EURO : 2008-2012

Introduction

In the last few years, the Euro has strengthened vs. the US dollar and even in the last year against Sterling. This contrasts markedly with its path in the early years of its incarnation. However its existence is often questioned as significant imbalances also exist between countries.
Now it must be said that, contrary to some claims, the Euro is not wholly responsible for these imbalances. Some are cultural; Italy was, is, and probably will be just Italy regardless of currency or regime.
Some are driven by individual factors. Whilst Euro rates may have helped stoke housing booms in Spain and Ireland for example, there were other factors at play. Both Spain and Ireland were recipients of significant European grants in 1990s. Spain was also for a long time the main beneficiary of second home buying and migration from UK and Germany, and Ireland benefited in the same decade from the introduction of a foreign financial company tax regime which led to huge pressure first on Dublin house
prices which spread across the country. These were booms led by country specific situations, perhaps enhanced by the security of the EU, but not attributable to the Euro itself.

However it is still argued that the Euro accentuates the imbalances by providing access to low rates in already booming countries. But even that needs qualification. While it might be easier and less risky to borrow in Euros in a Euro country, it is not a requirement. Even without the Euro, companies and individuals would have had access to the low rates offered by other currencies.

Finally some imbalances are a product of the distribution of history and resources, an issue for any country anywhere: whilst the US might be a tighter union than the EU, it is still a Federation and the dollar may be failing at present, but it is not doing so because of the substantial differences between Montana and California. Countries also possess such differences internally yet maintain common currencies – London does not have one currency and Newcastle another.

So many of the arguments for why the Euro could fail are at best slightly misleading and at worst completely fallacious. However that does not mean that the Euro is a safe bet- to assess it potential in the next 4 years we need to understand the broader economic situation in the region.

Where are we now?

The Euro’s trend vs. the dollar and sterling masks the fact that in the last two years the Euro has failed to keep pace with commodities- falling against both oil and gold in 2007 and against oil in 2008.

Furthermore, Europe has not been immune to the credit crisis. Indeed its banks, arguably, have suffered as much if not more than some of the US ones. While the ECB has been more measured in its response than the Fed, rates were already relatively low and remain so and the ECB has increased money supply. Both these justify somewhat the fall against commodities.

However, with exceptions, some which we have mentioned, as a whole the region is not as indebted at a personal level as either the UK or the US. It is, in fact, less dedicated to consumerism generally. That has its own downsides – GDP growth – if you believe it matters in the developed world – has overall been weak in the region and social policy pressures and commitments higher. But on balance we shouldn’t expect quite such dramatic effects as in the US since there is more cushion in the system. However the region is an exporter to the US and independence from that country’s problems would be impossible.


Obviously we are limited in the amount of historic astrological data we have for the Euro. And indeed, as the same goes for the ECB, I haven’t studied that chart in any depth. Looking at the EEC chart really doesn’t help with the currency picture either. So these interpretations have no direct precedents.

What is notable when we look at the Euro chart is that, after some hard aspects involving the Euro Venus, Saturn and Pluto in the first 3 years, from 2003 until 2007 the transits and progressions were, on balance, relatively benign. That is changing again in 2008. Pluto is currently at around 0 degrees of Capricorn. Not quite conjunct the Euro IC or square its Ascendant, but close. Saturn is also strengthening its effect at the moment – although that should improve in the coming months.


The picture for March to June has been mixed. Clearly against the dollar and gold things there has been strength, but against oil almost none. It seems that the price of oil is starting to undermining the fundamentals of the region and that this is starting to have an impact on the perceived worth of the currency.

The BBC website on 9th June quoted the striking Spanish truck drivers. “We are the ones who move the goods that this country needs to keep working," the head of the transport association federation Fenadismer, Julio Villascusa, told Cadena SER radio. "If we stop because we haven't got the money to buy fuel then the country will stop."

No doubt this theme will repeat across the region as time unfolds.

June 2008 till February 2009



The mixed picture continues into June and July. Jupiter in sextile with the Euro’s Jupiter and transiting Uranus, by itself, is positive, though not stable, but Jupiter is also conjoining the Euros’ progressed sun and squaring its Mars. This suggests disputes and also more volatility (and gains?) against the dollar. However there is a potentially tricky time in August where Saturn squares the Euro’s Pluto, suggesting some tendency to undermine its strength again.

