Review : July to December 2020
Well, it isn’t the end of this blog of course but at last we
come to the end of the road in my forecasting project. When I started this 2020
project in 2007 I knew that I would end at a critical time, I just didn’t
appreciate then the nature of that time, it has been far more challenging
globally and personally than I expected.
I also did not appreciate what a major commitment I was
taking on.
I don’t regret it but I did learn that one of the factors in determining good forecasts using astrology is the extent to which the astrologer is committed and engaged in their work. The early years were a pleasure, I enjoyed the analysis and the writing and I think that showed. By 2016 when I was compiling the last 4 years, I just wanted to get it finished – a lot of the joie de vie had left my writing and I found myself less in the zone as I did the analysis. Good astrology still slipped through at times (!) but overall I am not so proud of those last set of forecasts.
Nevertheless it was worth it. I
feel that I have demonstrated the potential of astrology to foresee economic
and political events, sometimes with quite extraordinary accuracy. I hope that this will form a solid
underpinning for the work that I plan to do going forward. I have already
compiled my 2021-24 forecasts – though of course they are not part of the
project and won’t appear here- and am all ready to begin setting up my website.
More soon about that, in the meantime let’s get back to
those last reviews.
The second half of 2020 is a difficult period to do the
usual review for countries and currencies ( though stock markets can be tracked
as usual). The problem being that Covid dominated all news and separating Covid
from other economic and political events is hard when they just weren’t
reported globally. This puts a limit on
the upside to the marks I can reasonably give for my forecasts this time. It is
not that they are incorrect, just that they are difficult to pin down due to
the Covid focus. However I was pleased to see that there really was a
correlation between the timing of the Covid peaks in different countries and
difficulties highlighted in my forecasts – so the system continues to work even
if it is harder to assess.
UK
I didn’t do great for Jun-Aug- although I identified
disruptive influenecs I thought things looked good – they were better but
definitely not good. Sept-Dec I focused on Brexit at the year end but given I
wrote this in 2016 my timing was perfect. I did see the focus on the people in
the last 2 months which relates to the Covid situation.
85%
Sterling
FTSE
I correctly forecast an unstable period from July-Sept with
some falls. Also the variation in Oct-Nov when there was a significant shift in
trend. And in Dec though I correctly noted that the main effect would be in
January.
80%
Euro
I wasn’t really right about July – the currency was managing
relatively ok as there were problems everywhere. There was certainly a tough time Aug-Oct
though anything other than inflationary at ground level ( monetary easing a
different matter). November was indeed similar but more wait and see. And in
December again the absolute picture was correct but in fact the Euro’s relative
position was middling.
65%
Germany
Not much to say really – I correctly saw that the situation
would continue for the rest of the year. Including key announcements such as
the vaccine at the year end.
70%
France
I correctly saw Jul-Oct as being the same but more
moderated. And also that December would see flaws revealed as cases rose and
the difficult vaccine situation began.
70%
Italy
Once again I saw the situation moderated but with the same
themes in July to Oct. However I had much greater change happening in November
– government shifts did not really happen until January 2021.
60%
Spain
And again I did not
see real changes in July to November but I expected a complete change in December
when there was none.
60%
Ireland
I noted that Ireland would not feel entirely in charge of
its destiny in the latter half of 2020. And as well as Covid there was the
situation relating to the UK/EU which created just such a situation. And I
nailed the timing in December ( once again I was writing in 2016 so this was a
bit of a coup)
85%
Greece
I though the summer would see disruptive influences but
general positivity. And of course Covid hit the travel industry but Greece was
relatively protected from actual cases. By November I saw pressure on the
leadership but calmer – I am not sure this is particularly true ( though I am
limited in what information I can find). December I said would be the start of
new financial arrangements and sure enough the country sold bonds for the first
time since the 2009 crisis.
80%
Switzerland
Once again close enough and for once I predicted something
different for the country – protests in the Sept-Nov period. And indeed there
were some related to Covid restrictions.
Even though I said little else that deserves marks for the
normal quiet country -80%
Iceland
Not much of substance in my forecast – which sort of sums it
all up really. Hard to mark but an absence of events is an event so
70%
US
I said
“July and August seem to continue the themes of the last few
months and indeed may have more significant consequences for the broader
population.” Covid spread wider across the nation
“September and October represent the beginning of a turning
point of sorts. The difficulties are not exactly over but they will be
stabilising “ The run up to the election and Covid
“an outburst of anger” – in fact this is probably more to do
with the outbreak of Covid in the White House.
