I thought I could be forgiven for feeling a little dejected as August drew to a close. No sooner had I posted my forecasts for the major currencies and oil than commodities took a dip and the dollar gained in strength. I did not expect this to happen so soon or so much.
What to do? Edit my posts perhaps? Or select only the good forecasts and ignore the dollar (I could perhaps refer to it as “trivial in the general scheme of things!”), Blame someone else? “It’s a conspiracy, right?”
However, I’m not a politician not a corporate clone, I am more than happy to confront my errors, understand them and ensure that they don’t happen again.
And indeed once I consulted the dollar chart I could see what I missed and when I read my posts, the only significantly bad forecast I made was the dollar. Now obviously getting the dollar wrong can’t be taken lightly, especially if one is trading. However, I wouldn’t trade the dollar on a less than three month basis on the information from these very long term forecasts, so even that can’t be considered a disaster, just a symptom of the nature of the forecasts.
Anyway, because the upshot of all this was a review of all my forecasts, I thought a recap might be helpful to see how I did on each forecast, and not just the one that seemed to stand out. So here we go:
From my original background post:
“March 2008 will not see the end of these opportunistic interventions. The aspect continues through May/June and is again resurrected later in October/November. That in itself should indicate that we are not out of the woods, that we won’t be out of the woods by the end of the year, but also, more importantly, that 2008 is not likely to be the year when the whole system comes crashing down
And in late 2008, we will see a shift. Even slow old Saturn, currently re-working the credit crunch analysis, has to move on eventually. And in this case he moves on, first, to form a nice stable and comfortable trine with Jupiter. This initially happens in September…..”
The only error in this is the timing, with the slight optimism that has been engendered in some people by the idea that the US is indeed coming out of the woods.
Next let’s review my oil forecast
I said:
“Even taking into account supply issues and other fears, this is clearly rampant speculation.” ……………..Fundamental supply and demand has its place but in 2007-2009/10 it is not the core denominator of prices.
The recent spurt in prices in mid June was the result of Mars opposing Neptune. ……………….but we are getting so close to the eclipses now that any lunation such as the new moon on 3rd and the full moon on 18th will exert a volatile influence.
The situation is unlikely to improve much in the coming 6 weeks as Neptune is also at the degree of the August eclipse……. Obviously it is all coming to a head. $ 150 by then – maybe more.
However, my view, is that once Saturn comes into aspect with Jupiter and Uranus in September through to December the escalation of the price will stop. Saturn in opposition to Uranus will quell the unexpected spurts in the price- but with Jupiter still in aspect to both there will be support on the downside. So I don’t expect big decreases in price this year either."
Again my timing is a bit out. We can see why if we look at the US forecast where I said:
"The difference however, is that as far as the credit crisis is concerned, things have moved on and as Saturn moves away from 4 degrees the current conditions will draw to a close. Now if I were to see the next two months as being the end of all the pressure on the dollar I would conclude that things would indeed settle down post August and the dollar would at least partially recover””
So far so good, but I then said..
“However, whilst Saturn does move away by September, the Pluto aspects remain for some time to come.
The conclusion therefore, is that the problem will move away from the pure financial situation and into one or other or both of a general economic problem and a broader derivatives problem.
…… It is interesting that while the US$ chart does not get much respite this summer, the Fed chart gets a bit.. ……."
Still not bad
“So we can expect the dollar to suffer not just against oil but against other currencies again in the next couple of months, for the Fed to do little and for recessionary data to increase”
Completely wrong. I should have double checked; given my conclusions about the Fed chart I should have revisited the dollar. In fact, doing so now, I find that Jupiter retrograding through Capricorn makes a sextile to a progressed conjunction of Jupiter, Sun and Mercury throughout August. This suggests positive intervention and should have been a pointer that the dollar was due for a reversal for August and September, the months during which the sextile has an effect.
What to do? Edit my posts perhaps? Or select only the good forecasts and ignore the dollar (I could perhaps refer to it as “trivial in the general scheme of things!”), Blame someone else? “It’s a conspiracy, right?”
However, I’m not a politician not a corporate clone, I am more than happy to confront my errors, understand them and ensure that they don’t happen again.
And indeed once I consulted the dollar chart I could see what I missed and when I read my posts, the only significantly bad forecast I made was the dollar. Now obviously getting the dollar wrong can’t be taken lightly, especially if one is trading. However, I wouldn’t trade the dollar on a less than three month basis on the information from these very long term forecasts, so even that can’t be considered a disaster, just a symptom of the nature of the forecasts.
