Greece 2017-2020

 

I usually follow my Euro forecast with some of the main participating countries, but this time I decided to fast track Greece as, let’s be honest, it is still the country most likely to default and be forced to leave. However I don’t believe that that per se would mean the end of the Euro, nevertheless it would precipitate another crisis. So let’s see when that might occur. [I am posting it now in roughly the order I usually do though as things don't totally kick off in 2017]
2017
 
Well, even the beginning of 2017 isn’t looking great with a return to the challenges of last April at least. There will be strong forces of disruption.
Added to which there are some fairly dark sentiments at this time.
From March to June, however, the situation evolves somewhat. And although there are those who are keen to break away , there are others that are prepared to work with what exists; there seem to be some alignment between people and leadership.
Expect a lot of talking but not so much action.
July and August see a continuation of this, and now there may well be some challenges to the leadership. A rocky time.
September and October see a return to the instability of the first two months, but now accompanied by attempts to undermine debates and agreements.
The two months end with a definite clash with partners or other countries, either the EU or Turkey spring to mind.
November and December see a change of mood, with heightened emotions amongst the population.
It is another phase of working out the differences between 2 factions, one wanting independence and the other preferring the status quo.
2018
 
The first two months of 2018 see increasing focus on the difficulties in the country and on the difficult economic conditions. It is difficult to find common ground between the people and the leadership.
That is easier in March and April when the full impact of debt and its associated restrictions is felt. 
There is another phase where separation talk comes to a head.
May and June are once more about the challenges the country faces.
There is much talk about ideal situations, currencies, the possibility of inflation to erode debt.
There may be some need  to crackdown on protest.
July to September basically sees a continuation of the themes of the year.
There is a lot of concern about long term recessionary conditions and their impact and by the end of the 3 months there may be renewed enthusiasm at government level.
October and November are high pressure months where there is still pressure to break away from external restrictions.
It is a difficult time when there may be protests and problems for the government and when things can easily escalate out of hand.
Debt renegotiation may be attempted now.
 December is a less critical month, but there is no let up really. Emotions in the population run high.
 
2019
 
January and February 2019 see the country’s difficulties once more in focus.
But hopes of resolution are dampened.
March through to May sees a change of emphasis and threats to the leadership which may be completely undermined this year.
Restrictions are being felt too keenly and there is increasingly pressure internally and externally.
June to August is the beginning of radical change. When the leadership is likely to be overturned and the country become more independent. If I were to put a date on a separation from the Euro it would be between now and the end of the year. At the very least the country harks back to the time of late 1930s and the Metaxas regime.
September and October continue similar themes, as the impetus for changing relationships continues.
November is milder. Debt is still an important consideration. There are restrictions on communication, trade and exchange but, on balance, it isn’t as confrontational as the last few months have been.
December sees the country noticeably suffering from financial restrictions and continued pressure on the leadership. There is some hope that change will bring better times though this may well be misplaced. If the country leaves the Euro there will be a new currency regime now.
2020 
2020 is a year when money and cash flow  is likely to be all important.
There is unlikely to be a worse time to be the leaders in Greece than in early 2020. The difficulties are hard and unpleasant.
 There is also an escalation of protests and debates again as the situation changes quickly.
In March there is a completely new environment to content with.
In April and May the situation is mixed. There are distinctly difficult situations for the country/people, although hope of improvement may prevail. There is once again an attempt to unseat the government/leader.
June and July are months when once more Greece will be in the global news for both issues relating to the political leadership and on the financial picture. The real picture is still mixed though there is huge expectation of potential improvement.
August and September really see little change. There is focus on ensuring equality, and continued disruptive influences which make the leaders’ position extremely difficult, but there is also huge faith and optimism  for the future.
October is not significant as overall the themes continue.  Greece is still a key global focus.
November is much calmer, but there is still pressure on the leadership which could change again.
 
December, however, is the beginning of a new financial arrangement, where the people start to adjust to new circumstances.

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