It is July and we need another update don't we?
This time I've summarised each forecast. Generally the political ones are spot on, but there are some weaknesses in the currency and market forecasts- it is easier to see drama than it is more of the same of course so I expect that imbalance to right itself in the coming 3 years!
For completeness here is the summary, but all a reader needs to know is nothing has changed my view of the risk areas:
The FTSE prediction was for surprises and maybe glitches,
but while the world as a whole has been affected by the computer viruses in this period the FTSE in particular has not
been directly affected.
My Euro prediction was reasonable enough, the countries also
not too bad. In France I foresaw the beginning of challenges with a new government’s policies- we’ll have to see
whether I am right in the longer term . I expected Germany to have tougher
stats than seems to have been the case, but in Italy the political events are
in line and Spain continues to track the expected path. There was little to say
about Switzerland, Ireland or Iceland but lots to say about Greece, which
pushed the can a little further with another bailout in June. Problems there
are still expected later this year but more particularly from mid 2018.
In the US, things go on much as expected with more of the same
focus on “fake news” etc. Expect events there
to accelerate in the second half of August. The dollar forecast was fair and the
Nasdaq too but I underestimated the strength of the Dow.
Mexico’s position turned out better than I expected,
although my expectation of increased drug violence was correct. However my general
prediction meant that the Peso has done the opposite of what I forecast which
is not good (!) ( well, unless you held Pesos that is). On the other hand Venezuela
continues to fully reflect my expected path to destruction and I was right that
there would be another attempt to reform the Bolivar. I didn’t understand the
Brazil forecast when I wrote it- after all the previous head had been removed
for corruption so why was I still seeing it in the charts, but I wasn’t wrong ;
the sage continues. In Argentina I though things would look better and so it
proves – the jury is still out on the Peso long term but it is performing exactly
as I expected.
In China there wasn’t much to say and the focus was on “wars
of words” which seems to have played out with North Korea warnings. Neither the
Renminbi or Stock market did anything dramatic and my forecasts for these were average.
In Hong Kong the HK$ continues to survive albeit with less relevance and the forecast
wasn’t particularly interesting either but the Hang Seng’s did contain an
expectation of volatility which proved to be the case due to some individual
companies.
In Japan there is also little to say, though things were
perhaps better than I expected. I was pretty much right on the Yen but less so
for the Nikkei where my timing was definitely out.
Indonesia’s forecast is always difficult due to lack of
information. It wasn’t bad but it is difficult to compare the reality
accurately. The Rupiah forecast was not very good.
However my forecasts for the Koreas make up for it and especially
events in North Korea which are, sadly, proceeding exactly
as anticipated.
India was pretty much
correct too as was the Rupee forecast. But the Sensex forecast was wrong in
April in particular though otherwise ok. Pakistan as expected continues without
much changes.
Russia was a pretty good forecast too, though arguably
despite all the international issues it has remained rather calm. The Rouble
forecast was ok but not stellar.
Turkey continues to be interesting, showing government
strength when that is not necessarily a positive even if it is technically so! The Liar forecast was good too.
Israel also continues to match expectations but not necessarily
in a good way. Iran did fight off the hardliners in the election but it is by
no means clear that they have accepted defeat. I still expect some issues here
going forward. Saudi really lived up to my expectations, shaking up the line of
succession, threatening Qatar and proceeding with Aramco plans. This one Is definitely shaping up to be worth
watching.
There is little worth saying about Canada or Australia,
though the latter does have some economic wobbles it still continues to be a
success and I expected this to be the case compared to elsewhere in the next
few years. South Africa completes the set with the water issues I expected and on-going
political wrangling and a vulnerable economy but perhaps not as tough as I
thought.
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