Japan, economy and the Yen: 2008-2012

On 4th August , the Financial Times reported that “Japan is suffering a slowdown but it has no house price bubble or credit crunch to deal with and its export markets in Asia are still growing” and that “Japan should keep interest rates on hold”.

Aside from what this implicitly states about the desirability of the hamster-wheel relationship between domestic consumption and the goal of GDP growth, it does beg the questions, “what is the real state of the Japanese economy, where is it going from here and how does that fit with the broader global economic picture?”

So looking at the Japan country chart in conjunction with the Yen chart, we will consider the direction of the Japanese economy between now and 2012.

The current eclipse on 16th August will be close to the Japan sun, and Neptune will be transiting the Sun as it did earlier in the year. This suggests exactly what the FT article portrays – a lack of direction (*) and possibly pointing to issues of deception around the leadership. There is a potential for disputes/disruption as Uranus is square progressed Mars at the same time- although the favourable trine from the eclipse to that Mars suggests resolution rather than escalation.

The Yen now

There is evidence of speculative volatility in the yen chart around the eclipse time, with Neptune quincunx the progressed Jupiter and Uranus an Neptune sextiling Neptune and trining Venus and Jupiter suggests a departure from fundamental value which is likely to continue over the next couple of years.

One of the key factors in the Japan chart or the next few years is the progression of Mars to a trine with the natal, Sun, closely followed by a similar progressed Sun aspect. And with the Sun in the chart trine Uranus, there is a suggestion that changes have been happening internally that will bring fruit in these next 3-4 years. On the other hand the Neptune influences don’t die out as the transiting Neptune effect is replaced by progression of the MC to the natal Neptune. The lack of clarity is likely to be a feature of the coming years.

In September and October 2008, Uranus retrogrades back to a square with the progressed Japan Sun, reactivating unsettling events from March this year. The internal political situation continues to look a bit tricky, Saturn opposing Uranus squaring the progressed Sun and Mars: any government stimulus policies will not be having the desired effect. But the overall news is relatively good as the configuration between Jupiter/Uranus and Saturn favourably aspects the country Ascendant.

This is bourn out by the Yen chart. Uranus returns to its March position sextile the Yen’s Sun Pluto conjunction and opposing Mars. March was a strong time for the Yen and at least some of this strength is likely to return in October.

By November, Neptune’s trine to the progressed Japan Sun, weakens things but not enough to be serious. However Pluto returns to its position in January – conjoining the Japan Jupiter- this suggests reference to the credit problems – if Japan has any exposure it will come to light now but on a positive note, it may also be the start of Japanese financial institutions buying international ones – certainly having Pluto trine the progressed Ascendant in December and into early 2009 is a sign of strength.

In the Yen chart, November also looks positive. Uranus continues to provide underlying foundations to the currency as it trine natal Pluto, and though it is now opposed by Saturn, the Jupiter trine will offset this. Pluto also trines the natal Ascendant in the chart, and Jupiter trines the progressed Mercury and Mars. On balance the best major currency to be in this month.

December is a bit more mixed for the Yen. There will be a lot of currency switching this month, which might be a result of the consolidation or publication of further banking issues mentioned or a rate change elsewhere.

2009
The late 2008 Japanese economic strength continues in January- as Japan benefits from the global influences – as well as the Pluto aspect above, Jupiter trines the Pluto Neptune conjunction and progressed MC and then transits the chart MC. Although Neptune continue to conjoin the Japan Sun, it is also trine the progressed Mars, a chance to attain business goals, even if political problems are ongoing.

Jupiter’s opposition to progressed Uranus continues some of the volatility in the Yen chart, but as Jupiter is trine the progressed Sun, and conjunct the Moon, this is again reasonably positive. However since Jupiter is no longer supporting transiting Uranus, there may be some negative impact from the transit of Saturn over the Yen Mars. However on balance the trines to the natal Sun and Pluto still look good throughout January and most of February.

February however is less good for the general economy. Pluto opposes the progressed Mercury, and so bad news may seep out of the woodwork. The mixed effect of the Saturn Uranus opposition making positive aspects to the ascendant but challenging, square, ones to the leadership is again emphasised. So by March it is back to the disputes and disruptions of Uranus square the progressed Mars.

