The last forecast
period 2013-16 was moderately positive for Iran- as the forecasts predicted,
from even 2011 onwards the more open disputes with the country would decline.
That was the case, leading eventually to the nuclear agreement and easing of
sanctions in the country.
The new US presidency, however, throws this all up in the
air. The combination of that with stories that Iran are increasing missile
programmes etc,( though frankly most of us would do so under similar
circumstances!) make the current
situation, where Iran is one of the most stable and peaceful nations in the
Middle East, very vulnerable.
I am sure that in
Iran there must be deep concern about the direction policy will now take. It is
also a difficult year for such challenges with elections coming up.
The elections are due to be held on 19th May. It
looks like March to May will be a worrying time for the people. There is also
some risk of a war of words internally in the election run up - In 2009 a
similar indicator reflected protests in relation to the elections.
There is a small possibility that this will manifest externally
with the US or its ME allies but the indicators are not pointing to external
relations particularly. Anyway the country is more inclined to talk tough
rather than act it at this time.
Also possible are technical (IT) issues- (indeed further
references to communications in this analysis should also be read in this way
too)
As a result it does not look like re-election is all plain
sailing for the leadership, and although there is nothing to suggest a dramatic
change now either, the balance could definitely become rather more hardline.
June to August also has indicators of some unexpected
communications, and though these will be relatively moderate compared to those
of the pre -election days – they may well be longer lasting and therefore more
concerning in the long term.
The period also sees the government ( whether new or old)
consolidate power and shore up its relations with those that do support the
country. It may well continue to consolidate its military force too given the
risks of a more aggressive US and Israel, not to mention all the other ME
pressures such as ISIS.
September and October see the mood continuing, though there
are less policy developments now. The country is in a period of major
transformation but this seems to be received relatively well by the people at
this point.
There is, however, a
return to the more threatening language. There is a “I’m not playing anymore
and I’m going to take my ball and go home” feel to this period. (It’s not clear
at this stage whether this is initiated within the country or is a response to
outside pressures. The picture will become clearer by July).
November and December are more like June to August in mood,
with the leadership in power orientated mode. Furthermore, there is more than
just a risk of heated exchanges of words now- there is a risk that these could
result in actions too. Again, it is hard to say whether the country is the
initiator or is responding to outside threats. It certainly represents a
noticeable medium term turning point – in a cycle that began 3 years ago, but
also in the wider 6 &12 year timeframes.
2018
January and February 2018 is really just a continuation of
late 2017. Though on a positive note there seems to be some financial
stability.
However, whereas before the leadership was only slightly deflected from its path by
events, now it could become unstable. It is a time of radical shifts in
direction.
There is more evidence now of external relationships being
involved than in 2017.
March to May sees the potential for the leadership to be
involved in more radical shifts. But in other ways this is a much less intense
phase than the last 12 months, though that does not mean that it is without its
challenges.
The most obvious of these has to so with a change in the way
the country communicates. It is now more inclined to be outspoken with big
speeches rather than to just make short sharp comments which antagonise.
June to August sees another period where the country is clearly
consolidating its power and where the leadership appears to be strengthened by
that. But other than that this is less a more even tempered phase and the
economic conditions look rather mixed.
September and October see another, perhaps at first imperceptible,
change as communication becomes more measured in the longer term.
In the shorter term however there may be some sudden big
announcements which shake things up. Perhaps this again relates to the
leadership, as it is another phase where radical shifts are likely.
At the end of the period, there is some opportunity to make
progress in developments or propaganda matters
November and December are generally better months for the
country. It feels like a lull.
There are less shocks and outbursts and although the
government may feel under pressure there are no direct challenges.
2019 is however the second year where the leadership in the
country is unsettled or unsettling.
January and February are pivotal months for the people who
may not be totally in agreement with their leadership.
They are also challenging months for resources and perhaps
women. February is also a time when faith matters may be questioned or when
water related matters come to prominence. Given the indicators of links to
other nations now, this might be a dispute over rights- the position isn’t
especially bad for the country though.
March to May sees the beginning of a longer phase (approx. 2
year) which may weaken the more recent fundamentals and image of the country.
There is also a hint of challenges to come perhaps resource related.
It is also another time when big announcements or
communications may surprise. It is a better time for economic resources and for
women.
June to September sees the people really unsettled, perhaps
disruptive, wanting change. But it also
sees another phase where the government consolidates the country’s power. There
really do seem to be a lot of questions about whether the country is headed
now.
There are connections to the events of February and once
again this may relate to other nations- perhaps decisions now allow movement to
the next stage.
October and November see a continuance of the unsettled mood
within the country. It is similar to the previous quarter but now there is a
clearer opposition to some of the leadership policies. However continued
consolidation of power will reconcile the too. There is some minor aggravation
in October, when comments get out of hand, but this seems to resolve quickly.
December is the beginning of the final period characterised
by sudden outbursts of communications.
Other than that it is a mixed time, when there may be both
good and bad news, but when there is more restraint than has been the case for a while.
2020
2020 may be a good year for economic stats and or women in
the country.
January and February are intense months everywhere and of
course in Iran that means more “assertive” language. As mentioned at the end of
2019, this is a phase prone to outbursts.
It is a challenging time but not without some improvements
in resources
March to July is a time when the people are extremely
motivated, at first to have their say, later perhaps to protest more obviously,
but there seems to be a sense of freedom for them so it is not too serious.
There is a continuing sense of confusion over the identity
of the country though. The period also includes a surprising key moment for the
country in terms of its world position or how it is perceived.
The surprises continue into August and September, which are
in many ways similar to the early part of the year. Events, which may be local
or global, continue and even pick up
pace now.
October and November, have things coming to a head globally
and here is no exception. Though there are far worse places to be at this time.
Indeed there is almost a sense of changes being beneficial and helpful for long
term development. Nevertheless there is a sense of confusion.
December itself seems to be a month on the edge, as the
environment changes but the impact of
this on the people has yet to be fully realised until January 2021.
There may be radical shifts in aims and goals by
the end of the year.
Comments