Anyway, because the upshot of all this was a review of all my forecasts, I thought a recap might be helpful to see how I did on each forecast, and not just the one that seemed to stand out. So here we go:
From my original background post:
“March 2008 will not see the end of these opportunistic interventions. The aspect continues through May/June and is again resurrected later in October/November. That in itself should indicate that we are not out of the woods, that we won’t be out of the woods by the end of the year, but also, more importantly, that 2008 is not likely to be the year when the whole system comes crashing down
And in late 2008, we will see a shift. Even slow old Saturn, currently re-working the credit crunch analysis, has to move on eventually. And in this case he moves on, first, to form a nice stable and comfortable trine with Jupiter. This initially happens in September…..”
The only error in this is the timing, with the slight optimism that has been engendered in some people by the idea that the US is indeed coming out of the woods.
Next let’s review my oil forecast
I said:
“Even taking into account supply issues and other fears, this is clearly rampant speculation.” ……………..Fundamental supply and demand has its place but in 2007-2009/10 it is not the core denominator of prices.
The recent spurt in prices in mid June was the result of Mars opposing Neptune. ……………….but we are getting so close to the eclipses now that any lunation such as the new moon on 3rd and the full moon on 18th will exert a volatile influence.
The situation is unlikely to improve much in the coming 6 weeks as Neptune is also at the degree of the August eclipse……. Obviously it is all coming to a head. $ 150 by then – maybe more.
However, my view, is that once Saturn comes into aspect with Jupiter and Uranus in September through to December the escalation of the price will stop. Saturn in opposition to Uranus will quell the unexpected spurts in the price- but with Jupiter still in aspect to both there will be support on the downside. So I don’t expect big decreases in price this year either."
Again my timing is a bit out. We can see why if we look at the US forecast where I said:
"The difference however, is that as far as the credit crisis is concerned, things have moved on and as Saturn moves away from 4 degrees the current conditions will draw to a close. Now if I were to see the next two months as being the end of all the pressure on the dollar I would conclude that things would indeed settle down post August and the dollar would at least partially recover””
So far so good, but I then said..
“However, whilst Saturn does move away by September, the Pluto aspects remain for some time to come.
The conclusion therefore, is that the problem will move away from the pure financial situation and into one or other or both of a general economic problem and a broader derivatives problem.
…… It is interesting that while the US$ chart does not get much respite this summer, the Fed chart gets a bit.. ……."
Still not bad
“So we can expect the dollar to suffer not just against oil but against other currencies again in the next couple of months, for the Fed to do little and for recessionary data to increase”
Completely wrong. I should have double checked; given my conclusions about the Fed chart I should have revisited the dollar. In fact, doing so now, I find that Jupiter retrograding through Capricorn makes a sextile to a progressed conjunction of Jupiter, Sun and Mercury throughout August. This suggests positive intervention and should have been a pointer that the dollar was due for a reversal for August and September, the months during which the sextile has an effect.
This would then take us into the latter part of the year when I was expecting more stability anyway. Missing the Jupiter aspect meant I was 6 weeks out in my forecast. This can easily happen when looking at the longer term and focusing on the planets from Saturn out that move more slowly. Accuracy to the nearest month requires consideration of all Jupiter aspects as well as the trends of Mars and the Sun at least.
So there we are. I missed a key factor in the dollar which contributed to the oil timing error as well, although the magnitude of the oil moevment still remains a surprise to me.
However if we take the dollar out of the equation, elsewhere I did not do so badly at all.
For Sterling and the UK I said:
So there we are. I missed a key factor in the dollar which contributed to the oil timing error as well, although the magnitude of the oil moevment still remains a surprise to me.
However if we take the dollar out of the equation, elsewhere I did not do so badly at all.
For Sterling and the UK I said:
“It would be good to believe recent suggestions that the worst of the credit crunch may be over. Perhaps it is, in the form it has taken to date. However it is difficult to see an end to the story for any of the major currencies and Sterling in particular. Challenges to the Bank of England seem set to continue throughout the rest of the year and the spectre of inflation is definitely not going away.
We have seen some respite in last couple of months, but it doesn’t look like it will last. As Saturn moves forward again to its position of September 2007 and February 2008, the concerns of those months will resurface. We will see things starting to unravel again later in June and in July. Although at a global level the impetus from this will come from America and possibly elsewhere, the falling house price situation in the UK itself will create its own pressures at this time.
………………………..
The eclipses on 1st and 16th August are likely to trigger further events. The 16th August eclipse corresponds with the Neptune Saturn configuration. We will really know how bad it is going to be by then. Answer- very bad indeed. We will have statistics that show a year of price falls and no potential for the trend to reverse.”
Can’t quibble with that – Sterling has fallen relative to more than the dollar and the increasing consensus is that things are bad.
For the Euro I said
“What is notable when we look at the Euro chart is that, after some hard aspects …..in the first 3 years, …….. the transits and progressions were, on balance, relatively benign. That is changing in 2008. Pluto is currently at around 0 degrees of Capricorn. Not quite conjunct the Euro IC or square its Ascendant, but close. Saturn is also strengthening its effect at the moment – although that should improve in the coming months.