“November really does see the beginning of a change.” My election
prediction dated December 2016!
“December sees the last of this difficult phase as a new
approach to government and finance is in development….. 2021 really looks like
the start of a new country, but one where there is a lot of work to be
done.”
Pretty much nailed it -95%
US$
Volatility did occur in July- Oct but not as much as I
expected. November and December were better with some rise and there was a
turning point at the year end. However there were no big reorganisations etc. (
aside from the change of government).
65%
Dow
July the index was flattish as predicted. Aug-Oct saw
fluctuations but in the end no direction, however I expected more activity and
some hit to values. A rise in November to an all time high ( or as I forecast
“completely new territory” was followed by a flat December though not as
depressed as I suggested.
Moderate overall but extra points for November 85%
Nasdaq
My forecast for July-Nov
was for erratic swings and selling. We got the erratic but not the
selling- there was certainly no rout at all.
December I correctly thought would be positive
65%
Mexico
Certainly true that the government has to contend with the
ongoing ( Covid) situation in July-Sept but the people did too. Not sure there
was a peak in October/November but it was true that things did not moderate in
December
65%
Peso
I though that August and September would see the currency
protected and it was more or less flat vs the dollar at least and benefitted
from rate lowering ( the deliberate actions I mentioned).
I said October and November could be accompanied by changes
to rates or even physical currency. There were no rate changes but two new
notes were issued $100 and $1000. December was not particularly interesting
however.
70%
Brazil
I forecast August and September a sense of gradual stability
returning to the people day to day and to some extent that was true ( if you
ignore the pandemic then you get day to day normality albeit at a cost) . But
then I said “October and November see at least some signs of final economic
resolution to some issues. It is not a bad time and relative to many places is
quite calm”. But this really wasn’t the case – though I suppose to some extent
the government was pretending it was!!!
I also thought a lot of the pressure is off the country by
the year end but although things were better it is hardly that positive.
40% I always flunk
Brazil
Real
Correctly forecast that volatility would continue, albeit
more moderated between August and September. But there was less drama than I
predicted in October and November, And although there was a turning point
in December there was no big shift in
value.
60%
Venezuela
Difficult to establish real situation but I said October and
November see the situation reaching a peak as in so many countries and this was
true of all S America.
I thought December would be
rather different. I said “the new environment is characterised by
restriction for the people and the start of a new economic position but that
means hardship for those holding on to the status quo. There is some
possibility that everything has to end
in unpleasant ways in order for the new environment to flourish”. In fact Maduro was reelected
despite the ongoing activity of Guaido including direct Covid funding etc.
50% - lack of clear picture makes it hard to mark this
Bolivar
I correctly saw August and September being much like the
start of the year. But said that October and November could be the months when
things finally get resolved and a new equilibrium is reached. This could hardly
be said to be the case but I suppose it was getting there as more and more
people stopped using the currency and switched to Crypto etc.. Still fell 95%
in year but less than 2019.
I also said that December seems to be mainly a relatively
positive month, with the year end seeing a final shift as the currency finds
its balance. And while no big changes happened in December in early January
2021 allowed the use of foreign currency for daily activity.
60%
Argentina
As expected August and September continued the trajectory
with no real new developments. I said October and November would be intense but
also potentially positive months for the people despite ongoing issues of
inertia. Certainly Covid was at a high
rate but started to level off.
I then said that while the 2020 trends don’t end in December
they are drastically reduced and this leads to some shocks for the people and a
moderately tricky period. The shock stook the place of new taxes to pay for the
pandemic.
But I blew it saying the year end itself would be noticeably
uneventful when compared with other nations.
70%
Arg Peso
I thought August to September would be somewhat more moderated but this
wasn’t especially the case – the currency decline was quite even over the whole
year. I thought October and November would continue this so to some extent that
was right. December was better but a stretch to say positive.
However overall 2020 was definitely NOT the currency’s
year!!
30%
Japan
Japan didn’t do too badly covid wise from July to August which
menat it was economically in a better position and the people are more amenable
as forecast. September to November was not generally better though it was
better than most countries
December was not as significant as I expected though the
situation did change with Covid increases but more growth.