It is not surprising then that the Yen chart shows Pluto conjoining the Yen Saturn and squaring its progressed Venus. As this is the first such transit in the history of the currency in its current form, this is likely to be significant. It is not generally good for value: a similar transit suppressed the value of the euro in its early years. A look at the square and opposition in the early 1920s and in 1973 will help identify the likely trend.

April onwards is characterised by the Neptune/Jupiter/Chiron. In May the progressed Moon is on the Descendant – the focus is likely to on other countries. The Neptune configuration is trine the Japan Moon – beneficial then for the people in general, but it is also widely square the progressed MC, goals and direction are likely to be thrown out of the window by events then. This is reinforced by the transit of Uranus to the country’s Mars. Expect hyperactivity, high levels of trade and possibly other types of disruption ( in 1925/6 the last time this aspect occurred the elites had to appease the people with law changes, there was a change of emperor, the start of fishing disputes and Japan’s expansionist period began)

The Neptune conjunction squares the Yen MC. This is in keeping with what we have seen elsewhere- speculation is indicated on a major scale. However in this case the conjunction also trines the Yen Jupiter Venus conjunction, which seems to suggest speculation in its favour.
However, Uranus is square these two planets too and yet is also trine the progressed Jupiter in the Yen chart and sextiles the MC. On balance the currency looks a favoured choice but it is not a cut and dried situation.

On balance the summer does not look too bad for Japan, but we are not seeing untrammelled dynamism here, there is some economic strength (again Pluto trines the progressed Ascendant) but too much external and internal uncertainty, and with Uranus conjoining Mars there is an underlying restlessness.

In August 2009, Pluto repeats its November 2009 aspect to Jupiter – again suggesting that Japanese banks (or even other companies) might capitalise on weakness elsewhere in the world economy.

With most of the outer planets retrograding over previous positions, we can expect the Yen to show a repeat of trends earlier in the year in July and August. With the exception of square from the progressed Moon to natal Pluto and the Sun which suggests some underlying dissatisfaction (no situation benefits everyone), the strength is still there in the currency.


The next couple of months are harder for the Japanese people, with Saturn square the country’s Moon, more problems leaking out of the woodwork ( Pluto again opposing Mercury), and the repeat Neptune conjunction this time a couple of degrees further back on the country’s Sun . Even though there is a positive trine to the progressed Sun/Mars conjunction, the overall feel is that there is more negative impact on the country at this time than earlier in the year. The double impact of the progressed MC conjoining the country’s Neptune and the progressed Ascendant squaring the progressed Neptune is at its peak at this time suggests either falling into a slight depression or an erroneous belief that everything is going to be well. The Trine of transiting Saturn, however, does not suggest a deep recession, more a maintenance of the ongoing state of slight inertia, and with Saturn square Jupiter, it is more likely that there will be a negative disposition in the country rather than delusion about the situation.

In the yen chart Jupiter squares the Pluto/sun conjunction. Again an indication of major funds flows, but this might have more to do with the actual investment than with speculation. Uranus is still trine the chart’s Uranus which is not by itself a negative aspect – rather one that indicates positive but unexpected changes. Saturn square Venus and Jupiter, however, suggests reduction in value, even though its sextile with progressed Uranus is mor supportive. On balance not a good month for long term trading.

December 2009, is a different matter, as Uranus makes its last square to the progressed Japan Sun and Mars. Expect some radical shifts in both business and political spheres, before 2010 begins.

The effect on the Yen is mixed too. Pluto is again conjunct the natal Saturn. But this time transiting Saturn is square it and conjoining the now close conjunction between progressed Sun and progressed Venus. The Neptune configuration is close to a sextile with the chart’s progressed Ascendant and Neptune. This suggests a conflict between speculative buying and assessments of fundamental value.

2010
Pluto conjoins progressed Jupiter in January – which by itself suggests a repeat of the financial consolidation already referred to. But this time Saturn is opposing Jupiter. Restructuring is needed, although at this point it can be achieved without too much pain as transiting Jupiter is trine Japan’s Jupiter.

Uranus’ final transit of Japan’s Mars in February continues a momentum for change that has crept up during 2009. But now it is more open as Jupiter crosses the progressed Descendant, and there is obstruction as the balance of power shifts ( Pluto quincunx Pluto). March continues much of the same themes, from January and February as well as late 2008. And in April though June they intensify as the progressed Moon opposes the natal Pluto. The people are especially restless in May, when Jupiter and Uranus squares the natal moon and there may be political resistance to change with Saturn square the Moon too.