The picture for March to June has been mixed. Clearly against the dollar and gold things there has been strength, but against oil almost none. It seems that the price of oil is starting to undermining the fundamentals of the region and that this is starting to have an impact on the perceived worth of the currency……………………
The mixed picture continues into June and July. Jupiter in sextile with the Euro’s Jupiter and transiting Uranus, by itself, is positive, though not stable, but Jupiter is also conjoining the Euros’ progressed sun and squaring its Mars. This suggests disputes and also more volatility (and gains?) against the dollar. However there is a potentially tricky time in August where Saturn squares the Euro’s Pluto, suggesting some tendency to undermine its strength again.
Furthermore, the August Eclipse at 24 degrees Leo, with Neptune there, picks up the Euro’s North Node. People are definitely going to question the raison d’etre of this currency this summer. No doubt it will once again be blamed for problems totally outside its control. However the aspect does not directly challenge the chart’s planets and it is likely that all that results is uncertainty, rather than any policy, or even significant value, changes”
A mixed bag. The dollar’s rise has tended to make us think the Euro has suffered, but in overall terms it is precisely as I described: mixed, a rise vs. sterling, overall flat vs swiss franc, rising then falling to its early June value vs the Yen etc.
My Yen forecast was prepared later and the only relevant part is:
“There is evidence of speculative volatility in the yen chart around the eclipse time, with Neptune quincunx the progressed Jupiter and Uranus an Neptune sextiling Neptune and trining Venus and Jupiter suggests a departure from fundamental value which is likely to continue over the next couple of years.”
The major currency movements did take place around the time of the eclipses so this is on track.
Forecasts for the Renminbi have to be long term as its revaluation is being actively managed.I said
“A reasonable question is therefore, if the currency has just had a Saturn return why does the Renminbi still have apparent strength ….. The answer is that Saturn in the chart is trine a Jupiter Mars conjunction. The real value would have gone much higher by now if the currency was free floating but it is not – Saturn is and has been holding it in check”
I also said
“The currency ……. is also having a Jupiter return, as well as having had a progressed sun sextile sun. All of which are positive signs. …………………However not everything is positive. Jupiter is also about to square the currency’s Neptune and will be within orb until November. This is inflationary. Finally Pluto is making its final opposition to the Renminbi Uranus, indicating the end of the pattern of change of the last three years or so.
During August Saturn will go on to square the chart’s Sun and Moon (and possible conjoin its ascendant – based on a midnight start time). This coincides with the Olympics and suggests some financial challenges coinciding with those. However these are likely to be minor disruptions rather than any major problem."
The Renminbi did fall briefly vs. dollar from late July to around 18 August, although there does not seem to have been any Olympics connection, rather just a catch up against the dollars rise. The moving average continues to show it strengthen vs the dollar, if we ignore an overshoot and recovery on 26th -28th August. Pretty much what was predicted.
So that’s our currency forecasts. What about the stock markets?
For the Dow, I said:
“…………..and now stands at around only 11,500 its value two years ago…….
So what about the upcoming eclipses? Do they affect the chart? The solar eclipse doesn’t really but the Lunar eclipse on 16th August is square the Dow Venus and widely aspecting progressed Jupiter. It also, to a lesser extent, aspects the Dow Mercury and progressed Sun. All this throws the market into the spotlight and asks questions about real value. Expect more trading and re-pricing of the index companies in the run up to this date- though by itself the aspect does not really say what will happen to the overall index value. However a major rise is not anticipated – Jupiter returns to its position in February – the low up until the last couple of weeks. Still, another big fall doesn’t look to be on the cards at the moment either”
Since we are currently back at about 11,500, despite a lot of volatility, this appears to have been correct.
The Nasdaq forecast I did not post until 28 July, (although it was mainly prepared a week or so before)
“The solar eclipse is actually trine both the Nasdaq Mars and MC as well. So a spot of hyperactive trading is probably in order next week, with Saturn probably depressing the price. The fact that Saturn then squares Mars indicates far less trading in early August. But then we have that lunar eclipse. It is also sextile the Moon (which is within a degree of Mercury in the Dow chart ………………………I expect there will be a shift at this time – perhaps in favour of Nasdaq stocks or just focusing on the make up of the index and the fact that some huge losses in some sectors have been offset by gains elsewhere. I suspect a bubble will start to form in certain sub-sectors”
The Nasdaq did indeed rise until 16th August, and remains up on the month, and though I have not investigated whether my comments on its components were correct, I am pretty happy with this outcome too.
I did not see all of the dire UK economic situation being reflected in the market.
