I usually follow my Euro forecast with some of the main
participating countries, but this time I decided to fast track Greece as,
let’s be honest, it is still the country most likely to default and be forced
to leave. However I don’t believe that that per se would mean the end of the
Euro, nevertheless it would precipitate another crisis. So let’s see when that
might occur. [I am posting it now in roughly the order I usually do though as things don't totally kick off in 2017]
2017
Well, even the beginning of 2017 isn’t looking great with a
return to the challenges of last April at least. There will be strong forces of
disruption.
Added to which there are some fairly dark sentiments at this
time.
From March to June, however, the situation evolves somewhat.
And although there are those who are keen to break away , there are others that
are prepared to work with what exists; there seem to be some alignment between
people and leadership.
Expect a lot of talking but not so much action.
July and August see a continuation of this, and now there
may well be some challenges to the leadership. A rocky time.
September and October see a return to the instability of the
first two months, but now accompanied by attempts to undermine debates and
agreements.
The two months end with a definite clash with partners or
other countries, either the EU or Turkey spring to mind.
November and December see a change of mood, with heightened
emotions amongst the population.
It is another phase of working out the differences between 2
factions, one wanting independence and the other preferring the status quo.
2018
That is easier in March and April when the full impact of
debt and its associated restrictions is felt.
There is another phase where separation talk comes to a
head.
May and June are once more about the challenges the country
faces.
There is much talk about ideal situations, currencies, the
possibility of inflation to erode debt.
There may be some need
to crackdown on protest.
July to September basically sees a continuation of the
themes of the year.
There is a lot of concern about long term recessionary
conditions and their impact and by the end of the 3 months there may be renewed
enthusiasm at government level.
October and November are high pressure months where there is
still pressure to break away from external restrictions.
It is a difficult time when there may be protests and
problems for the government and when things can easily escalate out of hand.
Debt renegotiation may be attempted now.
December is a less
critical month, but there is no let up really. Emotions in the population run high.
2019
January and February 2019 see the country’s difficulties
once more in focus.
But hopes of resolution are dampened.
March through to May sees a change of emphasis and threats
to the leadership which may be completely undermined this year.
Restrictions are being felt too keenly and there is
increasingly pressure internally and externally.
June to August is the beginning of radical change. When the
leadership is likely to be overturned and the country become more independent.
If I were to put a date on a separation from the Euro it would be between now
and the end of the year. At the very least the country harks back to the time
of late 1930s and the Metaxas regime.
September and October continue similar themes, as the
impetus for changing relationships continues.
November is milder. Debt is still an important
consideration. There are restrictions on communication, trade and exchange but,
on balance, it isn’t as confrontational as the last few months have been.
December sees the country noticeably suffering from
financial restrictions and continued pressure on the leadership. There is some
hope that change will bring better times though this may well be misplaced. If
the country leaves the Euro there will be a new currency regime now.
2020 is a year when money and cash flow is likely to be all important.
There is unlikely to be a worse time to be the leaders in
Greece than in early 2020. The difficulties are hard and unpleasant.
In March there is a completely new environment to content
with.
In April and May the situation is mixed. There are
distinctly difficult situations for the country/people, although hope of
improvement may prevail. There is once again an attempt to unseat the
government/leader.
June and July are months when once more Greece will be in
the global news for both issues relating to the political leadership and on the
financial picture. The real picture is still mixed though there is huge
expectation of potential improvement.
August and September really see little change. There is
focus on ensuring equality, and continued disruptive influences which make the
leaders’ position extremely difficult, but there is also huge faith and
optimism for the future.
October is not significant as overall the themes continue. Greece is still a key global focus.
November is much calmer, but there is still pressure on the
leadership which could change again.
December, however, is the beginning of a new
financial arrangement, where the people start to adjust to new circumstances.
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