The trouble with Germany in the last few years is, that
relative to many other places, not a lot has happened. Despite discontent with
the Greek bailout and excess refugees, Germany is still a beacon of stability.
And ironically, for a forecaster that is rather depressing. But at least it
will be a good guide to Europe as a whole as we can’t rely on individual
countries or the Euro (which might be affected by global debt and currency
issues) to do this.
2017
Obviously January and February are not too far away ( as I write this on 13
December 2016), so we don’t expect too much change then. Certainly there are
few long term issues to contend with, though there are some short term economic
concerns.
March and April actually see a calming down of some of the
broader discontent that may have dominated the last 2-3 years.
However there are the beginnings of a more idealistic yet
nationalistic mood in some areas which could become problematic. There is also
the issue of an expectation gap in the economic statistics.
Nevertheless the months of May and June are, relatively,
without incident.
July is more tricky with some disconnect between government
and people. But on balance it is not too bad.
August and September are the run up to the elections. The
country still has the drive to move ahead, although it is still plagued by that
expectations gap,
There is no big change for October. No obvious evidence of a
change of leader. If that does happen it won’t be via a battle but rather a
retirement and passing to a suitable follower. Things seem to relatively calm still.
November is a little more difficult. There is again an issue
with the nationalistic tendency, but it is relatively isolated from the
mainstream. The other possibility is of course external economic shocks. There
may also be brief high emotions among the people for other reasons although
this is not indicative of long term events.
December is for the most part a positive event, with
population and government aligned and with enough evidence of positive economic
development to suggest that the country is on solid footing for the immediate
future.
January and February 2018 seem to have a change of feel to
them. An economic cycle, that started with the fall of the Berlin Wall, is
ending and a new one beginning. There are new questions about how the country
will face the next decades and global challenges. There are questions over
currency and debt as well as social equality.
March to May is a more mixed time. The people are relatively
content but some difficult news in
relation to economic statistics or issues relating to communications in general
lead back to questions about where the country is heading.
There is a sense of real dissatisfaction, particularly
relating to debt or banking matters.
June to October has no one particular theme, but it does
look like there is much more going on and that there are a lot of financial
issues to face ( possibly this might relate to bail-outs elsewhere again).
October itself is an unsettled but not particularly eventful
time.
November and December are characterised by a highly
motivated people, which is fine if it is harnessed in a positive way, less so
if they are misguided which might be the case. It is another month when there
may be some unexpected announcements, although on the other hand there is
ongoing stability in the background.
It may be a time when Germany is very much in the global
public eye.
January and February 2019 are really months when the issues
of 2018 are reviewed. There is once again an excitable vibe to the mood of the
people, perhaps encouraged by further challenging stats or announcements. It is possible that there are particular
challenges for the leader at this time.
March and April are likely to be quite difficult with issues
relating to nationalism and protectionism at the fore.
There are continuing issues re banking and debt, with some
worries about recession. However there are also changes that definitely benefit
the economy in the longer term
May and June continues the ongoing themes already discussed
It is a time when the
people are determined to get their view heard.
There may be a brief unsettled time or a radical shift in
sentiment
July to September may even see some elements of the
population protesting, though their ability to do so is restricted.
Financial restriction may also be experienced now, perhaps
as a result of events elsewhere rather than Germany itself.
October and November
see this unsettled phase continuing
Although events take things forward more towards a
conclusion.
December sees the focus on the people of Germany. Indeed
this whole period since the summer seems to be about the people rather than the
government.
The month is critical for economic and political future
development.
As we know by now, 2020 starts with major global shifts.
It appears to be part of an ongoing critical time in Germany
too with major focus now not just on the population but on the leadership as
well. By February though the focus
shifts back to financial matters.
March to July is a long period when there are real global
political issues relating to protectionism and nationalism and which seem to
involve the country setting the pace. There is a very forceful feel to this
period.
There is also a return to some of the more unsettled mood
internally which leads to evolutionary changes ( as opposed to disruptive) in
the underlying foundations and leadership
August to October sees a continuation of the themes of the
year.
There are continued changes affecting the whole country
November is a quieter
month as things seem to bed in. Of course there are still ongoing issues, they
just don’t seem to be so immediate now.
December seems to bear this out. There is a total shift in
emphasis by the end of the month.
After some key announcements the country seems to fully
embrace a drive towards its goals.
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