Obviously 2016 has been a pivotal year for the UK.
As I correctly forecast back in 2013, the summer of 2016 saw “a change in the way
the UK people relate…… that will have a permanent impact on the way the country
operates in the future” Pretty good going for a forecast at a time when the
referendum wasn’t even a twinkle in Cameron’s eye.
Since the referendum vote, there has been a lot of talk and
background stuff but nothing very concrete.
2017
I don’t expect that to change much in January and February
2017. Things are relatively calm and stable then. There is some financial
restriction but nothing new or surprising.
But as we already know, the departure from the EU is due to
be triggered in March. This will be the start of some fundamental soul
searching by the population about what the changes will mean for the country.
Financial restriction continues throughout March to May but
there is a brief feeling of elation as those in favour of the separation see it
becoming a reality.
There is some uncertainty about the country’s identity
around June and July, but the mood is reasonably positive still.
August may be more tricky, There may be minor disruptions
and a slightly more challenging situation for the leadership.
September sees the beginning of a new phase, likely to be
somewhat nationalistic, perhaps boosted by the media.
Although the leadership must execute a balancing act to keep
things on an even keel, there may be a
slight uptick in the currency and the economic position seems somewhat improved.
However this is a time of transition and despite the
positives there is also a potential for some conflict as opinions get out of
hand.
The year ends with continued balancing of priorities by the
leadership ( which may be accused of weakness throughout the year) and the
start of more concrete changes.
Expect freedoms to be limited in some way, and for a lot of
hot air to be produced in some quarters, posturing seems to be the name of the
game now. But there are a lot of details to be sorted and this is somewhat
overwhelming and inevitably someone will complain.
2018
2018 is the year of
negotiations and contracts
But it is also the year when the UK most feels the impact of
the 2016 vote. The whole year is a very difficult time for the population as a
whole ( even if there are winners as well as losers). I see the leadership as
being very bogged down in the details still between January and March. I also predict that there will be economic
and currency consequences once more.
There may even be inflationary concerns.
The pressure on the country does not let up in April and
May. A brief positive economic surprise is offset by changes that lead to a
major 30 year shift in the economic conditions which doesn’t look good for the
majority of people. There seems to be some continued inflationary pressure
which likely isn’t good for individual incomes nor property values either. The
UK may extol its independence but the reality is taking some adjusting too.
June through to August are a time when there is opposition
to the leadership from the people. There are some very challenging
undercurrents.
However there are some positive steps and this is actually a
time when much can be accomplished in the way of changes, provided that efforts
are not wasted on debating numerous pointless details.
September and October don’t really see much change, though
some of the pressure is off slightly.
It is so difficult to keep everyone happy though and there
is the continued risk of getting bogged
down. Brief optimism may be followed by overdone pessimism by the next month.
November sees the challenging conditions that characterise
the year, and that are already described, broadly continue
December sees a return to the conditions suggested by the
events of April and May.
The month may bring serious leadership challenges and a much
less conciliatory mood all round; there is a potential for some previously
supressed rage to explode.
2019
January and February are months where it is a case of 2
steps forward, one step back, as economically and otherwise the country and
government tries to adjust.
There may be some new big announcements regarding the future
government. We may possibly also start to see events relating to the Royal
family coming to the fore; although the latter will not peak until 2020.
The period March to June is quite full on. Economically
things are very mixed, with some recessionary conditions but also some moderate
inflation. There is also a chance of some dramatic swings in sentiment relating
to the national identity.
It is difficult to overstate how important this period is
for the people of the UK, and how much they are being observed globally, but also the difficulties and restrictions
that are resulting from this.
There are likely to be key issues relating trade deals and
to transport and communication, particularly relating to flights.
Although the continuing theme of dark transformation does
not disappear in July, the overall mood is relatively light and economically
things are relatively stable.
August to October is more tricky, with inflationary
conditions returning, and the country generally revisiting the debates of
January/February time. Announcements re the Royal family are again likely.
November is another moderate month, with only some worrisome
inflation to concern us.
December see the problems of May/June revisited. Things are generally
rather unstable.
2020
2020 is a year when I expect a change at the head of the
Royal family. It is already due to be an election year ( although it is quite
possible we will have had an election earlier in the period)
January starts with difficulties, not just in the UK but
globally. There could be a turning point in economic matters as there is a lot
of trade relating to the country, possibly due to property market difficulties.
February through to April is mixed. The focus of the people could
be less on nationalistic matters and more on royal ones.
There is also another period of deception and
misinformation, although this is likely to be the best thing for the nation as
a whole. Some of the difficult conditions of the last 2 years remain and are
emphasised again -
Expect rapidly changing conditions.
May and June see, for the most part, a buoyant mood. The
country is in the spotlight for the Euro cup and there are obviously security
and other issues associated with this so the mood is tempered by some
seriousness.
This continues in July. Of course expectations are at a
ridiculous high ( as ever), but, although there may be some disruptive
influences the overall picture looks good for the period. There is a lot of
excitement anyway.
Economically things are mixed.
September through to December sees another shift as we close
the door on the last 40 years and move into a new economic environment. It is a
tough period as everything that is taken for granted is changing.
November sees the people over-reacting somewhat
( I do not mean in an aggressive way in this case), whereas December sees that
freedom comes with economic costs and impact on overall wealth.
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