Happy New Year.
Here belatedly, as an edit, is the rather reduced review of 2016:
UK
Very good re Brexit ( prediction was made before referendum
was even announced. And mentions of
currency. Would score higher but didn’t identify change in leader
85%
Sterling
Overstated volatility March. Good for key months of July to
October. Some explanations wrong at year
end.
70%
FTSE
Ok, but difficulties overstated at beginning of year. Ok
over summer
70%
Euro
Not a great deal forecast but then not a great deal
happened. So difficult to score high on this.
65%
France
Identified time of attacks but didn’t mention outright.
Identified general political situation. Growth poor though.
80%
Germany
Not much happened
despite increasing power of right, although mood changed.
75%
Italy
Correct about 3rd quarter being better than
expected and that signals would conflict in October and that December would be
about the people wanting change which turned out to be a referendum vote on
government
75%
Spain
Despite Spain not having an effective political structure
for most of the year it improved its economy in line with the forecast. I’ve
awarded the score because it has done better trend-wise than would have been
expected in 2013, so my generally accurate forecast is noteworthy.
80%
Ireland
Although I wasn’t wrong on Ireland I can’t give a decent
score as it is a bit of a mixed bag with the taz issue and Brexit knockon.
70%
Greece
OK, nor bad but it was a year when not enough happened to
merit a high score. Government did not change in Dec but Nov did see cabinet
overhaul.
70%
Switzerland
Not much happened in Switzerland but I’m giving a good score
for getting January right and the referendum question.
80%
Iceland
Picked up government difficulties good for election and interesting
climate stuff
80%
USA
Although I talked more about debt than was really the case,
the issues identified were particularly accurate as was the identification of
the “change” at election time- and the situation that followed in December.
Remember this was forecast in 2013 when
we had no idea of who would run for president.
90%
Us$
Did well in forecasts around April, July ( following UK
Brexit) and November
85%
Dow
Ok in early part of the year. 50/50 in summer. Poor later on
– but this was qualified with clear reservations.
60%
Nasdaq
January was off target. Rest of year quite good
80%
Canada
The economic conditions of the first part of the year were
well indicated and yet the forecast economically for November was positive and
Q3 growth announced then was good. Nothing too significant was forecast for the
leadership either.
The forecast also stated that relations with other countries
are highlighted at the year end, certainly the case with the change of US
government.
Possibly deserves more than the score below but can’t be
bothered to look up more details.
80%
Mexico
I highlighted April May as a time of challenge but failed (
not surprisingly) to identify this as being the threats by Trump of the
wall. I did make the connection between
this time and November though and the consequent political and economic drama.
And the need to work harder on the economics around August ( there was a downturn)
Other than this I had the country down for a quiet year
which was more or less right.
85%
Mexican Peso
Totally nailed the Peso right through year- though
volatility was perhaps less than I might have thought.
90%
Venezuela
Probably the forecast for here was more positive than it
warranted. Whilst there was no major shift in government or indeed the economic
path, I don’t feel I identified the seriousness of the situation
55%
Bolivar
I focussed on a new currency in my forecast. While I was
right about the December timing –it wasn’t billed (no pun intended) as a new
currency rather as new BIGGER notes for the old one. Obviously the need for it
was inflation which I had already identified. And I assumed November indicators
would be speculation rather than just faster inflation. So very good but could
have been even better.
90%
Brazil
I got some stuff right for Brazil, though I focussed too
much on the Olympics and not enough on the leadership as Rousseff was
impeached. It si always the country I struggle with and the fact that I didn’t
say things were great is a vast improvement. But we can’t score particularly
high on this one
50%
Real
January ok but
positive sentiment started in Feb not March ( still within acceptable
bounds for long term forecasting). Ok for mid year and identified weakness in
November and okish at year end. But
missed some of the reasoning. Though identified that the November position was
related to other countries just not how.
Could have been really good but was just good.
80%
Argentina
Generally this forecast was right. The new president came in
and people were optimistic, but then a series of rapid policy actions were
perhaps felt to be a step too far by mid year . I also correctly timed the debt
negotiation and new issue in the first half. But I overestimated the
effectiveness of the policies by October
but got the doubts right at year end.
80%
Argentine Peso
Although the Peso fell in 2016, this was mainly in the first
few months. The rest of the year was about adjustment and actually, despite the
inflation in the country, the currency did as I anticipated stabilise by the
year end.
I’m frankly surprised I got this right. Though I did miss
the new bigger denomination notes that were issued.
80%
Japan
OK, extra marks for earthquake prediction ( Feb-May) actual was in April. And repeat risks in November.
