2017
2017 looks to be an exciting year for the currency even
before we know in which direction.
January to March sees a repeat of some of the conditions of
2016, and if that period is to be relied on then we will see more weakness in
the Renminbi over these three months. However there is also potential for
restriction on its freedoms.
April through to June is a time of little direction, though
perhaps accompanied with volatility. There are inflationary pressures which might
lead to concern about debt levels.
In August and September there are still background economic
issues pulling on the currency, despite there being the potential for a sudden
buying spree.
On balance though by the end of the period I would expect
some upturn in value.
October to December is a time of significant activity
relating to the currency. When investors will be talking about it and when
there may be interest rate changes. While we still have background strain and
weakness caused by external forces, there is a combination of factors which
should lead to more strength. There is certainly likely to be a lot of trade in
the currency and for the most part it has appeal , even if this might be
overestimated. At the end of the year there may be an extra boost in its
attractiveness.
2018
2018 sees a shift in mood and the need for adjustment to
protect the long term reputation.
January may be quiet, but around February is a key time when
I expect there to be a lot of interest in the currency from both the Chinese
themselves and other investors. Although there are some challenges and even
possible restrictions on the level of trade, I expect the balance of trend to
be upwards.
March, April and Mare are less interesting. The same
conditions continue but they are reduced in intensity, I don’t expect much
break in the trend, but I don’t expect much action either.
From June to September that changes. We are back to more
challenging conditions, and indeed they are magnified now. Don’t expect this to
be good for the currency.
Although there are still positives to be had, the feeling
that trade is restricted and there may be underlying weakness means that
any upturns in value are likely to be
short lived
October to December is another key quarter for investors.
There is a focus on debt ( at home and away) and how it affects the value of
the currency.
Of course there are still things happening globally that
make the Renminbi a trade worth making despite the offsetting restrictive
conditions.
I think there will be a major turning point in
December
Having said that, not
much has changed in early 2019. We still have more of the same themes.
Now however we have competing forces, so that the trend is
lost in volatility. On balance though I think there will be an increase in
value for the currency now .
April to June is more mixed and distinctly less stable
Although there is still momentum on the upside, there is also the potential for
all sorts of shocks and surprises, some not as good as others.
July to September sees a more moderate situation. But there
is still severe instability which will lead to the need for adjustment and rate
changes.
Although there are positives still ,I feel that the
negatives win out here.
October and November see currency trade hit fever pitch.
More news and rate changes, and a string of events and
decisions in China and overseas impact on the level of the currency.
Expect huge swings in value before things start to settle
down.
December is more of a month of adjustment, although there
are continued surprises and volatility;
policy decisions and rate changes are slowly starting to adjust the position.
Even the most dramatic changes will be managed and
consolidated into something more stable now.
2020 is another year of active trade and exchange.
January still sees continued swings, and concern with
finding the right level, but there is less pressure than in much of 2019.
There are big forces at play but they are not pushing the
currency in any one direction now.
February sees more of the same.
Expect volatility and adjustment but little trend, despite
signs that the currency is a better bet than many.
March to May sees more adjustment, especially of interest
rates and other policy measures to contain the uncertainty.
There is one final external shock to rock the boat a little
more but things seems to be more settled.
June through to November is a long period of adjustment and
realignment. There is much negotiation and decision making affecting the
currency in relation to is partners – the outcome of which looks positive.
Again the Renminbi is doing better than some other currencies.
December is a month of wait and see, as the mood changes and
the impact of new policies and rates is felt. But I don’t expect any particular
trend to emerge this month.
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