Another country, another historical astrological reference: this time an observatory. So much knowledge in the past, lost or demoted - when it is so, so valuable.
And now the review for the last 2 months of 2018. This won’t
be too detailed as for many countries my wording was continues much the same
and actually for many places that was the reality. So this time we’ll just
focus on the highlights. Overall though it was a short period I scored quiet
highly.
UK –
I forecast a serious leadership challenge for December.
I rest my case.
A+
Sterling
Pretty much nailed Sterling too as it was variable but
relatively range-bound for much of these 2 months and there were issues
relating to the Governor.
A
FTSE
The Ftse forecast was fairly accurate too. Although December
did have an overall downward shift the main emphasis of the 2 months was flat
but lots of trade.
B
Euro
Not sure about my Euro forecast though. Certainly vs dollar
not a lot happened in the period.
C
Germany
Not sure how I did with thisThere is an ongoing trend in Germany of polarisation between far right and others which is occasionally newsworthy and the economic situation was noted as less upbeat but perhaps not as prominent as I forecast.
B
France
France on the other hand I nailed with there is still a risk
of objections taking a more militant tone during the early part of this period
at least.
A+
Spain
Spain was relatively quiet as expected but I did note that December was a time of mixed
feelings in the people and more insecurity for the leadership and Catalan
issues were newsworthy again
Italy
Again pretty much spot on with the deficit issues vs
Brussels causing continued issues but no disasters as yet.
A
Greece
The situation in Greece was better than I expected ,
however a survey in December sums up the reality:
Although Greece exited the harsh
bailout programs after eight years this August, 63 percent of respondents
expect the country to remain under strict surveillance for many years, and two
in 10 Greeks said they believe that a fourth bailout program will be signed
soon
Watch this space.
C
Ireland
The main focus news wise was not on the Republic so much as
the border and impact of Brexit. Overall the Ireland prediction was reasonable.
B
Switzerland
I did forecast some change in Swiss economic situation
although I thought inflation when it was more the slowing economy. Nevertheless
for a country where nothing usually happens this was a win on my part.
B
Iceland
Like Switzerland there is evidence of economic challenge
although whether this confirms the forecast is debateable.
B
USA
I won’t analyse my forecast in
this case I will just quote from it
“It seems the people are drawn into
the ongoing financial restriction….s and once more there is a sense of
underlying disruption, which given the conditions could also quite possibly be
financial in nature……the leadership appears set to end the year under the same
sense of insubstantiality and ineffectiveness that has characterised much of
the two years. There’s no challenge to that leadership though really- and that
in itself suggests all is not well financially”
Yep.
A+
Us$
I was unhappy about the prospects for the dollar at this
time. And certainly investors were unsurprisingly better off holding Yen.
A
Dow
I kind of got this right.
With “November and December have more drama, with some shocks and
surprises. There are still questions regarding fundamental values but there
looks like a upward move before the year end.” Although maybe I should have
made more of the downward impact of the shocks before the year end uplift.
B
Nasdaq
Overall I got this
right though again I didn’t emphasis the downside enough. I got the restrictions
in November/December and the trading
volumes and of course the overall bubble and indeed the short term picture dominating
of the longer term one though
B
Mexico
Not so good with a statement that cross border issues would
abate, they didn’t although they became an internal US issue so in one way they
did
C
Mexican peso
More or less yes. Certainly active in mid period .
B+
Venezuela
Pretty much right. Not much to say. Oil did rise for a while
B+
Bolivar
Difficult to say whether I was right about this yet but the
huge hyperinflation was only a fraction of that expected by IMF
A-
Brazil
The country did get extra exposure due to the reputation of
its new leader. Another watch this space
A-
Real
Yes, pretty much – a decline but not without some
boundaries.
Argentina
The final 2 months were more mixed. We shall see.
B+
Right on
A
Interestingly Canada’s most significant event of the period
seems to have been the Huawei arrest. Economically the country was ok.
I thought a lot may be swept under the carpet. It remains to
be seen
B
Australia
Sort of right. The economy slowed ( in areas I highlighted)
but situation still ok
C+
South africa
I can’t really assess this forecast – there is so
little information about progress
there but it seems as if the government is making some.
C.
Yes – especially the continuation of Abe’s government
A
Yes –
A-
Nikkei
More or less yes, notably the December bounce back
B+
Yes – mainly due to US issues.
AGenerally improved as expected and notably situation shifted in december
A
Shanghai Comp
More or less. Certainly a lot of trade in stocks generally
at this time and trends in Composite ore pronounced. Plus issues related to
specific companies in spotlight.
B+
HK$
Rate change December followed Fed
B.
Hang Seng
Forecast was “ …and November when there seems to be a major
tension between the direction of value of the individual components” yes big
fluctuations and tension between overall gloom and big IPOs. “December is a
month of more excitement” and yes more big fluctuations followed.
A-
Indonesia
Certainly right about current government popularity ( in
advance of 2019 elections)
Also about challenges ( corruption, religious issues)
including the attest earthquakes and tsunamis which undermine structure.
A -
Rupiah
I said “December is another difficult month to call. There
are still restrictions to manage the currency which will hold the value down,
but there are also forces that suggest it could continue to rise.” Fluctuations
led to an overall flat result
A surprising A
South Korea
I thought that the period would lack direction and this was
so with some indicators negative and others not so bad.
There were developments in the relations with the North
B-
As expected North Korea was not much in the news as it was
less probe to drama at this time.
B+
India
I struggled abit
with my India wording for these 2 month,
but actually ( as I was there at the time) it summed it up nicely. Many of the
issues were between government and RBOI
leadership. Fascinating how this shows up.
A-
rupee
The resolution of issues turned out to be the resignation of
the GovenorThe Rupee did rise but interest rates did not
A-
I am quite surprised
I got this right given the activity in
many markets. But between beginning of November and end December the Sensex did
indeed rise though not without fluctuations.
A+
Pakistan
The issues in Pakistan at this time were the blasphemy
protests. But the forecast wasn’t accurate enough to score highly.
B
Russia did indeed continue as earlier in year and yes there was oil price adjustment
A boring B+
Rouble
There was tension between the improved oild price at the
year end and the impact of US sanctions.
The rouble fell in December but rose as 2019 began.
D
Turkey
Turkey benefitted generally from its role in the events of
October. So the last 2 months were moderately ok.
B+
Lira
Pretty much right. Better but not much change.
A-
Israel
Although my Israel forecast can’t score too highly the
themes were right. Continued aggression was tempered rather by Bibi’s
situation, The US being rather distracted by other events and the changing
dynamic following October’s Saudi
escapades.
B+
Iran
There were ongoing economic protests due to the sanctions
etc, although I was right to say there were not direct challenges to the actual
government. Time is required to understand the trends.
B
Saudi
I finished my forecast for Saudi with the words “On balance
an unsatisfying end to the year”
Yep!
A
Comments