Difficult to establish political and economic progress though so not possible
to mark that higher.
80%
Yen
Totally back to front. Some marks for identifying turning
points in trends – potentially making it closer to 50/50 as I had doubts.
30%
Nikkei
Ok but understated rises in latter part of the year and
overstated in earlier part. Turning
points are easier than direction, direction is easier than magnitude to
predict.
70%
China
Although forecast was broad- very accurate in terms of
leadership difficulties, capital controls and the year end situation after US
elections.
85%
Renminbi
Almost all wrong
10%
Shanghai Composite
Other than timing of falls in January ( I said Dec 2015 so
within 3 month timeframe) this was good. I had December as very volatile when
it was late November early December but again this is within the timeframe for
these forecasts.
80% January was off
target. Rest of year quite good
Hong Kong $
Another HK$ failure for me. It still continues, though
comments about external affects were correct and save us from a zero score!
20%
Hang Seng
Not bad for first half of year, very accurate for second
half.
75%
S Korea
A high score here for getting the leadership issue nailed,
especially given the strength in the earlier part of the 4 year period.
N Korea
The year was characterised by nuclear tests and sanctions.
The forecast identified internal strengthening, some surprises and threats.
Little else was reported on – The forecast was reasonable in this context but not stunning.
65%
Indonesia
Not a country to which the media here pays much attention so
hard to mark. However it is possible to confirm that there was unrest due to
disagreements relating to Islam and that there was a short term focus on
inflation in September. There were no floods but there were volcanic eruptions.
An unexpected interest rate cut in October also provided the good financial
news referred to. The forecast missed the December earthquake though.
75%
Rupiah
Not too bad- got the main bigger trends right and the
reduction in volatility. Missed a short term blip in March but otherwise well
summarised.
80%
India
Not wrong nor particularly enlightening. A bit too vague.
But did note the Q3 international relations matters
60%
Rupee
Because I came close to totally nailing n 2013 the
demonetarisation event of 8/11/2016 which was top secret until it happened. The
real power of astrology when done right.
90%
Sensex
Good assessment overall. Missed extent of fall in November
and June direction but did well otherwise
80%
Pakistan
Very good timing of border conflict, which, to be fair, was
the main purpose of including the country-
though some of the rest was a bit wishy washy.
80%
Russia
Not a bad attempt as it correctly focussed on Russia’s
position globally and not so much on internal matters. Particular bits of interest were the shifting
environment of the last quarter due to the US
and the time around September when the depletion of the country’s
reserves was noted.
80%
Rouble
Not a bad forecast. Reasonably good on timing things
but not enough emphasis on the January
rises which was far greater than any other sentiment. Correct to note a change in the last 2
months which shows up well vs Sterling
75%
Turkey
Significant wrong in
some areas- although I identified shocks in July and strength of leadership I
misinterpreted how this would play out badly. Economically ok
70%- possibly more
for specifics despite missing general tone
Lira
OK god in some part of the year but awful in last 2 months.
50%
Israel
Not a great forecast , but then on the surface not a lot
happened in the country in 2016,. The
prediction did mention things escalating in the summer and there were indeed a series of rocket
attacks on Gaza then. But September
wasn’t particularly noteworthy at all.
60%
Iran
A reasonably good attempt. Identififying continued changes,
the support for the leadership in April-May when the moderate government was
strengthened and more women won seats.
The August conflict was more moderate than the forecast
implied and related to Russian missiles on Iranian soil. The focus in December
was on Syria and sanctions. It is difficult to substantiate some of the
other remarks due to lack of media
coverage so marks can’t be as high as they might have done
70%
Saudi Arabia
Hard to mark SA too as the media rarely reports the detail
of the internal mood etc. However opinion pieces such as one in the Washington
Post in September seem to support what I have said entirely. I can’t give more
marks though as this is not pure fact based.
80%
South Africa
Another country where the real facts are hard to come by.
For sure there is ongoing questions over the leadership and challenge from the
opposition. But 2016 was not especially
notable for this. And although mining difficulties continue there was nothing
like 2014.
Emphasis on education in October was true but the protests
by students in the short term are not as positive as I assumed.
In the absence of any evidence to support other statements
I’ll give it only
65%
Australia
I think my forecast for Australia was harsher than the
reality, although it did indicate a lack of decisiveness in July august which
followed the elections and reduced control for the leadership. It also
suggested that the industries that had been so beneficial before might see a
shift and this was certainly the case ( though saved by some commodities price increases
later in the year) with Q3 showing a contraction as well. So ok but not great.
Score must reflect all the things that didn’t happen too- e.g change of
government etc.
70%
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