Background
To say that the dollar has not had a good time over the last few years would be an understatement.
Of course it was inevitable. Real growth in the US has been miniscule for over a decade. Increased money supply, mainly through credit has been the driver of the so called growth at government and private levels, and indirectly through acquisitions at corporate level. The amazing growth of the stock market indices and, until 2007, house prices merely mirrored this credit expansion. At some point the cross over point was bound to be reached, where, at the margins, (and it is the margins that markets are valued on), credit just couldn’t be serviced any more and the whole thing collapsed. I am impressed that it took so long – or perhaps just amazed at how long an illusion sustained only by belief can last.
It would be amusing to watch the government, financial services companies and central bankers running faster and faster to keep the plates in the air if it wasn’t for the redistribution effects. By re-distribution I don’t mean which financial institutions have stumbled and which have prospered from the cycle- there is far too much emphasis on them – bank runs aside, if one bank and its shareholders lose and another gains the overall economic situation is the same. It is private individuals that are the real concern.
The expansion wasn’t equal and inequality has increased dramatically. Not so noticeable when all boats were rising in the flood of more “money,” as the cycle unwinds, we now have some reduced asset prices ( although as yet the stock market is relatively unaffected) but we also have increased consumable prices without increased wages. The inequalities have been increasing for a couple of decades but the ability to spend more and more future earnings convinced many that they were living the dream. They never were.
In the longer term there is only one way this can go- onto the streets. But in a country that believes so much that it is a land of opportunity for all, it will be a while, possibly a decade or more before denial finally turns to anger on a national scale.
But while it is useful to review what has happened, what we really want to know where things will go from here. Specifically, today, we will look mainly at the dollar and the Fed.
Of course it was inevitable. Real growth in the US has been miniscule for over a decade. Increased money supply, mainly through credit has been the driver of the so called growth at government and private levels, and indirectly through acquisitions at corporate level. The amazing growth of the stock market indices and, until 2007, house prices merely mirrored this credit expansion. At some point the cross over point was bound to be reached, where, at the margins, (and it is the margins that markets are valued on), credit just couldn’t be serviced any more and the whole thing collapsed. I am impressed that it took so long – or perhaps just amazed at how long an illusion sustained only by belief can last.
It would be amusing to watch the government, financial services companies and central bankers running faster and faster to keep the plates in the air if it wasn’t for the redistribution effects. By re-distribution I don’t mean which financial institutions have stumbled and which have prospered from the cycle- there is far too much emphasis on them – bank runs aside, if one bank and its shareholders lose and another gains the overall economic situation is the same. It is private individuals that are the real concern.
The expansion wasn’t equal and inequality has increased dramatically. Not so noticeable when all boats were rising in the flood of more “money,” as the cycle unwinds, we now have some reduced asset prices ( although as yet the stock market is relatively unaffected) but we also have increased consumable prices without increased wages. The inequalities have been increasing for a couple of decades but the ability to spend more and more future earnings convinced many that they were living the dream. They never were.
In the longer term there is only one way this can go- onto the streets. But in a country that believes so much that it is a land of opportunity for all, it will be a while, possibly a decade or more before denial finally turns to anger on a national scale.
But while it is useful to review what has happened, what we really want to know where things will go from here. Specifically, today, we will look mainly at the dollar and the Fed.
2008
As well as an ongoing (since 2004) aspect to the US$ chart's progressed Mars and probably progressed MC and ASC as well, the last 12 months activity have been governed by the position of Saturn. The eclipse in late August 2007 at around 4 degrees of Virgo, was then reactivated by Saturn in the October, by continuing lunations through to February, and by retrograde Saturn in March. This obviously mirrors the credit crisis well and much of the impact on the dollar in that period can be correlated with the events of that liquidity issue.
Is it finished? Unfortunately not. Saturn is this month working its way back to 4 degrees Virgo after being quietly stationed at 1 degree. This corresponds in June and July with yet another Pluto transit to the progressed Mars configuration.
The difference however, is that as far as the credit crisis is concerned, things have moved on and as Saturn moves away from 4 degrees the current conditions will draw to a close. Now if I were to see the next two months as being the end of all the pressure on the dollar I would conclude that things would indeed settle down post August and the dollar would at least partially recover. However, whilst Saturn does move away by September, the Pluto aspects remain for some time to come.
The conclusion therefore, is that the problem will move away from the pure financial situation and into one or other or both of a general economic problem and possibly a broader derivatives problem. Certainly with what can by now only be described as an oil crisis on our hands- the general economic problem looks a dead cert.
It is interesting that while the US$ chart does not get much respite this summer, the Fed chart gets a bit. There is an ongoing Pluto transit to the sun and opposition to Pluto in that chart but it is not especially activated this summer. The US country chart on the other hand is starting to experience the effect of the eclipse at 24 Leo in mid August. This eclipse, which is conjunct transiting Neptune, is close enough to the US moon, its progressed ascendant and Mercury. That might be a blip if it weren’t for the fact that next spring’s powerful Neptune Jupiter Chiron conjunction is at 26 degrees reactivating the themes of this summer.