70%
Yen
As expected July to Sept saw little change. But October and
November were not much different while the forecast expected bigger shifts.
December to some extent was a new environment with a turning point.
70%
Nikkei
July to October were positive but not exceedingly so due to
the pandemic and in line with the forecast. I thought November would be about
fear and although Covid was ticking up there this barely caused a dip and
overall the index rose. I also thought December would be pivotal and it was
mostly flat.
55%
China
Correctly saw that things would be more moderated from
july-Oct with no shocks. November did see changes that would take things to a
head – the vaccine campaign and US election. December I summed up well – the
country being never so powerful but with questions over directions.
85%
Renminbi
I correctly saw the currency doing better than others in the
period June to November. And that December would be a flat wait and see month.
90%
Shanghai Comp
I was correct that July to October would see no let- up in
the themes , with investors sentiment driven. But I had expected November to be
characterised by one final push in terms of capital flows and market trends but
the overall index movements weren’t significant then ( though internally they
may have been).
December as predicted
saw the position strengthen
75%
HK$
I said that July to October sees a mix of actions to balance
things, including rate changes, possible revaluations and re-defining of pegs
etc. In fact the government intervened successively to maintain the peg.
I thought that December could be the moment a new
environment starts operating but this was not so, however it was the time that
the country started discussions about digital currency.
75%
Hang Seng
I expected July to September to be more mixed and some
destabilisation and there certainly was volatility as well as focus on new
companies. October and November I expected a boost, and this was so. December was
also positive as I expected as concerns over China regulations were overcome.
80%
Indonesia
Covid cases rose during July to September and there were
attempt to form an opposition coalition as the government seemed focussed on
economy not Covid. This was in line
with my exepectation that the government was trying to align its position. I
thought October and November would bring thins to a head with protests and sure
enough there were trade union strikes etc. Decemeber I though would see things
in the same vein though there could be changes – and in fact there was a
cabinet reshuffle in response to the challenges.
85%
Rupiah
July was the end of the volatility period expected. August
and September were unstable and did not form a trend – I said that it would be
difficult to stablish a stable value which more or less the same. The same for
October and November but this time the currency did show some trend with the
currency strengthening. I though that December would be a relatively quiet
month lack real direction and the currency was flat.
80%
South Korea
I expected August and September to be a little more
difficult and indeed cases started to rise. My comments re October and November
were about the history of corruption etc and indeed the formation of the
corruption investigation group fulfilled this. I thought that December in
contrast to many places, would have achieved its goals by the year end and with
only a contraction of 1% the country was close to the top of the developed
league.
90%
North Korea
I thought August and September would be like January and
February, but more moderated and the country announced a new missile. In
October and November I thought that the focus of the immense power seems to be
mainly on resource and economic matters with little to suggest conflict of any
kind and this was the case ( Probably due to Covid etc but impossible to say).
I thought that
December would be all about radical economic changes with a
lot of adjustment and resource challenges result and although it is difficult
to confirm this the actions of Q1 2021 seem to confirm those challenges.
70% ( cautious due to lack of info)
India
I said that in July to September there may be real
challenges for the leadership now as the people are not supportive and this is
a big opportunity for opposition and sure enough the opposition was stronger
and there were protests. October and November were less problematic than I
feared and the leadership was not
overturned. I thought that December would end with one final big bang and
although there were more protests the economy was better and the country now
the 5th largest.
70%
Rupee
As exepected July to September saw no change in the themes
of the year. There is not enough information to confirm speculative activity,
possibly attacking the currency though there were some falls. I was correct
that October and November would be much the same
December, I was correct would be quieter.
75%
Sensex
July to September was not nearly as volatile a phase as I
expected though it wasn’t suitable for long term large investment. October to
November were expected to see some stabilising factors, which make this period
more constructive and the market did rise.
December however was not the fog that I expected ( except
for me) but a quieter time – perhaps hiding that fog in inertia?
50%
Pakistan
No monthly analysis for this one, just a general comment
that the period continued to be difficult as expected with school bombings,
burning temples, international questions about human rights ( I questioned the
external relations at this time) and some rumblings of possible opposition to
government.
65% - could be higher difficult to tell
Russia
I expected that June to September would belike January and
February again not a good period. This seemed to be the case with
constitutional reform making the country more of a dictatorship and the alleged
poisoning of the opposition.
