US and US$
Wow! I did
better than I recalled here.
I correctly
forecast continued monetary expansion through 2011-12 although not at earlier
levels including less focus on the Fed in 2012. I also predicted (as an aside)
that the current president would be returned- even though when writing in early
2008 I did not know who that would be. I had completely forgotten I did this.
Bonus marks all round eh?
85%
Dow
I noted that
there may be recovery in prices in the latter part of 2011, which occurred. In
2012, I saw conflicting themes and no real long term trend. I noticed the
possibility of Neptune/moon depressing things around May, conflicting
directions in June to Sept and noted that Jupiter would reach Pluto in the last
months but failed to explain what that would mean leaving it for 2013.
70%
Nasdaq
My forecasts
for the Nasdaq were for a lot of excitement and volatility in 2011 (except over
the summer when I expected a little calm and a bit of negative sentiment in
Oct/Nov. The resurgent interest in technology stocks obviously helped both the
US markets at this time.
In 2012 I
went for increases in the first few months (right again), a fall back between
March and August (and again!) then up till July and then a down from September (right
yet again!). I also highlighted April May as interesting to watch – and of
course this was the time of the Facebook IPO.
So yes this was a great forecast. AAA (although
of course such a rating hardly exists any more ;-) ) Remember I was writing in
spring 2008! Beat that analysts.
95%
Canada
Another
country entering the period under review from a position of strength, with only
a background Neptune aspect that indicated a sense of inertia to counteract the
latent strengths. I didn’t have much new to say for later 2011, In 2012 I
highlighted a particularly extraordinary indicator around February 2012
suggesting major political change issues.
I forecast on-going
disputes in April to June, but suggested there were positive offsetting
influences by September. I expected the year to end well as Canada harnessed
its strengths to evolve.
So what did that background Neptune entail?
From the Economist in Aug 2011 ‘Some
economists express concern that Canada has followed a similar trajectory in
recent years to that of the United States leading up to its financial collapse
in 2008. Canada's trade surpluses have turned to deficits…. [But].. The biggest
threat to Canada's economy is its intrinsic vulnerability to the outside world.
With a population of 30m, the country does not consume enough on its own to
maintain output if foreign demand dries up:
Economic growth slowed, with annualized
GDP growth up 1.5 percent in the first quarter of 2012,. However there does not
appear to have been anything to support the indicator I saw for February.
However in April a major bill overhauling 50 laws was put forward.
I also particularly
like my 2011 introductory comment that Canada has a real chance to be a leader
in change in the world at this time since Mark Carney became Chairman of the G20's Financial Stability Board in 2011 and was appointed to the Bank of England at the end of 2012.
70% - Whilst I feel I correctly grasped the
background themes I failed on exact event timing
Mexico
I expected
relatively positive economic effects from mid-2011 to early 2012 However the
positives would be accompanied by some hard aspects possibly due to external
events.
In 2012 the
period from March to sept there might be leadership changes and economic
repercussions of wold events. I expected changes in industry too. But Mexico
would still be doing better than many. I thought there might be more political
challenges around November perhaps related to corruption.
The reality
is that Mexico’s recovery from the 2008 global crisis has been impressive.
Indeed net migration to the US is now close to zero.
There was an
election in July 2012 and a change of leader (after a recount due to complaints)
as anticipated. However there have been protests especially by students and
riots even on 1st December.
The drug war
continued to be a problem for parts of the country throughout the period. It is
possible that some of the internal stability that I could see in motion by the
end of 2012 is going to come from the new president’s change of policies
The Peso I
expected to remain relatively unchanged during the latter part of 2011 and a
sense that things were settling down in spring 2012 with a positive end to the
year for the currency.
This was
more or less true. The Peso traded within a small range in late 2011; however
it strengthened in early 2012 before weakening in the pre-election phase (something
I missed). Since then it has been stable.
80% (good generally but perhaps too vague
about the event triggers
Brazil
My Brazil
forecasts do far have been my biggest weakness; let’s see what this period
brings.
With a new
president since the start of 2011, I anticipated that the mid 2011 period would
herald positive consolidation despite less positive change in the
background. The year would end well.
In early
2012 I didn’t expect much change to this. My view was that things would appear
to be going well but the outcomes might not be so clear to people.
In line with the 2011 expectations, by the
end of 2011, Brazil's economy had become the world’s sixth-largest.
Rousseff has enacted measures to
weaken Brazil's currency by about 27 percent; push interest rates to an
all-time low of 7.25 percent; and cajole private-sector banks into lending more
and at lower rates.
The economy
slowed unexpectedly in Q3 2012 although it I still positive.
A very
detailed forecast but still not really saying anything useful.
30%
Real
The Real
chart did show shifts from mid 2011 – with possible monetary restrictions mid
2011. In 2012 there were some mixed signals for the currency, it looked
positive around May but there could be background problems. July looked
positive too. August however suggested a shift but not one that would cause
immediate concern. I saw decline in Real strength in Sept and expected the
currency to be out of favour oct/Nov although December would moderate the new
phase of adjustments.
The Real
began to weaken in the second half of 2011, with volatility as suggested due to
the lack of clear direction. It weakened again in early 2012 vs. the dollar but
has remained within a small range since June.
So a really (pun
inevitable) bad forecast there.
20%
Argentina
I thought
things would still have been going well by the start of the period in question.
Other than some mild problems I expected more of the same for the rest of 2011.
In 2012,
although seeing a broadly pleasant environment continuing, I noted there may be
a tricky time around March but that the stability would remain to July.
Aug/Sept I thought some old issue might come back to haunt the county but that
these issues would be resolved by the year end.
