Ireland: Economic forecast 2008-2012


This week I am diverging a little from my planned schedule to indulge the request of some astrologer friends in, you’ve guessed it from the title, Ireland. So, thank-you to Barry and Ingrid of www.velanova.com for inspiring and contributing feedback for this post.

The reason this is a divergence is, that Ireland, as part of the EU, is the first country I have analysed for this blog that does not have its own currency. Ireland does have a stock market, but we won’t be concerned with that directly today, we are interested in the economic and political state of the country itself over the coming years.

These fortunes are in some way tied to the fortunes of the Euro and as a result the Irish government has one less tool at its disposal for managing financial policy. Given how many tools there are and given the ability of economists and politicians everywhere to stupidly and wilfully misuse the ones they do have, this can be no bad thing. It does change the way we interpret the chart, however.

And which chart? Obviously the history of the Ireland in the past few centuries has been a little turbulent, but the country now known as Ireland, as opposed to Northern Ireland, has been peaceful, and we need a chart that reflects that ideology as well as a more outward looking/international perspective.

Finding the right chart for every entity considered is one of the burdens of the average astrologer, and I am no exception. Such research and backward analysis to find the right fit often absorbs more time than the prediction itself. Using other astrologer’s choice of chart is only viable if they give detailed reasons for their choice; else, it rarely solves the problem. In this case I am grateful to Bill Sheeran for his article, referenced below, which has effectively done all the work for me. His choice, for modern economic purposes only, for the current chart of Ireland, is the chart for the total separation from the UK in 1949.

What I liked about this was the fact that, although I thought I was diverging from my schedule, the universe thinks otherwise and has provided me with a chart set for one month after the Nikkei 225 that I looked at last week. Neat. I love the universe when it is being witty.

In the coming years, there are a number of progressions that are approaching exactitude in the 1949 chart and almost all of them involve the chart angles and are therefore likely to be important in changing the overall structure of the country.

Over the last 12 months Saturn has made its 29 year return to both natal Saturn and the chart’s progressed Saturn, stationing on the latter in April through May, and more recently squaring the progressed MC and the Ascendant. Although there has been substantial prosperity with the progressed Ascendant squaring the Sun/Venus conjunction, that has not all been with real foundation and Saturn has recently been providing a few lessons to those who thought there was easy money forever.

This seems in keeping with the fact that Ireland’s economy boom has partly been brought about by Dublin’s financial services developments which started in the mid-90s and are obviously hurting along with the rest of the world banking system, following the so called “credit crunch”. Property prices in Ireland have also risen almost continuously since the mid 90s, spreading out from Dublin to the whole country. That has come to a halt with the arrival of Saturn. But now as the planet moves on we would perhaps expect a change of atmosphere.

This week’s eclipse is not especially exciting for the country. There is a trine to the progressed Sun, but not much else.

Indeed there is not much in the way of events going on at all in the last few months of the year either. Although Jupiter is stationed at 12 degrees Capricorn in September, this really does not pick up much in the chart at all. The progressed Moon does oppose progressed Saturn and square the progressed midheaven that month, but despite the fact that this suggests more difficult times, the sextile to the natal moon implies that it will not lead to any notable changes.

The configuration of Jupiter/Saturn and Uranus in October and November is also pretty irrelevant as far as the Irish economy is concerned.

December looks a bit challenging though. Pluto opposes the progressed Uranus and is in conjunction with the Republic’s moon: suggesting that there may be increasing discontent. However this is again unlikely to be too significant, the Republic’s Moon is trine Saturn, the people have a disposition to be relatively content most of the time, and it will take more than a bit of restructuring to upset them. Anyway the feeling is accompanied by a rather favourable Jupiter conjunction with the progressed ascendant and sextile the Sun/Venus conjunction. This looks like a dose of financial luck (an interest rate cut by the ECB perhaps) so no big worries yet.

2009
This relatively favourable picture continues into 2009. The country has a Jupiter return- a once every 12 year event, and Jupiter then trines the MC and in the absence of conflicting factors this is generally positive. However it is also the end and beginning of a cycle – and it was last in this position 12 years previously in 1997. Given how the Irish economy has grown , the Jupiter return is as likely to throw up some of the negative associations with expansion as well as positive ones. Certainly the progressed Moon square the Ascendant in February implies some dissatisfaction.

The subject of wider cycles is also pertinent in March. Jupiter reaches its opposition with the Republic’s Pluto. This throws up the question of the level of debt in the economy again. Some financial and banking issues are likely to arise – maybe some refinancing is made easier though – as the chart has a sextile between Pluto and Neptune, so favours credit generally. Things also look positive in April. Neptune trines the progressed Sun, there may not be strong leadership but there is no sign of substantial difficulty either.

