I thought some of the feedback I received from friends and others was worthy of exploring. Here are the comments and my responses:-
It’s not very cheerful is it?
I can certainly see why some people might think this- although I think it was pretty positive of me not to predict the end of the world in 2012.
But, a truly bad event for everyone is, thankfully, very rare. Even catastrophes present opportunities for some. And when it comes to financial matters there are always winners as well as losers. Crises points are choice points. We are all free to choose how we respond.
I write from the perspective of the status quo. The purpose of my posts is to indicate when big changes may occur; these will have negative implications for those who cling to the status quo, but for those who embrace the flow, the opportunities can be unlimited.
So, rather than having me write a lot of platitudes and uplifting twaddle, if you throw away your preconceived notions of what is economically good and bad in the world, you will see that what I write is as positive as you first believed it was negative.
There is a lot of text. Could you make the postings shorter?
Yes. There is a lot of text. Let’s face it most blogs are commentary of current topics in whatever field. Mine isn’t a blog in that sense- what I am doing is publishing full articles in blog format, because it’s a convenient one.
So, sorry, there is a lot of text but I am covering long time periods and doing a lot of analysis. Either such breath and depth is useful or it isn’t. If you like everything in KISS mode and just a few bullet points you probably aren’t the right audience for this blog.
I could break it down into smaller bites and post more entries, but that would just mean the information would become more disjointed. But I will do so whenever it makes sense.
There are a lot of technical astrological references. Can’t you make it friendlier to non-astrologers?
This is a fair point. And, I could write a much shorter and pithier article if I just stuck to the predictions with no explanations. But the problem is that with no explanations, there is no evidence for my forecasts.
My blog is a tool for refining and building on the model. We need to know what was said and why in one year in order to revise and expand upon what will happen in the next.
I have considered also posting “executive summaries” which just extract the bare predictions. However the blog format doesn’t let me post two things together in parallel so I haven’t found a good way of addressing this yet. Nevertheless, I am still thinking about this problem and I might improve it in future.
You claim to be an economist but you don’t do any economic analysis
I presume this is a compliment…..
A lot of my understanding of markets, economies, monetary systems etc. does come from my economics background. However, it is true that I don’t use any economic models to make my forecasts. Since most economists get it wrong, that is not necessarily a bad thing…..
Economic forecasting depends on models constructed for the purpose, often by the user. I have a model in the form of the solar system which I did not construct (the rumours of my divinity are grossly exaggerated), and which therefore allows me to be more objective than if I used an economic one. And since mixing models is like mixing metaphors- not terribly successful and open to ridicule - I will stick to just the one.
Your analysis of the Iran/Israel situation shows distinct bias in favour of…..
Both options have been suggested. Bias, like beauty, is mostly in the eye of the beholder.
So, no, my analysis doesn’t show any bias. Actually by the time I had written both elements, I was irritated by both parties keeping repeating the same themes over and over and frankly didn’t care either way what the outcome was. The last line of each section gives some indication of my total detachment.
And a more detailed example of the above:
I can certainly see why some people might think this- although I think it was pretty positive of me not to predict the end of the world in 2012.
But, a truly bad event for everyone is, thankfully, very rare. Even catastrophes present opportunities for some. And when it comes to financial matters there are always winners as well as losers. Crises points are choice points. We are all free to choose how we respond.
I write from the perspective of the status quo. The purpose of my posts is to indicate when big changes may occur; these will have negative implications for those who cling to the status quo, but for those who embrace the flow, the opportunities can be unlimited.
So, rather than having me write a lot of platitudes and uplifting twaddle, if you throw away your preconceived notions of what is economically good and bad in the world, you will see that what I write is as positive as you first believed it was negative.
There is a lot of text. Could you make the postings shorter?
Yes. There is a lot of text. Let’s face it most blogs are commentary of current topics in whatever field. Mine isn’t a blog in that sense- what I am doing is publishing full articles in blog format, because it’s a convenient one.
So, sorry, there is a lot of text but I am covering long time periods and doing a lot of analysis. Either such breath and depth is useful or it isn’t. If you like everything in KISS mode and just a few bullet points you probably aren’t the right audience for this blog.
I could break it down into smaller bites and post more entries, but that would just mean the information would become more disjointed. But I will do so whenever it makes sense.
There are a lot of technical astrological references. Can’t you make it friendlier to non-astrologers?
This is a fair point. And, I could write a much shorter and pithier article if I just stuck to the predictions with no explanations. But the problem is that with no explanations, there is no evidence for my forecasts.
My blog is a tool for refining and building on the model. We need to know what was said and why in one year in order to revise and expand upon what will happen in the next.
I have considered also posting “executive summaries” which just extract the bare predictions. However the blog format doesn’t let me post two things together in parallel so I haven’t found a good way of addressing this yet. Nevertheless, I am still thinking about this problem and I might improve it in future.
You claim to be an economist but you don’t do any economic analysis
I presume this is a compliment…..
A lot of my understanding of markets, economies, monetary systems etc. does come from my economics background. However, it is true that I don’t use any economic models to make my forecasts. Since most economists get it wrong, that is not necessarily a bad thing…..
Economic forecasting depends on models constructed for the purpose, often by the user. I have a model in the form of the solar system which I did not construct (the rumours of my divinity are grossly exaggerated), and which therefore allows me to be more objective than if I used an economic one. And since mixing models is like mixing metaphors- not terribly successful and open to ridicule - I will stick to just the one.
Your analysis of the Iran/Israel situation shows distinct bias in favour of…..
Both options have been suggested. Bias, like beauty, is mostly in the eye of the beholder.
So, no, my analysis doesn’t show any bias. Actually by the time I had written both elements, I was irritated by both parties keeping repeating the same themes over and over and frankly didn’t care either way what the outcome was. The last line of each section gives some indication of my total detachment.
And a more detailed example of the above:
You show a picture of Iran’s missiles (the one where they are all fired) but nothing for Israel.
I really, really wanted the pictures to be unbiased. I searched for a picture of Israel’s trial mission in early June but not only did I not find any pictures, I didn’t even find a time or even an exact date anywhere. Surely someone somewhere must have seen them? Anyway, what I don’t have, I can’t post.
I posted the 4 missile picture because it is prettier. Aesthetics matter to me.
I posted the 4 missile picture because it is prettier. Aesthetics matter to me.
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