"Currently there are two influences at play. On the one hand Uranus is transiting the FTSE Mars increasing volatility- Mars is natally in the 7th house of partners and relationships – it is not surprising that the index is tracking the US at present. A fact substantiated further by the progressed Ascendant opposing the natal Sun during this time. On the other hand Saturn, having left its square with the progressed Sun and Jupiter is now sextiling the natal Moon, opposing the progressed Moon , is about to conjoin Pluto and then in August will oppose progressed Jupiter.
Again this is a busy time.
The solar eclipse of 1 August is within one degree of the chart’s Saturn. There does seem to be a feeling that the bottom has been reached in banking stocks at least. The aspects does suggest a time of re-evaluation and switching sectors. However it should be borne in mind that the UK economic forecast was not good- by all means take advantage of short term shifts, but beware of the long term trends.
The lunar eclipse of 16th August does not significantly affect this chart. The FTSE Uranus is at 27 Leo but this has already been activated for some months and the eclipse at 24 degrees should not affect it much more.
Negative news is likely to put a halt to things those by the end of the month when Saturn squares the FTSE MC and so trading is likely to be much more subdued by the end of August and into September.”
The last paragraph certainly reflects the news in the last week, if not the market direction. The market has risen slightly (1%) over the month and this is indeed a reflection of sector shifting including rises then fall backs in banking stocks. Again I‘m happy with this one.
For the Shanghai index I asked “Can we put the gas back in?” And said
“Now, in late July 2008, Pluto is making its final aspect to the Sun and the progressed Sun is leaving Neptune, suggesting this particular bubble will not re-inflate. However with Jupiter transiting that progressed Sun there maybe some brief rallies now and when it returns to this position in October.
The eclipse on 1st August is close to the IC and quincunx the chart’s conjunction of Venus Mercury and Uranus. We might have reached a bottom.
The eclipse on 16th August is accompanied by Saturn trining this conjunction, further suggesting that we will have seen the worst of the downward trend by then. The eclipse is trine progressed Mercury and square progressed Mars, suggesting fluctuations in trading however, which is not surprising given that there is no major upward trend forecast for a while and the fact that the Olympics will disrupt everything in the country for a few weeks.”
The index continued to fall into the first week of August, then recovered a little before eclipse of 16th, and has been more or less flat since. Another success. Although in this case we will have to wait longer to see whether the broader forecast is correct.
I also looked at the Hang Seng but this was not posted until 30th July and I said:
"The current situation does not show much improvement. Uranus is retrograding now and will transit the Sun again in September and again in early 2009, Pluto will return to its opposition with Mars in November and Saturn has not finished its damage yet it will transit progressed Uranus, Pluto and the progressed Sun before the year is out.
What about the upcoming eclipses? It would be nice to say that the chart is not affected. And as we are just 4 days away it is unlikely that much damage can happen. But the eclipse on 1st August is on the chart’s Sun. It is hopefully safe to say that that has already manifested itself in the decline in the index and specifically in the main bank components; however it is not exactly an uplifting configuration. The 16th August eclipse is square the chart’s Jupiter which is less clear- this rather dramatic aspect may explain the recent positive reversal since mid July. The overall expectation though is for no major change in direction for the next few months."
The Hang Seng actually fell in August from 22500 to 20500 until after the eclipse of 16th and though the last week has seen a recovery, it remains at 21000, below its July 30 level. Yet another success, although again I wait with interest the next few months.
Finally the Nikkei. I did not post this until 10th August so we are not looking at anything like long enough a time period, but I said
“At the moment we also have a Saturn effect – it is transiting the progressed MC, once more depressing prices. However we also have that delightful little animal, the Neptune/Mars configuration in play. Progressed Mars at 24 Gemini is being activated by Neptune- this is liable to provide flights of fancy that this market is the place to be. The eclipse next Friday 16th August triggers this point, so there may be a rally around or just past that date as Saturn finally moves on.”
The index fell to 20th August, since when it has seen a small upturn
“There is, in the background an approaching Jupiter ascendant progressed trine. Definitely a positive sign. And with Jupiter retrograding to station on the Moon and IC and square the Neptune/Ascendant at the end of August and through September, we something of a consolidation of a turning point going on here. However it is as if things can’t quite get off the ground – Neptune in quincunx the progressed Sun and Saturn square Mercury in October, there are difficulties, perhaps a mix of news that makes people still nervous about the index."
There has certainly been an improvement in recent days, due to government promised stimulus, but we will have to wait to see whether the prediction proves to be the case or whether the uplift continues unabated.
So there we are. Why I felt depressed about the dollar, I don’t know, it was the only error out of over 12 forecasts. I just hope I continue with this level of success!!
My next post will also be a recap. But of a different type. I want to look ahead again, but now taking all the individual forecasts and the background information and putting it all back together to see if we can deduce what will really happen globally over the next four years, and where if any we should be putting our long term funds.
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