At the time of writing ( December 5th 2016),as I
predicted in 2013, it has just had a year of calm. The next few years are
expected to be more interesting, so it is worth bearing in mind the above
paragraph – when something happens it will really happen.
2017
2017 will be all about fundamental value.
However there is much to support the underlying position and
although there are some challenges ( possibly relating to other countries such as the US and possibly to the country as
a whole), I think the market will end March much where it began the year.
The themes continue right the way to June. It is possible
that there is some concern about economic conditions in the country which
causes investors to adjust their positions and leads to some pull back. I still
don’t see this as being big or long lasting though.
July and August are very quiet. Even if investor emotions
run high this won’t flow through to the total index value.
September is a month of confusion for investors, and things
might be unsettling though again this does not seem like a change in the trend.
By December things are starting to change though. Investors
are worried about the economic direction and the market may suffer as a result.
There might even be some restrictions on trading.
On the other hand there are short term boosts, some of which
are even overdone so it is still not all bad. Nevertheless investor fear is
always worth watching for.
2018 looks like being a year of adjustment.
In the first 3 months, the themes of late 2017 continue.
There is real worry now, and even the hope and faith that usually keeps the
market buoyant can be tested. Emotions are overdone and big swings of sentiment
are likely.
This might again lead to restrictions. This time in
technology.
April to June sees more of the same. As globally investors
become less concerned with growth and more with consolidation and switching to
more solid stocks. Instability and technology challenges continue and there is
a risk of a significant undermining of value.
July to September are calmer. On the one hand investors are
still worried but the practicalities seem easier and this means that trade
flows better and that leads to more optimism and trust.
I expect things to stabilise in this period.
Then in the last
months of 2018 things become quiet dramatic again.
While there is still better faith and optimism generally,
there are some notable destabilising influences. Again technology restrictions are
at play.
Trading volumes may rise gradually at first, but them become
extreme.
By the end of 2018 large amounts of money and shares are
changing hands.
2019 starts with more fears, and uncertainty but things are
more moderate than at the end of 2018.
There is some inertia in fact in January and February.
March to June sees caution be the watchword. Not much will
happen and the market will tread water.
July through to September sees more inertia and more fear.
Though there may be some positive economic news to lift spirits briefly.
Then in October and November, we see more worry and once
more an increase in trading volumes.
This might have to do with China as a whole taking control
of a global situation and thus securing some hope for the market.
December ends the year on a very worried note though. There may be large volumes of trade again, and a rush into
technology and communications stocks again.
2020
2020 is a very serious year when the country and the market
is quite controlled.
January sees a key turning point as global issues are
addressed by China.
There is a short period of hope and optimism.
February sees more of the same but with extremes of
sentiment.
There doesn’t seem to be a clear direction just yet, lots of
gambling on the future really.
In March through to June, there are very big movements of
capital which affect the market. The key is whether the organisations are well
funded or pressurised with debt and whether they are influenced by the
international changes.
I would not be surprised if this lead to major increases in
value overall.
July to October sees no let- up in the themes , and indeed
investors are likely to be more rather than less driven by sentiment now.
It’s a tough time, but there are opportunities for those who
can take the sensible options.
November is characterised by one final push in terms of
capital flows and market trends. Things are steadily becoming clearer.
Then December sees the culmination of events as the market
seems to reach a certain level of maturity. This is not without difficulties,
but there is enough consolidation of investment to see the position strengthen
through the final month.
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