The Neptune configuration continues to be activated in the Yen chart from January to March as a result of the progressed Moon picking up each planets’ influence at this time. Uranus also once again crosses the same degrees. In February these trends are accentuated by the progressed Moon square the MC, trine Jupiter and finally conjoining the Ascendant. This seems to confirm the Japan chart themes of a restless populace throughout these months.

The trend is emphasised in April as Jupiter sextiles the Yen Sun/Pluto conjunction and opposes its Mars and progressed Mercury. Then in May, the progressed Moon on the descendant and square the Yen progressed Mars, multiplies the influence of Neptune stationed on the square.
These two months will mark a critical point in the currency markets.


Over the summer of 2010, the cardinal cross is at its most exact. And its impact on Japan is mixed. Now the country’s Jupiter opposite progressed Mercury is the focus. This might have an impact on issues such as communications, including freedom of speech, and thus on trading routes. However the positive trine/sextile aspects to the Neptune/progressed MC conjunction mean that still doesn’t suggest deep problems.

In the Yen chart the square between Saturn and the progressed Sun/Venus conjunction is once again activated by Saturn and Pluto, but now with the added impact of a square from Uranus and Jupiter. More speculation, less value for the Yen, would be the interpretation if it were not for the corresponding trine to progressed Uranus and a sextile between Pluto and the progressed Moon. The aspect on balance does not bode well, but where compared with other currencies the Yen still looks a better bet.

The last few months of 2010, merely continue the themes in the Japan chart, but with less intensity.

In the Yen chart, the square of Neptune to the MC and mercury and to progressed Mars takes precedence from September to November. This suggests that there is no awareness of fundamental value at this time, merely buying on faith. The Pluto/Saturn square also continues, moderated a little by the factors already mentioned depressing the value of the Yen.


It is difficult to predict what the net effect of these conflicting factors is so early on. But by December when Saturn conjoins the progressed MC we should expect the currency value to be depressed.

2011
In early 2011 the situation is much the same. By February Saturn transits the Japan Uranus, but other than added restrictions in some areas there is nothing new. The Neptune square is continuing and despite the boost given from Jupiter sextiling the Neptune/Pluto conjunction, it is hard to make the benefits concrete. Japan ought to be doing better than it is, at this point.

Yen holders seem to think so too. The progressed Neptune/progressed Ascendant trine is at its strongest now implying faith in the currency is quite strong.

In early January we still have the effect of Uranus/Jupiter sextile the MC/ Mercury and trine progressed Mars again, offset by the Neptune square to the same points. So no change here from the 2010 position. But in February Jupiter picks up the Saturn/Venus/Sun progressed Square and gives a small boost to the Yen value.

In March/April 2011 we have another critical turning point as Neptune reaches the Yen descendant, and a Saturn opposite Jupiter configuration transits the chart’s progressed MC.

Indeed, the summer of 2011 might seem a positive time – Jupiter sextiles the country’s sun, progressed sun and mars, Neptune sextiles Jupiter and trines the progressed Mercury. All this suggests optimism and dynamism and the nest phase of a few years.

During May through July, Saturn continues to station on the Yen MC, and Neptune on the Descendant. This does not imply a good time for the Yen, but again everything is relative, and Jupiter transits the Yen natal Neptune in May, suggesting inflationary forces even – although compared to other currencies the Yen was not born with quite the same problems reconciling expansion with stability.

In the Japanese chart, by September the few months’ relative respite is over and we are back to the issues of the early Spring. There is more change, probably technologically motivated, as Uranus square Pluto, close to the country’s Jupiter. More restructuring is anticipated. And again there is a feeling of lack of direction as Neptune returns to square Neptune and the progressed MC.

The themes are once again mirrored in the Yen chart. Progressed Mars trines progressed Uranus and is accentuated by the progressed Moon. Uranus again activated the progressed Saturn square Sun/Venus conjunction which is close to exactitude now and Neptune continues to rest on the Descendant. But without the influence of Saturn to mitigate the flights of fancy – this might lead to an unexpected appreciation of the Yen now.

But the last months are a little more mixed currency wise. Saturn opposite the Yen’s Neptune depresses the price and some other tricky aspects reduce the major trend in the last months of the year.