May is obviously the month when the Neptune/Jupiter/Chiron conjunction is at its peak. The conjunction is sextile the Irish Sun/Venus and trine its Uranus and progressed Sun. Even though Uranus is simultaneously square the progressed Sun, this is still, on balance, expansionary – if anything too much so. However, there are background influences in the form of a progressed Ascendant approaching a quincunx to Saturn, on the back of the 2008 quincunx to Uranus, that suggest that not everything is rosy at the fundamental levels. And more seriously, there is an approaching progressed Mars conjunction with the Descendant.

Now the Republic of Ireland chart has a quite modest Mars. Although it is in Aries, except for a wide conjunction with the diplomatic Sun/Venus conjunction, it really makes few aspects. So generally, here, we don’t have a chart with much aggression in it. However even the most patient individual can become angry with sufficient provocation and nations are no different. With progressed Mars appearing on the descendant in orb with Mercury we can expect some more assertive behaviour and certainly a lot more rhetoric. But even this aspect by itself is not problematic- it merely provides the potential, the action must be provided by a transit of a major planet and we don’t have one yet. Furthermore, Mars on the descendant might also in this case relate to situation in one of Ireland’s partners; this could be the UK (as this was the country from which separation was achieved in this chart) and this would correspond with deepening social problems that are reflected in the UK chart over the next few years. It could also relate to the EU, as the Irish government will almost certainly attempt to lay the blame for any internal problems elsewhere ( that is what governments do to preserve themselves), and the EU and Euro may be on the receiving end of a black-lash from both the Irish government and its people. Less likely, as the chart is the 1949 chart of UK separation and not a chart representing Irish separation, but not to be ruled out, is a recurrence of violence in Northern Ireland. Indeed, if the UK as a whole is suffering economic stagnation, then such problems are a potential side effect.


With Pluto conjoining the Republic’s Moon, opposing the progressed Uranus and trining progressed Saturn, in June there does seem to be a continuing theme of nervousness in the Republic itself though. The thing about Pluto is that is brings a sense of threat with no action and therefore no resolution – a sword of Damocles, if you will. It is difficult to reconcile this feeling with what does not look at all like a severe recession and it is possible that there is some other political motivation – perhaps the relationship with Europe.

These themes continue throughout the summer with only the second week of September being particularly significant as Saturn opposite Uranus squares the progressed Sun – maybe problems or disputes within the leadership will result from this. On the whole though it is just more of the same through November.

But by December Pluto is square Saturn at around 3 degrees of the cardinal signs. The chart MC is at 4 degrees Libra – close enough to be impacted. Now we can start to see some concrete effects rather than mere shades in the background.

2010
The effect of the Pluto/Saturn square continues into the early part of 2010, although Jupiter, sextiling the Moon later in the month lightens the mood a bit. But that same Jupiter heats up exchanges a bit in February – now this might just mean that literally we have a rise in trade, but it also might mean some debates escalating out of hand. The likelihood of the latter is suggested by the parallel trine of Neptune and square of Uranus to the progressed Sun. Perhaps the government’s attempts to implement some economic policy is prevented – certainly action at this time is likely to be disjointed and not as successful as expected.

March sees the return of themes from 2009, with the Venus/Sun conjunction positively activated, but at the same time a sense of instability continues to creep in as Uranus squares Uranus. This is a theme that the Republic will have to get used to as it will last for a few years.

June to September of 2010 is characterised globally by the cardinal cross. In Ireland’s case, as we have already seen in our discussion of Pluto’s advance, this hits the mid-heaven point, and the Moon and progressed Uranus and Saturn. The progressed MC at 3 Sagittarius, and Asc at 0 Aquarius are also picked up – although in this case the aspects will be positive. It is an ill wind that blows no-one any good. This fact is echoed in that the progressed Ascendant conjunction with Jupiter and quincunx with Uranus at the same time. There will have to be some restructuring of the economy which will be difficult but from which some will benefit.

It is not necessarily good for the leadership though. Jupiter and Uranus square Uranus and the progressed Sun in September suggest change.

More seriously, as well as bearing the continued Pluto transit to the MC, by October Saturn forms a conjunction with the Irish Neptune, where it last was in 1981. This is recessionary.

The '80s in Ireland were a particularly bad time economically as well as politically. The following speech gives some indication of the problem then.

I wish to talk to you this evening about the state of the nation's affairs and the picture I have to paint is not, unfortunately, a very cheerful one. The figures which are just now becoming available to us show one thing very clearly. As a community we are living away beyond our means…….. To make up the difference we have been borrowing enormous amounts of money, borrowing at a rate which just cannot continue. A few simple figures will make this very clear...we will just have to reorganise government spending so that we can only undertake those things we can afford.

