
During the latter part of this time the people are
highlighted
There may be the need to quell agitation from some quarters.
August and September is a little like January and February,
but actions are much more moderated.
In October and November the focus of the immense power seems
to be mainly on resource and economic matters. There is little to suggest
conflict of any kind.
December is a month of change. Whereas in many countries
this is more of a wait and see the new dawn and relatively calm, here it is all
about radical economic changes. A lot of adjustment and resource challenges
result. There is a permanent shift in the culture of the country via the
people.
Comments