In the interest of improvements in round two, I thought it would be useful to summarise some of the findings of my 4-5 year exercise.
I had never undertaken more than the odd single forecast before, so this was a huge project (indeed, it is only now that I am starting on the next 4 years, that I realise just how big a project it is).
I didn't expect perfection when I started, but I hoped that I might, on balance be right at least more than 50% of the time. I also wasn't sure of the relative efficacy of using country, currency and stock market charts, nor how much accuracy could be expected by only looking at outer planet transits.
While there have been a few duds, I have been stunned how good some of these forecasts can be. I scored my last set of forecasts when conducting my recent review. (I thought these were the best ones to use as they represented. predictions 3-4 years ahead when I made them).
My predictions were on average about 73% accurate. I had over 90% accuracy in some cases but obviously this was offset by the odd dud.This is good enough to form the basis of an investment strategy which includes stop losses etc.
It certainly ought to be enough to satisfy the sceptics, as anything over 60% is most unlikely to have been by chance. In any case, some of the predictions were so perfect that a sceptic would have to work extremely hard to justify chance.
There are some specific findings which are of interest on an on-going basis:
1) The easiest things to forecast were the timing of leadership changes. The Sun in the country's chart consistently represented the leader of government, whatever form that took, and difficult transits to that Sun represented challenges and changes.
2) Timing of turning points in the stock markets were relatively easy to predict, and there was usually enough evidence to identify the direction of that turn. But the size of the movements was almost impossible to gauge in most cases.
3) It is possible to determine relative currency strength by looking at pairs of currency charts. Otherwise currency charts tend only to reflect the general state of the currency/country and aren't as useful. This confirmed what I had already established over the decade of following the US$/Euro.
4) More charts mean more accuracy. By which I mean, looking at country, currency and stock market charts for a single country could highlight a major event by repeating a theme over all the charts whereas looking at just one chart raised a lot of 'possibilities' but less concrete outcomes. I particularly mention Japan in March 2011 in this regard.
5) Looking at long term transits (rather than transits of the inner planets) is only likely to highlight major disasters that affect the whole country etc. It won't be enough to spot the smaller or localised ones. This is a fairly intuitive finding - the more detail one looks at the more detail one is likely to find.
6) As well as being able to identify turning points in the markets, it is also possible to determine turning points in political will/policies/country's internal mood. Transits to both natal and progressed angles in the charts consistently show this.
7) Transits to the country's Descendant point usually mean events triggered externally - by partner nations etc. and not internally generated ones. However drawing the line between what is internal and what is external is not so easy in an economically globalised one.
8) For the most part ( earthquakes etc aside) events in a country chart do not suddenly manifest in a year out of nowhere. Accurate prediction requires a clear understanding of how the chosen chart is working and how the cycles are unfolding. Mostly we are looking at events evolving slowly until they manifest in full. I definitely prefer to look at the gradual monthly movement of the planets in any given case, rather than just pick a single point in each year and forecast from that. But 'you pays your money you takes your choice' on this one.
9) One of the hardest things about this project was media bias in reporting news. In many cases I struggled to demonstrate accuracy in forecasting as the British media don't report much of what happens, especially economically, in other countries (except the US). And reporting often contains a significant opinion bias which can be difficult to extract if you don't know the reality of that nation.
10) Another unexpected difficulty was boring charts. It is harder to predict when nothing much is happening than when dramatic events are occurring. The need to say something is overwhelming, when sometimes one just needs to accept that there is stability and more the same. Will the Swiss please stand up.
11) The third surprise was an aside from the main project. I tried my hand at football predictions in the 2010 world cup with a good deal more success than I deserved for a first attempt. I still cannot get over how clearly the 500 year old chart I use for Spain plainly showed the exact hour of winning the cup. Despite being an advocate, i am still amazed by the power of astrology.
12) As I knew before I started one's own bias must be overcome. Even awareness of it cannot overcome some bias. I found this particularly hard when looking at currency pairs- desperately wanting the outcome I hoped for rather than objectively considering the astrology.
13) The most surprising finding for me was that it didn't actually matter how well I knew the country/currency/market in order to forecast; the results were as good for country's I had never visited ( e.g Japan) as for ones I knew well. While some of this might be due to the effects described in 10), there was definitely an ability to predict things like leadership changes
14) Sometimes one just has the wrong chart. And, if so, need to change it.
I presume my consistent failures to predict Brazil stem from this problem. But will need to do research to come up with something better.
15) Despite all the successes, none of the above proves that the planets have a direct influence on the earth. My believe is still that the Universe is a huge interconnected network where everything reflects everything else and that it is possible to discover anything if you only ask in co-ordinated and consistent way. The only advantage to astrology is that the planets are 'out there' so there is less 'noise' when trying to make a prediction. I still think entrails would work if you wanted them to and were suitably un-sqeamish!!! I'll stick with the planets though.
So those are my main findings. But I might add to this list later if anything else springs to mind.
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