There have been a number of shifts in US consciousness in
the last decade. Some of these are very long term, some more moderate in nature.
As 2012 ended we saw Obama get re-elected and some
consolidation of power as well as crisis talks on the debt ceiling as 2013 drew
near.
2013
January has started with a positive feel, particularly in
the housing sector and despite the fact that Q4 growth was less than expected.
But the optimism is perhaps a little premature, there is still a lot of
unemployment and inequalities are still increasing. Things might be clearer but
they are a long way from resolved. There is a shakiness to the whole picture
which is belied by the feeling that the economy is improving. This positive but
insubstantial picture continues throughout the first quarter.
The first week of April heralds a change. The culmination of
a cycle which started in 2007. There certainly seems to be more stability, and
more openness. However there is also an awful lot of liquidity in the system .
There will no doubt be more heated debates about the debt but there is no
evidence of any restrictions being imposed in the whole period from April to
June. Indeed the only negative indicator in this period is one that suggests
the people are not impressed by the debt situation, but that is all.
Some of this dissatisfaction continues unto July and August.
But again there is nothing to suggest that there are any restrictions in place.
And there seems to be plenty of support for the President too.
There is a slight darkening of the mood by September, and while the generally
positive developments continue, there is a flicker of restriction as well.
The net balance is stability , but it is stability without a
strong foundation.
The last two months of the year merely repeat these themes,
with just one area of concern – that there will once again be some heated debates
about economic direction.
2014
After a positive 2013, perhaps we can relax and assume that
the problems are behind us. That seems to be what happens in January 2014 when
there is a real sense of the US recovering its confidence.
However it turns out the confidence is misplaced. The 3
months from February to April, bring a change of mood. The level of debt begins
to cause problems for the government, and there is a suggestion that the
inequalities issue is becoming more critical.
The solution once more is to increase the funds available.
But the ability to do so is reduced. The position of the President is subject
to sudden un-stabilising influences. Indeed instability is the name of the
game, there may be technology difficulties and there may even be evest such as
earthquakes.
As a result, the internal debates are reignited by May. And
the President/government must confront a serious and undermining challenge.
There is further instability into June And once again the
solution may be liquidity. It does nothing for the credibility of the country’s
finances though
It is power to the people in August as any financial boost
comes up against a brick wall.
September is more mixed, continuing instability but muted by
faith that it won’t last. Economic news is poor though and there is much
restriction on communications
October is generally a positive month
But the year end sees more of the instability that has
characterised the rest of the year
2015
The New year does not bring a new environment. It is more of
the same.
Indeed January and February can be considered very tricky
for the leadership. And there are real conflicts between the forces that
harness technology for capitalistic purposes and the needs of the country.
Once again, there is an attempt to boost optimism ( either
by financial actions or words), but it doesn’t work at all. There is a sense of
having nowhere left to turn.
The peak of the difficult situation occurs in the second
quarter of 2015. This is a very turbulent time, with debt limit problems and
there is associated economic restriction.
It is all very uncertain and there is a sense of the
idealistic belief in the pursuance of the individualistic American culture
being undermined at this time. Also expect communication and internet difficulties.
The result is conflict by June. However this is not too serious as there are some moderating
influences at play. Nevertheless the country is under some duress at this time.
August sees a continuation of the issues, the people are
agitated and there is still pressure against government.
September sees a new opportunity to improve and looks to be
a better month.
However it is back to severe challenges for the government
in the last 3 months of the year. These continue to be accompanied by conflict,
restrictions, and difficult economic conditions as well as a populace which is
starting to demand fundamental change in the way the country’s finances are
run.
The theme at the year end is that the American dream leads
to incompatibilities between individual
and national achievement. Though one
doubts the US will embrace communism very soon!!
2016
As 2016 starts, the country remains in a real state of
restriction, perhaps even some physical restrictions.
Debt is once again at the top of the agenda as are all the
associated issues that we will have seen in 2015, questions about the economic
model, heated debates and a people demanding that they regain the power of the
Constitution that they have lost to the elites.
The situation shifts a little in the next few months. The
debates become considerably more destructive. And once again, there is always
the possibility that the energies manifest through natural disasters at this
time.
It certainly marks a shift in consciousness as it is
followed by 5 years of weak identity, for the country and its leadership.
The period from May to Nov is also characterised by more
communication disruption and possibly deception. The restrictions that past
quite quickly in January return through this period and it appears that the US
will not be seen in a good light at this time. The debt problems obviously
haven’t gone away and are no doubt part of the reason for the problems.
While the background themes are substantial and negative,
there are short term ups and downs over the period and again the focus on the
effects of the American dream. There may even be a delusionary faith that it
can be easily resolved.
In November, which should, all things being normal, be
election time, shows a little bit more stability. There is sign of the public
choosing a change – but whether that is
just a change in the individual which must happen anyway or a change in the
party is less clear.
2016 ends with continued debate, the people feeling that they
have been deceived and restrictions on action ( possibly preventing protests)
or sit ins.
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