The background theme to the UK over the period 2012-2014 is
one of fundamental slow change to government, structures and the foundations
and roots of the UK identity, . (As I
write this they’ve just dug up and identified Richard III, a light hearted
manifestation but apposite), including
the independence of the regional nations such as Scotland as well as the
demographic shifts. Some of the themes are very long term – lasting to 2020 and
even into 2030. So while there might be some short terms shocks it is the long
term influences that are the real key to the new environment.
The new focus of the influence is initially slow not
radical, but there is an on-going shift in the balance of the economy between
sectors and some dearly held traditions must change. The influence is also
revealing the unsustainability of the polarisation between rich and poor,
Unfortunately much of the damage has been done over the last 3 decades – the
current configuration is merely
uncovering it. There is no possibility to recreate the boom years as they were
built on the quicksands of increasing debt.
We also see around us the impact of government policies in
austerity at work on benefit changes etc. as well as the need to manage health service
costs . The effects are also eroding the sheen of both Investment Banking and
private equity.
We’ve also seen how the wealthy and foreign buyers have held
up the property in central London despite the fact that the market in general
is subdued at best. Property will be a key area to watch in the coming years.
Also resonating to the current themes are all types of
underground matters, power generation – particularly Shale gas, which is a
particularly interesting manifestation of the long term 2011-2016 configuration
2013
It looks as though Feb-March might show some very subdued
economic figures particularly in consumption numbers and financial services. Any
sort of drive, positive or negative will be suppressed. Not a time for action.
Matters are likely to come to a critical point around March.
The UK was protected from the worst of the configurations that occur now, when
they happened previously in the summer of 2012, with the Olympics providing the
outlet for this energy. Now, however, challenges are likely to be more
apparent. These may come in the form of partner country’s upsetting the UK
balance , or by direct political or other confrontation.
There are some influences mitigating the impact but these
are likely to be brief compared to the wider on-going challenges. As a result
of these mitigating factors an otherwise severe challenge will not necessarily
destroy the current leadership.
A turning point occurs in April. It should be a time of
openings and launches and showing the UK to the world, but given the difficult
background this is likely to be both a distraction and an increase in intensity
for the prevailing issues.
The trigger point is therefore May, accompanying the
eclipses that month. Expect announcements and a severe challenge to leadership
at this time.
July looks like it will be back in distraction mode –
perhaps this will be due to the Royal baby. Although the focus on the bank of
England’s new boss will also feature at this time. It looks like a little bit
of light relief time.
But there is another critical point in August, and this sets
the scene for the remainder of the year.
A repeat of some of the themes from May occurs in September/-December
– another peak in the evolution of the underlying trends– particularly around
the first week of November. Expect questions about land and property, wealth
distribution, energy and national identity/independence again. The issue of benefit reduction will again be at the top of
the agenda.
2014
Whilst the worst of the challenges to leadership and
government are over by the start of 2014, we can by no means assume we are out
of the woods and there may be some sudden shocks to come.
January through to March also sees a resurrection of some of
the themes from March 2013.
The influence weakens by April and May sees a particularly
upbeat time. No doubt there will be lots of positive economic data at this time
and well as a general party atmosphere. And of course the usual pre-world cup (
probably misplaced- we’ll look at that another time) euphoria
June through Sept is characterised by liquidity restrictions
– and possibly communications restrictions too. These will have the same issue
of undermining the leadership a little, but perhaps since the timing is over
the summer the effects will be rather more muted. In any case these restrictions
should be over by October when there is another phase of , probably surprising,
positive news.
November to December and into the beginning of the new year is
a bit of a mixed bag though. Remember,
these positive themes are short term – the more fundamental and serious
questions relate to the longer terms trends which cannot be ignored for ever
2015
There is a shift in emphasis in 2015, which will probably be
noticeable by March. A focus on financial restriction shifts to being a focus
on communication restriction; media, information systems, roads etc. could all
be affected over the coming 2 years. But it is not really a new era, in that
many of the wider themes remain.
However, the first quarter is as much of a mixed bag as
December was. On the one hand there is a positive energy carried over from last
summer, but on the other new and greater challenges are emerging to threaten
some key areas such as the City institutions and highlighting the inequality
issues again.
There is a shift in the mood of the people in April/May and
there might be some surprises. However any shocks are pleasant. This would be
the last date for an election of the administration in place from 2010, and does not look too bad for the incumbent party
at all.
The period over the summer also shows some positive shifts
which are not unpleasant.
However the background themes remain and there may be
problems again by the autumn.
The respite from the more severe issues that has been in
place through much of the middle of the year is now ending as the difficulties from
the spring return.
This is most strongly felt by the people in December (
although it is quite possible that this signifies a hard winter spell as it
does a difficult economic climate.
2016
We can expect some focus on the currency in 2016 ( for more information see the separate Bank of England analysis)
There are external challenges to the people briefly at this
time but there is mainly a sense of passivity.
This passivity continues into March and April, accompanied
by some big announcements or media
expansion.
The summer is not too eventful either. But this is
misleading. There is a change in the way the UK people relate that is happening
in the background that will have a permanent impact on the way the country operates
in the future. Given the focus of this on communications it could affect the
BBC, broadcasting or telecoms or it could be a turning point in population composition or language, and even given past
correlations with this point influence the relationship with Australia
Overall the impact for late 2016 looks positive, but a much
trickier phase in building in the wings towards 2020.
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