In March
first quarter reports showed a definite downturn in many statistics. In April
it announced the nationalisation of YPF (oil & gas).
Later in the
year the president’s popularity plummeted in the year to August and Moody’s
forecast ( not actual) downgraded the country’s rating in Sept 2012 although
Argentina and in October a U.S. appeals
court in ordered Argentina to begin paying ‘holdout’ vulture funds old debts
although a Nov letter from the NY Fed then gave an alternative view. The
Falklands debate was also reactivated in the year.
70% (good on events less good on background
themes). Disappointing as this is usually one of my best forecasts
Argentinean Peso
The Peso
would be holding its value in late 2011, maybe with a blip in December. February
in 2012 the stability would become more entrenched. Some other difficulties were indicated in
July/Aug but the signs pointed to fair valuation by the year end
Currency
controls were imposed in Sept 2011 but the Peso was more affected by the
overall economic position losing 20% of its value (gradually and steadily)
against the dollar over the 18 month period.
50%
Venezuela
While at the
mid-point of 2011 I expected Venezuela to be riding out any global problems
well, I expected some change thereafter with the beginnings of a shake up or
upsets. So a good year economically but perhaps with unrest later on.
In 2012 – I
noted the coming Saturn return and potential for hardship. However the economic
power would not be substantially reduced in the first part of the year. I
expected some media coverage in June but then the Saturn return in October
looked challenging and I expected quite radical events by the year end.
The reality
was that the country closed 2011 with double the forecast growth due primarily
to oil price increases and the start of 2011 was good. But difficulties were
appearing- booms in housing and inefficiencies in investment were increased
problems.
Chavez was reelected in October 2012, but
in June 2011 Chávez had an operation to remove a tumor He required a second
operation in December 2012 and his health and even survival is now subject to
significant questions. [5] The arrest of a doctor
for revealing state secrets in June/July seems to have been the manifestation
of the communication issue I saw for that time
85% (another bonus for getting the Dec 2012
upset)
The bolivar
I thought
that there might be both a tendency for inflation and restraints over that
inflation (i.e. monetary control) in the latter part of 2011.
In 2012 I
noted that the beginning of the year a key transit to the chart might be the
herald a re-vamp of the currency later, I expected increased trade in the
currency in June but other than this little more news for 2012. It was a case
of watch this space for 2013-14.
In fact the
currency, officially pegged, but trading on black market fell from 8 to 14
against the dollar in 2012 and commentators wondered about the likelihood of
devaluation – but the government were saying no.
75% for spotting potential in advance of
the herd.
South Africa
While having
reservation about the re-activation of a difficult aspect in the country’s
chart I thought that mid 2011 looked good for the government and economy. But I
expected the latter months to be more difficult due to global events.
I thought
there might be some change in early 2012, and some noticeable economic issues.
I then expected a series of mainly economic changes until June when I though
the government might see some difficulties. But while seeing a big mid -year
turning point and expecting changes I felt any leadership shift was still in
the evolutionary stage and actually would manifest later. Furthermore there was
a suggestion of mis-information anyway.
There were
opposition objections to proposals to buy a new presidential jet in June on the
basis that money should be spent on alleviating poverty and there was a wave of
strikes, mainly in mining which crippled the sector, but also farming
in Aug –Oct. 2012 which led to growth forecasts being revised own to 2.5% .
Other than that the future election PR was only just starting to get underway
by the end of the year.
75% - but with upside for the future developments
I expected
the Rand to come under the microscope around Aug -Oct 2011 and the possibility
of re-evaluations.
In 2012 I
saw a brief increase in trading early on followed by talk about what shape the currency
should take going forward. I thought that the last months might bring currency
restrictions.
In
actuality, there was shift in the Rand in 2011. Having topped out against the
dollar in Q3 2011 it started to fall again. While early 2012 saw some gains
being made for a while the trend thereafter was down and some credit agencies
downgraded the country.
However I get bigger brownie points for my
comment about the hard currency forecast as on 11 February 2012, President Zuma
announced that the country would be issuing a complete set of banknotes bearing
Nelson
Mandela's image. Although
trivial in an economic sense it is symbolically important and the fact that
such a matter can be identified in the charts is evidence of the enormous
capacity of the astrology.
85% (75% for the general forecast
95% for the brownie points)
Saudi Arabia
As the major oil nation Saudi was
protected from the worst of the global crisis. However I did think that the
country’s economy could be affected by events in October 2011 which looked like
a critical point.
More key was the November 2011 turning point
even touching the rulers but by early 2012 matters were expected to be calmer. External
events would cast a damper over Feb-Sept 2012, but the most interesting
forecast was for the new cycle starting Nov 2012 suggesting change might be
coming to the country.
Saudi Arabia had a prosperous year in
2011, and 2012, however a few things confirm what the chart indicated, First
there were suggestions that the country invest in some of the Euro country
bonds during the crisis- although Saudi resisted the idea and the crisis
certainly created some debate as Euro countries are Saudi’s main trading
partners. But in the end the crisis was managed by 2012 and had little impact
on Saudi’s growth.
Secondly the other turning point noted:
there was an increase in women’s rights – the intention to allow them the vote
next time was noted in sept 2011, there were also a number of protests by
various groups that occurred from 2011 to 2012 triggered by the Arab Spring but
on a lower scale.
So Saudi was not unscathed just well
insulated.
75-80%
Iran
and Israel
Finally on my list is Iran and Israel.
Unfortunately I have bored with their shenanigans and wish neither existed anymore.
Added to which often Israel transits
show internal (Palestinian) conflict instead. So I didn’t bother to predict
anything for 2011 or 2012. Luckily nothing major happened –just the usual
tedious rhetoric and undermining
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