So we can expect the dollar to suffer not just against oil but against other currencies again in the next couple of months, for the Fed to do little and for recessionary data to increase. The Fed may tinker a little with rates in September/October, but not significantly. Otherwise they will wait till 2009.
I expect a relatively uneventful November as the transiting configuration between Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus stabilises things. This would make sense- all eyes will be on the election then. I also don’t think, with Neptune conjoining progressed Mercury, that data released in this time is going to be very helpful – either because it is mixed or because it is massaged.
2009
December 2008 is more tricky Pluto is once again challenging dollar values, but until February I don’t expect the holding pattern to change significantly. Maybe it is the 2008 earnings season that opens the can of worms, or potentially an external event occurs which dramatically shifts the position. Whatever the reason, its looks as if there will be significant monetary inflation next spring and summer– April through July. The Neptune/Jupiter transiting configuration picks up the Neptune/Jupiter conjunction in the dollar chart and the opposition in the Fed chart, as well as the elements of the US chart already discussed. Uranus also trines Neptune in the Fed chart and opposes Neptune and squares Mars in the US chart. The latter implies a direct challenge to the sustainability of the American dream – has it all been based on a monetary illusion?
The dollar appears to take another hit as a result of this inflationary effect in July 2009 as Pluto once again transits the progressed configuation . The Fed chart parallels this as Pluto aspects the Fed’s Sun and Pluto again. Looking at these US charts alone we can’t tell whether the dollar will fall against all currencies or whether the currency inflation will be a global event against commodities etc.
Comparing the position of the transiting aspects to the US chart to those from the past, we see that Pluto was square its transiting position in 1973-76. This alone does not bode well, but when we appreciate that Saturn returns to its position in 1978-82 over the period 2008-2012 ,we understand the enormity of the problem. We have the combined effects of the crisis of 1973-4 , together with the inflationary effects of the late 70s and early 80s. owch. Perhaps not quite as bad as the Great Depression, but nearly.
It seems this is not just my view. From the Banking Times, Gill Montia reports (9 June 2008) that “The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the organisation that fosters cooperation between central banks, has warned that the credit crisis could lead world economies into a crash on a scale not seen since the 1930s…. the body points out that the Great Depression of the 1930s was not foreseen and that commentators on the financial turmoil, instigated by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, may not have grasped the level of exposure that lies at its heart”.
With Saturn conjunct the US Neptune and square its Mars in the summer of 2009, there is recession. The Fed chart suggests more liquidity - although it is difficult to see where interest rates can go by this stage – so maybe they are just printing the money?
Since the Saturn Uranus opposition continues into the end of 2009, and Jupiter and Neptune reform their conjunction ( this time at around 24 degrees) in December, it is difficult to see improvements in 2009. Pluto once again transits the same sensitive degrees in the dollar chart and this time it is square Saturn. This is almost as bad as it gets. Indeed the Fed chart also shows a particularly nasty aspect in November December – when it may come under new management! More liquidity/inflation seems to flood the system in December 2009 and January 2010 – though by now presumably no one is spending anything!
2010
The first half of 2010 merely repeats the themes from late 2009, with no significant developments either way. However May through October of 2010 are another matter. The cardinal cross is in place, with Uranus together with on the US country IC, Saturn in opposition and Pluto in square this is real crisis time. As my introduction to this period states, Uranus at this point in the cardinal signs has corresponded with both the repeal of prohibition, the peak of McCathyism and the civil rights movements. It has also corresponded with technological change in computing, communications and aviation. Now exactly how it plays out – positive or negative depends on the other factors at play- in this case with Pluto and Saturn involved we can expect change to be unpleasant, certainly in the short term.
As I said, I am not sure the US is ready for all out civil disruption, but it is likely that there will be pockets of it at this time- strikes, trade restrictions, shortages, and in some cases riots may ensue. Unless, there is some natural disaster which unites the nation – presumably with these planets in place earthquakes can’t be ruled out, or perhaps a hurricane hitting the major cities. Note that these are not a prediction – merely possible manifestations of the transits. Considerably more work would be required to identify what creates the disruption and whether it is internal or external. What is clear is that the US chart, the Fed chart and the dollar chart all pick up this configuration. With Saturn on the US Midheaven military intervention is possible- either to keep order or for clear-up.