Charles Haughey, January 9, 1980 –

Source: www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Haughey

In 1981 there was a change of government which brought in a coalition who undertook a severe pruning of government spending following a few years of financial imprudence. Both in the Republic and in the North, it was one of the most politically divisive times in many, many years. To give some idea of the instability at the time and the relatively minor nature of triggers to dissatisfaction, the next government only lasted until January 1982 when it collapsed due to a controversial budget which proposed the application of Value Added Tax to children's shoes, previously exempt. However, at this point, we are not talking about a sitaution identifical at all levels to 1981, only at the economic level.

As I say, it is recessionary, the only question is whether it is a short or long transit…and in October, at least, it’s short. Unfortunately, as we shall see, later October is just an appetiser.

Indeed, in general, the situation remains much the same as in the summer right up until early 2011.

2011
The uncertainty, associated with the Neptune and Uranus aspects to the progressed Sun, at government and country level continues into January 2009. February looks a little bullish and upbeat, with Jupiter opposing the mid-heaven but trine the Ascendant and sextile the progressed Mars and Mercury. But March is less so with a Moon square, suggesting more public dissatisfaction.

The recessionary feel is also back as Saturn retrogrades to station on Neptune. The real effects of that Mars crossing the descendant may start to be felt now, as Pluto forms a quincunx with the progressed Mars/Mercury conjunction and Jupiter conjoins the natal Mars. April and May 2011 don’t appear to be good months for Ireland. But the real problems may just be beginning.

In June the progressed Moon reaches the IC and this looks like a key turning point. Saturn is still conjunct Neptune, but now Neptune is opposing Saturn too. This is a similar double whammy to the one that the Japanese stock market is experiencing at the same time. Not sure that they are directly connected (!), although in these global days one can never be sure. What is clear is that although the Irish chart only dates from 1949, we do have data on a previous Neptune opposite this Saturn point, in 1846ish – namely the potato famine. Now while we have moved on from potatoes, economically this mix of factors does not look good. The fact that, at the same time there may be some positive changes as progressed Sun conjoins Uranus and sextiles the Sun/venus conjunction is irrelevant, given the strength of a double dose of Saturn and Neptune.
Recession looks a raging certainty now. Scary that it takes from 2008 to 2011 to settle in. That’s bad government policy – not necessarily local, more likely global- meaning we don’t deal with problems quickly anymore, we brush them under the carpet until we catch our foot on them trip and break a leg.

Anyway, over the summer there is nothing much new. The Pluto Uranus square to the mid-heaven continues and even though the recessionary effect backs off a bit, it does not look to lift completely – indeed it looks like it is only really getting off the ground.

It settles in again by October as Neptune returns to its June position opposite Saturn. It can’t be a coincidence that the progressed MC crosses the Ascendant at this time- Ireland having to face up to both the good and the bad aspects of itself. Saturn opposes Mars, a healthy dose of trade control is probably put in place.

December is characterised by further low key disruption as Uranus squares progressed Uranus and Pluto returns to quincunx Mars again. A Jupiter square makes the situation more volatile.

2012
The first few months just suggest more of the same.

In March, the recessionary Neptune opposite Saturn continues. Transiting Uranus now fully reaches the IC. And Saturn itself now opposes the chart’s Sun/Venus conjunction, although working reasonably well as it trines Uranus and the progressed Sun. This marks another turning point.

There are likely to be more problems of a different type come May, as Uranus sextile Mars, and Pluto is still close to the quincunx point. Picking up this square with a Mars can’t be good economically or politically. Economically it would imply cuts and restructuring, politically – well the less said the better. It is noteworthy that at this time the progressed MC opposes progressed Mars too. Nevertheless, we should continue to bear in mind that the progressed Mars is in the 7th house – it is possible that what we see here is merely the reflection of actions in the UK, EU or Northern Ireland at this time.

By the summer, although Neptune has passed Saturn, it is now opposing the progressed Saturn. No let up from the recessionary conditions. Saturn in the form of government is trying to calm things down; Saturn is once again opposing the Sun/Venus conjunction and trining Uranus. To a degree this will work – this trine is fairly strong and close at the time.

The recession continues though, as Neptune retrogrades again. There is a lot of petty disruption throughout the last three months of the year. The progressed Moon in conjunct Mars, the people are angry and there is still an underlying current of other more serious political problems with Pluto quincunx Mars joined by Saturn in Scorpio in November. Uranus on the IC also destabilises things once more. And the year ends on a particularly inflamed note as Jupiter stations on the progressed Mars.

Chart:
Republic of Ireland: 18 April 1949. 0.00 BST. Dublin.
Source: N. Campion Book of World Horoscopes.
As mentioned my choice of chart in this case was inspired by this article by Bill Sheeran: www.astrologysoftware.com/resources/articles/getarticle.asp?ID=133

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