For Japan as a whole, October and November are positive, however, a major Jupiter grand trine with Japan’s Jupiter and its progressed Ascendant, suggest that the country capitalises on its strengths in the global environment at this time. And although Saturn ( government/outside influences) again restrains the impetus for change (Uranus) it does so in a long term enabling and sustainable way ( Saturn trines the Japan progressed Mars/sun conjunction).

Even a bit of mixed December that follows can’t really negate the strength of that positive configuration. Interesting though that the currency seemed to have priced all this in earlier on and is trading in a smaller range now – or perhaps that is because action has been taken elsewhere and everyone is waiting to see what the impact of it is.

2012
The ongoing Japan Neptune square, and its relationship with the progressed Japan MC, continues to prevent a clear perspective of where the country is going long term.

There is inertia in the Yen chart too. Neptune square the Yen progressed Mars is the strongest aspect in January and does not suggest a real direction.

The spring continues mixed in the Japan chart. The Neptune inertia, is offset by Jupiterian optimism and growth. Indeed the country may look particularly positive in April as Jupiter crosses the Japan Ascendant and in May as the progressed Moon conjoins progressed Jupiter.

The Yen is likely to be depressed despite good economic trends, with Uranus still aspecting the progressed square between Saturn, Sun and Venus, and now Pluto reaches the natal Saturn.

In the Japanese economy, there is more constructive planning and optimism for the future in the summer as Saturn again trines the Sun and progressed Sun/mars while Jupiter transits the progressed MC, Neptune and Pluto. Despite the mists of Neptunian lack of clarity, this is potentially a very strong time for the country, when it can build strong foundation and successfully consolidate its economic strengths for the future.

Although with Neptune on the descendant, there is still uncertainty about the currency market as a whole, the Yen gets a new boost in May as Jupiter transits the chart’s Sun and Pluto. The Uranus Pluto square to the progressed configuration is replaced by a sextile between Neptune and Saturn- not a sign of major buying but certainly stabilising, and enough to offset the opposition of Saturn to natal Neptune from May to August.

In fact Jupiter conjunct the Yen MC in June followed by its trine to progressed Sun/venus, suggests that the economic benefits may be reflected in the currency value at this time.

But there is a need to seize the moment as, from August onwards, things are more mixed. The Pluto Uranus square picks up the progressed Moon then and although there is continued strength in September, there is sign of less positive developments from November as Saturn quincunxes Neptune and Pluto and Uranus in the form of external shocks disrupts the economic environment (squares Jupiter) again.

And the Yen is mixed too for these months. The weakening effect of Neptune square progressed Mars reoccurs, despite some sustaining aspects from Saturn to Jupiter and, in October, to the Ascendant. By December the Pluto conjunction with the Yen’s progressed Saturn suggests that fundamentals are being re-evaluated for the future. It is a mixed but not bad picture as Saturn is supportive and Jupiter is boosting the currency’s reputation through a trine to the progressed MC. With Uranus conjoining the progressed Moon, expect some volatility as the factors are weighed against each other again.



Charts:

Japan: set for promulgation of the Meiji Constitution, 11 February 1889 10.46 LMT -9.19 Tokyo. Source N. Campion, Book of World Horoscopes, time amended
The Campion chart is set for none but I have used a reported time of around 10.40-10.50 a.m. available at:

http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=1KiZNIqF7A0C&pg=PA110&lpg=PA110&dq=%2211+february+1889%22+japan&source=web&ots=hxeMLXlfoq&sig=IGlao-fdRycVg8w9sJ88hp5gHX0&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=10&ct=result#PPA110,M1

Furthermore, the constitution did not come into effect until November 1890. I would prefer to use that date. However there seem to be two dates reported for this ( 25th and 29th) and no time and as I don’t have the time for significant library research at the moment it is not possible to confirm which is correct. Hence I have stuck to the promulgation chart.

Alternative charts exist for post WWII, but for my purposes I am looking for the earliest identified chart that is associated with the Japanese identity rather than with a specific regime.

The yen:
Yen Currency Act, 10 May 1871 Osaka, Japan. Rectified to 12.25 pm LMT -9.02
This is another chart that seems to be shrouded in uncertainty. A number of dates are possible, representing the foundation of the mint, the currency act signing and its announcement. I have used the Act signing date.

(* with Neptune transiting the Japan sun at present I had no chance to tie down a date and time for any of these charts!)