Review January -June 2019

 

Time for a review again

 

I am struggling now with this project and glad it finishes in 2020. I shall have to resist anything that makes me want to look at 2021 and beyond.  Personally these days I prefer to sleep rather than write.  I seem to be affected by the constellations more than the countries are at present!

 

Yes, I feel , despite Trump being  front page news in UK papers this week, that nothing really concrete has happened yet and that although there are some themes across the globe there is as yet no obvious trigger for the 2019-2020 picture I expected. Perhaps things are not what they seem - like in the photo

Although, that is what I felt when  I was compiling my forecasts back in 2016- - unlike 2007-8+ there seemed to be no obvious focal point.  I have even been to a couple of seminars in 2017 and 2018 in the hope that someone would say something that would cause it all to fit together in my mind. But that hasn’t really happened.  It is a shame that I cannot foresee the exact way things will play out, but in some ways it is a relief – I have found it hard to reconcile the desire to make an impact on the world with the fact that everything seems to play out as predicted whatever one hopes.

Anyway back to the present and those reviews, I won’t be repeating what I said in the forecasts, if you want to know the details read ‘em:

 

 

 UK

I nailed this.  The next key period is August to October.

 95%

Sterling

Not bad although I ‘ve not seen any key policy decisions re the currency. 75%

FTSE

Ok- There are bubbles offset by poor performers.  70%

EURO

Mediocre; 55%

Germany

Not bad, issues with leadership swing it to 75%

France

I have done well with the trends in France since Macron was elected, although not every little detail is covered.  85%

Spain

Ok – I didn’t say much, 55%

Italy

I said even less. Though things do seem to be somewhat more positive there so 65%

Greece

This is a goodie – despite the fact that economically things have not been as bad as expected – the government trajectory has  followed my plan!!!

  85%

Ireland

OK- much of the uncertainty in Eire is the knock-----on effect from the Brexit consequences for the NI border.

70%

 

Switzerland

 

Yawn 55% ( If that seems high, think again – imagine if Switzerland had turned into Greece financially – then I could score it 10%!)

 

Iceland

Average – not much happened – difficult to score more than 60%

 

 

USA

I nailed the early part of the year   “restriction to government activity” for debt reasons.  And the fact that not much as happened since. 

90%

 

Dollar

Not bad – not the talk of alternative forms of currency ( see Facebook)  - 80%

 

Dow

Nah- I didn’t really do very well with this. 30%

NASDAQ

Not really – though perhaps overall not as bad as for DOW, 50%

 

 

Mexico

Not bad. Trade issues and border issues continue.  75%

Mexican Peso

Not bad either – pretty much got direction right 80%

 

 

Venezuela

Pretty much nailed it ( although it is just more of the same) but many might have expected a new leader by now and I noted both support and challenge.  85%

 

Bolivar

Since the currency is so devalued and since the country is toying with crypto and as the political matters dominate the news– it is difficult to tell whether this was correct or not. We will see. 50%

Brazil

Not so good.  I still suck at forecasting Brazil).  I didn’t really get the leadership change in 2018 so early 2019 does not really describe situation. But economically it is much closer. 60%

Real

I hedged my bets on this one but was more or less right overall especially regarding inflation impact. 70%

 Argentina

Not sure about this. Things remain financially problematic  but not as dramatic as last year. We will see.  Maybe 50%

Peso

Pretty good.  Noted the change in rate of depreciation. Again we will see. 75%

 

 

Canada

Not bad 75%

Australia

Nailed the lack of change in the government and the poor but not catastrophic economic position 90%

S Africa

Not bad at all, given the political situation from 2017 on . This is another one that requires more time. 75%

 

 

China

Not bad. The US trade “war” is more or less described. 85%

Renmimbi

Yes. Not perfect but pretty good. 80%

Shanghai Comp

Yes for Jan/Feb. Correct on trend for Mar-June but missed some volatility.  65%

HK$

Rubbish. 30%

 

Hang Seng

 

More or less- good for first quarter- moderate for 2^nd. 80%

 

 

Japan

OK. Didn’t say enough really. 70%

 

 

Yen

Overall ok. Balance but didn’t get first couple of months trend right. 65%

 

 

Nikkei

Another weak forecast. Whilst not entirely wrong it can’t be given more than 40%

 

Indonesia

Neither a poor forecast ( the longer term trends are right and that there was no leadership change) but failing to nail some of detail. 65%

 

Rupiah

 

Not bad, Compared to the bigger trends, the volatility call is correct 75%

 

 

South Korea

Economically it has been a difficult period making it difficult for the leadership. As expected there were budgetary changes ( to boost spending) . Not bad 80%

 

North Korea

Mixed signals in early months. Tick. Aggressive rhetoric in second quarter. Tick. No outright aggression yet though. 90%

 

India

 

The whole period was election dominated and I called it pretty much exactly right ( although I didn’t expect such a resounding victory) 90%

 

Rupee

ok- but not clear cut enough 70%

 

Sensex

 

Beginning of year right. Next quarter wrong. 50%

 

 

Pakistan

Continues to be difficult and although there was no sudden leadership change yet the potential remains. 65%

 

Russia

Ok- polls support my prediction that the leadership is having a harder time.  Sanctions , problems with an oil pipeline to Europe etc. But things are not terrible. Another 75%

 

Rouble

 

Although there was the volatility I expected. It was not as significant in size as I forecast. I failed to find an overall trend and turns out there wasn’t one.   70%

 

 

Turkey

OK – No great enlightenment. 60%

 

Lira

Nah- not quite rubbish but short on accurate detail. 40%

 

 

Israel

Ok. Though it has (outwardly at least) been mostly about the leadership, 60%

Iran

Not bad. Certainly there have been resource challenges due to sanctions and latterly there has been an effort to discredit the leadership from outside.  80% maybe more.

 

Saudi

 

Less in the limelight than last year!  Forecast pretty good but nothing concrete enough for a high score. 75%

 

All in all probably my worst effort so far ( despite getting some shining results in a few key countries)