I forecast that in October to November, the situation would
be very challenging for and by this time Covid cases were rising steeply. Then
though I thought December would see the situation pared back considerably, but
not eliminated and cases were flattening as the vaccine was introduced. I don’t
think that thee was especially abrupt change at year end ( though once again I
struggle to find out anything but Covid news)
70%
Rouble
I expected an upside to the currency in July to September but
in fact it continued its trend weaker.
However I though that October and November would see the
final stage of the position with oen more push and this was true. And December
was indeed calmer with little gains or losses.
65%
Turkey
I was sort of in the right ballpark for July to September. The
whole year really has been critical with creeping government changes, The
period was better Covid wise as was October and November. But as mentioned the
government was pushing forward its policies despite this being of worry to the
people. Economically there was some recovery.
And for December I said “While the core issues that have
dominated the year remain, there is a change of mood by the end of December.
The people are feeling out of kilter with the direction of travel” the picture
continued but with Covid cases rising and this having an impact.
65% mood right but difficult to pin down actual dates.
Lira
As forecast August and September were more like January and
February with declines in the currency value. I thought that November could be a
period of some noticeable positive surprises with the currency staging a come
back. This was true in November as the economic news turned the trend. By
December I didn’t expect any major increases but some sense of relief that the
worst may be over and the currency had established a more positive trend
against the dollar at least.
80%
Saudi
I predicted August and September to be a major turning point
and Covid peaked at this time and the oil price turned a corner too. I thought
that October and November would be similar months but more determined and this seems
to have reflected the mood. I expected December to herald a new constitution or
agreement which didn’t happen though the whole year involved many peace accords
with other arab states and Israel the one with Saudi did not materialise.
60%
Israel
I thought that July to September could be just the usual
level of challenging with difficulty to find accord between the groups including
the Palestinians. There were certainly protests and issues re Covid cases in
Gaza etc. I thought that October and November might see things coming to a head
in this country with disruption between various parties. It is difficult to
assess. There were difficulties with Palestinians but also resentment from Orthodox jews re
restrictions. On the other hand there were the various accords with other
nations.
But I also said “although the issues remain in the
background ( and are likely to be
reactivated to some extent in Spring 2021) by the year end things will have
moderated somewhat. This was very prescient. I also said “there may be a new
foundation or government formed around now” and while that wasn’t the case the
Knesset dissolved due to budget disagreements.
75%
Iran
I expected surprises to continue into August and September, as
events, local or global, picked up pace.
In fact this was a tiem when there were a series of explosions at key
industrial sites attributed to Israel.
By October and November, I said things coming to a head globally
and here is no exception as Cobid cases there rose again though as I expected not
as much as in some other countries. I thought December itself could seem like a
month on the edge, as the environment changes and this, though somewhat vague
did sum up the situation.
70%
Canada
As expected July August and September were relatively quiet
months with fewer Covid cases.
October and November saw cases rising again leading as
predicted to more of a focus on the government again with some disconnect
between the people and the leadership although brief. The government survived a
confidence vote.
December was forecast to see Canada is relatively sheltered
and to some extent this was so.
80% particularly due to the govt situation.
Australia
I forecast that August and September would see the people
still able to feel optimistic and with lower cases than many developed nations
this was true. October and November I said would still be ok for the people,
though the leadership once more needs to be nimble at adapting to sudden shifts
or change will be forced on it externally. Again a fair assessment.
December sees the tricky conditions that characterised the
year continuing and there were some outbreaks e.g, leading to closure of Sydney
beaches though much of the nation was carrying on as usual. I also said “by far
the most interesting part of this picture, though, is what isn’t happening. The
end of the year looks totally calm”.
80%
South Africa
I said “August and September see a return to the mood early
in the year. It is a time when inflation may be very high” – in reality it was
Covid that was high- though inflation was moderately so then.
I thought that October and November would see huge momentum
for change, and a mixed financial outlook with both positive changes but also
continued inflationary ones. And less
good for the people as a whole though.
If anything it was a quieter period Covid wise and economically better than
earlier in the year with the manufacturing index at a 2 ½ year high.
But I said December would be more moderate though still continuing the same theme when cases
actually rose. However I did note that there could be new announcements at the
year end and this was the time of the identification of the local new variant.
75% mixed successes
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