However it would be wrong to say that the country is
completely out of the economic woods, and recent stats have been down beat.
As 2017 starts there is no real change to the picture.
Indeed there is a feeling of lack of direction ( perhaps reflecting the fact
that 2 main markets – US and UK are undergoing unprecedented political
changes). However there is nothing to suggest, on balance, that the first two
months of the year will be anything other than buzzing.
April to June is likely to be quieter. But although there
may be some difficult with structural financial issues the overall situation
remains positive.
July and August don’t change this significantly. There is
even a time when the leadership makes substantial headway.
September and October are slightly more mixed, some
indicators are positive, some negative. But it continues to be a moderately
good year and indeed the 2 months end on a bit of a high.
The final two months are still ok though there is, again,
some concern about the lack of direction in the longer term.
January and February are a little tougher for the people. We
see the country reflecting on the last 3 decades, both the growth and
subsequent problems and asking “where next?” It could be quite tricky period with questions over continued
austerity and some slight feeling of misalignment.
March and April see the theme ongoing, but there is no sense
of significant difficulties. There is more evidence that the economic patterns
of the period since the early 1990s are closing and a new one emerging; this
will be slightly less acquisitive and more accumulative.
May to July sees some dissatisfaction amongst the population. There are some surprising economic shifts. It is a time when the government has to work extra hard to
assert its policies but, other than the continued question of debt, there is no
reason to think that they will be unable to achieve what is required.
The opportunities afforded to the leadership continue. But
August and September are months when communication is at the fore-front of the
country’s concerns. There are both breakthroughs and obstacles.
October and November see the government again pushing
forward against some restriction as well as continued economic surprises- these
may relate to funding flows- but the general outcome seems to be for the
benefit of the country.
December is a mixed month, in the main quieter, although
with a tendency to over-exuberance at times.
January and February 2019 seem like the beginning of a
tougher period, when there is a creeping feeling amongst the people of not
being control of their destiny. There are some recessionary indicators as well
as debt questions to contend with.
March to May is a bit better. The people seem to be more
positive about the economic foundations, despite the background worries
mentioned in the early part of the year.
There is a real sense of confusion at leadership level-
perhaps even some deception. As a result there is an impetus for breaking away
from the past now.
June until August sees more of the confusion surrounding
leadership. There may be adjustments to the balance of power and the government
is inclined to take big decisions regarding the country’s economic future now.
It remains to be seen whether these are the right ones.
September to November see the people in a feisty mood but
not opposed to the leadership.
There are still ongoing economic adjustments to be made and
although there may be good news there is also, once again, a tendency to take
risks to create a new environment.
December is exciting as it sees changes on a wider global
scale that will impact the country over the next decade but the months itself
sees no special developments in terms of government or people directly.
January 2020 sees the continuation of the wider changes, and
now the people are feeling the effects of not being in charge again.
There are some surprises, once more, as new economic
policies and events start to bed in but the government seems to be riding the
crest of a wave now with both support from the people and the right conditions
for development.
Although there are some developments and especially some
exciting news in February, the overall conditions are similar to January.
Perhaps there is a bit of excess misplaced optimism now as well.
March to July is the first part of an almost year long
change. The period feels a little different to the start of the year as the
question of debt becomes more important to the people than the question of
control. Once more there is a sense of inertia within the government as changes
seem to be fast and furious but still outside their control.
In the second part of the big 2020 phase, from August to
November the mood changes to one of optimism and hope. The government and the
people share the same feelings of expectation although they don’t necessarily
have an outlet for them ( i.e they are still not in entirely in charge of their
own destiny ).
The year ends with the people adjusting to the changes and
to new relationships with the outside world. There is still some feeling of
having lost power over their destiny but the changes are being embraced by the
government and the end of the year seems to be characterised by the new
relationships with partners etc. and at this stage there look to be more
benefits than not.
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