By November 2010, the US has a Saturn return – square its sun and the Uranus conjunction with the IC remains. It is opposite the Fed progressed sun and the US sun. The effects, then, last longer then than the summer. This would almost suggest a complete change of government- or at least policy. Maybe finally the US realises it must take its economic medicine if it is to get better. Given what we know to be the current imbalances, perhaps the government has to provide more social support in the way of food shelter and healthcare than it has previously been inclined to do. And/or, horror of horrors, taxes on the richer element of the population may have to rise. With this aspect in 1981/2 deregulation started- often a complete cycle shows the complete or partial failure of a policy and the need to start afresh. A more managed form of capitalism may result.
The first half of 2010 merely repeats the themes from late 2009, with no significant developments either way. However May through October of 2010 are another matter. The cardinal cross is in place, with Uranus together with on the US country IC, Saturn in opposition and Pluto in square this is real crisis time. As my introduction to this period states, Uranus at this point in the cardinal signs has corresponded with both the repeal of prohibition, the peak of McCathyism and the civil rights movements. It has also corresponded with technological change in computing, communications and aviation. Now exactly how it plays out – positive or negative depends on the other factors at play- in this case with Pluto and Saturn involved we can expect change to be unpleasant, certainly in the short term.
As I said, I am not sure the US is ready for all out civil disruption, but it is likely that there will be pockets of it at this time- strikes, trade restrictions, shortages, and in some cases riots may ensue. Unless, there is some natural disaster which unites the nation – presumably with these planets in place earthquakes can’t be ruled out, or perhaps a hurricane hitting the major cities. Note that these are not a prediction – merely possible manifestations of the transits. Considerably more work would be required to identify what creates the disruption and whether it is internal or external. What is clear is that the US chart, the Fed chart and the dollar chart all pick up this configuration. With Saturn on the US Midheaven military intervention is possible- either to keep order or for clear-up.
By November 2010, the US has a Saturn return – square its sun and the Uranus conjunction with the IC remains. It is opposite the Fed progressed sun and the US sun. The effects, then, last longer then than the summer. This would almost suggest a complete change of government- or at least policy. Maybe finally the US realises it must take its economic medicine if it is to get better. Given what we know to be the current imbalances, perhaps the government has to provide more social support in the way of food shelter and healthcare than it has previously been inclined to do. And/or, horror of horrors, taxes on the richer element of the population may have to rise. With this aspect in 1981/2 deregulation started- often a complete cycle shows the complete or partial failure of a policy and the need to start afresh. A more managed form of capitalism may result.
2011-12
Having said that we aren’t really done with the monetary inflation issues- there is still a period of expansion in Spring 2011 and even on into 2012 although less significant than the previous years. In this period Uranus in its approaching square to Pluto transits the US$ and Fed progressed ascendants and the Fed Sun, but there appears to be a respite in the US country chart. This suggests that measures are in place which are having an economic impact and the country is waiting to see whether they work before taking things to the next level. That seems to be confirmed by the presence of Neptune on the US descendant- suggesting a possible state of inertia. However there is another possibility for this too. The US descendant represents it relationships with its major trading and political partners. With Neptune here there may be deception or weakness arising in these partners.
The Fed seems to play a slightly reduced role in 2012 activity, an with Saturn opposing the US$ progressed Saturn and conjoining its Neptune/Jupiter conjunction, there may be a return to some stability – perhaps a new peg to another currency or standard.
Saturn transits the country’s progressed Saturn in November 2012, the time the next election is due. The incumbent will probably be returned, but certainly the policy in place will not change. We will need to look at 2013-2020 to see whether the rot has been cured or whether a complete change of system is required.
Having said that we aren’t really done with the monetary inflation issues- there is still a period of expansion in Spring 2011 and even on into 2012 although less significant than the previous years. In this period Uranus in its approaching square to Pluto transits the US$ and Fed progressed ascendants and the Fed Sun, but there appears to be a respite in the US country chart. This suggests that measures are in place which are having an economic impact and the country is waiting to see whether they work before taking things to the next level. That seems to be confirmed by the presence of Neptune on the US descendant- suggesting a possible state of inertia. However there is another possibility for this too. The US descendant represents it relationships with its major trading and political partners. With Neptune here there may be deception or weakness arising in these partners.
The Fed seems to play a slightly reduced role in 2012 activity, an with Saturn opposing the US$ progressed Saturn and conjoining its Neptune/Jupiter conjunction, there may be a return to some stability – perhaps a new peg to another currency or standard.
Saturn transits the country’s progressed Saturn in November 2012, the time the next election is due. The incumbent will probably be returned, but certainly the policy in place will not change. We will need to look at 2013-2020 to see whether the rot has been cured or whether a complete change of system is required.
Charts used
US Sibley chart Philadelphia PA. 4 July 1776, 5.10pm ( Source Book of World Horoscopes : N Campion)
Federal reserve chart: Washington DC, 23 Dec 1913, 6.02pm ( Source internet historical infromation)
US$ chart : Coinage Act, NY, 2 April 1792 time unknown ( Source internet historical information)
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