Furthermore, the August Eclipse at 24 degrees Leo, with Neptune there, picks up the Euro’s North Node. People are definitely going to question the raison d’etre of this currency this summer. No doubt it will once again be blamed for problems totally outside its control. However the aspect does not directly challenge the chart’s planets and it is likely that all that results is uncertainty, rather than any policy, or even significant value, changes.

The themes repeat as Jupiter goes direct in September through December, with no significant change of emphasis until around February and March 2009. At this time Pluto finally reaches its conjunction with the IC and square to the Ascendant of the Euro chart. This is very challenging. And the fact that around the 19th February there is a double whammy when Uranus is transiting Jupiter and a Jupiter/Mars conjunction transits the Euro chart’s Uranus. This is highly disruptive, yet there is still no evidence of significant reduction in value. It seems that monetary inflation of the Euro will not match that of the dollar even though there may be continued market volatility.


I don't expect any major country to pull out of the currency though. Politically it is much safer for a country to blame the Euro, than to pull out and have only themslevs to blame.





Spring 2009 to Spring 2010



So what about the Neptune /Jupiter/ Chiron conjunction of May 2009? Does this affect the chart? We know it opposes the north node – the purpose of the Euro, but that surely only refers to the prospects for the Euro as encouraging closer political ties via the constitution, which seem to be on shifting sands at this time. It is not a reference to the Euro’s value as a currency.


The aspect also certainly picks up the chart’s Moon at 24 gemini, its progressed Mars at 23 Libra and its Saturn at 26 Aries. But these are all soft aspects. The problems at this time just don’t seem to be specifically Euro related. If it wasn’t for that Pluto gnawing away at the base of the chart we could conclude that all was ok in Euroland at this time.

In fact the aspects throughout 2009 are predominantly positive. Maybe there is a slightly inflationary background in May, maybe September sees some adjustment vs. other currencies – but the picture is still not bad.

However December 2009 looks less promising. Now the Pluto aspect is reinforced with Saturn on the Ascendant. The aspect continues into early 2010, again with a suggestion of some soft monetary policy ( Neptune and Jupiter continue to sextile Saturn) but still nothing on the scale that the US $ seems to encounter in the same period.

I find it hard to believe that the Euro will rise much further against the dollar- the relative prices of goods in each are already starting to look unsustainable. But the charts seem to imply that whilst both will weaken, the dollar will continue to be subject to more severe devaluation.

Summer 2010 – mid 2011


So what about that cardinal cross in summer 2010? Will that change the trend? Maybe. At that point Uranus and Jupiter reach the Euro chart's descendant axis. The cardinal square really hits the angles of this chart. It is hard to imagine countries dropping out and adopting a new currency- but perhaps there is by this stage such a momentum against fiat currency as a whole that it is not a break up of the Euro that is at stake here but, rather, a fundamental re-evaluation of all currencies including the Euro and a preference for some new form of exchange or standard.

The aspect hits the US$ and Fed charts’ progressed angles, many planets in the Bank of England chart, the Euro natal angles and the renmimbi Mars/Jupiter conjunction. That looks like a full house and a time to embrace a major change.

The picture continues through the end of 2010 and into 2011. But there is an interesting six month trine between transiting Uranus and the Euro progressed Moon. Whereas the US chart shows restrictions on trade at this point, the Euro chart seems to suggest that the people are freely trading even whilst the Euro is under pressure. It is a curious mix and I confess I don’t have enough information at this stage to see how it plays out. I will have to return to it later.

What we do get is a change by spring 2011. Until then there are sufficient positive factors to offset the cardinal cross. But by April 2011 the core of the cross remains but Jupiter opposes Mars and Saturn squares the Euro Sun and progressed ascendant as well. The recessionary elements seem to combine with a high level of trade in the currency. All of which is destabilising.

2012



In 2012 the main theme seems to be about establishing fundamental value. The progressed sun conjoins the Euro’s Venus, squares the progressed Mars and squares transiting Saturn throughout the year. Saturn also opposes its natal position. A peg with the dollar and/or something else? Uranus is still square the Euro’s MC but on the descendant at this time– whatever it may be, it is difficult to predict now and involves partner countries.



Chart used:


Euro: Frankfurt, Germany, 1 January 1999, 00.00 hours CET ( Source Book of World Horoscopes: N Campion)






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